winqsb dalam pengambilan keputusan

7/27/2019 WinQSB Dalam Pengambilan Keputusan

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Ani Rahmawati 4410215035

Ika Utami Wahyu Ningsih 4410215036

Nurul Hikmah Wati 4410215040

Rennta Christina 4410215041

Syafrulian 4410215044

WinQSB dalam PengambilanKeputusan



WinQSB WinQSB merupakan sistem interaktif untuk

membantu pengambilan

keputusan yang berisi

alat yang berguna untuk

memecahkan berbagai jenis masalah dalam bidang

riset operasi. Sistem ini terdiri

dari modul-modul yang berbeda,

satu untuk setiap model jenis

atau masalah.



Decision Tree Analysis Metode grafis yang memperlihatkan

cabang keputusan (decision branch)dan kejadian tak pasti (chance)

Notasi Decision Tree Analysis:

Decision Node

Chance Node

Kejadian tidak diikuti kejadian lain:terminal node (Event)

Tiap node bisa memiliki nilai payoff

+ payoff: penerimaan - payoff: biaya

Pemilihan keputusan terbaik diambildari nilai ekspektasi tertinggi

Decision Tree Analysis



Decision Analysis Management decides to categorize the condition of the market (i.e. the

level of demand) as either strong (S) or weak (W). The following table

presents the payoff table and management's best estimate of the

probability of a strong or weak market. The payoffs in the body are the

net profits measured in millions of dollars. They were generated by

carefully calculating the sales, revenues, and costs associated with

each decision-state of nature combination. Payoffs are in million dollars.



Decision Analysis



Run the program module for "Decision Analysis" ofWinQSB. Select "New problem" from the pull down menu of"File" in the menu bar. Make the entries as in the Display 1.



Change the name of nodes to fit this problem. You can do so byselecting each cell and typing in. Then enter the problem dataas in the Display 2. Save the problem.



Select the "Solve and Analysis" option in the menu bar. Thesoftware will solve the problem and provides a detailed solutionas in Display 3.



You can select one more options, decision tree graph, from the pulldown menu of "Results" in the menu bar. Notice that if you selectdecision tree, a window (Decision Tree Setup) will appear that providesyou options for how you would like the tree to look like. Make sure you

play around with it for different configurations. Then Display 4 willappear and you can print it out.



Markov Process Definisi 1:

Sebuah proses stokastik adalah urutan peristiwa dimana hasilpada setiap tahap tergantung pada beberapa kemungkinan.

Definisi 2:Sebuah proses Markov adalah proses stokastik dengan sifatsebagai berikut:

1. Jumlah hasil yang mungkin terbatas.

2. Hasil pada setiap tahap hanya bergantung pada hasil dari

tahap sebelumnya.3. Probabilitas yang konstan sepanjang waktu.



Markov Process Consider two stocks. Stock 1 always sells for $10 or $20. If stock

1 is selling for $10 today, there is a .80 chance that it will sell for

$10 tomorrow. If it is selling for $20 today, there is a .90 chance

that it will sell for $20 tomorrow. Stock 2 always sells for $10 or$25. If stock 2 sells today for $10, there is a .90 chance that it will

sell tomorrow for $10. If it sells today for $25, there is a .85

chance that it will sell tomorrow for $25. On the average, which

stock will sell for a higher price? Find and interpret all mean first

passage times.

winqsb dalam pengambilan keputusan

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