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A Co m m e n t o n F o r e c a s t i n g R e c r e a i h z z D e m a n di n t h e Up p e r S a va n n a h R iv e r Ba s i n

S t e p h e n L. J . Sm i t hDepartm ent of RecreationUniversity of Waterloo, Can ad a

As a young person ma tu res , he often ins i s t s on ma king the sam em ista kes h is paren ts an d older relat ives did when th ey were youn g.Th is ignoring of th e experien ce of oth ers is proba bly n orm al a n dh ealthy (with in lim its) in th e developm ent of a m atu re ind ividu al.However, ignorin g th e experien ce of oth er resea rch ers does n ot leadto a h ealth y or m atu re profess ion . The recent a r t icle by Sau n ders ,Senter , an d J arv is (Annals 198 1: 236 -256) on forecas ting recrea-t ion t ra vel an d pa r t ic ipat ion in th e Upper Savan n ah River Basin isa case in point .

Th is ar t icle is one of th e firs t to ap pear in the An n als of TourismResearch on th e su bject of u se and t ravel forecas t in g. It containsu sefu l ideas , car efu lly a na lyzed da ta , logical argum ents , bu t a m eth-odology th at is over a decad e out of da te. Resea rch on recrea tion altra vel forecas ting da tes from th e early 196 0s (Ullm an an d Volk 196 2;Crevo 1963 ); an d ar t ic les u sing m ethods s imilar to th at in Sau n ders ,e t a l . app eared n ot mu ch later (Wh itehea d 1965; Mat th ias an dGrecco 1969 ). Given th e acad emic backgrou n ds of th e au th ors , ascited at th e begin n in g of th e ar t icle, it m ay n ot be su rpr ising th eyare u na ware of geograp hic an d econ omic resear ch on th eir su bject :perh ap s som e respon sibility for th e omiss ion in th is ar t icle of an yack n owledgemen t of twent y years of resea rch belon gs to th e review-ers .This Departmen t is intended to arcommodate short rejoinders. commenta ries. an d rebutta ls on the contents 01Ann als. espeually feature a rt icles. b ook reviews. research notes an d reports Attempts shou ld be made to sub m,,su ch contributmn s immediately after each issue ofAnnals appears so tha t they a re pubh shed m thr subsequentissue. The Edltor rcser~es the r lghl to evaluate maten als for ther applicabili ty and usclulness and ~111 decidewhether to pub lish each 11x1rigina l or edited form) in this journ al.

Ann als qf Tourism Research, Vol. 9. pp. 251-265. 1982 0 1 6 0 -7 3 8 3 / 8 2 :0 2 0 2 5 1 ~ 1 5 $ 0 3 .0 0 / OPrinted in th e USA. All righls reser ved. &: 1982 J . &&an and Pergamon Press Ltd

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Th e p u rpose of th is n ote is n ot to depreciate th e work of Sau n ders ,Sent er , an d Ja rvis , bu t to draw at ten t ion to a body of literatu re th atother tour ism resear chers ma y also be u n fam iliar with . In add it ionto su ggesting a few ar t icles, I wou ld like to comm en t on on e or twodefinit ional matters.

Firs t , Sa u n ders u se of th e word dem an d poses a problem. Cer-ta in ly i t ha s been u sed in nu merous ways in the pas t ; and th e Char -ter of Rights in Can ad a an d th e Bill of Rights in the United Sta tesal low research ers to cont in u e to u se th at word in any way th ey wish .Bu t dem an d does carr y a ra th er widely recognized precise defin i-t ion in th e context of recreat ion forecas t in g: dema n d is a sch edu leof th e n u m ber of pa rticipa tions th a t will occu r at differen t levelsof cost . Th is defin it ion h as emerged an d endu red becau se otherdefin it ions h ave proven to be u nworkable in th e long ru n.

For exam ple, th e defin it ion (p. 241 ) su ggests dem an d is an all-or-n oth in g affair . To th e au th ors, eith er pa rt icipa tion occurs (givenad equ at e su pply) or i t does n ot. Th e poten tial for pa rt icipa tion in -depen den t of su pply is a lso descr ibed as dem an d. Th e problem h ereis th e fai lu re to defin e a dequ ate su pply (which th e au th ors t ry torelate to an other concept ca lled u n met dema nd ). Consider th e pre-dicted u n m et d ema n d for prim itive cam ping. Facilit ies for primitivecamping exis t th roughout the United Sta tes , ind eed throu ghou t theworld. It is h ard to believe th at th ere is n ot adequa te spa ce for pr im-it ive cam ping som ewhere in th e world to sa tisfy th e des ires of th epopu lat ion in Sau n ders s tu dy area . In pra ct ice , of cours e, m ostpeop le a re n ot willing to tra vel worldwide to go cam pin g, given evena high desi re to pa r t ic ipa te . Th e iss u e is th e cost th at m u st be paidin order to rea ch th e facility n eeded to sa tisfy t h at d esire. Differen tpeople a re willin g to pa y differen t am ou n ts for differen t qu an ti t iesof pr imit ive cam ping-but th e con cept ion of dema n d in th is par-t icu lar ar t icle ignores th is fact . No wher e is th ere an y da ta describingvar iat ions in willin gnes s to pay or to th e m ar gin al u ti lity of ad dit iona loccasions of primitive cam ping. Lack of su ch ba sic in form at ion com-prom ises th e plan n in g u tility of th e forecas ts .

To be fai r , one might argue th at th e au th ors crud ely es t ima tewillin gnes s to pa y when th ey iden tify m ar ket ar eas . However, it ap -pears tha t the ma rke t a reas a re based on an assu mp t ion of u ni formdema n d an d u n iform costs (including t ravel t ime)-ass u mp tionstha t a re both u nrea l is t ic an d u nn ecessa ry. Fur th er , the s ize an dsh ap e of th ese m ark et area s can be expected to cha nge over t im e.Variat ions in fu el costs , resource qu al ity , th e n u mb er an d accessi -bility of comp etin g ar eas , an d th e repu tat ion of th e region will al lcha nge an d will consequ ent ly cha n ge both dema nd an d willin gnessto pay. Ironical ly, th e au th ors th ems elves su ggest th at one reason2 5 2 1 98 2 ANNALS OF TOURISM RE SEARCH


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for u nd er taking th is s tu dy is th at th e Upper Savan n ah River Basinwill proba bly become a m ajor des tina tion region-with ou t ad ju stingth eir m ark et area s to reflect th e cha n ges th is predict ion imp lies .

Th e n ext poin t h as less to do with defin it ion s an d m ore to do withactu al m ethods . Th e u se of per capi ta consu m ption rates to predictfu tu re dema nd was once fai r ly popu lar in geograph ic an d econ omiclit e ra ture , bu t i t is no t used as mu ch now. Fir s t , these ra tes a reca lcula ted on the bas is of ac tua l par t ic ipa t ion pa t te rns , an d thu sar e a fu n ction of exist in g su pply as well as of dem an d. Th is is anexam ple of th e well-kn own iden tification problem in econom ics. Ifwe observe th at a par t icular region h as a low pa r t ic ipa t ion rate inalpine sk iin g, i t m ay be a m at ter of ta st e or of a lack of sn ow an dsu itab le terrain-or both. Mu ch recreat ion d ema nd is su pply- in-du ced, so i t is n ot clear how a su pp ly-free ra te of pa rt icipa tion canbe calculated or h ow one can gen eralize from actu al rat es of pa rt ic-ipa tion to ar rive at a sch edu le of expected ra tes of pa rt icipa tionu nd er var iable costs . Fu r th er , Beam an , Kim, an d Sm ith (1979 ) h avesh own th at su pply-effects on par t ic ipa t ion in outdoor recreat ion areat leas t as s t ron g as demograph ic an d socio-econ omic effects , s ovariation s in fu tu re levels of su pply an d th eir effects on pa rt icipa tionra tes deserve mu ch more a t t en t ion tha n h as been given in th i s a r -ticle.

An other problem with th e per capi ta ra te meth od is th at i t re-qu ires th e as su mp tion th at th ere will be n o cha n ge in th e popu lar i tyof a ctivities. If on e is foreca st ing for sh ort p eriods of tim e, s ay fiveyears or less , th is ma y be a reasonab le ass u mp t ion . But the au thorsm ak e forecas ts for th e period of one gen eration-34 years ( 1976 to2010 ). A model th at ass u mes away cha n ges in tas tes over th e spa ceof a gen erat ion ma y be s imple (a vir tu e in th eir m ethod th e au th orsh ighlight), bu t it is also wrong. Predictions resu lt ing from th is typeof m odel a re too u n reliab le to ba se an y decision in volvin g pu blic ta xdollars.

Th ree al terna t ives are availab le to research ers wish ing to u se sometype of per cap ita u se forecas ting. On e can identify pa st ra tes ofcha n ge in per capi ta par t ic ipa t ion an d bu ild th ese t rend s in to th em odel by as su m in g th e rate of cha nge will rema in u n cha n ged in tothe near fu tu re . The Cana dian Outdoor Recrea t ion Dema nd Study(Parks Can ada 1976) an d th e Nat ion al Symposium on Trend s inOu tdoor Recreation (USDA Forest Service 198 0) conta in m u ch val-u ab le in form at ion on th is iss u e. Altern at ively, th e popu lation m ightbe disaggregated in to age-sex cohorts or oth er social u n its for whichrates of pa r t ic ipat ion are th en obtain ed (Gu m an d Mart in 1977 :Marcin a nd Lim e 19 77). Consider ing th e profoun d cha n ges th at arelikely to occur in th e dem ograp h ic m ak eu p of society between n ow

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an d 2010, th is app roach seem s especial ly desi rable. Th e th ird ap-proach wou ld be to s ta t is t ically es t imate relat ion sh ips between par-t icipa tion an d var iou s socio-econom ic var iab les for in dividu als orgeogra ph ical regions . By u sing forecas ts of ch an ges in th ese socio-econom ic var iables , one can con stru ct an an alysis of var ian ce model(Cheu n g 1972; Roms a a nd Gir lin g 1976) or an au tomat ic in teract iondetect ion model (Sonqu is t an d Morgan 1970 : Arsen au lt Dionn e,Beam an an d Renou x 197 6) to forecas t pr obab le levels of pa rt icipa -t ion. Regardless of which of th ese th ree meth ods is u sed, th e fore-cas ts sh ould be limited to a ma xim u m of 10 or 15 years . An yth in gm ore dis tan t th an th at belongs to th e realm of scien ce fic t ion.

The au thors express th eir awaren ess of th e desi rability of con sid-ering variation s in th e qu ality of reser voirs , bu t do n ot do so becau seof th e perceived difficu lty of doin g on -site in ven tories an d u ser su r-veys. It seems sh or t -s igh ted th at a pu blic a gency going thr ough th eprocess of long ra n ge plan n in g could n ot fin d s ome way to providein vent ory in form at ion on si te qu ality to its cons u lta n ts. At a m in i-mu m one cou ld ha ve u sed th e inventory in forma t ion al ready col-lected by th e US Arm y Corps of En gin eers (197 4) on Clar k Hill an dHar twell Reservoirs to est im at e th e relative at tra ctiven ess of th esetwo reser voirs. Wen n ergren an d Nielsen ( 1968) have shown tha t thesu rface ar ea of reser voirs provides a m eas u re of th e recreat ion u til-ity of reser voirs th at al lows for accu ra te pred ictions of th e n u m berof boat ers expected at differen t reser voirs . In ciden ta lly, Wen n ergrenan d Nielsen u se su rface a rea in a Hu ff- type con su m er choice modelto pred ict m ar ket s h ar e of competin g si tes. Th is ap proa ch m ayh ave been an especial ly u sefu l on e in th e Upper Savan n ah app roachbecau se it provides s tocha st ic forecasts th at can be u sed to al locatetotal levels of pa rt icipa n ts (pred icted by tra dit iona l per cap ita u sem easu res) am ong exis t ing an d proposed s ites .

Th e effect of comp etin g an d in tervening si tes was n ot ad equ atelydiscus sed in Sau n ders ar t ic le . Several s tu dies h ave been comp letedth at provide illu st ra tion s h ow oth er (actu al or proposed ) recrea tiondes tina tion s can be in corporated in to forecas ting m odels to al lowfor m ore reliab le an d real is t ic u se es t im at ion s (Cheu n g 1972 : Grub ban d Goodwin 196 8).

Popu lations in differen t origin s sh ow m ark ed var iat ions in th eirdes ire for tr avel an d for differen t types of ac tivities . Th is is som e-times referred to as th e em iss iven ess effect , as opposed to th ea ttr a ctiven es s effect of des tin at ion s. A working defin ition of th econcept an d an illu s t ra t ion how it can be measu red from cens u sda ta is availab le in Cesa rio ( 1973).

Fina lly, th e u se of a gravity m odel to alloca te d em an d is referr edto bu t it is n ot as c lear as it m ight be. Th ere are nu merou s vers ion s

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an d modificat ion s of gravity an d in teract ion m odels th at can be u sed(Batt y an d Mack ie 197 2: Black 197 3; Wolfe 19 72). I t wou ld be h elpfu lto kn ow exactly wha t type of gravity m odel was u sed a n d h ow it wascalibra ted-an d why th at type an d calibra t ion m ethod were chosenover the alternatives.

In conclu sion, th e ar t ic le by Sau n ders , Sen ter , an d J arvis is acontr ibu t ion to th e tour ism literatu re an d to th e plann in g of th eUpper Savan n ah River Bas in . Th eir contr ibu t ion, th ough, cou ldh ave been greater if th ey ha d bas ed th eir work on the two decadesof work already com pleted in stea d of str iking out on th eir own. c 7

REFERENCES

Arsen au lt . J . , A. Dionn e, J . Beaman . an d M. Renoux197 6 An alysis of Varian ce Models with Intera ction Effects an d Their Poten tial

Role in Unders tan ding an d Predict ing Recreat ion Beha viou r . In Can adianOutd oor Recreat ion Deman d Stu dy, Volu me II. Techn ical Note 20:293-31 6.Toronto: On tar io Resea rch Cou n cil on Leisu re.

Bat ty, M. and S. Mackie19 72 Th e Calibra tion of Gra vity. En tropy, an d Related Models of Spa tial In ter-

act ion. En vironm ent an d Plan ning 4(3):205-233.Beama n, J . , Y. Kim. an d S. L. J . Smith19 79 The Effect of Recreation Su pp ly on Part icipa tion. Leisu re Sciences

2( 1):71--87 .Black, W. R.

19 73 An An alysis of Gra vity Model Distan ce Exponen ts. Tran sp ortat ion2(4):299-312.

Cesar io, F. J .197 3 A Gen eralized Trip Distr ibu tion Model. J ou rn al of Regiona l Science

13(2):233-247.Cheu ng, H. K.

19 72 A Day-Use Visitat ion Model. J ou rn al of Leisur e Resear ch 4(2):139 - 156 .Crevo, C. C.

196 3 Cha racter is t ics of Su mm er Weekend Recreat ional Travel. Highway Re-search Record 247:5 l -60.

Gru bb. H. an d J . Goodwin19 68 Econom ic Evalua tion of Water-Oriented Recreation, Report 84. Au stin :

Texas Water Developm ent Board.Gum, R. C. and W. E. Mart in

1977 Stru ctu re of Deman d for Outd oor Recreat ion. Lan d Economics 53( 1):43-55.Marcin. T. C. and D. W. Lime

1977 Ou r Cha nging Populat ion Stru ctur e: Wha t Wil l It Mean for Fu tu re OutdoorRecreation Use? In Ou tdoor Recreation: Advan ces in App lication of Eco-nom ics, Gener al Tech n ical Report WO-2. pp. 42 -53. Wash ington. DC: USForest Service.

Matthias . J . S. an d W. L. Grecco196 8 Simp lified Procedu re of Est imat ing Recreationa l Travel to Multi-Pu rpos e

Reservoirs . Highway Research Record 250:54-69.

19 82 ANNALS OF TOURISM RES EARCH 255


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REJ OINDER S AND COMMENTARY

Par ks Canada197 6 Can adian Outd oor Recreat ion Deman d Stu dy, Volu me II. The Techn ical

Notes. Toronto: On tar io Resea rch Coun cil on Leisu re.Roms a, G. H. an d S. Gir l ing197 6 The Ident i ficat ion of Ou tdoor Recreat ion Market Segments on the Basis

of Frequ ency of Part icipa tion. J ou rn al of Leisu re Resea rch 8(4):247-2 55 .Sau nd ers , P. R., H. F. Senter , an d J . P. J arvis

198 1 Forecast ing Recreat ion Deman d in the Upper Savan na h River Basin. An-na ls of Tourism Research 8(2):236-256.

Sonqu ist , J . A. an d J . N. Morgan19 70 Th e Detection of Intera ction Effects, Monograp h 35 . An n Arbor, Mich igan :

Survey Research Center .Ullman . E. L. an d D. J . Volk

19 62 An Opera tional Model for Predicting Reservoir Atten da n ce an d Benefits:Im plications of a Location App roach to Water Recreat ion . Pap ers of th eMichigan Acad emy of Science, Arts and Letters 47:47 3-48 4.

US Arm y Corps of En gin eers197 4 Plan Formu lat ion an d Evalu at ion Stud ies-Recreat ion, Volu me II. Est i -

ma ting In itial Reservoir Recreation Use, pp. A-14 9- 155 . Fort Belvoir. Vir-gin ia: USAE Inst itute for Water Resour ces.

USDA Forest Service1980 Proceedings of the Nat ional Ou tdoor Recreat ion Trends Symp osiu m. Gen-

era l Tech n ical Report NE-57. two volumes plus techn ical app endix. Broom-al l. Penn sylvan ia: Northeas tern Forest Experimen t Stat ion.

Wen n ergren, E. B. an d D. B. Nielsen1968 A Probabi lis t ic Approach to Est imat ing Deman d for Outd oor Recreat ion,

Bullet in 478. Logan , Utah : Utah Agricu ltu ral Experimen t Stat ion.Whitehead. J . I.

196 5 Road Traffic Growth an d Cap acity in a Holiday Distr ict (Dorset). Proceed-ings of th e Institu te of Civil En gineers 30:58 9-60 8.

Wolfe, R. I.I972 The Iner t ia Model. J ourn al of Leisu re Research 4111 :73-76.

Submitted 20 Januaw 1982Accepted 22 February 1982

Toward A Soc ia l Psych ologica l Theo ryof Tour i sm Mot iva t ion : A Re jo in der

Seppo E. I so-AholaDepa rtm ent of Recreation

University of Maryland . USA

Recently, Dann (1981) surveyed the literature on tour ism moti-vation. In an effort to reconcile differences between various ap-2 5 6 19 8 2 ANNALS OF TOURISM RES EARCH

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