DAFTAR ISI

RINGKASAN

KATA PENGANTAR...................................................................................................i

DAFTAR ISI .................................................................................................................ii

DAFTAR TABEL.........................................................................................................iv

DAFTAR GAMBAR ....................................................................................................vi

DAFTAR PUSTAKA ...................................................................................................viii

BAB I PENDAHULUAN

1.1 Latar Belakang....................................................................................................1

1.2 Identifikasi Masalah............................................................................................1

1.3 BatasanMasalah...................................................................................................2

1.4 Rumusan Masalah...............................................................................................2

1.5 Tujuan dan manfaat.............................................................................................2

BAB II TINJAUAN PUSTAKA

2.1 Proses Hidrologi dan Klasifikasi Hidrologi........................................................4

2.2 Model Hidrologi Matematik dan Simulasi..........................................................4

2.3 Hidrologi Stokastik.............................................................................................5

2.4 Hidrologi Permukaan dan Hidrologi Bawah Permukaan....................................5

2.5 Daur Limpasan (Runoff Cycle)...........................................................................6

2.6 Curah Hujan........................................................................................................7

2.7 Pengujian Data Curah Hujan...............................................................................11

2.8 Perhitungan Evapotranspirasi..............................................................................20

2.9 Simulasi Debit Sungai dengan Metode Model Tangki (Tank Model)................22

2.9.1 Keuntungan dan Kerugian Penerapan Model Tangki................................22

2.9.2 Optimasi dengan Metode Agoritma Genetika............................................23

2.9.3 Konsep Model Tangki Sugawara...............................................................23

BAB III METODE KAJIAN

3.1 Lokasi Kajian......................................................................................................26

3.2 Data Kajian..........................................................................................................27

3.2.1 Data Curah Hujan dan Data Debit.............................................................27

3.2.2 Data Lokasi DAS.......................................................................................28

3.2.3 Data Klimatologi........................................................................................28

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3.3 Analisa Data Hujan.............................................................................................28

3.3.1 Uji Konsistensi...........................................................................................28

3.3.2 Uji ANOVA...............................................................................................28

3.3.3 Curah Hujan Rerata Harian Daerah...........................................................29

3.4 Perhitungan Evapotranspirasi..............................................................................29

3.5 Simulasi Debit Menggunakan Metode Model Tangki........................................29

3.5.1 Konsep Model Tangki Berbasis Genetic Algorithm (GA)........................33

3.6 Diagram Alir Kajian............................................................................................36

BAB IV PEMBAHASAN

4.1 Uji Konsistensi Data Curah Hujan......................................................................37

4.2 Uji Kesesuaian Data............................................................................................41

4.2.1 Uji ANOVA...............................................................................................41

4.3 Curah Hujan Rerata Daerah................................................................................43

4.4 Perhitungan Evapotranspirasi..............................................................................44

4.5 Uji Statistik Data Hujan......................................................................................50

4.6 Model Simulasi Algoritma Genetik....................................................................63

4.7 Aplikasi Optimasi Parameter Model Tanngki dengan Metode AG....................67

4.7.1 Proses Inisialisasi Pada Algoritma Genetik...............................................68

4.7.2 Proses Perbaikan Pada Algoritma Genetik................................................73

4.8 Simulasi Model Tangki Harian...........................................................................84

4.8.1 Simulasi Berbagai Jenis Harian.................................................................85

BAB V PENUTUP

5.1 Kesimpulan...............................................................................................................96

5.2 Saran.........................................................................................................................98

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DAFTAR TABEL

Tabel 2.1 Nilai F untuk α = 10%....................................................................................15

Tabel 2.2 Nilai F untuk α = 5%......................................................................................16

Tabel 2.3 Nilai F untuk α = 2,5%...................................................................................18

Tabel 2.4 Nilai F untuk α = 1%......................................................................................19

Tabel 4.1 Curah Hujan Maksimum Tahunan Stasiun Hujan yang Diuji.......................37

Tabel 4.2 Uji Konsistensi Stasiun Hujan K.D.PU.AIR..................................................38

Tabel 4.3 Uji Konsistensi Stasiun Boyolangu................................................................39

Tabel 4.4 Uji Konsistensi Stasiun Hujan Ngantru..........................................................40

Tabel 4.5 Perhitungan Rerata Curah Hujan Per Kelas...................................................41

Tabel 4.6 Perhitungan Uji Homogenitas dengan Metode ANOVA...............................42

Tabel 4.7 Besaran nilai angot (Ra) dalam evaporasi ekivalen (mm/hati) dalam

hubungannya dengan letak lintang.................................................................45

Tabel 4.8 Hubungan Suhu dengan Besarnya Tekanan Uap...........................................45

Tabel 4.9 Besaran angka koreksi untuk rumus Penman.................................................46

Tabel 4.10 Perhitungan Evapotranspirasi Metode Penman..............................................49

Tabel 4.11 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................51

Tabel 4.12 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................52

Tabel 4.13 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................53

Tabel 4.14 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................54

Tabel 4.15 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................54

Tabel 4.16 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................55

Tabel 4.17 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................56

Tabel 4.18 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................57

Tabel 4.19 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................58

Tabel 4.20 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................59

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Tabel 4.21 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................60

Tabel 4.22 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................61

Tabel 4.23 Data Input Kalibrasi Model Tangki dengan Metode Coba Banding/Trial and

Error................................................................................................................61

Tabel 4.24 Parameter Model Tangki Hasil Coba Banding/Trial and Error.....................62

Tabel 4.25 Kromosom Sebagai Alternatif Solusi.............................................................64

Tabel 4.26 Kromosom Hasil Reproduksi Setelah Seleksi................................................65

Tabel 4.27 Crossover antara Kedua Kromosom...............................................................66

Tabel 4.28 Hasil Reproduksi Menghasilkan Populasi 120 Kromosom...........................67

Tabel 4.29 Generasi Awal dari Populasi Parameter Model Tangki.................................70

Tabel 4.30 Populasi Awal Parameter Model Tangki.......................................................73

Tabel 4.31 Populasi Hasil Perbaikan Pertama.................................................................74

Tabel 4.32 Populasi Hasil Perbaikan (Seleksi)................................................................75

Tabel 4.33 Generasi Turunan Berikutnya........................................................................76

Tabel 4.34 Cek Kondisi Keseragaman Populasi Kromosom...........................................78

Tabel 4.35 Rekap Hasil Iterasi Optimasi Metode AG.....................................................80

Tabel 4.36 Rekap Nilai Parameter Hasil Optimasi Metode AG......................................81

Tabel 4.37 Rekap Hasil Analisa RMSE dan Korelasi Setiap Model Hasil Bangkitan....94

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DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 2.1 Model Stokastik...........................................................................................5

Gambar 2.2 DAS Sebagai Sistem Hidrologi....................................................................6

Gambar 2.3 Siklus Hidrologi...........................................................................................8

Gambar 2.4 Metode Poligon Thiesen..............................................................................10

Gambar 2.5 Metode Poligon Isohyet...............................................................................11

Gambar 2.6 Kurva Massa Ganda Uji Konsistensi...........................................................12

Gambar 2.7 Panci Penguapan Kelas A............................................................................21

Gambar 2.8 Prosedur umum Algoritma Genetik.............................................................23

Gambar 2.9 Bagan Pengaliran Sungai dan Pemodelan Tangki Susunan Seri.................24

Gambar 3.1 Peta Orientasi Sub Sub DAS Keser Terhadap Sub DAS Ngrowo...............26

Gambar 3.2 Peta Orientasi Sub Sub DAS Keser.............................................................27

Gambar 3.3 Model Tangki Susunan Seri.........................................................................30

Gambar 3.4 Prosedur Perhitungan Debit Metode Model Tangki.....................................32

Gambar 3.5 Diagram Alir Optimasi Parameter Model Tangki........................................35

Gambar 3.6 Diagram Alir Penelitian...............................................................................36

Gambar 4.1 Kurva Massa Ganda Stasiun Hujan K.D.PU.AIR........................................38

Gambar 4.2 Kurva Massa Ganda Stasiun Hujan Boyolangu...........................................39

Gambar 4.3 Kurva Massa Ganda Stasiun Hujan Ngantru...............................................40

Gambar 4.4 Luas Daerah Pengaruh Metode Poligon Thiessen.......................................44

Gambar 4.5 Susunan Model Tangki................................................................................50

Gambar 4.6 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 24 hari.......................................................................52

Gambar 4.7 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 25 hari.......................................................................54

Gambar 4.8 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 28 hari.......................................................................56

Gambar 4.9 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 28 hari.......................................................................57

Gambar 4.10 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 34 hari.......................................................................59

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Gambar 4.11 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 30 hari.......................................................................61

Gambar 4.12 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan coba banding 22 hari.......................................................................63

Gambar 4.13 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit model model tangki dengan

optimasi AG 22 hari.....................................................................................82

Gambar 4.14 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan optimasi AG 25 hari........................................................................82

Gambar 4.15 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan optimasi AG 28 hari (Jan 2009 – Feb 2009)...................................83

Gambar 4.16 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan optimasi AG 28 hari (Des 2005 – Jan 2006)...................................83

Gambar 4.17 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan optimasi AG 30 hari........................................................................84

Gambar 4.18 Grafik Hubungan hari, debit lapangan dan debit bangkitan model tangki

dengan optimasi AG 34 hari........................................................................84

Gambar 4.19 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 22 hari 88

Gambar 4.20 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 25 hari 89

Gambar 4.21 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 28 hari 90

Gambar 4.22 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 28 hari 91

Gambar 4.23 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 30 hari 92

Gambar 4.24 Grafik hasil simulasi model tangki 10 tahun dengan optimasi AG 34 hari 93

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