sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku kedua tahun 2019 · 2019-09-17 · ppt contribution to gdp....

Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Kedua Tahun 2019

Gabenor

Bank Negara Malaysia

16 Ogos 2019

Sidang Akhbar

2

Sidang akhbar akan meliputi

Perkembangan ekonomi global dan serantau

Prestasi ekonomi Malaysia pada suku kedua 2019

Keadaan monetari dan kewangan

Challenging global economic environment

3

Slower growth across advanced and emerging market economies 1

2

3

Weak external demand amid ongoing trade tensions

Heightened global uncertainty

Global growth to moderate in 2019

4

Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, CEIC

…as reflected in slower manufacturing activity Global growth is on a moderating trend…

Global GDP Growth Forecast Global Manufacturing PMI

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

Aug-1

8

Oct-

18

De

c-1

8

Feb

-19

Apr-

19

Jun-1

9

World

Advanced Economies

Emerging Market Economies

Index

3.6

2.2

4.5

3.2

1.9

4.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Global AdvancedEconomies

EmergingMarket

Economies

2017 2018 2019f

yoy, %

Contraction <50

Weak external demand amid ongoing trade tensions

5

Source: CEIC, Ahir, Bloom and Furceri (2012), “The World Uncertainty Index”

…amid heightened global trade uncertaintySluggish global export growth…

Export Volume Growth World Trade Uncertainty Index

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-1

7

Apr-

17

Jul-1

7

Oct-

17

Jan-1

8

Apr-

18

Jul-1

8

Oct-

18

Jan-1

9

Apr-

19

World

Advanced Economies

Emerging Market Economies

% yoy

0

1

2

3

4

5

2Q-13 2Q-15 2Q-17 2Q-19

Start of trade

tensions

Index

Strength in private sector expenditure, recovery in commodity output and higher net exports

offset weak public investment activity

Higher net exports • Export growth amid decline in imports

Resilient private sector

expenditure

• Faster expansion in household spending

• Slightly higher private investment growth

6

Malaysia’s growth accelerated in 2Q 2019 despite global headwinds

Recovery in commodity

output

• Rebound in natural gas production

• Continued improvement in palm oil yields

Weak public investment• Continued contraction in public

corporations’ capital spending

The Malaysian economy recorded a stronger growth of 4.9% in the

second quarter

7

Growth supported by continued expansion across all economic sectors

Annual change, %

4.5

4.9

3

4

5

6

7

1Q-17 2Q-17 3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

Real GDP Growth

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

Expansion across all economic sectors

-2.1

2.9

1Q-19 2Q-19

0.3 0.5

1Q-19 2Q-19

4.2 4.3

1Q-19 2Q-19

5.6

4.2

1Q-19 2Q-19

Annual change, %

Growth supported by the recovery from commodity supply disruptions and improved performance in

the manufacturing and construction sectors

MiningManufacturing Agriculture ConstructionServices

Recovery in natural gas

output from supply

disruptions in 2018

Better performance of

the domestic-oriented

industries

Decline in fishing and

forestry segment and

weaker natural rubber

output partially offset

by continued recovery

in palm oil yields

Improvements in the

residential and special

trade sub-sectors

Sustained growth in the

wholesale and retail

trade sub-sector

8


6.4 6.1

1Q-19 2Q-19

Continued private sector expenditure underpinned by both private consumption and investment


Private sector spending remained the key driver of growth

Firm private sector expenditure

• Stronger expansion in household spending

amid slight improvement in private investment

Weak public investment

• Continued contraction in capital outlays by

public corporations

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to GDP

Quarterly GDP growth

4.9

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

Public consumption Change in stocks

Private consumption Private investment

Public investment Net exports

GDP growth

4.4 4.7 4.5

9

Higher net exports

• Import growth contracted while export growth

was sustained

5.3 4.5

Private consumption growth remained firm

10

* Real private sector wages are derived from the nominal salaries and wages data, published in the Monthly Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services Statistics by

the Department of Statistics, Malaysia (covering 62.9% of total employment). The nominal private sector wages are then deflated by the consumer price index (CPI).

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Household spending lifted by above-average real wage growth

and several Government measures

7.6

7.8

5

6

7

8

9

10

2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19

Going forward, consumer

spending to remain

supported by:

Real Private Consumption Growth

Continued income and

employment growth

Supportive Government

policies

5.2

3.6

0

2

4

6

2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

Annual change, %

Real Private Sector Wage Growth*

Annual change, %

2015-2018 average: 3.1%

11

0.4

1.8

0

2

4

6

8

10

2Q 17 4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, RAM BCI, Bank Negara Malaysia

Annual change, %

Slight rebound in private investment…

Real Private Investment Growth

…but, downside risks remain

Persistent weakness in the

property segment

Heightened global uncertainty

and slower global growth

Private investment growth improved

Malaysia’s Exports by Product

Slight recovery in exports and smaller decline in import growth

12

Marginal turnaround in

export growth

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bloomberg

0.2

-10

0

10

20

30

2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19

Annual change, %

Export Growth

-1.2

-10

0

10

20

30

2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19

Annual change, %

Import Growth

Diversified exports helped

mitigate impact of weaker

E&E export growth…

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

Korea

Singapore (non-oil)

C. Taipei

Thailand

Malaysia

…as reflected by Malaysia’s

exports compared to regional

economies

Annual change, %

Regional Economies Export

Performance in USD Terms

-0.7

0.2

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

E&E Non-E&E

Agriculture Mineral

Overall

Ppt contr./Annual change, %

Aug-18 Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19 Apr-19 Jun-19 Aug-19

Box Article: Unresolved trade tensions pose a multitude of challenges,

risks and opportunities

Source: National authorities, newsflows

Protracted trade disputes may have significant

structural implications

Vacillation of trade developments in the past year

have generated major uncertainties

Summary of Key Developments

Rest of the World

Delay

automobile

tariff

Tariff on

Mexico

suspended

Remove steel & alum. tariff

from Mexico and Canada

G20: Tariff truce US delay

tariff on

USD200bn

Increase tariff on USD200bn

and impose trade

restrictions on Huawei

PR China

retaliates

Tariff truce

Threaten tariff

on Mexico

Canada impose tariff on US

Steel tariff on

Turkey; Turkey

retaliates

US impose

tariff on India

India

retaliates

Tariff on

Vietnam

EU, Canada and Mexico

US files dispute with WTO

PR China file

dispute with WTO

Subdued global growth1

Ongoing growth moderation dragged

lower by trade disputes

Reconfiguration of

Global Value Chains3

Short- and long-term opportunities for

Malaysia

High financial volatility and

investor uncertainty2

Uncertainty over trade policies at an

all-time high

13

US announce

10% on

USD300 bn of

imports and

designate PR

China as

currency

manipulator

Es

ca

lati

ng

te

ns

ion

sD

e-e

sc

ala

tio

no

f te

ns

ion

s

PR China

Further escalation of trade tensions will weigh on growth outlook

Lower downside risks in latest assessment due mainly to delay in implementation of selected tariffs

Ppt. contribution, %

Summary of Downside Risk Estimates for 2019

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Malaysia GDP

-0.9 to -1.1 ppt

Global GDP

-0.6 to -0.8 ppt

Malaysia Exports

-1.2 to -1.7 ppt

Global Trade

-1.0 to -1.5 ppt

Global GDP

~ -0.1 ppt

Global Trade

~ -0.1 ppt

3Q 2018 Quarterly Bulletin Current

Malaysia Exports

~ -0.2 ppt

Malaysia GDP

~ -0.1 ppt

14

15

Current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus of

RM14.3 billion or 3.9% of GNI

0.9

3.0

4.7

3.9

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19

% of GNIRM billion

Secondary Income

Primary Income

Services

Goods

Current Account Balance, % of GNI (RHS)

Current account surplus remained sizeable

Current account balance (CA)

Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Continued goods surplus

• Demand from key trade

partners to expand, albeit

more moderately

Services and income accounts

to remain in deficit

• Reliance on foreign service

providers

• Substantial income accrued to

foreign investors

Current account to remain in surplus

16

Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

RM billion2018 2019

1H 1Q 2Q 1H

Direct Investment 8.7 16.3 -8.2 8.0

Direct Investment Abroad -6.7 -5.5 -12.6 -18.1

Foreign Direct Investment 15.5 21.7 4.4 26.1

Portfolio Investment -39.4 2.1 -10.2 -8.1

Resident -10.3 -11.4 -5.0 -16.5

Non-resident -29.1 13.5 -5.1 8.4

Financial Derivatives 1.6 -0.2 -0.5 -0.7

Other Investments 51.5 -31.9 0.3 -31.6

Financial Account

Balance22.4 -13.8 -18.6 -32.4

Financial Account by Components

Financial account recorded a net outflow

The financial account registered a net outflow amounting

to RM18.6 billion

Higher DIA

Reversal of non-resident

portfolio investments

Continued, albeit lower, FDI

Monetary and Financial Developments

17

Headline inflation increased to 1.5% in June 2019

18

1Core inflation is computed by excluding price-volatile and price-administered items. It also excludes the estimated direct impact of consumption tax policy changes.2Others include price-volatile items and other price-administered items

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to headline inflation

1.5

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

Ap

r-18

Ma

y-1

8

Jun

-18

Jul-

18

Au

g-1

8

Se

p-1

8

Oct-

18

Nov-1

8

Dec-1

8

Jan

-19

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Jun

-19

Core inflation¹(ppt)

Fuel (ppt)

Net impact of consumption tax policy changes (ppt)

Others² (ppt)

Headline inflation (%)

Core inflation¹ (%)

Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component

• Headline inflation is expected to

average higher in 2H 2019

following the lapse in the impact

of consumption tax policy

changes

• Underlying inflation is expected to

remain stable2Q 2018 3Q 2018 4Q 2018 1Q 2019 2Q 2019

1.3 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.6Headline inflation

Domestic financial markets have been moving in tandem with regional

markets, reflecting global developments

*YTD as at 15 August 2019

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Movement of Ringgit and Regional Currencies against the

US Dollar

Movement of domestic financial markets during the quarter has been driven mainly by

external factors

19

-8.4

-2.7

-2.2

-2.0

-1.7

-1.3

0.02

1.3

5.7

-4.7

-1.3

-2.2

-3.3

-2.5

-1.2

-2.5

-1.0

-0.2

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

KRW

TWD

CNY

INR

SGD

MYR

PHP

IDR

THB

Since July YTD*

%

Movement Range of 5-Year Sovereign Bond Yields and

Equity Prices of Regional Markets since July*

*Movement change from 1 July to 14 August 2019. Regional countries include

Indonesia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore, South Korea and Thailand

Source: Bloomberg, Bank Negara Malaysia

(-92.8)

(-0.6)

(-16.8)

(-9.0)

(-1.4)

(-4.3)

(Regional min/max change) (Malaysia change)

Equity price

(%)

5Y Bond

(bps)

Non-residents registered net inflows into bonds since June 2019

20

Malaysian bond yields edged lower in line with

global bond yields

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia and Bloomberg

NR holdings of Malaysian Govt bonds stood at

22.2% as at end-July 2019…

Regional Government 10-yr Bond Yields (Normalised)

As at

14/08/2019

Regional 10-year Bond Yields

Malaysia US Thailand Indonesia

Change in

yields (bps)-66 -111 -102 -55

Current yield

(%)3.42 1.58 1.47 7.43

Volatility 0.16 0.30 0.25 0.28

Index

Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government

Bonds as at end-June 2019.

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

0

100

200

Jan

-19

Feb

-19

Mar

-19

Ap

r-1

9

May

-19

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

NR holdings of Govt Bond (LHS)

% NR of Govt (RHS)

41.5%29.4%

19.2%7.1%

1.6% 1.2%0

20

40

60

80

AssetMgmt.

CentralBanks/Govts.

PensionFunds

Banks InsuranceCompanies

Others

Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds

RM billion % NR

Holdings

RM billion

…with long term stable investors remained as

key holders of Malaysian government bonds

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.1

1.2

1.3

Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19

US 10-yr Malaysia 10-yr

Indonesia 10-yr Thailand 10-yr

External debt remains manageable

21

1 Changes in individual debt instruments exclude exchange rate revaluation effects2 Comprise trade credits, IMF allocation of SDRs and other debt liabilities

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

External debt increased to 61.3% of GDP

(1Q 2019: 59.5%)Banks’ external assets rose in tandem

with their external debt

Changes in External Debt1

2Q 2019: +RM27.4 billion

-6.3

-2.8-1.5 -0.9

0.1

5.1

13.0

20.7

NRholdingsof dom.

debtsecurities

NRdeposits

Loans Others² Bonds &notes

Inter-company

loans

ERval.

effects

Interbankborrowings

RM billion

Corresponding increase in banks’ external assets

2Q 2019: +RM22.8 billion

25.2

22.8

External debt External assets

Increase in Banks’ External Assets and Liabilities

(RM billion)


Further deepening of Malaysia’s onshore financial market following

measures to enhance market accessibility and liquidity

22

Foreign Exchange (FX) Volume and MYR FX Forward

Volume

A deep and liquid financial market is

fundamental to preserve market stability:

• A well-defined legal framework, robust

market infrastructure and sound

macroeconomic fundamentals remain key

to Malaysia’s attractiveness to investors.

• Initiatives to meet the diversified needs of

investors:

Appointed Overseas Offices (AOOs)

as a gateway to invest in Malaysia

Dynamic hedging programme for

institutional investors’ risk

management

USD bnUSD bn

Malaysia's onshore FX market continues to

grow in support of economic activity

0

4

8

12

16

0

50

100

150

200

2016 2017 2018 1H-2019

Total MYR FX Forward Volume

Average daily FX volume (RHS)

Initiatives to further enhance market accessibility and liquidity

23

Greater flexibility (longer tenor limit and wider range of repo securities) proposed under

revised repo guidelines

Principal Dealers will quote all off-the-run bonds available under the Bank’s Securities

Operations, in addition to their existing commitment to provide quotes for benchmark bonds

Standard documentation guide for FX transactions made available for convenient reference by

market participants

Improved ringgit accessibility after onshore trading hours via Appointed Overseas Offices

(AOOs) for non-resident investors and corporates

Foreign exchange administration (FEA) liberalisation measures to

support business efficiency

Enhancing hedging flexibility to promote sound risk management

Flexibility to hedge up

to underlying tenure1 2 3

Flexibility to hedge on

anticipatory basis

• Residents are free to hedge

foreign currency current

account obligations up to

underlying tenure

(previously up to 12 months)

• Resident treasury centres in

Malaysia are free to hedge on

behalf of their related entities

with a licensed onshore bank

• Non-resident treasury centres

registered with the Bank are

free to hedge on behalf of their

related entities with a licensed

onshore bank or AOO

(previously required approval)

• Non-residents are free to

hedge on an anticipatory

basis via AOO for

settlement of trade in

goods and services

(previously required approval)

Flexibility to hedge

via treasury centres

Revised definition of domestic ringgit borrowing

Ringgit credit facilities which are used by corporates for miscellaneous expenses such as

sundry and employees’ travel expenses are excluded from domestic ringgit borrowing

4

24

25

Financial institutions are well-capitalised, with strong liquidity buffers


Total Capital Ratio Capital Adequacy

(%) Ratio (%)

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and

Total High Quality Liquid Asset (HQLA)

Domestic financial stability continues to be supported by resilient

financial institutions

2Q 191Q 19

Insurance/ Takaful SectorBanking System

Stress tests continue to affirm financial institutions’ resilience to severe shocks under adverse

macroeconomic and financial conditions

236.8230.0

18.0

17.4

RM billion LCR (%)

613.0

153.0

0

30

60

90

120

150

180

500

600

700

1Q

17

2Q

17

3Q

17

4Q

17

1Q

18

2Q

18

3Q

18

4Q

18

1Q

19

2Q

19

Total High Quality Liquid Asset Liquidity Coverage Ratio (RHS)

Financing continues to facilitate economic activity

Higher loan disbursements to households and

businesses, but higher repayments led to

lower outstanding loan growth

*Loans from the banking system and DFIs


**Banking system only


Demand for financing showing some signs of

improvement given higher loan applications

during the quarter

Loans Disbursed*

162

359

225133183

391

239152

Households Businesses Non-SMEs SMEs

Average Jan - Jun (2014 - 2018) 2019 Jan - Jun

-4.3

-10.2

2.3 3.8

Households Businesses

1Q19 2Q19

Loans Repaid*

RM billion

RM billion

Growth in Loan Applications**

Annual Change, %

1Q 2019

4.4%

2Q 2019

4.6%153

353224

129183

393

239153

Households Businesses Non-SMEs SMEs

Average Jan - Jun (2014 - 2018) 2019 Jan - Jun

Domestic Demand

Annual Change, %

26

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

2Q

-19

Credit to Private Sector

Real GDP

Important to ensure credit growth is consistent with economic expansion

Current pace of credit expansion in

Malaysia is in line with economic activity

Credit to Private Sector and GDP

Note: Includes outstanding loans from the banking system and DFIs, and corporate bonds


Vulnerabilities can develop from a

misalignment between credit and

economic activity

GFC

Annual Change, %

These vulnerabilities, if not properly

managed, can pose risks to economic

sustainability

27

Monetary policy stance remains conducive to sustainable growth

amid price stability

28

• Overnight Policy Rate was kept

unchanged at 3.00% at the July 2019

MPC meeting

• The MPC will continue to assess the

balance of risks surrounding the outlook

for domestic growth and inflation


%

Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

3.00%

The Malaysian economy is expected to grow within 4.3 - 4.8% in 2019,

downside risks prevail

29

6.0

5.1

4.4

5.7

4.7

4.8

4.3

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

2014 2015 2016 2017 2018p 2019f

Upside

Risks

Downside

Risks

• Weaker global growth

• Escalation of trade tensions

• Lower commodity production

• Domestic policy uncertainties

• Positive outcomes from trade

negotiations

• Lower-than-expected inflation

lifting private consumption activity

Annual GDP Growth

Annual Change (%)

Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Additional Information

30

The Malaysian economy grew at faster pace in the second quarter

31

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties

component

Annual growth of GDP components

Add. Info

1

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2018)

2018 2019

2Q 1Q 2Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)94.1 5.5 4.4 4.6

Private Sector 74.2 7.3 5.9 6.2

Consumption 57.0 7.9 7.6 7.8

Investment 17.3 5.5 0.4 1.8

Public Sector 19.8 -1.6 -1.4 -2.8

Consumption 12.5 3.1 6.3 0.3

Investment 7.4 -9.9 -13.2 -9.0

Net exports of goods

and services7.0 -6.0 10.9 22.9

Exports 67.6 2.6 0.1 0.1

Imports 60.6 3.6 -1.4 -2.1

Change in stocks

(RM billion)-1.1 -2.2 -5.1 -4.6

Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9

Real GDP (q-o-q growth,

seasonally adjusted)- 0.6 1.1 1.0

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share1, %

(2018)

2018 2019

2Q 1Q 2Q

Services 56.7 6.5 6.4 6.1

Manufacturing 22.4 4.9 4.2 4.3

Mining and

Quarrying7.6 -3.4 -2.1 2.9

Agriculture 7.3 -1.7 5.6 4.2

Construction 4.9 4.8 0.3 0.5

Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9

32

Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia

Percentage point contribution to GDP growth by components

Add. Info

2The Malaysian economy grew at faster pace in the second quarter

Real GDP

(Contribution, ppt)

Share, %

(2018)

2018 2019

2Q 1Q 2Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)94.1 5.2 4.1 4.3

Private Sector 74.2 5.5 4.4 4.8

Consumption 57.0 4.4 4.3 4.4

Investment 17.3 1.1 0.1 0.4

Public Sector 19.8 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5

Consumption 12.5 0.4 0.7 0.0

Investment 7.4 -0.7 -1.0 -0.5

Net exports of goods

and services7.0 -0.4 0.9 1.4

Exports 67.6 1.8 0.0 0.0

Imports 60.6 2.2 -0.9 -1.3

Change in stocks

(RM billion)-1.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.7

Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9

Real GDP

(Contribution, ppt)

Share1, %

(2018)

2018 2019

2Q 1Q 2Q

Services 56.7 3.6 3.6 3.5

Manufacturing 22.4 1.1 0.9 1.0

Mining and

Quarrying7.6 -0.3 -0.2 0.2

Agriculture 7.3 -0.1 0.4 0.3

Construction 4.9 0.2 0.0 0.0

Real GDP 100 4.5 4.5 4.9

Import duties 1.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0

-0.2

0.2

-2.1

2.9

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

1Q 18 2Q 18 3Q 18 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19

Positive turnaround in the mining sector

33


Ppt contribution to headline GDP

…as natural gas production recovered from

last year’s supply disruption

The mining sector recorded the first positive growth

following six consecutive quarters of decline

Mining: Contribution to GDP and growth (% yoy)

0.3

-4.8

-8.4

0.4

-1.2

8.8

1Q 18 2Q 18 3Q 18 4Q 18 1Q 19 2Q 19

Natural Gas Industrial Production Index (% yoy)

%yoy

Mining

(% yoy, RHS)

Mining

(Cont. to GDP, LHS)

Add. Info

3

-39.8

-15.5-19.1

-28.6

-17.5

-38.1

-5.3 -6.7

-38.7

-8.1

-15.9

-8.5 -9.7

-29.6

-6.7

1.6

6.0 4.7 5.4 4.5

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

GFC(24 Apr 08 - 2 Mar 09)

European Debt Crisis(28 Jul - 4 Oct 11)

Taper Tantrum(22 May - 28 Aug 13)

Oil Price Decline(29 Aug 14 - 29 Sept 15)

Global Risk-off(April 18 - December 18)

Malaysia’s flexible exchange rate policy will continue to allow us

to withstand external shocks


Non-Resident (NR) Portfolio Flows, Reserves, Ringgit Performance and GDP Growth During Outflow PeriodsUSD billion / %

Average GDP Growth (%)

Change

in MYR/USD

(%)

NR

Portfolio

Flows

(USD bn)

• While exchange rate adjustments are necessary, any excessive volatility will be managed

through targeted foreign exchange intervention.

• The Bank will continue its efforts in deepening the domestic financial markets, especially in

enhancing hedging flexibilities and instruments.

Change in

reserves

(USD bn)

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4

34

a

Continued efforts to enhance access to financing, capacity building

and advisory

Financial guarantees by CGC

Assisted 452,000 SMEs obtain RM68 billion financing

Capacity to guarantee a further RM11.3 billion financing

Financing and debt resolution schemes e.g. Skim

Pembiayaan Mikro, Small Debt Resolution Scheme,

Corporate Debt Restructuring Committee

Ecosystem infrastructure e.g. Digital SME Financing

Referral Platform (imSME)

Kaunter Informasi PKS and dedicated hotline at

BNMLINK and BNM Offices nationwide and

dedicated SME contact points at banks

Lower lending rates under First-time Home

Buyers Scheme

Rumahku Financial Education

Skim Rumah Pertamaku and Skim

Perumahan Belia by Cagamas

Capacity to guarantee a further RM218 million

Purchase of home financing portfolio by

Cagamas from financing institutions to provide

liquidity to lenders to further finance home loans

Total Allocation under BNM’s Funds: RM10.1 billion, Available funds: RM4.4 billion

BNM’s Funds for SMEs BNM’s Funds for Affordable Homes

Allocation: RM9.1 billion Allocation: RM1 billion

Approved: RM31.5 billion* Approved: RM24.3 million

Available funds: RM3.4 billion Available funds: RM969.6 million

*Revolving fund

Flexibility for Rescheduling and Restructuring

(R&R) of financing

35

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sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku kedua tahun 2019 · 2019-09-17 · ppt contribution to gdp....

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