peta sumber dan bahaya gempa indonesia 2017: … · 2019-05-16 · prof. dr. ir. masyhur irsyam...

Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhur Irsyam HATTI-PuSGeN-ITB Medan 22 April 2019

Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia untuk Perencanaan Tahan Gempa 1

Prof. Dr. Ir. Masyhur Irsyam* dkk*Tim Struktur Bawah Revisi SNI 1726:2019*Ketua – Tim Pemutakhiran Peta Gempa Indonesia 2010 dan 2017 *Ketua – Tim Teknis Pusat Studi Gempa Nasional*Ketua Umum – Himpunan Ahli Teknik Tanah Indonesia

DISEMINASI DAN SOSIALISASI PETA SUMBER DAN BAHAYA GEMPA INDONESIA 2017 DAN PENERAPAN SNI BIDANG BAHAN, STRUKTUR DAN

KONSTRUKSI BANGUNAN PADA PERENCANAAN STRUKTUR GEDUNG (BANGUNAN TAHAN GEMPA)

Medan, 22 April 2019

PETA SUMBER DAN BAHAYA GEMPA INDONESIA 2017: PERKEMBANGAN DAN APLIKASINYA UNTUK PERENCANAAN STRUKTUR DAN INFRASTRUKTUR TAHAN GEMPA INDONESIA

1. Penyusunan Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Nasional Indonesia 2017

5. Respons Spektra Beberapa Kota Besar Indonesia

4. Local Site Effect: Fpga, Fa, dan Fv

2. Aplikasi Peta Gempa dalam Perencanaan Gedung dan InfrastrukturTahan Gempa Indonesia

Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN) Sosialisasi Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia 2017 dan Revisi SNI-1726:2019

Cakupan Materi Bahasan:

3. Peta Gempa untuk SNI 1726-2019: MCEG, MCER (Ss dan S1), dan TL




Kenapa bangunan bisa roboh saat gempa?

Kenapa lereng longsor dan retak?

Kenapa tanah mengalami likuifaksi?

RC, Padang

Hukum alam yg diterjemahkanKedalam Hukum Newton2:

H = m x a

H

H = m x ah

t = (0.65 m) x amax

Untuk keperluanperancangan tahangempa, mitigasi, dan disaster risk reduction, perlumengkuantifikasihazard gempa kedalam nilai:a (=percepatan/ spektra percepatan)

Gaya gempa H

Motion at Bedrock

H

Soil Condition

Required parameters for earthquake resistance building design?

Wave propagation from epicenter to bedrock surface

Earthquake source

Motion at Building

Buiding characteristics

Motion at Foundation

Gaya GempaH = m x a



Motion at Bedrock

H

Soil Condition

Wave propagation from epicenter to bedrock surface

Earthquake source

Motion at Building

Buiding characteristics

Motion at Foundation

Peta Gempa Nasional

Perencanaan Struktur Bawah

Perencanaan Struktur Atas

How to tranfer?Fromnatural phenomena

National maps of acceleration

Based upon probabilistic and

mechanics

National maps of acceleration (and spectral acceleration) have to be provided by Government/ Authorized Institution

Basic information Required for Earthquake Resistance Design?

National Maps of Ground Acceleration (Spectral Acceleration)

Peta Gempa Indonesia 2010 (Gempa 500 thn) Peta Gempa Indonesia 2017 (Gempa 500 thn)

Peraturan Beton Indonesia 1966 Peraturan Muatan Indonesia 1970

Standar Perencanaan Ketahanan Gempa untukStruktur Bangunan Gedung SNI 1727-2002 (Gempa 500 thn)

Peraturan Perencanaan Tahan Gempa Indonesia untuk Gedung 1983

September 4, 2017

8



Team for Updating of Seismic Hazard Maps of Indonesia 2017

Prof. Masyhur IrsyamIr. Lutfi Faizal

Dr. D.H. Natawijaya Dr. Irwan Meilano Prof. S Widiyantoro Dr. Wahyu Triyoso Dr. Sri Hidayati

STEERING COMMITTEE

ADVISORYBOARD

TECHNICALCOMMITTEES

GEOLOGY WORKING GROUP

GEODESY WORKING GROUP

SEISMOLOGY + INSTRUMENTATION

WORKING GROUP

GMPE WORKING GROUP

CATALOG WORKING GROUP

SEISMIC HAZARD WORKING GROUP

Ariska R., MSc

Dr. Benyamin SapiieDr. SupartoyoDr. Akhmad SolihinDr. Mudrik DaryonoDr. Astyka MumpuniDr. Gayatri I. MarliyaniDr. Ma’ruf MuktiSubandriyo, M.Si

Prof. HasanuddinDr. Endra GunawanSusilo, MTDr. DaryonoArkadia R., MTDr. N. Rahma HanifaDr. Dina A. SarsitoAwaluddin, MTCecep Sulaeman, MScPandu A. Minarno, STJohni Effendi, MTPutra Maulida, MTTeguh P. Sidiq, MTAlwidya Safitri, MTYola A. Herawati, STSuchi Rahmadani, STRefi R. Ramadian, ST

Prof. Nanang T PuspitoDr. Andri Dian NugrahaDr. M. RidwanDr. Wahyu TriyosoDr. MuzliDr. WandonoDr. Nurliah SadikinH. Ash Shidiqqi, M.SiShindy Rosalia, STPepen SupendiRexha Verdhora, MTRidwan Kusnandar Jajat JatmikaNova Heryandoko

Dr. Wahyu TriyosoDr. Windu PartonoProf. Wayan SengaraSigit Pramono, M.SiDr. Jaya MurjayaProf. Wijoyo PrakosoOriza Sativa, STFajri Syukur R, MTFajar Budi Utomo, STRequel Mikhail, MT

Dr. Andri Dian NugrahaDr. M. AsrurifakProf. Wayan SengaraShindy Rosalia, STFahmi Aldimar, MTPepen Supendi, MSi

Dr. M AsrurifakFahmi Aldiamar, MTAmalfi Omang, M. PhilDesyanti, MTDr. HendriyawanArtadi Pria Sakti, M.SiAdhi Yudha Mulia, MengMahdi Ibrahim T., MTImam Catur P, S.SiRahayu Robiana, S.SiHaunan Afif, S.SiRika Swastikarani, S.SiChiko Bakti M., MDMLaksamana M. Sakti, ST

Total members = 72 persons (from different institutions and technical background)

International Collaboration: GeoScinces&ANU-Australia, Global Earthquake Model-Italy, USGS-USA

9Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN) Revisi SNI-1726:2018

Pemuthakhiran Peta Gempa Indonesia 2016

10Depth (km)

Katalog PuSGeN 2016: all Shocks (1900-2016)

Upaya penyempurnaan peta gempa yang dilakukan meliputi:

(a) pemakaian data dasar yang lebih baik seperti SRTM-30, IFSAR, LiDAr, dan kataloggempa sampai tahun 2016,

Trenching and Dating

Geo electric survey

Investigation of Lembang Fault (near Bandung) Natawijaya et al. 2016

(b) - pemutakhiran data sumber gempa berdasarkan studi sesar aktif terkini denganmemanfaatkan geo electric survey, trenching, dan carbon dating dalam studipaleoseismologi yang dilakukan oleh tim Geologi.

11

5. Toru

6. Angkola

8. Sumpur

1.Seulimeum

13. Dikit

14. Ketaun

11. Suliti 15. Musi

16. Manna

17. Kumering

18.Semangko

19.Sunda

9. Sianok

7. Barumun

4. Renun

2. Aceh

3. Tripa

10. Sumani

12. Siulak

50. Palu-Koro

53. Poso

58. Lawanopo

57. Gorontalo

52. Walanae 55. Tolo thrust

51. Matano

54. Batui thrust

73. Sorong-Maluku

72. Sula-Sorong

71. Tarera-Aidun

70. Yapen

75. Ransiki74. Sorong

79 Highland thrust belt

77. Manokwari trench

76. Membrano thrust tbelt

78. Lowland34. Wetar back arc

36. Flores back arc

33. Semarang

34. Jogja30. Bumiayu

32. Cimandiri

31. Baribis

Active Faults in The 2010 National Hazard Maps

Palu



ST-1

ST-3

ST-4

ST-5

ST-6

ST-9

ST-10

ST-39ST-40

ST-41

ST-42

ST-43

ST-46

ST-45

ST-44

T2-1

T2-3

T2-2

T2-7

T2-19

T2-20

ST-34

ST-35

ST-36

ST-37

ST-38

FACE2

EAST

50CM

A B C

DE

F G

ST-7

ST-8

ST-24

ST-25

ST-26

ST-29ST-28

ST-30

ST-31

ST-32

ST-33

TOP ST-26 CARBON

T2-5

T2-6

L2-4

T2-18

ABC

D E

F

G

50CM

FACE1

EAST

ST-1

ST-3

ST-4

ST-5

ST-6

ST-9

ST-10

ST-39ST-40

ST-41

ST-42

ST-43

ST-46

ST-45

ST-44

T2-1

T2-3

T2-2

T2-7

T2-19

T2-20

ST-34

ST-35

ST-36

ST-37

ST-38

FACE2

EAST

50CM

A B C

DE

F G

ST-7

ST-8

ST-24

ST-25

ST-26

ST-29ST-28

ST-30

ST-31

ST-32

ST-33

TOP ST-26 CARBON

T2-5

T2-6

L2-4

T2-18

ABC

D E

F

G

50CM

FACE1

EAST

T2-9

T2-8

T2-12T2-11T2-10

CARBON ST-24

FACE4

EAST

50CM

A

B C

D EF G

ST-11

ST-12

ST-13

ST-14

ST-15

ST-16

ST-17

ST-18

ST-19

ST-20ST-23

ST-21 UP

ST-22 UP

ST-21 DOWN

ST-22 DOWN

ST-11 CARBON

T2-16

T2-13

T2-15

T2-14

T2-17

AB

CD E

F

G

FACE3

EAST

50CM

AD1415-1460

102pMC (1909?)

AD1285-1390

Indication of cycle period of 130 years

1907&1909 2012 & ????

5.5±1.5m

14151285 ?

Palu-Koro Fault (Daryono, 2018)

Estimated rupture displacement = 4cm x 130 = 5.2m

Surface Rupture Offset of 5.2m at the Palu-Koro Fault Line



(c) Memanfaatkan relokasi lebih dari 12.000 episenter yang dilakukan oleh PokjaSeismologi

Vektor pergeseran episenter hasil relokasi untuk seluruh wilayah Indonesia

(Widiyantoro et al., 2016)

19

(d) Memanfaatkan analisis regangan berdasarkan data GPS sampai tahun 2016oleh Pokja Geodesi

Velocity field dari data GPS 1995-2016 (Susilo et al., 2016)

Strain Indonesia dari data GPS (Meilano, 2016)20

Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN) Revisi SNI-1726:2018



(2)

(3)

(5)

(6) (13)

(12)

(e) Penyempurnaan melalui peningkatan kualitas tomografi dengan menggunakan3D velocity model oleh Pokja Seismologi untuk menghasilkan geometri subduksilempeng yang lebih rinci

Tomography of subduction based on relocation using 3D velocity model (Widiyantoro et al, 2016)

21 22

(f) Penyempurnaan oleh Pakja Geologi dengan merevisi lokasi dari jalur sesar aktifyang sudah dipetakan sebelumnya dan menambahkan banyak jalur-jalur sesar aktifyang belum diperhitungkan dalam peta 2010.

Active Faults in Sumatera

23

Active Faults in Sulawesi24



25 26

Kementerian PUPRKajian Sesar Baribis dan Sesar Aktif Jakarta Tahun 2018

New Utah fault data: Working Groups (Petersen, 2008)

Wasatch megatrench (NEHRP) Wasatch fault parameters28



Subduction Megathrust

Subduction Benioff

Fault/ Shallow Crustal

Background

+ BC Hydro (Addo et al. 2012)

+ BC Hydro (Addo et al. 2012)+ Zhao et al. 2006

NGA West-2 2014:• Abrahamson et al.• Boore et al. • Campbell and Bozorgnia• Chiou and Youngs• Idriss

GMPE for 2010 Maps:2017 Maps:

OpenQuake Software

(g) Memperhitungkan GMPE terakhir setelah Gempa Tohoku dan NGA-West2 serta Software terbaru

29

Routine Meeting and Discussion, Workshop, Review, and Verification

30

Verification

Australian National University (melalui DMInnovation/BNPB)

"Global Earthquake Hazard and Risk ModelWorkshop and Meeting”

June 2017, Pavia, Italy31

PE in yrs

Return Period (yrs) 100 200 500 1.000 2.500 5.000 10.000

Probabilistic Hazard Maps:

Deterministic Hazard Maps: For Fault and Megathrust Subduction

0.2 sT

1.0 s

SS

S1

Spectral acceleration at bedrock SB for selected return periods of earthquakes

PGA

0.0

Hazard Maps 2017

50

20% 10 yrs

10% 10 yrs

10% 50 yrs

5% 10 yrs

7% 75 yrs

2% 50 yrs

2% 100 yrs

1% 100 yrs

Atas nama:UI

ITB UGM UNDIPHATTI




TIM PEMUTAKHIRAN PETA SUMBER DAN BAHAYA GEMPA INDONESIA 2017

• Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (Ketua)• Ir. Lutfi Faizal (Wakil Ketua)

• Dr. Danny Hilman Natawidjaja (Ketua Pokja Geologi)• Dr. Irwan Meilano (Ketua Pokja Geodesi)• Prof. Dr. Sri Widiyantoro (Ketua Pokja Seismologi)

• Dr. Wahyu Triyoso (Ketua Pokja Katalog)

PETA SUMBER DAN BAHAYA GEMPA INDONESIA 2017

• Ariska Rudyanto, M.Phil. (Ketua Pokja GMPE)• Dr. Sri Hidayati (Ketua Pokja SHA)

• Dr. M. Asrurifak• Dr. M. Ridwan• Prof. Dr. Phil Cummins

Kementerian Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat

Kerja sama:

Jakarta, 4 September 2017Menteri Pekerjaan Umum dan Perumahan Rakyat

M. Basuki Hadimuljono

Peta percepatan puncak di batuan dasar (SB) untuk probabilitas terlampaui 10% dalam 50 tahun

Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Bedrock SB for 10% Probability of Exceedance in 50 yrs (500 yrs earthquake)

33









Kerja sama:

Hazard PGA 7% in 75y




Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Bedrock SB for 7% Probability of Exceedance in 75 yrs (1,000 yrs earthquake)

34










Kerja sama:



Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) at Bedrock SB for 2% Probability of Exceedance in 50 yrs (2,500 yrs earthquake)

35

Peta Gempa Indonesia 2010 (Gempa 500 thn) Peta Gempa Indonesia 2017 (Gempa 500 thn)

Peraturan Beton Indonesia 1966 Peraturan Muatan Indonesia 1970

Standar Perencanaan Ketahanan Gempa untukStruktur Bangunan Gedung SNI 1727-2002 (Gempa 500 thn)

Peraturan Perencanaan Tahan Gempa Indonesia untuk Gedung 1983

36



Peta 2002 Peta 2017Peta 2010

0.15g ±0.15g ±0.180g

Hazard PGA 10% dalam 50 tahun (Gempa 500 tahun) Kota Medan


Peta 2010 Peta 2017

Peta PGA 2,500 tahun

38

Peta 2010

Peta 2017

Peta PGA 2,500 tahun

39


PGA Peta Gempa 2010(Perioda ulang 2.500 tahun)


40












3. Peta Gempa untuk SNI 1726-2019: MCEG, MCER (Ss dan S1), TL, CRs, dan CR1




Implementation of the Indonesian Hazard Maps 2010 in Earthquake Resistance Building and Infrastructure Design Codes

Offshore Platforms: 2,500 yrs

Metro Tunnels1,000 yrs

Railway Bridges: 500-1000 yrsDams: 2,500-10,000 yrs

BuildingsReturn period of earthquake 2,500 yrs

and 1% risk of collapse in 50 yrs BridgesReturn period of earthquake 1,000 yrs

Port and Airport

Peruntukan Periode ulang Umur

rencana

Probabilitas

terlampaui

Kriteria keamanan Referensi

Bangunan gedung

dan non-gedung

2.500 Tahun 50 Tahun 2% Kemungkinan

Terlampaui/

1% Risiko Runtuh

- SNI 1726:2012

SNI 1726-2019

Jembatan

konvensional

1.000 75 7% - SNI 2833:2016

AASHTO (2012)

Dinding penahan

abutmen jembatan

1.000 75 7% - FK>1,5 (terhadap geser saat

mengalami beban statik)

- FK>2 (terhadapguling saat mengalami

beban statik)

- FK>1,1 (terhadap beban pseudostatik)

WSDOT,

FHWA-NJ-2005-002

Timbunan oprit FK>1,1

Bendungan 10.000

Safety Evaluation

Earthquake (SEE)

100 1% Tidak terjadi aliran air yang tidak

terkendali

- Deformasi tidak melebihi 0,5 dari

tinggi jagaan

-Deformasi pada filter tidak boleh

melebihi 0,5 tebal filter

- Spillway tetap berfungsi setelah

terjadi gempa rencana

ICOLD No 148, 2016,

145

Operating Basis

Earthquake (OBE)

100 50%- Kerusakan minor setelah terjadi

gempa rencana

Bangunan

pelengkap

bendungan

2500 50 2% -

Terowongan 1.000 tahun 100 10%

SNI GEOTEKNIKTabel 52 – Kriteria Perancangan Gempa Berdasarkan Peruntukan Infrastruktur



Updating of Bridge Design Standard in Indonesia

2012-2013

Development in USA:

USA standard updated regularly to accommodate the reliability of the bridge, especially in term of seismic hazard analysis

Indonesia standard and technical guideline are revised to keep up with the International advancement

Development in Indonesia:

1998 2005 2007 2010

2008 2013

Refered to Departement of transportation, California, 1976 (Report 579)

1992

?• 1,000 years return of period (7% in 75 years)• PGA and spectral response at 0.2 and 1.0 sec.

500 years return of period

Revision has been completed according

to AASHTO 2012

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OF BRIDGE CODE SNI-2833 SNI 2008 SNI 2016

Seismic Maps at Bedrock

- PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration)


- Ss (Spectral Acceleration 0.2 sec)

- S1 (Spectral Acceleration 1.0 sec)

Partial Adoption from

Development of Design Response Spectra

PGA

2.5xPGA

CvT

SS

S1

T (sec)0.2 1.00

Sp

ect

ra A

cce

lera

tio

n (

g)

T (sec)0

PGAds

S1T

1 Maps 500 years:3 Maps 1,000 years:

PGA for Indonesian Earthquake Bridge Code 2016

PGA for Indonesian Earthquake Bridge Code 2008

https://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=-8IrVFKdrL0vtM&tbnid=WCOGk8iGo5i0rM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=https://bookstore.transportation.org/collection_detail.aspx?ID=124&ei=kxCTUrX7DYWKrQel3YCYBw&psig=AFQjCNG2fUnhVqo3_nHhI2czQv2kyww4rQ&ust=1385456119847818

http://www.thetechstandard.com/image/cache/data/00000000000000004208-1-500x500.jpg













Updating of Indonesian Earthquake Resistance Building Code SNI-1726

SNI 03-1726-1989,

“Tata Cara Perencanaan

Ketahanan Gempa

Untuk Rumah dan Gedung”,

Kantor Menteri Negara

Pekerjaan Umum,

Dit.Bintek,

Ditjen Cipta Karya, 1997

R

SNI 1726-2019 (Seismic Resistance Design for Building Structures and non Building Structures)

Partially adopted from ASCE 7-16

50

Tim Struktur Bawahdan Kontributor

SNI 1726 -2018

51Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN)

1 Prof. Ir. Masyhur Irsyam, MSE., Ph.D.

2 Andhika Sahadewa ST., MSE., Ph.D.

3 Dr. Ir. M. Asrurifak, MT.

4 Prof. Dr. Ir. I Wayan Sengara

5 Ir. Sindhu Rudianto, MSCE.

6 Prof. Dr. Ir. Widjojo Adi Prakoso

7 Dr. Ir. Windu Partono, M.Sc

8 Hendriyawan, ST., MT., Ph.D.

9 Dr. M. Ridwan

10 Andri Mulia, ST., MS.c

11 Ir. Bigman M. Hutapea, M.Sc. Ph.D.

12 Ir. Wahyu Wuryanti, MSC.

13 Simon Dertha Tarigan, ST., MT.

14 Dr. Endra Susila, MT.

15 Dr. Ir. Agus Darmawan Adi

16 Daniel Hutabarat, ST., M.Sc

17 Requel Mikhail, ST., MT.

18 Prof. Dr. Ir. Indra Jati Sidi*

19 Dr. Ir. FX. Toha*

Diskusi Struktur Atas dan Struktur Bawah, 21 Januari 2018

Teleconference dengan Dr Nico Luco USGS tentang Risk Map, 22 Januari 2018

52



Rapat Pleno, 20 Maret 2018

Diskusi Struktur Bawah tentang Risk Map dan Aspek Geoteknik, 20 April 2018

53

Beberapa Kali Diskusi Tim Struktur Bawah Setelah Rapat TABG DKI

54

Rapat Pra-Konsensus SNI-1726:2018 3 Desember 2018

55

Rapat Konsensus SNI-1726:2018 17 Desember 2018



Jepit

Liquefaction potential

sactive/passive

PGAMap of PGA (MCEG):•Probabilistic 2500 yrs +•Deterministic

Upper Structure

Seismic Base Shear

Sub Structure

Maps of Ss and S1 of MCER:•Probabilistic+•Deterministic +•Fragility

Risk of Collapse 1% in 50 yrs

Map of TL :•De-Agregation

Design Response Spectra

Application of Earthquake Maps in ASCE 2016

57

Jepit


sactive/passive

PGAMap of PGA (MCEG):•Probabilistic 2500 yrs +•Deterministic

Upper Structure

Sub Structure


58

SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OF BUILDING CODE SNI-1726

- Probabilistic SHA

Criteria for PGA Maps

10% PoE in 50 yrs (500 yrs eq) - 2% PoE in 50 yrs (2,500 yrs eq)- Deterministic PGA

- 2% PoE in 50 yrs (2,500 yrs eq)- Deterministic PGA

Developed based on

- Probabilistic SHA- Deterministic SHA


Seismic Hazard Analysis

SNI 2002 SNI 2012 SNI 2019


MCEG (Maximum Considered Earthquake)

Probabilistic 2500 yrs DeterministicCombination of

Near-Fault Criteria

Probabilistic 2500 yrs

Deterministic 84th percentile

Plateau 1.5XUBC Design

SA

Fault Distance

(E.V. Leyendecker)

MCE

60



ASCE 7-05 / IBC-2009 ASCE 7-10 ASCE 7-16

SNI 2010

1.5 x Median 1.8 x Median 1.8 x Median

SNI 2019

KESEPAKATAN UNTUK PARAMETER 84th PERCENTILEUNTUK PETA DETERMINISTIK UNTUK DEKAT SESAR

Increase in PGA Deterministik= 20% for the same Mmax


Bentuk Dasar Response Spektra SNI 2012

Belum ada daerah Constant Displacement

Sudah ada daerah Constant Displacement

SNI 2019


SIGNIFICANT CHANGES OF BUILDING CODE SNI-1726 SNI 2002 SNI 2012 SNI 2019

Seismic Maps at Bedrock

- PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration) - PGA (Peak Ground Acceleration)






- TL (Long-Period Transition Periods)

Partial Adoption from

Development of Design Response Spectra

PGA

2.5xPGA

CvT

SDS=(2/3)SS

SD1=(2/3)S1

T (sec)0.2 1.00

Sp

ect

ra A

cce

lera

tio

n (

g)

T (sec)0

0.4Sds

SD1T

SDS=(2/3)SS

SD1=(2/3)S1

T (sec)0.2 1.00 TL

SD1T

SD1 TL

T2

0.4Sds

1 Maps: 3 Maps: 4 Maps:

63

Jepit


sactive/passive

PGA

Upper Structure

Seismic Base Shear

Maps of Ss and S1 of MCER:•Probabilistic+•Deterministic +•Fragility

Risk of Collapse 1% in 50 yrs







Pf = ʃ0

∞

H(a)dPf(a)

dada

Risk/probability of collapse Hazard

Fragility Curve(Conditional probability of failure)

Capacity

RTGM

MCER Risk-Targeted Ground Motion

Luco, 2009

ASCE-2010 and 2016: 1% Risk of Collapse in 50 yrs (= 1/5000 per yr)

=1/5000

𝟏

𝒂𝜷 𝟐𝛑𝐞𝐱𝐩 −

𝐥𝐧 𝒂−(𝐥𝐧(𝐑𝐓𝐆𝐌)+𝟏.𝟐𝟖𝜷) 𝟐

𝟐𝜷𝟐

Structural Capacity

b

b


EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models

“Recent Updates to the MCER Ground Motion Maps in U.S. Building Codes,” N. Luco (USGS) August 1,

2016

3rd International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Management

MCER Ground Motion

AspectsIn ASCE 7-10 In ASCE 7-16

1. USGS National Seismic

Hazard Model (NSHM) Basis2008 2014

2. Fragility-curve slope b = 0.8 b = 0.6

3. Definition of “active”

faults for deterministic

ground motion caps

None

Quaternary (last

~12K years) slip, or

slip rate >0.1mm/yr

4. Max-direction ÷ geomean

scale factors

1.1 for SS

& 1.3 for S1

Unchanged, but

considered 1.2 for SS

& 1.25 for S1

SNI 2019b=0.65b Minimum untuk site specific analysis=0.55

SNI 2012b= 0.70b Minimum untuk site specific analysis=0.65

66


-Prof. Indra Jati -Prof. Wayan Sengara

EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models

“Recent Updates to the MCER Ground Motion Maps in U.S. Building Codes,” N. Luco (USGS) August 1,

2016

3rd International Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Disaster Management

MCER Ground Motion

AspectsIn ASCE 7-10 In ASCE 7-16

1. USGS National Seismic

Hazard Model (NSHM) Basis2008 2014

2. Fragility-curve slope b = 0.8 b = 0.6

3. Definition of “active”

faults for deterministic

ground motion caps

None

Quaternary (last

~12K years) slip, or

slip rate >0.1mm/yr

4. Max-direction ÷ geomean

scale factors

1.1 for SS

& 1.3 for S1

Unchanged, but

considered 1.2 for SS

& 1.25 for S1

67


-Prof. Masyhur Irsyam-Prof. Wayan Sengara

Sp

ect

ral A

cce

lera

tio

n SAN-S

SAE-W

T

SAgeometric mean = SAN-S SAE-WxV < SAmaximum

N

S

EW

SP (Strike-Parallel)SN (Strike-Normal)

Near Fault

ASCE 7-10 and 7016

68




ASCE 7-05 / IBC-2009 ASCE 7-10 ASCE 7-16

KESEPAKATAN UNTUK NILAI MAXIMUM DIRECTION FACTOR

Naik 5%Naik 13%

SS=SA0.2S1=SA1.0

SS=1.1 x SA0.2

S1=1.3 x SA1.0

SS=1.1 x SA0.2

S1=1.3 x SA1.0

SNI 2019

69



- Probabilistic SHA

Criteria for Seismic Maps for Development of Design Response Spectra

10% Probability of Exceedancein 50 yrs

1% Risk of Collapse in 50 yrs 1% Risk of Collapse in 50 yrs

Developed based on


- Fragility function ASCE


- Fragility function ASCE- De-Agregation (for TL)

No fragility function

Fragility Function

b = 0.70 b = 0.65

Seismic Hazard / Risk Analysis

SNI 2002 SNI 2012 SNI 2019

ASCE generic fragility curve equation

- No directivity factor

Directivity Factors for Maximum Directions

- 1.05 for SS

- 1.15 for S1

(average of UBC 2009 + ASCE 2010)

- 1.10 for SS

- 1.30 for S1

(follows ASCE 2010, 2016)

Increase in SS = 5% Increase in S1 = 13%70

Team for Development of 1% Risk of Collapse for SNI 2019:- Prof. Masyhur Irsyam- Prof. Wayan Sengara

- Dr. M. Asrurifak- Dr. Windu Partono

- Prof. Indra Djati Sidi- Daniel Hutabarat MSc

- Andi Mulya MSc

Surface Response Spectra for Jakarta(Fa and Fv from PEER)


Ss Risk-Adjusted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCER) 2019 Ground Motion Parameter for 0.2 s Spectral Response Acceleration

(5% of Critical Damping and Site Class BC)

SNI 1726:2018

73




SNI 1726:2019



SNI 1726:2019

SNI 1726:2018

S1 Risk-Adjusted Maximum Considered Earthquake (MCER) 2019 Ground Motion Parameter for 1.0 s Spectral Response Acceleration

(5% of Critical Damping and Site Class BC)

76

SNI 1726:2019




SNI 1726:2019


Map of TL Long-Period Transition Periods


Jepit


sactive/passive

PGA

Upper Structure

Seismic Base Shear




TL


DEVELOPMENT OF TL

1. Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis: 2% in 50yr for SA 2.0sec → Value of spectral hazard

M Tc (detik)

6.0 – 6.5 4

6.5 – 7.0 6

7.0 – 7.5 8

7.5 – 8.0 12

8.0 – 8.5 16

8.5 – 9.0+ 20

Modal magnitude versus corner period (Crouse et al., 2006)

2. De-Agregation Analysis: 2% in 50yr for SA 2.0sec →Modal M




83

Pemuthakhiran Peta Gempa Indonesia 2017

84

Depth (km)

Katalog PuSGeN 2016: all Shocks (1900-2016)

• EHB (1960-2008) • USGS (1973-2016) • ISC-GEM (1907-2004) • Relocated BMKG data (2009-2015)





Kesepakatan Konsensus Nasional Tentang TLDisepakati TL minimum = 6.0 sec












6 cm/yr Subduction ZoneM antle

AmericanMiddle

Trench Bedrock

Surfacial layer

Ax

6 cm/yr Subduction ZoneM antle

AmericanMiddle

Trench

B4-5x

C

21x

1-D wave propagation

Effect of local soil condition

Ground Surface

Bedrock SB

30mParameter

dinamis tanah




Kelas Situs untuk Disain Gempa (Pasal 5.3)

Klasifikasi Site (m/dt) (kPa)

A. Batuan Keras > 1500 N/A N/A

B. Batuan 750 < < 1500 N/A N/A

C. Tanah Sangat Padat dan Batuan Lunak

350 < < 750 >50 > 100

D. Tanah Sedang 175 < < 350 15 < < 50 50 < < 100

E. Tanah Lunak < 175 <15 < 50Atau setiap profil lapisan tanah dengan ketebalan lebih dari 3 m dengan karateristik sebagai berikut :

1.Indeks plastisitas, PI > 20,

2.Kadar air (w) > 40%, dan

3.Kuat geser tak terdrainase < 25 kPa

sV N uS

Klasifikasi site(SNI-2002, UBC-97, IBC-2009, ASCE 7-10, ASCE 7-16)

F. Tanah KhususPerlu analisis khusus Site Specific Response Analysis (likuifaksi, gambut, ekspansif dll)

Bedrock SBC

SMS = Fa SS SM1 = Fv S1

0.2 T

Sp

ect

ral A

cce

lera

tio

n

1.0

SS

S1

0.2T

Sp

ect

ral A

cce

lera

tio

n

SMS = Fa SS

SM1 = Fv S1

1.0

Spectra at Bedrock SBC

PGA

0.0

SPGA = Fpga PGA

Local Site Effect and Amplification Factors in SNI 2019

Spectra at Ground Surface

Soil Type

Fa FvFpga

SS S1PGA

Ground Surface

SPGA = Fpga PGA

0.0



- FPGA ASCE 7-12- Fa ASCE 7-12- Fv ASCE 7-12

Amplification Factors for Local Site Effects

- FPGA UBC 1997 - FPGA PEER 2013/ASCE 7-16- Fa PEER 2013- Fv PEER 2013

SNI 2002 SNI 2012 SNI 2018




Koefisien Situs, FPGA (Tabel 10, pasal 6.7.3)


Site

Class

Ss < 0.25 Ss=0.5 Ss=0.75

SNI 2012 ASCE 7-16 PEER SNI 2012 ASCE 7-16 PEER SNI 2012 ASCE 7-16 PEER

A 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

B l.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9

C 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.2

D 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1.2

E 2.5 2.4 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.2 1.3 1.3

Site

Class

Ss= 1.0 Ss= 1.25 Ss> 1.5


A 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

B 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9

C 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 1.2

D 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0

E 0.9 SS 1.1 0.9 SS 0.9 0.9 SS 0.8

SNI 2018 follows PEER 2013

SS: Site Specific Response Analysis

Short-Period Site Coefficient Fa (Tabel 6, Pasal 6.2)

96Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN) Sosialisasi Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia 2017 dan Revisi SNI-1726:2019

Site

Class

S1 < 0.1 S1=0.2 S1=0.3


A 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

B l.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8

C 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

D 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.8 2.0 2.0

E 3.5 4.2 4.2 3.2 SS 3.2 2.8 SS 2.8

Site

Class

S1= 0.4 S1 = 0.5 S1 > 0.6


A 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8

B 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8

C 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.4

D 1.6 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.7 1.7

E 2.4 SS 2.4 2.4 SS 2.2 2.4 SS 2.0

Long-Period Site Coefficient Fv (Tabel 7, Pasal 6.2)SNI 2018 follows PEER 2013

SS: Site Specific Response Analysis

97Prof. Dr. Masyhur Irsyam (ITB-HATTI-PuSGeN) Sosialisasi Peta Sumber dan Bahaya Gempa Indonesia 2017 dan Revisi SNI-1726:2019

Perubahan “Site Factor” diambil dari studi Prof. Jon Stewart yangdipublikasikan dalam PEER 2013-13 berjudul “Semi-Empirical Nonlinear SiteAmplification and its Application in NERHP Site Factors”, dimana:

• Data gempa yang dipakai dalam perumusan “Site Factor” dalam GMPE dariNGA West-2 berjumlah sekitar 1200+ sites dan diambil dari data gempaseluruh dunia (California, Jepang, Taiwan). Data ini jauh lebih banyakdaripada data gempa yang dipakai dalam SNI-2012 yang kebanyakan diambildari gempa California.

• Referensi kecepatan bedrock yang dipakai sudah dikonversi dari Vs = 1080m/det (GMPE), setara dengan Vs (hazard map) =760 m/det.

DASAR PERUBAHAN(Sindhu Rudiyanto)

98













SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

100

SE

SC

SD

Bedrock


SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

102



0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Spe

ctra

l Acc

ele

rati

on

(g)

Period (second)

Design Spectra for Jakarta SNI 2018 and 2012

Bedrock (SNI-2018)

Site Class C (SNI-2018)

Site Class D (SNI-2018)

Site Class E (SNI-2018)

Bedrock (SNI-2012)




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Spe

ctra

l Acc

ele

rati

on

(g)

Period (second)

Design Spectra for Bandung SNI 2018 and 2012

Bedrock (SNI-2018)




Bedrock (SNI-2012)




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Spe

ctra

l Acc

ele

rati

on

(g)

Period (second)

Design Spectra for Semarang SNI 2019 and 2012

Bedrock (SNI-2018)




Bedrock (SNI-2012)




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock


0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0Sp

ect

ral A

cce

lera

tio

n (g

)

Period (second)

Design Spectra for Surabaya SNI 2019 and 2012

Bedrock (SNI-2018)




Bedrock (SNI-2012)




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

107

SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

108

SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

109

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0

Spe

ctra

l Acc

ele

rati

on

(g)

Period (second)

Design Spectra for Surakarta SNI 2018 and 2012

Bedrock (SNI-2018)




Bedrock (SNI-2012)




SE

SC

SD

Bedrock

110



Thankyou for the continuous support from:

Ministry of Transportation

IABI

UniversitasIndonesia

T0:

peta sumber dan bahaya gempa indonesia 2017: … · 2019-05-16 · prof. dr. ir. masyhur irsyam...

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