soal jwb rumus mi a1 peramalan fix

8/20/2019 Soal Jwb Rumus Mi a1 Peramalan Fix

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Bulan Ke- (x) Jumlah Penjualan (ton) (y) Di -> A=121 350 3582 5! "#3 5! 55# 5#1 5#!5 555 5"3

" 5#1 5#!# "28 "3"8 "8 "5"! "55 ""3

10 #1" #211 #50 #5812 ##0 ##813#8 #222 #318 "08

$x%2


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3/8

METODE REGRESI x & ' xiyi1 "5 "0!8333333333 3582 !33 1"#1 231"5 2815

" 3## 528 528! 5!"#

10 #2011 833812 !33"13

$ (i*ma) #8 521!

METODE MOVE AVERAGE x +A ei ei,123 "0"""# 1183333333333 1002#85 533333 28"""""""""# 821###8" 5""3333 12"""""""""# 1"0# 5#3"""# "23333333333 38858 5!2"""# "33333333333 011111! "23"""# 3!3333333333 15#111

10 "51"""# #23333333333 523211111 "81 ## 5!2!12 #15 "3 3!"!13 #533333 .

$ (i*ma) #8 53!! 53# 3!558#8

METODE EXPONENT SMOOTH x /t ei ei,01 1 0 358 1281"

2 358 312 185!333 #8!2 #808 2285"05 12"#28 522#2 205505 1#1!552 3!108 152!1"" 21105!# 3"#!032 1353801

= 01


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# 2#853# 3881"288 150"5#58 28"""83 3"!331"5!2 13"05!! 323"015 33!3!8!328 1151!13

10 35#51 3""58"3!52 132!1!11 3!18#2 3"3812##!55"8 13235!#12 305"85 3#31501"011 120#08"

13 "5311" .$ (i*ma) #8 2""88 "5311"855! 182511!

05 x /t ei ei,1 0 358 1281"2 1#! 288 82!3 323 23 5#5" 0 13! 1!321

5 50!5 535 28"225" 53"25 2#5 182#5"3# 55#"25 #83#5 "12"18 5!"8125 5!18#5 35031"! "2"0"3 3"5!3#5 133!103

10 "#031 #!2!"8#5 "28#!!11 "8351" #3"83#5 520!212 #211#58 5"82218#5 3228!!213 #!58#! .

$ (i*ma) #8 581882 1!!1#5#8125 3158008

0! x /t ei ei,1 0 358 1281"2 3222 18 20!"#03 5252 108 10!1"0# 5"552 328 10528#35 5#5#552 -12#552 1"2"!51" 5"2#55 1#28 21"8103# 5##52#" 58#28 31!02#

8 "301528 258#28 ""80801! "53153 !58#28 !18""!

10 ""2015 "1!58#28 383885211 #1#802 01!58#28 1"15#0"12 #53!80 201!58#25 5#"!0513 ##55!8 .

$ (i*ma) #8 "5"22 8"1##5"01"!#3 1#1"!0

= 05

= 0!


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a ei0821588""## "0!300"!!3 "05315!5""08 -25531" "51855

"0"13"183285 -1#13"2 21"!0""0"!5###2!!"2 -5#!5### 335!103

"0###!3"1"" -3"##!3" 1352#21"08"00!50331# -53"00!5 28#30"2

"0!22538!!!5 -38225 1#"2!2"10212#""#2 1##558# 3152#1"110"5#1"33! 3"!328 13"11"1188#305002# 3112"! 1858#0"12#088!3"#0 1032!11 10""!05"13530823382 13""!5 18"23!3"13520#1005! 155"#! 222"28

.#318 -!" 152!532

+. RUMUS3296.5648148148

METODE REGRESI

y=axyrata2=y!"

4##"$ . #%&2$$ ' ##%&2$$

a=y-xei=y-y%

+.=.+4n n=12

METODE MOVE AVERAGE

+.152(93.25669(823 +A(x3)= y(x1x3)43

ein=yn-+An

+.=.+4n n=12

6% ei,

x7ata2=$x4n

)=##"$$ . #% . y$$ ' ##%$ . #y$$

.=$ei%2

.=$ei%2


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METODE EXPOSMOOTH

ein= 6n - /tn

+.=.+4n n=12

+.26316.*328656514

+.143(*.4968(155*1

/tn= /t(n-1)(At(n-1) - /t(n-1)

.=$ei%2


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+.12*46.1

$


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soal jwb rumus mi a1 peramalan fix

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