DAFTAR ISI

JUDUL.................................................................................................................................i

RINGKASAN.....................................................................................................................iiDAFTAR ISI.....................................................................................................................iii

BAB 1. PENDAHULUAN.................................................................................................11.1 Latar Belakang......................................................................................................1

1.2 Perumusan Masalah..............................................................................................2

1.3 Tujuan...................................................................................................................2

1.4 Luaran yang Diharapkan......................................................................................2

1.5 Manfaat Program..................................................................................................2

BAB 2. TINJAUAN PUSTAKA........................................................................................2

2.1 Temperatur Udara.................................................................................................3

2.2 Curah Hujan..........................................................................................................3

2.3 Extreme Value Theory..........................................................................................3

2.4 Peaks Over Threshold..........................................................................................3

2.5 Return Level..........................................................................................................4

BAB 3. METODOLOGI PENELITIAN..........................................................................43.1 Sumber Data dan Variabel Penelitian...................................................................4

3.2 Langkah Analisis..................................................................................................4

BAB 4. HASIL YANG DICAPAI.....................................................................................5

4.1 Deskripsi Data Curah Hujan.................................................................................5

4.1.1 Identifikasi Pola Data Heavy Tail Data Curah Hujan dan Nilai Ekstrim.............6

4.1.2 Pengambilan Sampel Ekstrim dengan Metode POT............................................7

4.1.3 Pemeriksaan Kesesuaian Distribusi Generalized Pareto.....................................4

4.2 Estimasi Parameter GPD dan Nilai Return Level Curah Hujan...........................9

4.2.1 Estimasi Parameter GPD......................................................................................9

4.2.2 Nilai Return Level Curah Hujan...........................................................................9

BAB 5. KENDALA YANG DIHADAPI........................................................................10BAB 6. RENCANA TAHAPAN SELANJUTNYA.......................................................11

DAFTAR PUSTAKA.......................................................................................................11

DAFTAR GAMBAR

Gambar 1. Estimasi Kenaikan Temperatur Rata-Rata Gobal...........................................1

Gambar 2. Diagram Alir Tinjauan Pustaka......................................................................2

Gambar 4.1 Histogram Curah Hujan Harian di Stasiun Pengamatan Tangerang..............7

Gambar 4.2 Pengambilan Sampel Ekstrem Stasiun Pengamatan Tangerang.....................7

Gambar 4.3 Probability Plot dan Quantile Plot..................................................................8

Gambar 4.4 Prediksi Return Level Setiap Periode...........................................................10

DAFTAR TABELTabel 4.1 Statistika Deskriptif Curah Hujan Harian (mm).................................................6

Tabel 4.2 Skewness dan Kurtosis........................................................................................7

Tabel 4.3 Nilai Threshold...................................................................................................8

Tabel 4.4 Estimasi Parameter..............................................................................................9

Tabel 4.5 Prediksi Return Level........................................................................................10