cuba oil negative - unt 2014.docx

8/9/2019 Cuba Oil Negative - UNT 2014.docx

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Cuba Oil Neg



CPs



Oil Spills



Oil Spills CP

Text: The United States federal government should amend theCuban Democracy ct of !""# to allo$ for limited% spill&related

coordination and communication $ith the Cuban government'President (arac) Obama should issue an export&only industry&$ide general license for oil spill response in Cuban $aters%e*ective immediately'

+icense US oil companies for spill related coordination andclean&up , CP solves the impact to any oil spill and does notloosen the embargo , that prevents a political bac)lashMelissa (ert (a military fellow (U.S. Coast Guard) at the Council on ForeignRelations) and Blake Clayton (fellow for energy and national security at the

Council on Foreign Relations) #-!# !ddressing the Risk of a Cu"an #il S$ill%&htt$'www.cfr.orgcu"aaddressingriskcu"anoils$ill$*+,-,

The imminent drilling of Cuba.s /rst o*shore oil $ell raises the prospect of a large&scale oil spill in Cuban $aters $ashing onto U'S' shores'0ashington should anticipate this possibility by implementing policiesthat $ould help "oth countries go/ernments stem and clean up an oil spille*ectively. These policies should ensure that both the U'S' governmentand the domestic oil industry are operationally and /nancially ready to

deal $ith any spill that threatens U'S' $aters. These policies should be as

minimally disruptive as possible to the country.s broader Cuba strategy .0

1he 2ro"lem0

! Chinese"uilt semisu"mersi"le oil rig leased "y Re$sol& a S$anish oil com$any& arri/ed in Cu"anwaters in 3anuary *4-* to drill Cu"as 5rst e6$loratory o7shore oil well. 8arly estimates suggest that Cu"an o7shoreoil and natural gas reser/es are su"stantial9somewhere "etween 5/e "illion and twenty "illion "arrels of oil andu$ward of eight "illion cu"ic feet of natural gas. !lthough the United States ty$ically welcomes greater /olumes ofcrude oil coming from countries that are not mem"ers of the #rgani:ation of 2etroleum 86$orting Countries (#28C)&a surge in Cu"an oil $roduction would com$licate the United States decadesold e7ort to economically isolate the

Castro regime.0 Deep$ater drilling o* the Cuban coast also poses a threat tothe United States' The exploratory $ell is seventy miles o* the 1loridacoast and lies at a de$th of ,&;44 feet. The failed 2acondo $ell that triggered thecalamitous Deep$ater 3ori4on oil spill in !$ril *4-4 had broadly similarfeatures& situated fortyeight miles from shore and a$$ro6imately 5/e thousand feet "elow sea le/el. ! s$ill o7

Floridas coast could ra/age the states <,+ "illion $er year tourism industry.0 0ashington cannotcount on the technical )no$&ho$ of Cuba.s unseasoned oil industry toaddress a spill on its o$n. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong

understanding of ho$ to prevent an o*shore oil spill or stem a deep&$ater$ell blo$out. 2oreover% the site $here the /rst $ells $ill be drilled is atough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf ofMe6ico& the surface currents in the area where Re$sol will "e drilling mo/e at a "risk three to four knots& whichwould "ring oil from Cu"as o7shore wells to the Florida coast within si6 to ten days. Skimming or "urning the oilmay not "e feasi"le in such fastmo/ing water. 1he most& and $ossi"ly only& e7ecti/e method to res$ond to a s$illwould "e surface and su"surface dis$ersants. =f dis$ersants are not a$$lied close to the source within four daysafter a s$ill& uncontained oil cannot "e dis$ersed& "urnt& or skimmed& which would render standard res$onsetechnologies like containment "ooms ine7ecti/e.0 Re$sol has "een forthcoming in disclosing its s$ill res$onse $lansto U.S. authorities and allowing them to ins$ect the drilling rig& "ut the Russian and Chinese com$anies that are

http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515

http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515



already negotiating with Cu"a to lease acreage might not "e as coo$erati/e. >ad Re$sol not /olunteered to ha/ethe Cu"a"ound drilling rig e6amined "y the U.S. Coast Guard and Bureau of Safety and 8n/ironmental 8nforcement

to certify that it met international standards& ?ashington would ha/e had little legal recourse.0 Thecomplexity of U'S '&Cuba relations since the -@A* trade embargo complicateseven limited e*orts to put in place a spill response plan ' Under U'S' la$ and

with few e6ce$tions& merican companies cannot assist the Cuban government or

provide e5uipment to foreign companies operating in Cuban territory'0 Shortfalls in U'S' federal regulations governing commercial liability for oilspills pose a further problem' 1he #il 2ollution !ct of -@@4 (#2! @4) does not $rotect U.S. citi:ensand $ro$erty against damages stemming from a "lownout wellhead outside of U.S. territory. =n the case ofee$water >ori:on& B2 was lia"le des$ite "eing a foreign com$any "ecause it was o$erating within the UnitedStates. ?ere any of the wells that Re$sol drills to go haywire& the cost of funding a res$onse would fall to the #ilS$ill ia"ility 1rust Fund (#S1F)& which is woefully underca$itali:ed. #2! @4 limits the #S1F from $aying out morethan <,4 million in a 5scal year on oil remo/al costs& su"Dect to a few e6ce$tions& and reEuires congressionala$$ro$riation to $ay out more than <-,4 million.0 1he ?ay Forward0 !s a 5rst ste$& the United States shoulddiscuss contingency $lanning for a Cu"an oil s$ill at the regular multi$arty talks it holds with Me6ico& the Bahamas&Cu"a& and others $er the Cartagena Con/ention. 1he Cari""ean =sland #il 2ollution Res$onse and Coo$eration 2lan$ro/ides an o$erational framework under which the United States and Cu"a can Dointly de/elo$ systems foridentifying and re$orting an oil s$ill& im$lement a means of restricting the s$read of oil& and identify resources to

res$ond to a s$ill.0 0ashington should also instruct the U'S' Coast 6uard toconduct basic spill response coordination $ith its counterparts in Cuba' 1he

United States already has o$erational agreements in $lace with Me6ico& Canada& and se/eral countries in theCari""ean that call for routine e6ercises& emergency res$onse coordination& and communication $rotocols. 7tshould stri)e an agreement $ith Cuba that is substantively similar butnarro$er in scope% limited to basic spill&oriented advance coordination andcommunication' (efore that step can be ta)en& U'S' la$ma)ers may need to

amend the Cuban Democracy ct of !""# to allo$ for limited% spill&related

coordination and communication $ith the Cuban government' 8 e6t& 2resident

Barack Obama should issue an export&only industry&$ide general license for

oil spill response in Cuban $aters % e*ective immediately' 7ssuing that

license does not re5uire congressional authori4ation' The license shouldallo$ o*shore oil companies to do vital spill response $or) in Cuban

territory% such as capping a $ell or drilling a relief $ell. #il ser/ice com$anies& suchas >alli"urton& should "e included in the authori:ation.0 Finally& Congress should alter e6isting oil s$ill com$ensation$olicy. awmakers should amend #2! @4 to ensure there is a res$onsi"le $arty for oil s$ills from a foreign o7shoreunit that $ollutes or threatens to $ollute U.S. waters& like there is for /essels. Senator Ro"ert Menende: (3) andCongressman a/id Ri/era (RF) ha/e s$onsored such legislation. awmakers should eliminate the reEuirement forthe Coast Guard to o"tain congressional a$$ro/al on e6$enditures a"o/e <-,4 million for s$ills of nationalsigni5cance (as de5ned "y the ational Res$onse 2lan). !nd 2resident #"ama should a$$oint a commission todetermine the a$$ro$riate limit of lia"ility ca$ under #2! @4& "alancing the need to com$ensate /ictims with thedesire to retain strict lia"ility for $olluters.0 1here are two other& less essential measures U.S. lawmakers mayconsider that would ena"le the country to res$ond more ade$tly to a s$ill. =nstalling an earlyres$onse system"ased on acoustic& geo$hysical& or other technologies in the Straits of Florida would immediately alert the U.S.Coast Guard a"out a well "lowout or other unusual acti/ity. 1he U.S. e$artment of 8nergy should 5nd out fromRe$sol a"out the characteristics of Cu"an crude oil& which would hel$ U.S. authorities $redict how the oil would

s$read in the case of a well "lowout.0 efending U.S. =nterests0 n oil $ell blo$out in Cuban$aters $ould almost certainly re5uire a U'S' response' 0ithout changes in

current U'S' la$% ho$ever% that response $ould undoubtedly come farmore slo$ly than is desira"le. 1he Coast Guard would "e "arred from de$loying highly e6$eriencedman$ower& s$ecially designed "ooms& skimming eEui$ment and /essels& and dis$ersants. U.S. o7shore gas and oilcom$anies would also "e "arred from using wellca$$ing stacks& remotely o$erated su"mersi"les& and other /italtechnologies. !lthough a handful of U.S. s$ill res$onders hold licenses to work with Re$sol& their licenses do note6tend to well ca$$ing or relief drilling. 1he result of a slow res$onse to a Cu"an oil s$ill would "e greater& $erha$s

catastro$hic& economic and en/ironmental damage to Florida and the Southeast. 0 9*orts to re$ritecurrent la$ and policy to$ard Cuba% and encourag ing cooperation $ith its

government% could antagoni4e groups opposed to improved relations $ith



the Castro regime ' 1hey might $rotest any decision allowing U.S. federal agencies to assist Cu"a or

letting U.S. com$anies o$erate in Cu"an territory.0 3o$ever% ta)ing sensible steps to

prepare for a potential accident at an oil $ell in Cuban $aters $ould notbrea) ne$ ground or materially alter broader U'S' policy to$ard Cuba. Foryears& ?ashington has worked with >a/ana on issues of mutual concern. 1he United States routinely coordinateswith Cu"a on search and rescue o$erations in the Straits of Florida as well as to com"at illicit drug tracking andmigrant smuggling. uring the hurricane season& the ational #ceanic and !tmos$heric !dministration (#!!)$ro/ides Cu"a with information on Cari""ean storms.0 The recommendations proposed hereare narro$ly tailored to the speci/c challenges that a Cuban oil spill posesto the United States' They $ould not help the Cuban economy or military'0hat they $ould do is protect U'S' territory and property from a potentialdanger emanating from Cuba .0 Cuba $ill drill for oil in its territorial $aters

with or without the "lessing of the United States. Defending against a potential oil spillre5uires a modicum of advance coordination and preparation $ith the

Cuban government% $hich need not go beyond spill&related matters '

0ithout ta)ing these precautions% the United States ris)s a secondDeep$ater 3ori4on% this time from Cuba.



#nc Solvency

+icense oil companies to provide expertise for safe drilling andresponse e5uipment

Sarah Stephens (86ecuti/e irector of the Center for emocracy in the!mericas) and 3ake Colvin (Hice 2resident for Glo"al 1rade =ssues at the ationalForeign 1rade Council) @*@#-!! USCu"a $olicy& and the race for oil drilling%htt$'thehill.com"logscongress"logforeign$olicy-;IAA-uscu"a$olicyandtheraceforoildrilling)

To protect the national interest and for the sa)e of 1lorida.s "eaches and the6ulf of 2exico.s ecosystem it is time to stop stic)ing our heels in thesand $hen it comes to U'S'& Cuba policy. Before the end of the year& a Chinesemade drilling$latform known as Scara"eo @ is e6$ected to arri/e in the Gulf. #nce it is there& Cu"a and its foreign $artners&including S$ainJs Re$sol& will "egin using it to drill for oil in waters dee$er than ee$water >ori:onJs infamousMacondo well. 1he massi/e rig& manufactured to com$ly with U.S.content restrictions at a cost of <+,4 million& willcost Re$sol and other com$anies <I4+&444 $er day to lease for e6$loration. 1hey are taking this 5nancial risk

"ecause Cu"a needs the oil and its $artners 9 S$ain& orway& Russia& =ndia& Hietnam& Malaysia& Canada& !ngola&Hene:uela& and $ossi"ly China 9 "elie/e that drilling in waters said to contain undisco/ered reser/es of

a$$ro6imately , "illion "arrels of oil is good "usiness. 7n virtually every other country in the

world& developments li)e these $ould prompt high&level discussions aboutho$ to exploit these resources safely or to antici$ate a crisis were a disaster to strike.

9xperts $ho have studied the currents say a spill in Cuban $aters $ould

send "- percent of the oil into the ;eys and up the 9ast Coast of 1lorida.

But the em"argo lea/es FloridaJs sensiti/e coastal resources defenseless. Due to the fact that thedrilling involves Cuba& merican companies and $or)ers cannot lend theirexpertise to $hat could be a ris)y operation. U'S' economic sanctions

prevent our private sector from helping Cuba drill safely and paraly4e the

U'S' government& which ought to "e con/ening "ilateral discussions on "est $ractices andcoordinating disaster response. 7n fact% the U'S' has no emergency

response agreement $ith Cuba for oil spills' 0hile some speci/c licenses have

been granted to $ermit U.S. 5rms to conduct limited transactions with Cu"a& current sanctionsbar the United States from deploying the )ind of clean&up e5uipment%engineers% spare parts for blo$&out prevention% chemical dispersants% andrigs to drill relief $ells that $ould be needed to address an oil crisisinvolving Cuba. #ne welcomed de/elo$ment came earlier this month& when ?illiam Reilly& a former head ofthe U.S. 8n/ironmental 2rotection !gency and cochair of the Commission that in/estigated the ee$water >ori:on

disaster& led a grou$ of e6$erts to Cu"a to take a look at their $lans. ?hile the administration has donewell gi/ing $ermission to Mr. Reilly& as well as to other e6$erts& to discuss the $ro"lem with Cu"an counter$arts& it

should move more aggressively to $or) $ith the Cuban government to

cooperate on plans for safe drilling and res$onding to a $ossi"le crisis. Rather than mo/ingforward& some in the U.S. Congress would make the $ro"lem worse. Re$. =leana Rosehtinen (FR)& who critici:edMr. ReillyJs /isit to Cu"a as gi/ing credi"ility to the regimeJs dangerous oildrilling scheme&% has o7ered legislationto try and sto$ Re$sol from drilling. Re$. Hern Buchanan (FR) would deny Re$sol the right to drill in U.S. waters if ithel$ed Cu"a drill in its waters. 1hirtyfour mem"ers of "oth $arties ha/e written Re$sol directly& threatening thecom$any if it drills with Cu"a. Ket this tactic canJt work. 8/en if they could deter Re$sol from drilling L which isunlikely L they cannot sto$ Cu"a and $artners from countries like China& Russia& and Hene:uela& from using the rigand searching for oil. !t some $oint& it is likely that drilling will "egin and the United States ought to do what it can

to $re$are for that e/entuality. The U'S' government should facilitate access by Cubaand its drilling partners to the resources they need to drill safely ' 2resident

http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oil-drilling






Obama should instruct the Treasury Department to issue a blan)et

general license no$ that $ould allo$ private industry to provide $hat oilexpert 3orge 2ion calls <any conceivable response< in the event of a crisis '

0aiving embargo enforcement for oil safety solves'

Sarah Stephens (86ecuti/e irector of the Center for emocracy in the!mericas) #-!! !s Cu"a $lans to drill in the Gulf of Me6ico& U.S. $olicy $osesneedless risks to our national interest&%htt$'democracyinamericas.org$dfsCu"aNrillingNandNUSN2olicy.$df

Recommendations0 2ursue Unilateral !ctions0 O 1he Obama administration should aggressively and

com$rehensi/ely0 use its existing licensing authority to ensure the right /rms$ith the best0 e5uipment and expertise are in place to /ght the e7ects of an oilspill'0 O #F!C& the Treasury Department oce that administers and enforcestrade0 sanctions& should ma)e it clear that e*orts to protect safety during

drilling0 by U'S' entities $ill not be met $ith negative regulatory

conse5uences .0 OThe U'S' should ensure that comprehensive information&

sharing $ith the8 Cuban government is standard operating procedure%conducted openly8 $here possible% and $ithout impediments in areas suchas granting visas8 for Cuban scientists and o=cials to visit here8 Pursue(ilateral ctivities and greements8 >8 The U'S' should enter directdiscussions $ith Cuba on energy and8 environmental cooperation'8 >8 TheU'S' should loo) to existing models for "ilateral (such as 29?US) and0 trilateral

cooperation (as $ro$osed "y the ational Commission on the0 B2 ee$water >ori:on #il S$ill and #7shore

rilling) for environmental0 planning $ith Cuba'

http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf




# permutation , appeasement

9asing oil embargo causes appeasement' Cplan solves betterRichard Sado$s)i #-!! (is a Class of *4-* 3.. candidate& at >ofstra Uni/ersity0

School of aw& K. Mr. Sadowski is also the Managing 8ditor of 2roduction of0 the 3ournal of =nternational Business and aw Hol. P=. Cu"an #7shore rilling'2re$aration and0 2re/ention within the Framework of the United0 StatesJ 8m"argo%L 0 Sustaina"le e/elo$ment aw Q 2olicy0 Holume -* =ssue - Fall *4--' aturalResource Conicts !rticle -4 Lhtt$'digitalcommons.wcl.american.educgi/iewcontent.cgiTarticle-I@+Qconte6tsdl$

Cu"a $lans to drill se/en e6$loratory oil wells in the0 Gulf of Me6ico "y *4-I.- Some argue that the threat

of 0 Cuban o7shore oil drilling $ill increase the embargo@s0 costs and that U'S' oilcompanies $ill miss out on oil exploration0 that will go to foreign countries.* =n res$onse&

some U.S. lawmakers0 and U.S. oil lo""yists have advocated for an exception0 to the

Cuban embargo permitting energy cooperation.V otwithstanding0 these concerns& thelong&standing Cuban embargo is an0 economic restriction $ith a signi/cantpurpose and should not0 so easily be forsa)en'0 1his article argues that& des$ite the added

$ressure Cu"aJs0 o7shore oil de/elo$ments ha/e $laced on U.S. $olicy& the embargo@s0 t$in goals of bringing democracy to the Cuban people0 and ending their oppressive rule

have not been met' Thus% no$0 is not the time to lift or ease the embargo' 1he em"argo itself 0 ser/es to restrict Cu"aJs drilling e7ortsI and new legislation may0 further ham$er Cu"aJs

e6$loration., !dditionally% the economic0 concerns of the U'S' energy industry donot $arrant a change0 in the U'S' foreign policy to$ard Cuba% and thoseconcerns can0 be better met by tapping U'S' resources' 1urthermore% fearsof 0 a Cuban oil spill can be assuaged through less drastic measures0 suchas an oil spill emergency response agreement $ith Cuba%0 similar to the one that the

United States has enacted with Me6ico.

http://digitalcommons.wcl.american.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1497&context=sdlp






# cuba not cooperate

Cuba $ill cooperate $ith a US oil spills response planRichard Sado$s)i #-!! (is a Class of *4-* 3.. candidate& at >ofstra Uni/ersity0


Further& spill response planning can be implemented "efore0 drilling "egins. The United

States currently has oil spill response0 agreements $ith 2exicoA+ and Canada&A;

but not $ith Cuba.A@0 !s the ee$water >ori:on s$ill highlighted& $lanning for disaster0 is essential. Toachieve this goal% the United States can model a Cuban plan on the 3oint

Contingency Plan bet$een the United0 2exican States and the United States of!merica Aegarding0 Pollution of the 2aritime 9nvironment by Discharge of3ydrocarbons0 or Other 3a4ardous Substances B29?US Plan%).+40 1hat $lanoriginates from an agreement "etween Me6ico and0 the United States signed on 3uly *I& -@;4& and de/elo$ed in0 accordance with the =nternational Con/ention on #il 2ollution0 2re$aredness& Res$onse and Coo$eration& ado$ted

on o/em"er0 V4& -@@4.+- The Plan pre&designates onscene coordinators& a0 oint responseteam% res$onse coordination centers& ra$id noti5cation0 $rotocols& and communicationsprocedures for the e/ent0 of an oil disaster.+* The Plan has triumphed in testsimulations&0 which /alidates its conce$ts.+V0 1he United States must initiate the same le/el of $lanning0 with Cu"a. Gi/en the $ro6imity of $otential Cu"an wells0 to the Florida coast& the need for a contingency $lan is

clear.0 Fortunately& the 29?US Plan provides a guiding frame$or) 0 upon $hichthe U nited S tates and Cuba can dra$' 1urthermore%0 a recentCongressional report indicates that Cuba is open to0 certain bilateral

agreements with the United States& noting Raul0 CastroJs willingness to engage with the United Stateswhere0 mutual interests e6ist.+I Since an oil spill agreement is of mutual0 interest%both countries should $or) to draft and implement it'







# plan )ey 5uic) response

9xemptions solves for 5uic) responseSarah Stephens (86ecuti/e irector of the Center for emocracy in the

!mericas) #-!! !s Cu"a $lans to drill in the Gulf of Me6ico& U.S. $olicy $osesneedless risks to our national interest&%htt$'democracyinamericas.org$dfsCu"aNrillingNandNUSN2olicy.$df

The #"ama administration should use its e6isting authority now0 to a$ard licenses to/rms and indi/iduals $ith the e5uipment and0 expertise to /ght the e*ects of anoil spill.0 !s Ro"ert Muse and 3orge 2ion said last year& the administration has regula0 0 tory authority to$ro/ide licenses and $romulgate new regulations for any0 concei/a"le res$onse% to an en/ironmental $ro"lem inCu"a.0 ;V0 ?hile the Cu"an !ssets Control Regulations administered "y #F!C0 include a /ariety of $rohi"itions thatgenerally "ar U.S. $ri/ate sector $artici$ation& in/ol/ement or coo$eration in connection with the e6$loration0 or

de/elo$ment of energy sector resources associated with Cu"a& or related0 en/ironmental concerns& O1Cretains discretionary authority to license such0 acti/ities "y U.S. $ersons $here it isdetermined "y the e6ecuti/e "ranch to0 be consistent $ith U.S. national interests. Such

licensing determinations are0 generally within the sco$e of the authority of the 2resident of the United 0 States withres$ect to matters of U.S. foreign $olicy and national security.0 (y moving far beyond the meagerlicensing activity that has already0 ta)en place% the #"ama administrationcould ensure that the international0 oil companies $or)ing $ith Cuba have fullaccess to U'S' technology and0 $ersonnel in order to prevent andor manage ablo$out.0 Speed is of the essence in dealing $ith oil spills. 1he rate of oil s$reading&0the degradation of the com$ounds which may "e "urned& the creation of 0 emulsions& and the arri/al of storms are

all timesensiti/e /aria"les that can0 magnify the damage from a s$ill.0 Aather than subecting anenvironmental response to lengthy delays%0 this ne$ approach to licensing$ould enable helico$ters and e5uipment0 to reach the site of an environmentalproblem $ithin t$enty&four hours of 0 noti5cation. ! much more aggressi/e $lan is needed inad/ance& re$lacing0 the e6isting a$$roach of $ro/iding licenses on an a$$lication"ya$$lication0 "asis& so actioncan take $lace unencum"ered "y any regulatory delays at0 the onset of a crisis.





+and oil



+and oil !nc

Text: The United States federal government should allo$leasing rights on the production of crude oil on onshore federal

lands'Normal means for federal lands includes the OCS and landsNisan !# (Ma6& sta7 writer& ;@-*& CB#' #$ening !ll Federal ands 1o rilling?ont o Much For 1he e5cit%) htt$'www."usinessinsider.comunitedstatesdrilling*4-*;

Opening all 1ederal lands to oil and gas leasing has long "een a $oint of $olitical contention. 1he non$artisan Congressional Budget #ce $ut out a re$ort& at the reEuest of Chairman of the >ouseBudget Committee 2aul Ryan& that looks at the "udgetary e7ects of immediately o$ening all federallands to drilling. !ccording to the re$ort& that $ould include t$o primary areas: +ands$here leasing is no$ statutorily prohibited % notably& the !rctic ational ?ildlife RefugeBN0AE and Onshore and o*shore areas that are unavailable for leasing undercurrent administrati/e policies% including sections of the Outer Continental Shelf

B OCS Egenerally% the submerged lands bet$een F miles and #-- miles from

the tlantic% Paci/c% and 1lorida coastlines9and certain onshore areas in which oil andgas leasing is either restricted or tem$orarily $rohi"ited.

Opening up access to federal lands solves energy dominance%prices% and the economyBandow -* (oug& senior fellow at the Cato =nstitute& author of se/eral "ooks&-*-I-*& 8nergy to S$are% Cato =nstitute)htt$'www.cato.org$u"licationscommentaryenergys$are

To obtain this bright future government merely need reduce barriers toexisting energy production' 2ills$osits an e/en more a"undant energy future& howe/er. >e

as)ed: $hat $ould happen if policies $ere enacted to accelerate andencourage even greater expansion of North merican hydrocarbonproduction and to expand access to the vast tracts of federal lands that sitatop staggeringly large resourcesG 0hy not push beyond self&su=ciencyto energy inHuence% even dominanceG< The bene/ts of doing so areobvious' llo$ing an already important industry to greatly expand andturn into a signi/cant export mar)et $ouldo*er signi/cant economicre$ards ' 2oreover% higher energy production could moderate globalenergy prices and reduce the reliance of other nations on the Middle 8ast and other unsta"le andorundemocratic energy states. Concluded Mills' 8conomic research noted earlier 5nds a"out <+, "illion in "road

economic "ene5ts for e/ery "illion "arrel of oil $roduced (or oileEui/alent in hydrocar"ons). This $ould

imply that the aggregate !-- billion barrels of additional hydrocarbonsextracted and sold over the next t$o decades in the accelerate scenario$ould yield over IJ trillion of value to the North merican economy% $ithIK trillion of that accruing to the U'S'<There are no obvious technologicalor economic barriers to this future' Nor are any government subsidies

re5uired' Aather% the problem is $olitical& es$ecially access to federal land '

Last tracts of hydrocarbon&rich resources a re either entirely ore*ectively o*&limits to development %< $ith a steady decline in ne$ natural gas



and oil leases on federal land since #--M& e6$lained 2ills. =n i"erating the 8nergy

8conomy% he cited $ro"lems of regulatory com$le6ity&% cree$&% and ca$riciousness.% 7n response heo*ered a deregulatory agenda% emphasi4ing agency accounta"ility& access tofederal lands for exploration and development& and rationali:ing legal challenges tode/elo$ment. !mong his suggested $olicy changes were remo/ing "arriers to e6$orts and creating a single federal$ortal for a$$ro/al of all maDor energy $roDects&% similar to that em$loyed "y Canada.



#nc solvency

CP is )ey to become an oil&exporting nationmassively booststhe economy and solves heg

2ills !# (Mark& $hysicist& is an adDunct fellow with the Manhattan =nstitute andFor"es 8nergy =ntelligence columnist& ser/ed in 2resident Ronald ReaganJs ?hite>ouse Science #ce& +*,-*& U.S. can "ecome an energy e6$ort nation% 2olitico)htt$'www.$olitico.comnewsstories4+-*+;@+;N2age*.html

number of recent detailed forecasts predict that the U'S' could close in on4ero imports if current trends continue ' 0e could /nally reali4e thatelusive goal of energy independence'< =n the $rocess& we could add nearly <- trillion in

cumulati/e federal& state and local go/ernment ta6 re/enues and generate * to I million new Do"s. (ut

independence misses the point in a $orld craving fuel' 0e need to

become an exporter ' 1he U.S. could& in colla"oration with Canada and Me6ico similar to the orth

!merican Free 1rade !greement& forge $olicies to encourage hydrocar"on $roduction and e6$ort. That $ouldreset geopolitics' nd ust starting do$n that path $ould really light a

/re under ob and economic gro$th ' ?e know su=cient geophysical resourcesexist to support an export&nation policy' U'S' 6eological Survey datareveal that this continent has more than 10,000 billion barrels of oil-equivalent in natural

gas& oil and coal. That’s more than four times the resources of the 2iddle 9ast' 0econsume only #- billion of that a year' 7f $e maximi4ed North mericanhydrocarbon potential% our energy exports to the $orld could exceedthose from the 2iddle 9ast by #-F-' This $ould add something like IJ trillion toour economies% spur manufacturing as $ell as research and developmentinvestment from the largesse and stimulate millions more high&paying

obs' nd it $ould send tremors through the /elds of the 2iddle 9ast andAussia ' 1he key to con/erting resources to $roduci"le reser/es% for e6$ort lies in ad/ancing technology. ?e

might e/en em"race the shocking idea of su"sidi:ing this. But $e cannot be an export nation

$ithout moving beyond a ball&and&chain regulatory system including

access to the vast s$aths of resources under o*&limits federal lands'

There is no doubt the $orld $ill use vastly more hydrocarbons in thefuture' The only real variables are $ho $ill supply all that fuel and thus

$ho $ill enoy the economic and geopolitical bene/ts' 0e have thepotential to be that leader ' 7f $e don@t grab that chance% others $ill'9xpanding North merican hydrocarbon production for export may be our

most important opportunity for gro$th as $ell as for long&term peace'



# not enough on land

Su=cient resources existall $e have to do is develop themMark 2. 2ills #-!#% adDunct fellow& Manhattan =nstitute& U8!S>=G 1>8 #R1>

!M8R=C! 88RGK C##SSUS' >KR#C!RB#S C! FU8 GR#?1> !2R#S28R=1K& +9-*& $. ,+.

Considering the lightningrod role $layed "y the a/aila"ility and $rice of oil& CitiJs forecast relating to oil $roduction

is truly radical9the U'S '% Citi@s analysts note% $ill surpass Aussia to become the$orld@s second& largest oil producer by #-#-9assuming that the current enhanced%

traDectory is $ermitted to continue. (ut $hat if $e loo) beyond *4*4 to *4V4& and $hat ifthose trends didnJt Dust continue "ut $ere accelerated& not Dust for oil "ut for all hydrocar"onsT

?hat are the im$lications for the U.S.& the rest of orth !merica& and the rest of the worldT But 5rst& dosu=cient resources existG Technology unloc)s resources ' nd Northmerica has total hydrocarbon resources that are some four times greaterthan those found in the 2iddle 9ast' The geology of North merica is

profoundly hydrocarbon&rich' =n addition to the longrecogni:ed resource a"undance for coal-+9

the U.S. has nearly onefourth of glo"al coal resources9is the reality that /ast oil and natural gas resources alsoe6ist and are increasingly accessi"le. Resources are distinct from reser/es&% which are "ased not Dust on geology

"ut on factors that include a/aila"le technology& land access& and market $rices. ccessible reservesthus gro$ $ith time% $ith the advance of technology% and $ith the rise inprices and $ealth '-; uring the -@+4s& $olicymakers assumed that orth !merican natural gas resourceswere so scarce that the Carter administration and Congress $assed the -@+; Fuel Use !ct to "an the use of naturalgas for electric generation& $reser/ing it for heating and industrial a$$lications. (1he act was re$ealed under2resident Reagan nine years later.) !nd only a decade ago& regulators authori:ed the construction of liEue5ednatural gas (G) im$ort terminals to su$$lement ostensi"le limited domestic su$$lies. ow those terminals would

"e more /alua"le if re/ersed and used to e6$ort G. The U'S' oil reserve /gure $as about FKbillion barrels in !"-' et% over the ensuing three decades% over !--billion barrels of oil have been produced from merica@s oil /elds& and thereser/e 5gure still stands at a"out V4 "illion "arrels.*I 1he resource was o"/iously larger than the narrowly de5ned

reser/e num"er. Technology $ill enable yet more production from so&calledconventional oil /elds % and it unloc)s even greater s$aths of resourcesfrom& to cite Dust two e6am$les& the !# billion&plus barrels of accessible< oil in the(a))en shale (the source of orth akotaJs "oom) and a similar #- billion barrels of oil and gas in the eastern 2arcellus shale enriching Ohio and Pennsylvania'nd that@s ust the beginning' The 6reen Aiver 1ormation& for e6am$le& a shale

region largely "eneath Colorado& ?yoming& and Utah& contains an estimated #%---,F%---billion barrels of oil '*, 1he Rand Cor$oration estimates that F-,M- percent of that oil isextractable $ith technology no$ available.*A =n addition& technology alsoincreasingly ma)es feasible access to oil in ever&deeper o*shore $aters&

and to many other types of land&side unconventional formations $here some

of the richest untapped /nds are in California.*;



NOT oint Development



US lone !nc

Text: The United States federal government should lift theOuter Continental Shelf Drilling 2oratorium

+ifting the moratorium solves , encourages development$ithout association $ith Cuba

3illian . 6ena$ (3.. Candidate& =ndiana Uni/. School of aw=ndiana$olis L =ndiana=nternational Q Com$arati/e aw Re/iew) #-!- =ndiana =nternational QCom$arati/e aw Re/iew

!s an alternate o$tion to the United States lifting its #CS Moratorium& policy analysts havesuggested that the United States )eep the 2oratorium in place but lift theeconomic embargo against Cuba in order to enable the United States tobid on the o*shore blocs that Cuba plans to lease out to foreign nations.n**, ?hile a discussion of the economic em"argo goes well "eyond the sco$e of this ote& it is im$ortant to take

notice that it is an o$tion that has "een $laced on the ta"le. 8/en without a full discussion of this o$tion& the mainconcerns with it can shed some light on its /ia"ility. !s discussed in 2art = of this ote% it ma)es littlesense for the United States to lift an economic embargo% $hich has beenin place since !"M#% ust to lease Cuban o*shore drilling blocs that are so closeto the U. S. coast that they would su"Dect the United States to the same risks of en/ironmental degradation. n**AGranted& lifting the economic em"argo on Cu"a would "e "ene5cial in other areas of WX+AY trade& "ut if the $rimary

moti/e for lifting the em"argo is o7shore oil drilling related then it makes /ery little sense . n**+ There aremuch more accessible% less controversial avenues for allo$ing o*shoredrilling in the United States' (y lifting the OCS 2oratorium the UnitedStates $ould achieve the same bene/ts as it $ould if it leased drillingblocs from Cuba& but $ould also achieve greater control and oversight overthe industry. n**;0 7f the United States does not ta)e action and lift the OCS2oratorium% in combination $ith imposing the other recommended

environmental and safety regulations% it $ill remain heavily dependant onforeign nations for oil' 9ven more daunting% the United States $ill beforced to sit bac) and $atch as Cuba and other nations reap the economicbene/ts of a substantial supply of oil so close to its o$n coastline. !fter yearsof de"ate amongst e6tremists on "oth sides of the $olitical s$ectrum& the issue of o7shore drilling in the #CS has"een stagnated. =n light of Cu"as $lans to e6$and its oil $rogram and with the introduction of im$ro/ed technology&the en/ironmental arguments& once con/incing against o7shore drilling& are now weak. !fter all& lifting the #CSMoratorium does not gi/e oil com$anies free reign !merican oil com$anies will "e su"Dect to strengthenedtechnological and safety regulations& more freEuent ins$ections& and more se/ere sanctions in the e/ent of noncom$liance. Because there is little the United States can do to $re/ent Cu"a from leasing out o7shore e6$loration"locs& located within forty5/e miles of the U. S. coastline& it is wise for the United States to "e $roacti/e. =f o7shoredrilling is to "e done so close to the United States& it should "e done the United States way. !s discussed in 2art ===of this ote& en/ironmental $olicy in Cu"a has historically lacked enforcement and the $u"lic has little knowledge of and a$$reciation for the en/ironmental risks associated with o7shore drilling. n**@ 1hus& the regulations o/ero7shore drilling im$osed "y the Cu"an go/ernment would likely "e much less stringent than regulations im$osed "y

the U. S. Go/ernment.0 The merican public% merican businesses% and even someenvironmentalists have become increasingly supportive of opening up theOCS for o*shore oil drilling. n*V4 Drilling technology and methodology havemade maor advancements% and the oil industry.s reputation has becomecleaner since the !"-s $hen the OCS 2oratorium $as /rst enacted' TheUnited States. economy $ould be stimulated by participation in o*shoreoil drilling' 1he "ene5ts are growing& and the risks ha/e minimi:ed. 1hus& the o$timal solution would "e forthe United States to lift the #CS Moratorium& with the directional WX++Y drilling method mandated where $ossi"le&increase the freEuency of ins$ections& strengthen enforcement& make sanctions more se/ere& and create an Zoil



legacyZ fund in $re$aration for a transition into more sustaina"le energy de/elo$ment. n*V- 1he United States

should continue to research other renewa"le& alternati/e energy sources as well. Ta)ing these steps$ill allo$ the United States to remain competitive in the internationalmar)etplace% develop a self& su=cient energy sector% solve a politicalbattle that has been looming for years& and minimi4e any negative impactassociated $ith Cuba.s o*shore exploration bloc leasing program'



#nc solvency

US $aters is enough to solve , no need to $or) $ith CubaRichard Sado$s)i #-!! (is a Class of *4-* 3.. candidate& at >ofstra Uni/ersity0


The United States Should 1irst Utili4e8 U'S' Oil Aesources0 1he United StatesJ thirst

for oil should 5rst "e Euenched0 with local resources "efore resorting to end the em"argo. llo$ing0 U'S'companies access to Cuban o*shore oil /elds $ould0 e*ectively allo$those companies to drill for oil in $aters closer0 to the U'S' coast than la$s

currently allo$'+, 3. arry ichols&0 Chairman of e/on 8nergy& an inde$endent U.S. oil and natural0 gas$roducer& o$ined that WwYhen U.S. com$anies are not e/en0 allowed to drill in the eastern half of the Gulf of

Me6ico& we0 ha/e a long way to go "efore we can think a"out international0 waters o7 the coast of Cu"a.%+A 7faccess to oil is indeed the0 main U'S' rationale behind lifting the embargo%this need is best0 met by /rst allo$ing companies to drill more extensivelyin U'S'0 $aters.++0 Moreo/er& de$endence on other countries for oil is not a0 res$onsi"le o$tion.+; Becausethe United States has the "est oil0 safety standards in the world& it is most en/ironmentally com$etent0 to ta$!mericaJs own natural resources.+@ Furthermore&0 "ecause drilling has yet to start& there is time yet for Cu"an 0

$olitical change to occur.;4 Not only is there simply no pressing0 need for Cuban oil&

as portrayed by U'S' oil lobbyists& but U'S'8 resources o*er a moreattractive alternative.;-







Plenty of oil

+and reserves enough , enough oil to last !-- years2errill and Schi4er Q!F W 1homas ?. Merrill& Charles 8/ans >ughes 2rofessor

of aw& Colum"ia aw School and a/id M. Schi:er& ean and the ucy G. Moses2rofessor of aw& and >ar/ey R. Miller 2rofessor of aw and 8conomics& Colum"iaaw School& 1he Shale #il and Gas Re/olution& >ydraulic Fracturing& and ?aterContamination' ! Regulatory Strategy&% V-V& *4-V&htt$'www+.gs".colum"ia.edurichmansitesdefault5les5lesFracturingVN-V.doc.$df Y

There is some 5uestion about the staying po$er of these ne$ natural gasand oil reserves.V4 For instance& drilling costs for shale oil are high& so a glo"al decline in $rices could

cause com$anies to reduce $roduction.V- =n addition& some experts caution that fractured$ells may not produce as long as conventional $ells.V* 9ven so% estimatesof recoverable reserves have generally been increasing over time.VV 7t

may $ell be% as President Obama suggested in his #-!# State of the Unionddress% that fracturing $ill generate !-- years of natural gas supply for the UnitedStates at our current rate of consum$tion.VI

Ne$ study proves opening up more drilling $ould massivelyincrease oil output7'9'A' @!! Wew #il Finds !round the Glo"e' ?ill the U.S. Ca$itali:e on =ts #ilResourcesT% =nstitute for 8nergy Research& Se$tem"er -V&htt$'www.instituteforenergyresearch.org*4--4@-Vnewoil5ndsaroundtheglo"ewilltheusca$itali:eonitsoilresourcesY

1he !2= Study ?hat could the oil industry achie/e if restrictions on oil drilling in the United States were lessenedT

The merican Petroleum 7ndustry commissioned a study that assumed oildrilling $ould be allo$ed o* the currently prohibited areas of the 9ast and0est Coasts& in waters o7 FloridaJs Gulf Coast& in !laskaJs !rctic ational ?ildlife Refuge& and on mostfederal $u"lic land that is not a national $ark. =t also assumed that it would get a$$ro/al to "uild $i$elines toaccommodate a dou"ling of Canadian oil sands $roduction and the continuation of the ta6 $olicies currently in $lace

for the oil industry.W6i6Y0 The P7 commissioned the study from energy consultants0ood 2ac)en4ie% $ho found that domestic production of petroleum li5uids$ould increase from J' million barrels per day in #-!- to " million barrelsper day in #-F- under current $olicies due to increased $roduction from shale oil and dee$water drilling.

3o$ever% if the industry could meet the assumptions of the study%domestic li5uids production could reach !K'R million barrels per day closeto the !" million barrels a day that $e currently consume. 1hat would create -million new Do"s o/er the ne6t se/en years and -.I million "y *4V4. 1he industry already su$$orts more than @

million Do"s throughout the economy. 1he study indicates that the United States can come close to $roducingenough new oil and natural gas to dis$lace all nonorth !merican im$orts within -, years. 2ore thanI-- billion in cumulative ne$ government revenue could be generated by#-F- and I!#J billion by #-#- [\] eEual to a"out two and a half yearsJ worth of current federals$ending on roads. Most im$ortantly& no new ta6es or increased go/ernment s$ending is needed to accom$lish the

results of the study.W66Y0 Conclusion0 round the globe% countries are drilling for oilonshore% o*shore% and in oil shale deposits' (ut the United States ishampered by government rules and restrictions to developing its vastresources. 0ithout increasing taxes and $ithout increasing government

http://www7.gsb.columbia.edu/richman/sites/default/files/files/Fracturing3_13.doc.pdf


http://www.instituteforenergyresearch.org/2011/09/13/new-oil-finds-around-the-globe-will-the-u-s-capitalize-on-its-oil-resources/








spending% the oil industry in the United States could ma)e us independentof non&North merican oil imports ' !nd in doing so& they could create Do"s and add "illions ofdollars to go/ernment re/enues. ?hy donJt we take the challengeT



Ds



Oil



Oil +in)

Cuban oil production trades&o* $ith US& 2id&9ast oil tiesr. !. F. lhai (energy economist and George 2atton Chair of Business and

8conomics at the College of Business !dministration at #hio orthern) and 1erry .2aris (founding e6ecuti/e director of the Center for Cu"an. Business Studies and$rofessor of management) #--R 1he Future of Cu"aJs 8nergy Sector&% Cu"a

1oday&htt$'we".gc.cuny.edude$t"ildn$u"licationscu"atoday"ookcom$lete.$df^$age-4,YThe current economic% political% and social trends in Cuba indicate that0 energy consumption $ill increase substantially in the future. 1ransition to a0 market economy would accelerate this trend. =n this article the word transition% 0 refers to any mo/ement towards

a market economy. =t does not necessarily0 mean regime change.0 The proximity of Cuba to theUnited States and the possibility of massive oil deposits in Cuban $aters$ill have a tangible impact on political% economic%0 and social

environments% not only in Cuba% but in the $hole region.0 The discovery ofcommercial deposits of oil $ould a*ect Cuba@s economy on one hand andUS energy policy and energy security on the other. =f USCu"a0 relations im$ro/e in the future&

discovery of large oil deposits could a7ect the0 energy trade $atterns "etweenthe t$o countries and a*ect oil trade bet$een0 the US and other oilproducing countries% especially in the 2iddle 9ast'

US $ould sacri/ce oil contracts from the 2id&9ast in exchangefor Cuba , saves on transport costsily 1esler (Research !ssociate) #--" Cu"an #il' >a/anaJs 2otential Geo2olitical Bom"shell&% 3une --& Council on >emis$heric !7airs&htt$'www.coha.orgcu"anoilha/ana_8*_;4_@@s$otentialgeo$olitical"om"shell^sthash.P;ulo=#.d$ufYCu"an #7shore #il0 Desperate to end U'S' dependence on oil from the 2iddle

9ast% United States@ o=cials are certainly a$are of Cuba@s oil&producing

potentia l. =n its *44I assessment& the U.S. Geological Sur/ey found that Cu"a has , "illion "arrels ofcrude oil o7 its northern shores >a/ana claims it has *4 "illion . Fi/e "illion "arrels would $ut Cu"a on $ar with

Colom"ia or 8cuador& while #- billion barrels $ould ma)e Cuba@s oil capacitycomparable to that of the United States@ and place it among the top !K oilreserves nations in the $orld. 8ither way& Cu"aJs oil is attracting the attention of oil com$aniesfrom around the glo"e. !t the moment& S$ainJs Re$sol& Bra:ilJs 2etro"ras& and orwayJs Statoil>ydro are o/erseeinge6$loratory drilling in the Gulf of Me6ico. =ndia& Malaysia& Hietnam& and Hene:uela also ha/e signed deals with

Cu"a.0 3avana has publicly stated that it $elcomes merican investment%but U'S' companies are incapable of proceeding $ithout an o=cial go&

ahead from 0ashington' !s 3uan Fleites& /ice $resident of >a/anaJs state oil com$any Cu"a$etroleo&said& ?e are o$en to U.S. oil com$anies interested in e6$loration& $roduction and ser/ices.% U.S. oil tycoons ha/eshown de5nite interest& "ut `urt Glau"it:& a s$okesman for Che/ron& e6$lained& Until trade "arriers are remo/ed&Che/ron is una"le to do "usiness in Cu"a. Com$anies like us would ha/e to see a change in U.S. $olicy "efore wee/aluate whether thereJs interest.% 1he aforementioned foreign com$anies already ha/e contracted for *- of the ,@o7shore Cu"an drilling "locks& and another *V "locks are currently under negotiation "y other foreign nations&including Russia and China.0 ! U.S. Stake in Cu"an #ilT0 =t is not too late for the U.S. to de/elo$ a stake in Cu"aJsnascent oil out$ut. =t takes "etween three and 5/e years to de/elo$ oil reser/es& and as of yet& there has "een nomaDor oil disco/ery o7 the island. Re$sol struck oil in *44I& "ut not enough to sell commercially. Se/eral otherforeign 5rms are currently using seismic testing& which assesses the oil content of $otential de$osits& after whichthey will $ro"a"ly "egin e6$loring in *4-4 or *4--. 1he e6$loration manager for Cu"a$etroleo& Rafael 1enreyro



2re:& has called the incoming results from seismic testing in Cu"aJs reser/es /ery encouraging.%0 !fter liftingthe embargo& U.S. oil com$anies could most likely work out an arrangement where"y the U.S. woulde6change its reser/es with near"y holdings of foreign com$anies& allowing the U.S. access to Cu"aJs oil e/en after

all of the contracts ha/e "een signed. 1his could appreciably save transportation costs%because U'S' companies $ouldn@t have to go half$ay around the $orld insearch of oil re/neries% $ith Cuba only "- miles a$ay'8 U.S. oil eEui$ment and ser/ice

com$anies like >alli"urton& howe/er& already ha/e lost the o$$ortunity to "uild re5neries& $i$elines& and $orts&sacri5cing tens of millions of dollars in re/enue. U.S. com$aniesJ oil contracts are not Dust signi5cant for their own$otential $ro5ts& "ut also for !merican consumersJ access to reasona"ly $riced neigh"oring oil. ?ith oil $rices

reco/ering from a ecem"er low of <V*.I4 a "arrel "ack to around <+4 a "arrel% access to more oilsources could become a matter of serious import .



# Cuban oil inevitable

Cuban oil exploration $ill stay lo$ in the s5uo' 3orge Pin #-!F (energy a7airs researcher) 2rogreso ?eekly L May +th L

htt$'www.ha/anatimes.orgT$@*AVI 1hat is the $rocess we ha/e conducted for the $ast -4 years in Cu"a& which includes a study "y the U.S. Geological

Sur/ey. This study& done for the 5rst time in *44I& estimates that in Cuba@s geologicalnorth strip& o7 shore& from 2inar del Rbo 2ro/ince to northern Matan:as $ro/ince& there are oilreserves'0 The surveyors raise the possibility that from R billion to M billionbarrels of crude are still to be found' 1hese geological studies are /ery en/ironmental& "uthistorically they are highly trusted "y our industry. 1hat doesnJt mean that they guarantee the amount of oil& "ut itJsthe 5rst ste$ in that stage.0 ?e are "eyond the stage of studies now we are in the stage of e6$loration. Four wellsha/e "een e6$loited "y serious international oil com$anies L each well has cost at least <-44 million L so& in otherwords& it wasnJt a $olitical game.%0 So far& the ho$edfor results ha/e not materiali:ed at least& thatJs what =Jm told"y sources =J/e consulted. ?e still ha/e the rest of the Gulf of Me6ico& the dee$ waters in the rest of the Gulf of

Me6ico& adDacent to the United StatesJ e6clusi/e :one. = think that there are $ossi"ilities there.0 =n my o$inion& inthe next three to /ve years% unfortunately% 7 don@t see a high probabilitythat Cuba $ill maintain the level of exploration in deep $aters such as

$e@ve seen in the past t$o or three years.

7nternational oil companies are turning to other parts of theglobe'Mary O.6rady (is a mem"er of the editorial "oard at 1he ?all Street 3ourna) ?S3 L!$ril *I& #-!F htt$'online.wsD.comarticleSB-444-I*I-*+;;+V*II+I44I,+;II*,--,A-I,;V@*.htmlAemember all the hype about Cuba drilling for oil in Cari""ean waters andmerican companies missing out on the bonan4a because of the U.S.

embargoG 0ell% li)e all the other Cuban get&rich&5uic) schemes of the $ast ,4

years& this one seems to have Hopped too.0 ast week& Floridas Sun Sentinel re$orted that Zafters$ending nearly <+44 million during a decade& energy companies from around the $orldhave all but abandoned their search for oil in deep $aters o* the northcoast of Cuba near Florida.Z Se$arately& Cu"aStandard.com re$orted on Friday that Zthe shallowwater

drilling $latform used "y Aussian oil com$any #!# aru"e:hneft $ill leave Cuban $aters 3une -& to"e rede$loyed to !sia.Z0 !ccording to the Sun Sentinel story& 3orge 2ion& an oilindustry guru who had "een

cheering Cu"as e6$loration attem$ts& said ZCompanies are saying% .0e cannot spend anymore capital on this highrisk e6$loration. ?ed rather go to Bra:il wed rather go to !ngola $e.drather go to other places in the $orld $here the technological and geological

challenges are less'Z



Politics



Unpopular !nc

Plan $ill get caught up in embargo debates , extremelyunpopular , no ris) of a lin) turn

eelesh Nerur)ar(S$ecialist in 8nergy 2olicy) and Mark 2. Sullivan (S$ecialistin atin !merican !7airs) #-!! Congressional Research Ser/ice& *4--& Cu"aJs#7shore #il e/elo$ment' Background and U.S. 2olicy Considerations&%htt$'www.fas.orgsg$crsrowRI-,**.$df

On the opposite side of the policy debate% a number of $olicy grou$s and members

of Congress oppose engagement $ith Cuba% including U'S' investment in

Cuba@s o*shore energy development . legislative initiative introduced in the

---th Congress& >.R. ,A*4& $ould go further and impose visa restrictions andeconomic sanctions on foreign companies and its e6ecuti/es $ho help facilitatethe development of Cuba@s petroleum resources. The bill asserts that

o*shore drilling by or under the authori:ation of the Cuban go/ernment poses a seriouseconomic and environmental threat to the United States% "ecause of the damage that an oil s$ill

could cause. Opponents of U'S' support for Cuba@s o7shore oil development also

argue that such involvement $ould provide an economic lifeline to theCuban government and thus prolong the continuation of the communist regime. 1heymaintain that if Cu"a rea$ed su"stantial economic "ene5ts from o7shore oil de/elo$ment& it could reduce societal$ressure on Cu"a to enact marketoriented economic reforms. Some who o$$ose U.S. in/ol/ement in Cu"aJs energyde/elo$ment contend that while Cu"a might ha/e su"stantial amounts of oil o7shore& it will take years to de/elo$.

1hey maintain that the Cu"an go/ernment is using the enticement of $otential oil $ro5ts to "reak down the U.S.economic em"argo on Cu"a.

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf



# (ipartisanship lin) turns

Partisan divide 3onathan 2. 0hite (3.. *4-4& Uni/ersity of Colorado aw School) Summer& #-!- L

Colorado 3ournal of =nternational 8n/ironmental aw and 2olicy L *- C##. 3. =18H1. . Q 2#K ,,+ L le6is)Cuba.s moves to open the Florida Straits to drilling have generated a

bifurcated merican political response' Reminiscent of the >elmsBurton !cts e7ort to

$enali:e foreign third $arties& some U'S' politicians have responded to Cu"as mo/es bycalling for la$s that $ould deny U'S' visas to employees of foreign oilcompanies doing business in Cuba. n*4- egislation "y Senator Bill elson of Florida seeks to

"an com$anies drilling for oil in the Florida Straits from o$erating in the United States. n*4* Otherpoliticians have introduced legislation that $ould exempt U'S' companiesfrom the e6$ansi/e Cu"an trade embargo in order to allow them to com$ete for leases o7 Cu"a. n*4V 1heCu"an go/ernment& meanwhile& has encouraged !merican oil com$anies to "id for tracts in Cu"ancontrolled

waters in the Florida Straits. n*4I So far% neither partisan faction has prevailed in this

tug&of&$ar' Senator elson cited en/ironmental concerns as a moti/ator "ehind his antidrilling legislation&

stating' Z!t risk are the Florida `eys ... not to mention the < ; "illion Congress is in/esting to restore the8/erglades.Z n*4, !d/ocates for rescinding the U.S. trade em"argo cite the drilling contro/ersy for e/idence of theem"argos counter$roducti/e e7ects on the U.S. WX,;;Y economy. n*4A =n Florida itself& attitudes towards o7shoredrilling a$$ear to "e in u6. ?hile Floridas federal congressional delegation continues to almost unanimouslyo$$ose o7shore drilling& the Florida >ouse of Re$resentati/es /oted in !$ril *44@ to allow drilling in statecontrolledwaters immediately o7shore. n*4+ es$ite the feuding in the United States o/er how to res$ond to Cu"an $lans todrill in the Florida Straits& if momentum in the Sunshine State itself shifts in fa/or of drilling o7shore in state waters&then drilling in the entire Florida Straits will $erha$s "ecome lesscontro/ersial. 1hat said& the ee$water >ori:on oils$ill could change $u"lic attitudes in Florida o/er o7shore drilling. 8ither way& the lingering Euestion is whetherthere is any ho$e for a $roducti/e dialogue "etween the two countries o/er stewardshi$ of the Florida Straits.

Partisan divide prevents any bipartisan solutionC. !dam +anier (3.. Candidate at the Uni/ersity of orth Carolina School of aw&

holds a B.!. from the Uni/ersity of orth Carolina at Cha$el >ill) #-!F L =nee$water' Cu"a& #7shore rilling& and 2olitical Brinkmanshi$ L orth Carolina

3ournal of =nternational aw Q Commercial Regulation (V; .C.3. =ntl . Q Com. Reg.,+-)& ?inter& e6ise6is! change in the tone of U.S. $olicy toward Cu"a is long o/erdue. n-+, lthough there is signi/cant

bipartisan support for shifting U'S' policy to$ard Cuba to a more engaging

model % n-+A the sharply polari4ed environment in 0ashington seems to

force legislators to remain at loggerheads . n-++ The intransigency of the

parties has led to repeated instances of brin) man ship & n-+; which is

counter$roducti/e to the national interest. 8ngaging with Cu"a in the de/elo$ment of its energy resources is anissue that "oth $arties should "e a"le to agree on& e/en o/er the o"Dections of the minority& who continue to take a

hardline a$$roach to anything related to Cu"a. n-+@ 1his issue is sim$ly too im$ortant. !s an ?hittle& director ofthe 8n/ironmental efense Funds Cu"a 2roDect& $ut it' Z1his isnt a"out $olitics. =ts a"out $rotecting our "eaches&our shores& our 5shermen& our communities.Z n-;4



Case



Cuban 9conomy DL



9conomy !nc

Drilling pro/ts $ill be slo$ , not solve dependence or cuto*fears

8mily !. Peterson0 aniel 3. 0hittle& 3..0 and ouglas . Aader& 2h.0

ecem"er #-!# Bridging the Gulf 0 Finding Common Ground on 8n/ironmental and0 Safety 2re$aredness for #7shore #il and Gas in Cu"a%&htt$'www.edf.orgsitesdefault5les8FBridgingNtheNGulf*4-*.$df 9nergy experts also note that e6am$les from dee$ water e6$loratory drilling around the 0 worlddemonstrate that it is not aty$ical to drill numerous dry or commercially un/ia"le 0 holes in new 5elds "efore a$ro5ta"le disco/ery is found.*I 3orge 2in& the former $resident 0 of !moco #il atin !merica and now an energy

s$ecialist at the Uni/ersity of 1e6as at !ustin& 0 explained that economic discoveries often

play out over a longer time hori4on . ! lot of people 0 have been very nave in

thin)ing that an oil&rich Cuba $as going to materiali4e overnight& and 0 that

is not the case &% 2in said. ou don@t ust turn the faucet on overnight.%*,

No supply cuto* , ne$ Lene4uelan president is an ally2eter Orsi RVK Cu"a a/oids oil cuto7 for now as Cha/e: ally narrowly winsHene:uela $residential election%&htt$'www.montrealga:ette.comnewsCu"aa/oidscuto7Cha/e:allynarrowlywinsHene:uela$residentialelection;*IIIVIstory.htmlCuba ns $ere relieved Monday by the announcement that the late leader

3ugo Chave4.s hand&pic)ed successor had been elected Lene4uela.s ne$

president& a$$arently allo$ing their country to dodge a threatened cuto* of

"illions of dollars in su"sidi:ed oil ' Cu"an 2resident Raul Castro sent a congratulatory

message to Nicolas 2aduro& $ho is seen as an ideological ally $ho $ill

$ant to continue the countries special relationship as he ser/es out the remainder of

Cha/e:s si6year term. ZThe main thing from Cuba.s point of vie$ is that he.s $on &

if its rati5ed&Z said 2aul ?e"ster 3are% a lecturer in international relations at BostonUni/ersity and former British di$lomatic en/oy to "oth Hene:uela and Cu"a. Z1hey will $ro"a"ly "e thinking thatthey now ha/e $erha$s a ma6imum of 5/e years of Hene:uelan su"sidies left&Z >are said& Z"ecause if the trendcontinues mo/ing against him& as = think is likely& this will "e the last term e/en if they are a"le to continue all thesu"sidies for that $eriod. ... 1he clocks ticking for that relationshi$.Z

(ioterror ris) is lo$dispersal problems% tech barriers% ris) ofbac) spreadexperts agree

3ohn 2ueller& 2rofessor& 2olitical Science& #hio State Uni/ersity& #H8RB#?'>#? 2#=1=C=!S ! 1>8 18RR#R=SM =US1RK =F!18 !1=#! S8CUR=1K

1>R8!1S& ! ?>K ?8 B8=8H8 1>8M& #--"% $. *-**.1or the most destructive results% bio logical $eapons need to bedispersed in very lo$&altitude aerosol clouds ' (ecause aerosols do notappreciably settle% pathogens like anthra6 (which is not easy to s$read or catch and is not

contagious) $ould probably have to be sprayed near nose level ' Moreo/er& "-percent of the microorganisms are li)ely to die during the process ofaerosoli4ation% and their e*ectiveness could be reduced still further bysunlight% smog% humidity% and temperature changes. Explosive methods of

dispersion may destroy the organisms& and& e6ce$t for anthra6 s$ores& longterm storage of lethal



organisms in "om"s or warheads is dicult' e/en if refrigerated& most of the organisms ha/e a limited lifetime.

The e*ects of such $eapons can ta)e days or $ee)s to have full e*ect%during $hich time they can be countered $ith medical and civil defensemeasures. !nd their im$act is /ery dicult to $redict in com"at situations they may s$read "ack onto the

attacker. =n the Dudgment of two careful analysts& delivering microbes and toxins over a$ide area in the form most suitable for inHicting mass casualtiesas an

aerosol that can be inhaledre5uires a delivery system $hosedevelopment Wwould outstrip the technical capabilities of all "ut the most so$histicated terroristZ Even then effective dispersal could easily be disrupted by unfavorableenvironmental and meteorological conditions.Z !fter assessing& and stressing& thediculties a nonstate entity would 5nd in o"taining& handling& growing& storing& $rocessing& and dis$ersing lethal$athogens e7ecti/ely& "iological wea$ons e6$ert Milton eiten"erg com$ares his conclusions with gli"$ronouncements in the $ress a"out how "iological attacks can "e $ulled o7 "y anyone with Za little training anda few glass Dars&Z or how it would "e Za"out as dicult as $roducing "eer.Z >e sardonically concludes& Z1he lessthe commentator seems to know a"out "iological warfare the easier he seems to think the task is.Z Z

No ris) of bioterror and there@s no impact'!lan Aeynolds on March --& *4!- (Senior Fellow at C!1# =nstitute and formerirector of 8conomic Research at the >udson =nstitute& !nthra6 and the ?M Fear

o""y&% htt$'original.antiwar.comalanreynolds*4-44V-4anthra6andthewmdfearlo""y)uclear warfare is still counted as ?M& yet the ?M Commission is more afraid of anthra6 or Boto6. ?ea$onsof Mass estruction used to include chemical warfare& "ut no longer. Fretting a"out ner/e gas turned out to "ea less lucrati/e fearmongering industry than lo""ying for Duicy "iological research grants& and for mountainousstock$iles of /accines and anti/iral drugs. Z8s$ecially trou"ling&Z says the Commission& Zis the lack of $rioritygi/en to the de/elo$ment of new /accines& drugs& and $roduction $rocesses reEuired to meet the modernthreats from manmade and naturally occurring e$idemics.Z 2riority means an e6tra <-+ "illion of de5cits$ending o/er 5/e years. But notice how Znaturally occurring e$idemicsZ were snuck into a re$ort ostensi"ly

dealing with terrorist wea$ons. lleged sources of a bioterrorist threats Wincludethe bacteria that cause anthrax and plague% the viruses that causesmallpox and 9bola hemorrhagic fever% and poisons of natural originsuch as ricin and botulinum toxin'W The Commission )no$s thoseagents are far less credible terrorist $eapons than bombs% guns%

airplanes and arson. (!nyone who tries to kill you with 8"ola would die trying). So they are stuckwith anthra6& claiming Za "ioterrorist attack in/ol/ing anthra6 "acterial s$ores WisY the most l ikely nearterm"iological threat to the United States.Z Billions were wasted "ecause of anthra6 in *44-& and the Commission isdetermined to waste "illions more. For those recei/ing federal loot& Bruce =/ins was a gift that kee$s ongi/ing. 1he Commission re$ort said& Z1he *44- anthra6 mailings were not the 5rst incident of "ioterrorism in theUnited States. =n -@;I& the RaDneeshees& a religious cult in #regon& sought to reduce /oter turnout and wincontrol of the county go/ernment in an u$coming election "y tem$orarily inca$acitating local residents with a"acterial infection. =n . . . Se$tem"er -@;I& cult mem"ers contaminated -4 restaurant salad "ars in a town in#regon with salmonella& a common "acterium that causes food $oisoning. 1he attack sickened +,- $eo$le&some seriously.Z Sickened seriously =f that isnJt ?M& what isT Z! decade later&Z the re$ort goes on& Zmem"ersof a 3a$anese doomsday cult called !um Shinrikyo released anthra6 "acterial s$ores from the roof of a "uildingin 1okyo. Fortunately& this attack failed. . . >ad !um succeeded in acEuiring a /irulent strain and deli/ered it

e7ecti/ely& the casualties could ha/e "een in the thousands.Z 1hat is illiterate nonsense. There is noe*ective $ay of dispersing anthrax from the roof of a building' +ac)ingevidence% the 02D lobby dreams up scenarios. 1he re$ort tells us ?hite >ouse

insecurity e6$erts Zcreated a chilling scenario of how terrorists could launch an anthra6 attack in the UnitedStates WwithY a single aerosol attack in one city deli/ered "y a truck using a concealed im$ro/ised s$raying

de/ice.Z This "chilling scenario" is science fiction. =n Z?M oomsday istractions&Z an !$ril *44,column a/aila"le at Cato.org& = e6$lained that& ZScenario s$inners s$eculate a"out mi6ing anthra6 with waterand somehow s$raying it (without detection) from trucks& cro$ dusters or unmanned aircraft. But to die fromanthra6& you need to inhale thousands of s$ores. 1hose s$ores clum$ together and mi6 with dust& yet they must

end u$ neither too large nor too small& or else they would "e snee:ed out& coughed u$ or swallowed. 9ven ifenough particles of the perfect si4e could be sprayed into the bree4es%the odds are extremely lo$ of infecting more than fe$ do4en peoplethat $ay. !nd none would die if they took Ci$ro $rom$tly.Z Tallying up all of the $orld@s



bioterrorism attac)s to date% the /nal score is /ve )illed from anthra6& $lus one

Bulgarian assassinated "y "eing inDected with ricin. That brings the $orld total ofbioterrorist fatalities up to half a do4en a bi4arre concept of Wmassdestruction%W and a feeble excuse for dispensing billions more federaldollars to those using scare tactics to raid the empty Treasury.



No Cuban Oil

No commercially viable oil in Cuba , companies are bac)ing out6ibson RV!R (?illiam L ?ashington Bureau& Com$anies a"andon search for oil

in Cu"as dee$ waters%& *4-V& htt$'articles.sunsentinel.com*4-V4I-Inewscu"anoildrillingretreat*4-V4I-IN-NDorge$inorthcoastcu"anocials)fter spending nearly IJ-- million during a decade% energy companies

from around the $orld have all but abandoned their search for oil in

deep $aters o* the north coast of Cuba near Florida& a "low to the Castro regime "ut a relief

to en/ironmentalists worried a"out a maDor oil s$ill. Decisions by S$ain"ased Aepsol and other

companies to drill else$here greatly reduce the chances that a giant slic)

along the Cuban coast $ould ride ocean currents to South 1lorida& threateningits "eaches& inlets& mangro/es& reefs and multi"illiondollar tourism industry. 1he Coast Guard remains $re$ared tocontain& skim& "urn or dis$erse a $otential slick. !nd Cu"an ocials still yearn for a lucrati/e strike that would $ro$u$ its economy. ! Russian com$any& aru"e:hneft& is drilling an e6$loratory well in shallower waters hugging the

Cu"an shoreline south of the Bahamas. (ut though some oil has been found o*shore%

exploratory drilling in deep $aters near currents that rush toward Florida has failed toreveal big deposits that $ould be commercially viable to extract&

discouraging companies from pouring more money into the search' ZThosecompanies are saying% .0e cannot spend any more capital on this high&ris) exploration. ?ed rather go to Bra:il wed rather go to !ngola wed rather go to other $laces in the world

where the technological and geological challenges are less&Z said orge Pion% an oil&industryanalyst at the Uni/ersity of 1e6as who consults with U.S. and Cu"an ocials as well as energy com$anies. Z7don.t foresee any time in the future exploration in Cuba.s deep&$ater

north coast' 7t is% for all practical purposes% over'W

No commercially viable oil , recent e*orts prove

O*shore 2ag !# (#7shore Maga:ine& !nother Cu"an oil well turns u$ dry%&--*,& htt$'www.o7shoremag.comarticles*4-*--anothercu"anoil.html)The Lene4uelan government&o$ned company 2HS! reported that it found

no commercially viable oil in Cuban $aters in the Gulf of Me6ico& ma)ing their

exploration $ell the third unsuccessful search for oil in recent months&

re$orted the >a/ana 1imes. 2etroleos de Hene:uela (2HS!) and CU281 closed their e6$loratory well last week inCa"o de San !ntonio& o7 the far western end of the island& ha/ing found no $otential for commercial e6$loitation&%the Cu"an staterun enter$rise Cu"a$etroleo (CU281) e6$lained. e/ertheless& 2HS! will continue to o$erate inCu"a& according to a statement "y the com$any. 1he technical e6$ertise and /alua"le geological informationo"tained ha/e contri"uted to rearming 2HS!Js decision to continue its $artici$ation in the e6$loration cam$aign

in Cu"an waters&% read the statement. This /nding is another setbac) for the Cuban

government. The present e*ort $as the third failed attempt to /nd oil in

the Cuban $aters of the 6ulf of 2exico. =n late May& the Spanish energycompany Aepsol announced it $as shutting do$n its oil exploration e*ort

o* the coast of Cuba after failing to /nd oil on its /rst bore.



9rr negative , US surveys sho$ that Cuba has a highprobability of lo$ oilPortela !# (!rmando& 1hird dry well dashes Cu"aJs ho$es for oil inde$endence%&;**& htt$'www.cu"anews.comsectionsthirddrywelldashescu"asho$esforoilinde$endence)

Not all specialists& howe/er& are that enthused' The U'S' 6eological Surveyassesses Cuba@s potential petroleum reserves at ust under R'M billion

barrels% $ith a range of one billion barrels at "KX probability & and nine

billion barrels at KX probability' =n $ri/ate& since they refuse to discuss their

opinions publicly% Cuban geologists admit there@s a lac) of information .

1hey also say analogies bet$een Cuba@s o*shore 4ones and other promising oil

/elds in the 6ulf of 2exico are misleading ' !t least some are do$nright

s)eptical $hen confronted $ith Cupet@s estimates of giant< o*shore oil

and gas /elds'



No Supply Cuto*

Ne$ election proves , cuto* is unli)elyP RV!K (!ssociated 2ress& Cu"a a/oids oil cuto7 for now as Cha/e: ally narrowly

wins Hene:uela $residential election%& *4-V&htt$'www.fo6news.comworld*4-V4I-,cu"aa/oidsoilcuto7fornowascha/e:allynarrowlywins/ene:uela)Cubans are relieved that the late Lene4uelan leader 3ugo Chave4.s hand&

pic)ed successor has been elected president' The island nation has

bene/tted from billions of dollars in subsidi4ed oil under Chave4. Ne$

President icolas 2aduro is seen as an ideological ally $ho $ill $ant to

continue the countries. special relationship. But Maduros ra:orthin /ictory margin has his

ri/al demanding a recount& and e6$erts warn that Cu"as relief could "e shortli/ed. Cu"an 2resident Raul Castro$as among the /rst to congratulate 2aduro in a note that was $u"lished Monday inCommunist 2arty news$a$er Granma.



(ioterror Defense , threat lo$

Threat exaggeratedempirical record provesGregory . ;oblent4& !ssistant 2rofessor& e$artment of 2u"lic and =nternational

!7airs and e$uty irector& Biodefense 2rogram& George Mason Uni/ersity&ZBiosecurity Reconsidered&Z =18R!1=#! S8CUR=1K& S$ring #-!-& $. @A& !S2.The threat of bioterrorism& may not be as severe as some have portrayed it to be. 1e$ terroristgroups have attempted to develop a biological $eapons capability, and even fe$er havesucceeded. Prior to the anthrax letter attacks in 2001, only one group, the disciples of guru Bhagan !hree "a#neesh in $regon, managed to cause any casualties ith a

biological agent. %& The '.!. intelligence community estimates that of the fifteen terrorist groups that have expressed an interest in ac(uiring biological eapons, only threehave demonstrated a commitment to ac(uiring the capability to cause mass casualties ith these eapons. %) *roups such as +apans -um

!hinrikyo and al/aida have demonstrated the desire to cause mass casualties and an interest in using disease as a eapon. Despite concerted e*orts by

both groups to produce deadly pathogens and toxins, hoever, neither has caused any casualties $ith such$eapons% let alone developed a $eapon capable of causing masscasualties ' The failures experienced by these groups illustrate thesigni/cant hurdles that terrorists face in progressing beyond crude

$eapons suitable for assassination and the contamination of food supplies to biological $eaponsbased on aerosol dissemination technology that are capable of causingmass casualties ' ;;

here@s more ev , the (ioterror ris) exaggerated , it@s ust aconspiracy(irch @-M (ouglas Sun foreign corres$ondent Baltimore Sun L 3une -;th Lle6is)Despite the concern of many scientists& some bio$eapons experts saythe fears are overblo$n. =n a "ook last year& !ssessing the Biological ?ea$ons and

Bioterrorism 1hreat& Milton +eitenberg% a "iowarfare e6$ert at the Uni/ersity of Maryland& College

2ark& $rote that the threat of bioterror Whas been systematically and

deliberately exaggeratedW by an Wedi/ceW of government&fundedinstitutes and experts $ho run programs and conferences' 6erm$eapons need to be carefully cultured% transported% stored ande*ectively disseminated& said Raymond ilinskas& a $olicy e6$ert and "iologist at the Center

for on$roliferation Studies. 6roups li)e al&Yaida and 3a$ans !um Shinrikyo attempted%and abandoned% e*orts to ma)e germ $eapons because the tas) $astoo di=cult'

(ioterrorism unli)ely: B!E di=cult to $eaponi4eZ B#Eunpredictable

3acEueline Simon& former mem"er& S=2R= Chemcial and Biological ?arfare 2roDect&

=m$lications of the 1error !ttacks for the B?C&% =8S!2 =F#RM!1=# BU81= n.-@& March #--#& $$. I+.The threat posed by chemical and biological $eapons has often beenmisrepresented. ?hile manufacturing chemical agents or obtaining biologicalagents is not $articularly dicult& it is not easy& and using these agents tocause mass casualty is extremely di=cult. =n order to cause mass casualty it isnecessary to take into account the lethality of an agent& its concentration& en/ironmental factors& and

resistance of the $o$ulation. 9ven more di=cult is to combine all of thesefactors $ith an e*ective method of dispersal. !ll of the elements of this eEuation



must "e mastered in order to achie/e signi5cant results. 1hat would reEuire e6tensi/e resources andscienti5c knowledge inaccessi"le to most terrorists. !n oftcited e6am$le of the failure of a terrorist grou$

to achie/e success with its "iological warfare $roDects is the 3a$anese cult um Shinri)yo& which&des$ite /ast funds and e6$erienced scientists& was una"le to wage a successful "iological attack. 1his

e6am$le also illustrates the unpredictability of biological $eapons $hichhas made them unattractive to many militaries and terrorist organi4ations

ris) of bioterror lo$based on vulnerability assessments% notactual threatstheir claims have little grounding in realiy

3acEueline Simon& former mem"er& S=2R= Chemcial and Biological ?arfare 2roDect&=m$lications of the 1error !ttacks for the B?C&% =8S!2 =F#RM!1=# BU81= n.-@& March #--#& $$. I+.The events of September 11 and the anthrax incidents that followed have led to a sea change in public perception and policyresponse with regard to biological weapons The terrorist attac!s against "ew #or! and $ashington and the anthrax letters havebecome irrevocably lin!ed in the public psyche This lin!age has led to the expansion of %merica&s defensive goals and the marriageof two previously distinct security threats, terrorism and attac! by nuclear, chemical or particularly biological weapon The progeny of this marriage, &bio-terrorism&, has vaulted to the top of the list of threats to international security, within the 'nited States most

obviously, but in many other states as well This focus on bio&terrorism as the scourge of thene$ millennium $ill have a serious impact on proliferation policies

$orld$ide' %s the (old $ar with its foundation of nuclear deterrence faded into the bac!ground of public consciousness,

chemical and biological weapons had begun to move to the forefront and gained increasing prominence in policy circles and themedia as the )greatest threat to international security) "uclear weapons were not forgotten, but lumped in with chemical andbiological weapons under the misnomer and catch phrase &weapons of mass destruction& $hile the li!elihood of the use of chemicaland biological weapons was viewed as increasing, their use on $estern soil was still regarded by most analysts as a distant threat*any of the assumptions behind this view have been shattered and reconstructed since the events of the autumn of +001 orpersons living in "orth %merica and many others worldwide. it undeniably &feels& li!e the threat of attac! by terrorists or weapons of

mass casualty has increased /owever, this is a feeling based in a ne$found sense ofvulnerability rather than an actual increase in the threat itself' nalysts%intelligence agencies% and policyma)ers have been a$are of the threatposed by these $eapons for many years and this threat has not increasedexponentially since September !!' ttac) by biological $eapons causingmass casualty is largely regarded as a lo$&probability& high conseEuence event. =n

other words& if such an e/ent did occur the results would "e de/astating& "ut the li)elihood of

occurrence is very small' *ost analysis conducted on potential biological weapons attac! has focussed on

attac! by a state actor whose motivations, if not capabilities, are generally !nown n the case of a terrorist attac! however, it is very

difficult to gain any information about the motivations, capabilities and intent of the enemy. This has resulted in asituation $here vulnerability assessments are $idely substituted forthreat assessments and policy is based on $orst&case scenario proections$ith little grounding in reality'



(ioterror Defense , no spreadVextinction

(io$eapons $on@t spread and cause epidemics , even if theydo% not many $ould die

Gregg 9asterbroo) & senior fellow at 1he ew Re$u"lic& 3uly *4-F& ?ired& ?eJre!ll Gonna ie% htt$'www.wired.comwiredarchi/e--.4+doomsday.htmlT$g*Qto$icQto$icNsetV. Germ warfareike chemical agents& biological $eapons have never lived up to theirbilling in popular culture' Consider the -@@, medical thriller #ut"reak& in which a highly contagious

/irus takes out entire towns. 1he reality is Euite di7erent. 0eaponi4ed smallpox escapedfrom a Soviet laboratory in !ralsk& `a:akhstan& in -@+- three $eo$le died% noepidemic follo$ed' 7n -@J"% $eapons&grade anthrax got out of a So/iet facility in

S/erdlo/sk (now called 8katerin"urg) M died% no epidemic' The loss of life $as tragic&

"ut no greater than could ha/e "een caused "y a single conventional bomb' 7n -@"%$or)ers at a US government facility near ?ashington $ere accidentally exposed to9bola /irus. They $al)ed around the community and hung out $ith family and

friends for se/eral days "efore the mistake was disco/ered. No one died' 1he fact is&evolution has spent millions of years conditioning mammals to resistgerms' Consider the (lac) Plague' 7t $as the $orst )no$n pathogen inhistory& loose in a Middle !ges society of $oor $u"lic health& awful sanitation& and no anti"iotics. et itdidn@t )ill o* humanity' 2ost people who were caught in the e$idemic survived' nysuperbug introduced into today@s 0estern $orld $ould encounter top&notch public health% excellent sanitation% and an array of medicinesspeci/cally engineered to )ill bioagents' 2erha$s one day some as$iring r. 8/il willin/ent a "ug that "y$asses the immune system. Because it is $ossi"le some no/el su$erdisease could "ein/ented& or that e6isting $athogens like small$o6 could "e genetically altered to make them more /irulent (twothirds of those who contract natural small$o6 sur/i/e)& "iological agents are a legitimate concern. 1hey mayturn increasingly trou"lesome as time $asses and knowledge of "iotechnology "ecomes harder to control&

allowing indi/iduals or small grou$s to cook u$ nasty germs as readily as they can "uy guns today. But no

superplague has ever come close to $iping out humanity "efore& and itseems unli)ely to happen in the future.

9ven if successful at dispersal , No extinction'Malcolm 6lad$ell on o/em"er *I& -@"" (Sta7 writer for the new Korker&8$idemics' #$$osing Hiew$oints&% $. V-V*)9very infectious agent that has ever plagued humanity has had to adapta speci/c strategy but every strategy carries a corresponding cost andthis ma)es human counterattac) possible. Malaria is /icious and deadly "ut it relies onmosEuitoes to s$read from one human to the ne6t& which means that draining swam$s and $utting u$ mosEuitonetting can all hut halt endemic malaria. Small$o6 is e6traordinarily dura"le remaining infectious in theen/ironment for years& "ut its /ery dura"ility its essential rigidity is what makes it one of the easiest micro"es tocreate a /accine against. !=S is almost in/aria"ly lethal "ecause it attacks the "ody at its $oint of great

/ulnera"ility& that is& the immune system& "ut the fact that it targets "lood cells is what makes it so relati/elyuninfectious. Hiruses are not su$erhuman. = could go on& "ut the $oint is o"/ious. ny microbecapable of $iping us all out $ould have to be everything at once' ascontagious as ue& as dura"le as the cold& as lethal as 8"ola& as stealthy as >=H and so doggedly resistant to

mutation that it would stay deadly o/er the course of a long e$idemic. But viruses are not % $ell%superhuman' They cannot do everything at once ' 7t is one of the ironiesof the analysis of alarmists such as Preston that they are all too $illingto point out the limitations of human beings% but they neglect to pointout the limitations of microscopic life forms.



(ioterror Defense , terrorist not use

Terrorists not interested in bio$eaponsl Yaeda last pursuedin #--!

`eith ohnson& Gains in Bioscience Cause 1error Fears&% ?! S1R881 3#UR!&;9--9!-% htt$'online.wsD.comarticleSB-444-I*I4,*+I;+4V+**;4I,+,VA@V@I4A;IVA-V*.html& accessed ,I--.Both houses of Congress ha/e legislation in the works to strengthen the countrys a"ility to detect& $re/entand& if necessary& reco/er from largescale attacks using "iowea$ons. !ll the go/ernment attention comes

des$ite the a"sence of known terrorist $lots in/ol/ing "iological $eapons' ccording to U'S'counterterrorism o=cials% al Yaeda last actively tried to $or) $ithbio$eaponsspeci/cally anthraxbefore the #--! invasion of thatuprooted its leadership from fghanistan' 0hile terrorists have onoccasion used chemical $eaponssuch as chlorine and sarin gasnone have yet employed a biological agent% counterterrorismo=cials and bio$eapons researchers say. 1he U.S. anthra6 attacks were ultimately"lamed on a U.S. scientist with access to military "iowea$ons $rograms.

1ormidible tech barriers and easy alts chec) bioterror 3ohn Paranchi& !nalyst& R! Cor$oration& !nthra6 !ttacks& Biological 1errorism&and 2re/enti/e Res$onses&% R! 18S1=M#K& o/em"er #--!. !/aila"le from the?orld ?ide ?e" at' www.rand.org$u"licationsC1C1-;AC1-;A.$df &Su"national grou$s or indi/iduals can de/elo$ or acEuire their own "iological wea$ons ca$a"ilities for

clandestine use& "ut it is not easy. Terrorist groups and individuals historicallyhave not employed biological $eapons because of a combination offormidable barriers to ac5uisition and use and comparatively readilyavailable alternatives and disincentives. Procurement of materialsand recruitment of people $ith s)ills and )no$&ho$ are formida"le

barriers' 9ven if some of the materials and production e5uipmentare procurable for legitimate scienti/c or industrial purposes%handling virulent biological materials and fashioning them into$eapons capable of producing mass casualties is beyond the reachof most sub&national groups or indi/iduals. 7n the last t$enty years% thereare only t$o signi/cant cases of sub&national groups using orattempting to use biological $eapons and a fe$ cases $here groupsor individuals made e*orts to ac5uire biological materials. =n -@;I& theRaDneeshees& a religious cult grou$ located in #regon& sought to win a local election "y running its owncandidates and intentionally $oisoning local towns$eo$le who they e6$ected would /ote against them.IUsing their medical clinics& cult mem"ers ordered a /ariety of "acterial cultures from the !merican 1y$eCulture Collection located in Maryland. 1hey contaminated ten salad "ars with a strain of salmonella&sickening at least +,- $eo$le. 1hey used commercially a/aila"le "iological agents to inca$acitate $eo$le

clandestinely& "ecause it was im$ortant for them to a/oid attracting attention. 1he intentional character ofthe out"reak was not recogni:ed for o/er a year& when mem"ers of the cult re/ealed details a"out theattacks to authorities in e6change for lighter sentences stemming from other charges.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703722804575369394068436132.html


http://www.rand.org/publications/CT/CT186/CT186.pdf



http://www.rand.org/publications/CT/CT186/CT186.pdf



(ioterror Defense , no dispersal

2ultiple technical barriers to bioterror 3onathan Tuc)er #---& /isiting fellow& >oo/er =nstitution& Stanford Uni/ersity&

CURR81 >=S1#RK& !$ril *`& $.-,-.!lthough some terrorist grou$s may "e moti/ated "y the desire to inict mass casualties and a su"set may

"e ca$a"le of a/oiding $remature arrest& the technical challenges associated $iththe production and e=cient dissemination of chemical or biologicalagents ma)e catastrophic attac)s unli)ely c5uiring such acapability $ould re5uire terrorists to overcome a series of maorhurdles: hiring technically trained personnel $ith the relevantexpertise% gaining access to speciali4ed chemical $eaponingredients or virulent microbial strains% obtaining e5uipmentsuitable for the mass&production of chemical or biological agents%and developing $ide area delivery systems. 1o6ic wea$ons also entail ha:ards ando$erational uncertainties much greater than those associated with 5rearms and e6$losi/es.

Prefer our evidence &&&& theirs is clear exaggeration!ndrew O@Neil& lecturer in 2olitics and =nternational Relations at FlindersUni/ersity& !$ril #--F& !ustralian 3ournal of =nternational !7airs& Hol. ,+& o. -&e"scohost& $. -4@Gi/en the high stakes in/ol/ed& it is all too easy to exaggerate possible scenariosinvolving terrorists using 02D' Ket it is e5ually easy to dismisspossible threat scenarios as being unduly alarmist. !s the head of the UnitedationJs 1errorism 2re/ention Branch has remarked& the greatest challenge in e/aluating the ?M terroristthreat is walking the 5ne line "etween fear and $aranoia on the one hand& and $rudence and dis"elief onthe otherJ (Schmid *444' -4;). #ne of the most $re/alent features in mainstream discussions of ?Mterrorism has "een the conation of moti/e and ca$a"ility. !ll too often o"ser/ers assume that sim$ly"ecause terrorist grou$s are moti/ated to acEuire ?M they will "e successful in doing so. ! relatedassum$tion is that once terrorists gain access to ?M materials they will& i$so facto& "e a"le to "uild a

wea$on and deli/er it against assigned targets. 1he $re/alence of this a$$roach has meant thatinsucient attention has "een $aid to addressing the key issue of accessi"ility to nuclear& chemical& and"iological wea$ons on the $art of terrorist grou$s and the likelihood of such grou$s actually using ?M.ConseEuently& the challenging nature of assessing the threat of ?M terrorism has freEuently "eeno/erlooked in much of the academic literature. Sim$ly acce$ting at face /alue the hy$othesis that ?Mterrorism is only a matter of timeJ is no su"stitute for detailed and measured threat assessment. !s = ha/eargued& the issue is com$le6 and not one that lends itself to hard and fast conclusions. #n the one hand& =

demonstrated that it remains very di=cult for all but the mosttechnologically advanced terrorist organisations to successfully$eaponise nuclear material and C0 and (0 agents for deliveryagainst targets' This is particularly the case $ith respect to nuclear$eapons% but also holds true for chemical and biological $eapons' 7nthe case of biological $eapons9which ha/e "ecome the most feared category of ?M interms of likely terrorist use9although the reEuisite material for de/ising B? agents is widely a/aila"le&

the s)ill and expertise for e*ectively $eaponising a (0 agent is stillseemingly beyond terrorist groups' Overall % ac5uiring 02Dcapabilities for delivery against targets is a lot harder for terroriststhan is generally ac)no$ledged in the literature.

No bioterror , dispersal impossibleScherer -F (3ohn .& Minn."ased freelance writer& edited the year"ook 1errorism'!n !nnual Sur/ey in -@;*;V and the Euarterly 1errorism from -@;A to *44-& =s



terrorisms threat o/er"lownT&% ational !7airs& 3an&htt$'5ndarticles.com$articlesmiNm-*+*isN*A@*N-V-aiN@A*A;*;A)Chemical& "iological& and nuclear (CB) attacks are $ossi"le& "ut di=cult and unli)ely. #nly onehas succeeded o/er the last two decadesthe -@@, Sarin incident on the 1okyo su"way. 1housands wereinDured& "ut Dust si6 $eo$le died. 1here ha/e "een no CB attacks with mass fatalities anywhere. 1erroristZe6$ertsZ sim$ly ha/e thought u$ e/erything terri"le that can ha$$en& and then assumed it will.

Terrorists $ould encounter problems dispersing biological toxins.

2ost 5uic)ly dilute in any open space% and others need perfect$eather conditions to cause mass casualties. Some biological agents&

although not anthra6& are )illed by exposure to ultraviolet light. 1he ?ashington&.C.& su"way system has de/ices that can detect "iological to6ins. ew Kork has the highestdensity$o$ulation of any !merican city& and for this reason might ha/e the greatest $ro"a"ility of such an attack&"ut it also has the "est$re$ared $u"lic health system. =n one instance& 8ssid Sami Ben `hemais& aMoroccan who ran !l aedas 8uro$ean logistics center in Milan& =taly& recei/ed a 5/eyear $rison sentencein Fe"ruary& *44*. >is cell $lanned to $oison Romes water su$$ly near the U.S. em"assy on the HiaHeneto. 1his grou$ had -4 $ounds of $otassium ferrocyanide& a chemical used to make wine and ink dye&"ut e6tracting a deadly amount of cyanide from this com$ound would ha/e $ro/ed e6tremely dicult.



# Naval po$er

Our Heet can ta)e anyone@sno challengers0or) !# Ro"ert #& United States Under Secretary of the a/y and H2 of Strategic

Studies j Center for Strategic and Budgetary !ssessments& Z1he Coming a/alCentury&Z May& 2roceedings Maga:ine Hol. -V;,-V--& US a/al =nstitute&www.usni.orgmaga:ines$roceedings*4-*4,comingna/alcentury1or those in the military concerned about the impact of such cuts& = would sim$lysay four things'0 O !ny grand strategy starts with an assum$tion that all resources are scarce& reEuiring a "alancingof commitments and resources. !s $olitical commentator ?alter i$$mann wrote' 1he nation must maintain itso"Decti/es and its $ower in eEuili"rium& its $ur$oses within its means& and its means eEual to its $ur$oses.%0 O

The upcoming defense dra$do$n $ill be less severe than past post,0orld0ar 77 dra$do$ns ' ccommodating cuts $ill be hard& "ut manageable.0 O !t the

end of the drawdown& the United States $ill still have the best and most capablearmed forces in the $orld. 1he 2resident well a$$reciates the im$ortance of a worldclass military.1he United States remains the only nation a"le to $roDect and sustain largescale military o$erations o/er e6tendeddistances&% he said. ?e maintain su$erior ca$a"ilities to deter and defeat ada$ti/e enemies and to ensure thecredi"ility of security $artnershi$s that are fundamental to regional and glo"al security. =n this way our military

continues to under$in our national security and glo"al leadershi$& and when we use it a$$ro$riately& our securityand leadershi$ is reinforced.%0 O Most im$ortant& as the nation prioriti4es $hat is mostessential and brings into better balance its commitments and its elementsof national po$er% $e $ill see the beginning of a Naval Centurya ne$golden age of merican sea po$er .0 1he a/y =s More 1han Shi$s0 Those $ho udgeU'S' naval po$er solely by the number of vessels in the Navy@s battle forceare not seeing the bigger picture' Our battle force is ust one component9

al"eit an essential one9of a po$erful National 1leet that includes the broad rangeof capabilities% capacities% and enablers resident in the Navy% 2arineCorps% and Coast 6uard. =t encom$asses our s$ecialmission& $re$ositioning& and surgesealift eetsthe ready reser/e force na/al a/iation& including the maritime$atrol and reconnaissance force a/y and Marines$ecial o$erations and cy"er forces and the U.S. Merchant Marine. Moreo/er& it is crewed and o$erated "y the5nest sailors& Marines& Coast Guardsmen& ci/ilian mariners& and go/ernment ci/ilians in our history& and su$$orted

"y a talented and inno/ati/e national industrial "ase.0 =f this were not enough& the heart of theNational 1leet is a Navy,2arine Corps team that is transforming itselffrom an organi4ation focused on platforms to a total&force battle net$or)that interconnects sensors% manned and unmanned platforms $ithmodular payloads% combat systems% and net$or)&enabled $eapons% as$ell as tech&savvy% combat&tested people into a cohesive /ghting force'This 1leet and its net$or) $ould ma)e short $or) of any $ast U.S. Fleet9and of any

potential contemporary naval adversary

No impact to naval po$erTillman " (Barrett 1illman& >istorian s$eciali:ing in na/al and a/iation to$ics&*44@. U.S. a/al =nstitute 2roceedings Maga:ine& Fear and oathing in the 2ost

a/al 8ra&% htt$'www.usni.orgmaga:ines$roceedingsstory.as$TS1#RKN=-;@A)7n attempting to ustify a Cold 0ar force structure& many military pundits clingto the military stature of China as $roof of a $ossi"le large con/entionalwar scenario against a $seudo$eer

ri/al. Since only China possesses anything remotely approaching theprospect of challenging merican hegemony9and only in !sian waters9(eiing ergo

becomes the WthreatW that usti/es maintaining the Cold 0ar forcestructure' China.s de/elo$ment of the F*- longrange antiship ballistic missile& $resuma"ly

intended for !merican carriers& has dra$n much attention. Ket e/en granting the $erfection of such a



wea$on& the most obvious 5uestion goes begging: $hy $ould China use itG0hy $ould (eiing start a $ar $ith its number&t$o trading partner9a war

that $ould ruin both economiesT-4 Furthermore& the U'S' Navy o$ns nearly asmany maor combatants as Aussia and China combined ' 7n tonnage% $ehold a #'M to ! advantage over them' No other coalition9actual or imagined9evencomes close. But we need to ask oursel/es' does that matterT 7n today.s $orld the most

urgent naval threat consists not of ships% subs% or aircraft% but of mines&and pirates'--



# 3egemony

Data disproves hegemony impacts1ett$eis% !! Christo$her 3. Fettweis& e$artment of 2olitical Science& 1ulane

Uni/ersity& @*A--& Free Riding or RestraintT 86amining 8uro$ean Grand Strategy&Com$arati/e Strategy& V4'V-ALVV*& 8BSC#=t is $erha$s worth noting that there is no evidence to support a direct relationshipbet$een the relati/e le/el of U'S' activism and international stability. =n fact& thelimited data $e do have suggest the opposite may be true. uring the -@@4s& the

United States cut "ack on its defense s$ending fairly su"stantially' (y !""% the United States$as spending I!-- billion less on defense in real terms than it had in!""-.,- 1o internationalists& defense hawks and "elie/ers in hegemonic sta"ility& this irres$onsi"le $eacedi/idend% endangered "oth national and glo"al security. o serious analyst of !merican military ca$a"ilities&%argued `ristol and `agan& dou"ts that the defense "udget has "een cut much too far to meet !mericaJs

res$onsi"ilities to itself and to world $eace.%,* #n the other hand& if the $aci5c trends $ere not basedupon U'S' hegemony but a strengthening norm against interstate $ar% one$ould not have expected an increase in global instability and violence'0 1he

/erdict from the $ast two decades is fairly $lain' The $orld gre$ more peaceful $hile theUnited States cut its forces' No state seemed to believe that its security $asendangered by a less&capable United States military& or at least none too) anyaction that $ould suggest such a belief . No militaries $ere enhanced toaddress po$er vacuums% no security dilemmas drove insecurity or armsraces % and no regional balancing occurred once the stabili4ing presence ofthe U'S' military $as diminished. 1he rest of the world acted as if the threat of international warwas not a $ressing concern& des$ite the reduction in U.S. ca$a"ilities. Most of all& the United States and its allieswere no less safe. 1he incidence and magnitude of glo"al conict declined while the United States cut its militarys$ending under 2resident Clinton& and ke$t declining as the Bush !dministration ram$ed the s$ending "ack u$. ocom$le6 statistical analysis should "e necessary to reach the conclusion that the two are unrelated.0 Militarys$ending 5gures "y themsel/es are insucient to dis$ro/e a connection "etween o/erall U.S. actions andinternational sta"ility. #nce again& one could $resuma"ly argue that s$ending is not the only or e/en the "estindication of hegemony& and that it is instead U.S. foreign $olitical and security commitments that maintain sta"ility.

Since neither was signi5cantly altered during this $eriod& insta"ility should not ha/e "een e6$ected. !lternately&ad/ocates of hegemonic sta"ility could "elie/e that relati/e rather than a"solute s$ending is decisi/e in "ringing$eace. !lthough the United States cut "ack on its s$ending during the -@@4s& its relati/e ad/antage ne/er

wa/ered.0 >owe/er& even if it is true that either U'S' commitments or relati/e s$ending

account for global $aci5c trends& then at the /ery least sta"ility can e/idently "e maintained atdrastically lower le/els of "oth. =n other words& e/en if one can "e allowed to argue in the alternati/e for a moment

and su$$ose that there is in fact a level of engagement belo$ $hich the United

States cannot drop $ithout increasing international disorder% a rationalgrand strategist $ould still recommend cutting bac) on engagement andspending until that level is determined. 6rand strategic decisions arenever /nal continual adustments can and must be made as time goes on. Basic logic suggeststhat the United States ought to s$end the minimum amount of its "lood and treasure while seeking the ma6imumreturn on its in/estment. !nd if the current era of sta"ility is as sta"le as many "elie/e it to "e& no increase inconict would e/er occur irres$ecti/e of U.S. s$ending& which would sa/e untold trillions for an increasingly de"tridden nation.0 =t is also $erha$s worth noting that if o$$osite trends had unfolded& if other states had reacted tonews of cuts in U.S. defense s$ending with more aggressi/e or insecure "eha/ior& then internationalists would

surely argue that their e6$ectations had "een ful5lled' 7f increases in conHict $ould havebeen interpreted as proof of the $isdom of internationalist strategies%then logical consistency demands that the lac) thereof should at least pose aproblem. !s it stands& the only evidence $e have regarding the li)ely systemicreaction to a more restrained U nited S tates suggests that the currentpeaceful trends are unrelated to U'S' military spending. 8/idently the rest of



the $orld can operate Euite e*ectively $ithout the presence of a globalpoliceman' Those $ho thin) other$ise base their vie$ on faith alone'



# Aefugee crisis

Aefugee crisis inevitable , ne$ travel la$s(rin)ley #-!# W3oel& ?orld !7airs& 1he Coming Surge of Cu"an Refugees%&

ecem"er *,& htt$'www.worlda7airsDournal.orgarticlecomingsurgecu"anrefugeesYo one in ?ashington seems to "e $aying any attention to a ne$ Cuban la$ that takes e7ect ne6tmonth& $ossi"ly "ringing drastic conseEuences for the United States. =n #cto"er& the Cu"an go/ernment announced

that it $ould no longer re5uire the much&hated exit visa for anyone $ishingto travel abroad' ll a Cuban citi4en $ill need is a passport and a visa forthe country he plans to visit' This ne$ Cuban policy ta)es e*ect anuary!Rth. 1he $ro"lem is% under current merican la$% a visit< to the United Statescan immediately a$ard a Cuban full refugee status% then $ermanent residency and

citi:enshi$& under the Cuban dustment ct of !"MM' For decades& Cu"ans ha/e "een tryingto sail to the US and then dock or swim ashore "efore immigration agents catch u$ with them. For those who made

it $ast the US Coast Guard gauntlet& once their feet touched the "each they were gi/en legal admission. Duringthe /scal year that ended in September% the Coast 6uard said it caught

!%#JK Cubans trying to arrive by boatthe highest total since #--'Uncounted others made it ashore% $here they immediately received theiruni5ue merican embrace' Starting anuary !Rth% ho$ever% Cuba $ill allo$them to leave by any means of their choice' nd all they@ll have to do is$al) o* the airplane in 2iami or any$here else in the US to be a$ardedrefugee status' The change could lead to many thousands of ne$ Cubanrefugees every month& Doining the two million Cu"ans and their descendants already here. But you donJthear anyone in ?ashington e/en mentioning this $ro"lem& gi/en the urgent concerns a"out =ran& orth `orea& the5scal cli7& and so much else. 1he only national leader whoJs gotten close to raising this concern is Re$resentati/ea/id Ri/era& a Florida Re$u"lican& who addressed it during a cam$aign de"ate in #cto"er with his o$$onent& 3oeGarcia9who ended winning the election. Ri/era s$oke of re/ising the e6isting US law9"ut not to a/ert a ood ofnew Cu"an refugees. ! Cu"a hardliner& he com$lained a"out Cu"ans who a/ailed themsel/es of the "ene5ts!merica o7ers9"ut then returned to Cu"a& e/en Dust for a /isit. 1hese $eo$le& Ri/era a/erred& should not "e

allowed to "ecome !merican citi:ens.lready the number of Cubans coming to the USunder the existing la$s is spi)ing this year' ow& more of them are coming across the

"orders from Me6ico and Canada& immigration ocials say. But that shows a hunger to lea/e that is growing urgent

9e/en "efore the new law takes e7ect' 0hile the Cuban dustment ct is not on thegovernment@s agenda right no$% $hen the Hood of ne$ Cuban immigrantsbegins arriving next month% that is almost certain to change'



# +N6

[ero ris) of +N6 explosions , empirics and ne$ tech2elhem et al -M L 2h& 2rofessor of Structural 8ngineering

(r. G. !. Melhem& r. !. S. `alelkar& r. S. Saraf Managing G Risks' Se$aratingthe Facts from the Myths% u$dated *44A&htt$'archi/es-.iomosaic.comwhite$a$ersManaging_*4G_*4Risks.$df)>istorical re/iew of G safety in the United States and worldwide

1he G industry in the United States and worldwide enDoys an e6ce$tional marine andland safety record . =n the $ast thirty years& 3a$an has recei/ed nearly all of itsnatural gas in the form of G trans$orted "y shi$. #nce e/ery *4 hours an Gshi$ arri/es at the "usy 1okyo "ay& unloads its G cargo& and lea/es safely . =n the lastthree decades and with more than I4&444 /oyages "y sea worldwide& there has not "een a single re$orted G release from a shi$Js

cargo tank. G tankers ha/e e6$erienced groundings and collisions during this $eriod&"ut none has resulted in a maDor s$ill . 1his is $artly due to the dou"lehulled designof G tankers which o7ers signi5cant $rotection to the dou"le walled G containers. uring the $ast si6tyyears of G o$erations& not a single general $u"lic fatality has occurred anywherein the world "ecause of G o$erations.

1his e6ce$tional safety record can "e attri"uted to se/eral key factors' (a) 1he G industry understands the $hysical and chemicalha:ard characteristicsV of G and ha/e used that knowledge to instill and maintain an e6cellent safety culture in G o$erationsand to ad/ance the engineering of safety systems and standardsI for storage and trans$ort of G& (") 1he G industry is hea/ily

regulated, in the United States and worldwide& and (c) 1he use of multi$le layers of safeguarding ($rimary

containment& secondary containment& instrumented safety systems& o$erational systems& and safe se$aration distances) iscommon $ractice in G systems and o$erations.

+N6 explosions don@t cause extinction!S ;alel)ar& ;#--M& r. G. !. Melhem (2resident and C8# j ioMosaic)& r. !. S.`alelkar (2rinci$al Consultant j ioMosaic)& r. S. Saraf ($artner j ioMosaic)& and>enry #:og (general $artner j ioMosaic)& Managing G Risks' Se$arating the

Facts from the Myths&% ioMosaic Cor$oration (a leading $ro/ider of safety and riskmanagement consulting ser/ices)&htt$'archi/es-.iomosaic.comwhite$a$ersManaging_*4G_*4Risks.$df 2yth o. - n +N6 tan)er holds thirty three million gallons of G& or twenty"illion gallons of natural gas& the energy e5uivalent of /fty /ve 3iroshimabombs.act The estimation of hazard based on energy content is very misleading and erroneous . Using the

same flawed reasoning relating 3* energy content to ha4ard potential, one can conclude that

O V hours of sun shine o/er -4 sEuare feet eEuals V.* l"s of 11 e6$losi/eO #R gal automobile gasoline tan) e5uals !%##K lbs of TNT e6$losi/eO -&444 l"s of wood eEuals V&,V4 l"s of 11 e6$losi/eO -&444 l"s of coal eEuals I&I+4 l"s of 11 e6$losi/e

3a4ard potential depends on both the amount of energy and the rate at$hich it is released. 9nergy release during +N6 burning is relati/ely slo$.9xplosion energy is released lightning&li)e< causing the formation of ashoc) $ave that tra/els outwards and can cause se/ere damage to peopleand property.



+N6 , no impact , no targeting

No impact and no incentive for an +N6 attac) 1arrell J (Richard Farrell& Summer *44+& analyst for Cham"er Cor$oration&

Maritime 1errorism&% a/al ?ar College Re/iew& Hol A4 o V& 8BSC#)! recent study "y the ioMosaic Cor$oration draws u$on 5eld measurements& o$erational information&and engineering information on G /essels gathered o/er the last si6ty years.Z =t takes into accountterrorism and other twenty5rst century threats. 1he o/erall conclusion is straightforward9that inthe highly unli)ely event of a /ery large scale release of liEui5ed natural gas on land or water& signi5cant e7ects will "e felt in the immediate /icinity.Z,4 >owe/er& the 4one ofimpact $ould not extend any$here close to the thirty miles $redicted "y somegrou$s.Z s long as an +N6 vapor cloud is uncon/ned% it $ill not explode. cloud reaching a populated area $ould 5uic)ly /nd an ignition source andburn "ack to the s$ill site before it could cover large numbers of people. 7finHicting mass casualties is the terrorist goal% +N6 facilities and tan)ersare not good targets. C#1=U8. 18P1 #M=118. 1>=S =S F##1#18 ,4. ,4 !ccording to`alelkar et al. ($. I)& available data and explosion dynamics indicate that it is

not possible to detonate +N6 vapors % even $ith an explosive charge on astorage tan)% unless the +N6 vapors contain high fractions of ethane andpropane (more than *4 $er cent). 1hey claim that the li)elihood of this scenario ise5uivalent to $inning the Po$erball or 2egabuc)s lottery several timessimultaneously. For im$act& $. **



+N6 , no impact , no explosion

No impact to +N6 explosionStyles R (Geo7rey S?& Managing irector L GS? Strategy Grou$& C& 8nergy

#utlook%& ,-I& htt$'energyoutlook."logs$ot.com*44I4,lngdisastermo/iefront$ageoflast.html) 1he other remarka"le feature of this situation is the degree of fear "eing instilled "y those o$$osed to the Gterminals. !lthough = dont fault communities for wanting a say in the kind of industrial facilities that will "e in close$ro6imity to them& those discussions should still "e "ased on fact and not wild ra/ings. 1he ?all Street 3ournal cited

one +N6 opponent who claimed that the destructi/e potential of an +N6 tan)er$as eEui/alent to KK 3iroshima bombs (see analysis "elow). This reHects an irrationalfear& bolstered by un) science. =ts hard to argue with& "ut $e cannot base the nations

energy policies on paranoia. Many ha/e $icked u$ on the e6$losion at the G $lant in Skikda&!lgeria (see my "log of 3anuary *-) as e/idence of the risks of handling G& "ut e/en if that were a faircom$arisonand there are good reasons why it is notit is actually a $retty good illustration that the risks aresimilar to those associated with many kinds of industrial facilities and not orders of magnitude greater& as acti/istsassert. >a/ing recently seen $rosaic and trusted o"Dects turned into deadly wea$ons& it is natural to worry a "itmore a"out G than we might ha/e a few years ago. 8/ery G tankeralong with e/ery crude oil or gasolinetanker& tank truck& or rail carhas the $otential for destructi/e misuse. Ket we ha/e not grounded all air$lanes for

fear they will "e turned into cruise missiles& nor can we shun e/ery link in the energy chain on which we all rely.?hile we can minimi:e risk& we cannot eliminate it. !nd if you dont want the G terminal in your neigh"orhood&for reasons that seem $erfectly /alid to you& Dust e6actly whose neigh"orhood are you $ro$osing as an alternati/eT#r are you and your neigh"ors $re$ared to take your houses o7 the gas grid and heat them with something elseTFinally& for anyone interested in the atomic "om" com$arison& a few facts' -. ! fully loaded G tanker of -*4&444cu"ic meters ca$acity holds a"out ,4&444 tons of methane. *. 1he yield of the >iroshima "om" was eEui/alent to

*-&444 tons of 11. V. Conser/ati/ely assuming that TNT and methane have the same

energy content gives you a ratio of #'K% not KK& "ut we are not done yet. I. n

atomic bomb releases its energy (from the con/ersion of matter into energy& /ia our old friend

emc*) in !V!---th of a second' 1his makes for a stu$endous ash and e6$losion& with a surface

tem$erature com$ara"le to that of the sun. 1his is why e/ery >"om" has an !"om" trigger.,. chemicalexplosion of methane reEuires a narrow range of airfuel mi6 (,-,_) that could not be achievedall at once for the entire /olume of an +N6 tan)er. 7n the real $orld% it $ould ta)e

many seconds and $ro"a"ly minutes to consume all the a/aila"le fuel. A. The di*erence "etween $ointsI and , a"o/e is analogous to the di*erence bet$een going from M-&- mph byhitting a bric) $all% compared to a panic stop using the bra)es' The sameenergy is released% but in very di*erent $ays. +. =f it were easy to li"erate nuclear wea$onyields from large Euantities of fuel& $eo$le would "e doing this routinely. 1he closest we get is something like this.

!nd note that there is an enormous distinction "etween achie/ing !"om"like o/er$ressures in a/ery limited radius with a fuelair de/ice /s. the kind of widescale e7ects of an actual nuclear e6$losion.

http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/news_items/2004-01_algeria_factsheet.html

http://energyoutlook.blogspot.com/2004_01_01_energyoutlook_archive.html


http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/fae.htm

http://www.energy.ca.gov/lng/news_items/2004-01_algeria_factsheet.html


http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/fae.htm



+N6 , no impact , safety systems

No accidents ,

E Double hullsYuoddy (Bay C& Safety Q Security%& htt$'www.Euoddylng.comsafety.html)

1he ships $ill employ "oth double containment of their contents and doublehulls% ensuring a very lo$ ris) of any spills or accidents. This fullcontainment ensures that if leaks or spills do occur% the +N6 $ill be contained and isolated. 1he dou"le hulls ensure a /ery low risk that any "reach would e/en reach the hull containment tanks.

1he /essels are designed with a dou"le hull to ensure minimi:ation of leakage in the e/ent of a collision orgrounding& as well as se$arate "allast.

(E Safety systemsYuoddy (Bay C& Safety Q Security%& htt$'www.Euoddylng.comsafety.html)+N6 facilities have extensive% state&of&the&art $arning systems% includinggas detectors& ultra/iolet or infrared /re detectors& smo)e or com"ustion $roduct detectors&

low temperature detectors& and detectors to monitor G le/els and /a$or $ressures. Codes andstandards from state% national% and international agencies and institutionsinsure the chances of any releases are very small& and if there are releases& thevolume of the release is minimal. =n addition to warning systems& +N6 facilities have

automated /re/ghting systems& including foam& dry chemical& or water dis$ersal and

automatic shutdo$n systems.

2ultiple chec)s prevent +N6 terrorismYuoddy (Bay C& Safety Q Security%& htt$'www.Euoddylng.comsafety.html)!re G tankers and storage facilities likely terrorist targetsT 0 !ll $arts of our critical energy infrastructure ha/e"een reassessed since the terrorist attacks of Se$tem"er --& *44-. Security consciousness throughout the United

States is heightened. Shippers have redoubled their alreadystringent e*orts to ensure

security of trans$ortation and the safety of terminals. There is no indication that +N6 facilities or ships are more likely terrorist targets than other cargo shi$s or higher /isi"ility $oliticaltargets such as federal or state landmarks& $u"lic gatherings or "ridges and tunnels. onetheless& G su$$lierswork closely with U.S. agencies charged with national security& and many de/elo$ers contract with international

e6$erts who test their $lans& $rocedures& $eo$le& and training to ensure they are sound. First& stringentaccess controls exist at "oth the $oint of origin and the $oint of destination. (oth the liEuefaction and

regasi5cation terminals have gated security access and continuous surveillancemonitoring. e6t& highly s$eciali:ed& welltrained personnel serve as cre$members.

Before an G shi$ enters U.S. waters& the immigration ser/ice /alidates the crew. There is a bu*er4one re5uired bet$een tan)ers and other tra=c& and tug"oats control the direction of

tankers as they a$$roach a terminal. Oversight is handled by the U.S. Coast 6uard and host

$ort authority $ilots. Finally& the Coast 6uard boards ships "efore they enter U.S. waters if itdeems the ship a security ris) .



# frican $ar

No ris) of great po$er conHict over fricaRo"ert (arrett& 2h student Centre for Military and Strategic Studies& Uni/ersity

of Calgary& 3une -& #--K&htt$'$a$ers.ssrn.comsolVeli/ery.cfmSSRN=+*A-A*NcodeV*+,--.$dfTa"stractid+*A-A*Qmirid-?esterners eager to $romote democracy must "e wary of !frican $oliticians who $romise democratic reformwithout sincere commitment to the $rocess. #7ering money to corru$t leaders in e6change for their taking smallste$s away from autocracy may in fact "e a way of $ushing countries into anocracy. !s such& world 5nancial lendersand inter/entionists who wield le/erage and inuence must take res$onsi"ility in considering the rami5cations of!frican nations who ado$t democracy in order to maintain elite $olitical $ri/ileges. 1he o"/ious reason for this&aside from the $otential costs in human life should conict arise from hastily constructed democratic reforms& is thefact that ?estern donors& in the face of intrastate war would then "e faced with channeling funds and resourcesaway from democrati:ation e7orts and toward conict inter/ention "ased on issues of human security. 1his is a$ro"lem& as ?estern nations may "e increasingly wary of inter/ening in !frica hots$ots after e6$eriencing 5rsthandthe un$redicta"le and unforgi/ing nature of societal warfare in "oth Somalia and Rwanda. #n a cost"ene5t "asis&

the 0est continues to be somewhat reluctant to get to get involved in frica@sdirty $ars& e/idenced "y its $olitical hesitation when discussing ongoing sanguinary grassroots conicts in

!frica. 8/en as the world a$ologi:es for "earing witness to the Rwandan genocide without ha/ing inter/ened& theUnited States& recently using the label Qgenocide@ in the context of theSudanese conHict (in Se$tem"er of *44I)& has only proclaimed sanctions against Sudan&

$hile dismissing any suggestions at actual intervention (Giry& *44,). 2art of the

$ro"lem is that traditional military and diplomatic approaches at se$arating com"atants

and enforcing cease5res have yielded little in frica' No po$erful nations $ant toget embroiled in conHicts they cannot $in L es$ecially those conicts in which theinter/ening nation has /ery little interest.

7nternational multilateral action solves the impact to fricaninstability

1heo Neethling& Chair of the Su"Dect Grou$ 2olitical Science (Mil) in the School

for Security and !frica Studies at the Faculty of Military Science& Stellen"oschUni/ersity& #--K& o. -& !frican 3ournal of Conict Resolution&htt$'www.accord.org.:aaDcr*44,-!3CR*44,N$gsVVA4Nneethling.$df& $. ,+,;Be that as it may& it is e/ident that a range of international reforms throughout the international

system has ta)en place to facilitate peacebuilding endea/ours. 2uch $as indeed

done to facilitate a fundamental overhaul of the UN system% $hile maoraid agencies established conHict prevention and peacebuilding units. !lso&

some 0estern governments aligned their foreign% security and developmentpolicies and $rogrammes to respond to the conHict prevention andpeacebuilding agenda and challenges of the contem$orary international community. 1his meanssu$$orting $olicies& acti/ities& $rogrammes and $roDects which facilitate war$rone& wartorn or $ostwar countries toreco/er from conict in order to address longerterm de/elo$mental and security goals. !ll in all& it could "e argued

that this has led to a "etter understanding of the $olitical economy of armed conicts& as well as a driveto$ards applying appropriate strategies and $riorities to deal $ithdevelopmental and security challenges in responses to violent conHict and

ci/il war. #"/iously& this is of great importance from an frican perspective gi/en theacute need to a$$ly rele/ant and constructi/e measures and strategies in the search for sustaina"le de/elo$mentand longterm security on the continent.



Their nuclear escalation claim is empirically denied by do4ensof frican conHicts

1im Doc)ing& !frican !7airs S$ecialist with the United States =nstitute of 2eace&#--J& 1aking Sides Clashing Hiews on !frican =ssues& $. V+*No$here $as the scope and intensity of violence during the -@"-s as great as in

frica. 0hile the general trend of armed conHict in 8uro$e& !sia& the !mericas& and theMiddle 8ast fell during the -@;@@@ $eriod& the !""-s $itnessed an increase in thenumber of conHicts on the frican continent. uring this $eriod& -A U $eacekee$ingmissions were sent to !frica. (1hree countriesSomalia& Sierra eone& and !ngolawere /isited "y multi$le missionsduring this time.) Furthermore& this $eriod saw internal and interstate /iolence in a total of V4 su"Saharan states.

7n -@"" alone% the continent $as plagued by !M armed conHicts& se/en of whichwere wars with more than -&444 "attlerelated deaths (3ournal of 2eace Research& V+',& *444& $. AV;). =n *444& thesituation continued to deteriorate' renewed hea/y 5ghting "etween 8ritrea and 8thio$ia claimed tens of thousandsof li/es in the leadu$ to a 3une cease5re and ultimately the signing of a $eace accord in ecem"er continued/iolence in the emocratic Re$u"lic of Congo (RC)& Sierra eone& Burundi& !ngola& Sudan& Uganda& and igeria aswell as the out"reak of new /iolence "etween Guinea and i"eria& in im"a"we& and in the =/ory Coast ha/e"rought new hardshi$ and "loodshed to the continent.



# ;orean $ar

No $ar , escalation 3763+ unli)ely , deterrence chec)sRory 2edcalf (2rogram irector =nternational Security L at the owry =nstitute for

=nternational 2olicy) RV!-*4-V òrean ?ar ==T May"e& "ut not likely%&htt$'www.lowyinter$reter.org$ost*4-V4I4I!newòreanwarMay"e"utnotlikely.as$6= would $ut the analytical focus on a somewhat di7erent $lace. Deterrence is alive and $ell and at

home& for "etter or worse& in the sian century.0 Kes& those warning of war ha/e a $oint. n iconicact of limited aggression by the North is a real possibility. ìm ong&un

o"/iously feels he has lots to prove& and a fresh act of /iolence like the *4-4 sinking of the Cheonanor the "om"ardment of Keon$yeong =sland might Dust do the trick. Kes& the South has $romised to res$ond forcefullyto any future such $ro/ocations& and the US and $ossi"ly others would feel com$elled to "ack it u$. Kes& the young

ìm has thrown fairly much e/ery toy out the cot this time& and needs a facesa/ing way to Euieten down.0 (ut =

still assess& on balance% that the North ;orean leadership is a$are of the ris)s

of a spiral into the $ar% $hich $ould seal its fate . ?hy else& after 5rst $romising nuclear

attack& has 2yongyang lurched "ack to rather less a$ocaly$tic threats& such as restarting its Kong"yon reactor oro"structing South òrea workers at a Doint $roDectT !s for ordinary orth òreans& its not clear that they think!rmageddon is Dust around the corner.0 1he fate of orth òrea is less likely to "e a"out a highde5nition re$lay ofthe -@,4-@,V war than a"out change from within and e/entual regime failure leading to some seriously dangerousmoments for USChina di$lomacy (as e6$lored in Cha$ter , of this owy =nstitute re$ort). 0 So for the moment =

would $lay down the war talk. = $ut a small&scale North ;orean attac) in the .possible.

"asket& an escalation to large&scale conventional conHict in the .highly

unli)ely. "asket& and the chance of nuclear escalation pretty much as

remote as it has been for decades (which is not to say it is im$ossi"le).0 =f the ;orea

crisis of recent $ee)s underscores one reality it is the central and

continuing role of deterrence in sia.s security . =t e6$oses in $lain sight L as $lain as last

weeks much$u"licised B* stealth "om"ing run L the un$leasant fact that the security and $ros$erity of the !sian

century still rests on the e6istence of !merican military $ower and a $rofessed willingness to use it.

No$ $ar , at $orst miscalc cause small s)irmishes but no fullscale $ar2aplecroft Ne$s RV!--V ?ar on òrean 2eninsula unlikely& "ut furtherescalation could s$ur ca$ital ight from South L new risk "rie5ng%&htt$'ma$lecroft.coma"outnewscountryrisk"rie5ngsnkoreaa$ril-4.html!n ongoing series of provocative measures by North ;orea since conducting its third nuclear

test on -* Fe"ruary *4-V have escalated tensions in the ;orean peninsula and widerorth8ast !sia region. Ma$lecroftJs Country Risk Brie5ng for orth òrea makes detailed assessment of2yongyangs domestic moti/es and foreign $olicy consideration "ehind these actions. =n addition to $ro/idinggeneral analysis on the dynamics of this isolated and dynastic regime& the "rie5ng also e6amines regional securityim$lications co/ering all im$ortant stakeholders& such as China& US and 3a$an. =n $articular& the "rie5ng looks

closely at the $otential im$act on neigh"ouring South òrea and its security and "usiness en/ironment. 0 !ccordingto the "rie5ng& the ris) of a full&scale $ar on the ;orean Peninsula remains lo$ .

>owe/er& there is a moderate risk of military miscalculations leading to limiteds)irmishes& $articularly near the maritime "order in the 8ast China Sea. 1he heightened risk of smallscaleconfrontations will $ressure the US& South òrea and 3a$an to continue to increase their missile defence ca$a"ilities.

1his will "e unwelcome to China& des$ite its own concerns o/er orth òrean "eha/iour. BeiDing will continue toim$lement U sanctions more rigidly against orth òrea. =t will also urge all sides to the conict to resume si6$arty talks.



No escalation to ;orean conHicta/id ;ang (2rofessor of =nternational Relations and Business and irector of theòrean Studies =nstitute LUni/ersity of Southern California) ecem"er V- #-!- òreaJs ew Cold ?ar&% htt$'nationalinterest.orgcommentarykoreasnewcoldwarIA,V)>owe/er& des$ite dueling artillery "arrages and the sinking of a warshi$& $ledges of enormous retaliation&% inyour

face Doint military e6ercises and urgent calls for talks& the ris) of all&out $ar on the ;oreanpeninsula is less than it has been at any time in the $ast four decades. North ;oreadidn@t blin) & because it had no intention of actually starting a maor $ar.

Rather than signifying a new round of escalating tension "etween orth and South òrea& the events ofthe past year point to something else9a ne$ cold $ar "etween the two sides. =n fact& one of

my $et $ee/es is the analogies we use to descri"e the situation "etween South and orth òrea. 0e oftencall the situation a po$der )eg< or a tinderbox%< implying a veryunstable situation in $hich one small spar) could lead to a huge explosion.

But the evidence actually leads to the opposite conclusion' $e have gone

sixty years $ithout a maor $ar % despite numerous spar)s< such as the

s)irmishing and sho$s of force that occurred over the past month. 7f one

believes the situation is a tinderbox% the only explanation for six decades$ithout a maor $ar is that we ha/e "een e6traordinarily luc) y. = $refer the o$$osite e6$lanation'

deterrence is 5uite stable because both sides )no$ the costs of a maor$ar& and both sidesrhetoric and muscle&Hexing aside)eep smallerincidents in their proper perspective. >ow can this "e& $hen North ;oreathreatens to use massive retaliation and mentions its nuclear $eapons inits rhetoric& and $hen the South ;orean leadership and military isdetermined to Wrespond relentlesslyW to meet any North ;oreanprovocationT +ocal s)irmishing has stayed local for si6ty years. The )ey issue is$hether a local /ght could escalate into all&out $ar& such as orth òrea shelling Seoulwith artillery or missiles. Such a decision would clearly ha/e to "e taken at the to$ of the orth òrean leadershi$.8s$ecially when tensions are high& "oth militaries are on high alert and local commanders $articularly careful with

their actions. ?ithout a clear directi/e from the to$& it is not li)ely that a commander one hundredkilometers away from the military e6ercises $ould ma)e a decision on his o$n to startshooting at Seoul. For their $art& orth òrean leaders ha/e not made such a decision in si6ty years&

)no$ ing that any maor attac) on Seoul $ould cause a massive responsefrom the South ;orean and U'S' forces and $ould carry the $ar into

Pyongyang and beyond. fter the /ghting% North ;orea $ould cease to

exist . 1hus& while "oth orth and South òrean leaders talk in grim tones a"out war& both sides have

)ept the actual /ghting to locali4ed areas& and 7 have seen no indication that

this time the North ;orean leadership plans to expand the /ghting into ageneral $ar.

Deterrence SolvesCarlton 2eyer (8ditor L G* Military) #--F 1he Mythical orth òrean 1hreat&htt$'www.g*mil.comkorea.htm9ven if North ;orea employs a fe$ crude nuclear $eapons% using them$ould be suicidal since it $ould invite instant retaliation from the UnitedStates. orth òrea lacks the technical knowhow to "uild an =ntercontinental Ballistic Missile& des$ite the ho$esand lies from the ational Missile efense $ro$onents in the US!. orth òreas industrial $roduction is almost:ero& o/er two million $eo$le ha/e star/ed in recent years& and millions of homeless nomads threaten internalre/olution. 1he US military ignores this reality and retains old $lans for the de$loyment of I,4&444 G=s to hel$defend South òrea& e/en though the su$erior South òrean military can halt any orth òrean o7ensi/e without



hel$ from a single !merican soldier. merican forces are not even re5uired for acounter&o*ensive' North ;orean attac) $ould stall after a fe$ intensedays and South ;orean forces $ould soon be in position to overrun North;orea' merican air and naval po$er along $ith logistical and intelligencesupport $ould ensure the rapid collapse of the North ;orean army.

Deterrence solves escalation'a/id ;ang (assoc. $rof of go/t and adDunct assoc $rof at the 1uck School ofBusiness at artmouth) Summer #--F 1he !/oida"le Crisis in orth òrea% Orbis,

Volume 47, Issue 3 accessed /ia Science irectNorth ;orea has not attac)ed South ;orea for /fty years because

deterrence $or)s ' Despite the tension that has existed on the peninsula%

the armistice line has held' Neither side has attempted to mount a maormilitary operation % nor has either side attempted to challenge deterrenceon the peninsula'M Deterrence $ill continue to hold even if North ;oreadevelops and deploys a nuclear $eapon' eterrence reEuires "oth sides to know that theother side can inict unacce$ta"le costs on it. Since -@,V orth òrea has faced "oth a determined South òrean

military& and more im$ortant& U.S. military de$loyments that at their height com$rised -44&444 troo$s and nuclearti$$ed ance missiles and e/en today include V;&444 troo$s& nuclearca$a"le air"ases& and na/al facilities that

guarantee U.S. in/ol/ement in any conict on the $eninsula. 1he result has not "een sur$rising' althoughtension is high% the balance of po$er has been stable' 1ar from being anunstable QQpo$der )eg%@@ for /ve decades both sides have movedcautiously and avoided maor military mobili4ations that could spiral outof control' The balance of po$er has held because any $ar on thepeninsula $ould have disastrous conse5uences for both sides' 1he ca$itals ofSeoul and 2yongyang are less than -,4 miles a$art9closer than ew Kork and Baltimore. Seoul is V4 miles from thedemilitari:ed :one that se$arates the orth and the South (M)& and easily within reach of orth òreaJs artillerytu"es. U.S. General Gary uck estimates that a war on the òrean $eninsula would cost the US<- trillion ineconomic damage and result in one million casualties& including ,*&444 U.S. military casualties. 1he orth& althoughit has numerically larger armed forces& faces much more highly trained and ca$a"le U.S.South òrean armed

forces. 0ith the North gro$ing continually $ea)er relative to the South% the

chances for $ar become even slimmer' orth òrea ne/er had the material ca$a"ilities to "e aserious contender to the U.S.South òrean alliance& and it fell further "ehind early. So the real Euestion has not"een whether orth òrea would engage in a $re/enti/e attack as South òrea caught u$& "ut why orth òrea

might 5ght as it fell further and further "ehind. !s the "alance of $ower "egan to turn against the orth& theNorth deterred the U'S' from attempting to crush it through massiveconventional military deployments along the D2[. 8s$ecially "ecause Seoul is "oth/ulnera"le to air attack and the center of South òrean life& the South òrean go/ernment is Euite reluctant to

escalate tensions too Euickly. North ;orea@s militaryboth conventional and missilesystemsexist to deter the South and the U'S' from becoming tooadventurous' 1he $eninsular situation is more an uneasy stando7 than one of the orthJs "eing in a $osition

to in/ade the South. (oth sides are very careful% and neither $ishes to provo)e a$ar% )no$ing the destruction it $ould bring'



9nvironment DL



9nvironment !nc

No drilling in the s5uo , all companies have bailed'Mary O.6rady (is a mem"er of the editorial "oard at 1he ?all Street 3ourna) ?S3 L

!$ril *I& #-!F htt$'online.wsD.comarticleSB-444-I*I-*+;;+V*II+I44I,+;II*,--,A-I,;V@*.htmlThen came promises of an oil boom and last week the predictable bust' 1he

(ra4ilian stateowned 2etro"ras 281RI.BR -.4-_ had given up on deep&sea drilling inCuban waters in *4--. Aepsol R82.MC *.IA_ gave up in May #-!#. 1he dee$ water $latform it was

using was then $assed to 2alaysias stateowned 2etronas& which also came up empty.

Lene4uelas 2dHS! had no luc) either. =n o/em"er Cuba announced that the rig

that had been in use $ould be heading to sia. +ast $ee) came the end of

shallo$&$ater drilling'

Status 5uo solves , US inspections of rigsPadgett !# (1im& 1he #il #7 Cu"a' ?ashington and >a/ana ance at !rmsength #/er S$ill 2re/ention%& -*+&htt$'www.time.comtimeworldarticle4&;,@@&*-4,,@;&44.html)#n Christmas 8/e& a massive% Chinese&made maritime oil rig% the Scarabeo "%

arrived at 1rinidad and 1o"ago for ins$ection. 1he Spanish oil company Aepsol K2F& which kee$s

regional headEuarters in 1rinidad& ferried it to the Caribbean to perform deep&ocean

drilling o* Cuba 9 whose communist go/ernment "elie/es as much as *4 "illion "arrels of crude may lie

near the islands northwest coast. But it $asn.t Cuban authorities $ho came aboard the

Scarabeo " to give it the once&over ' o=cials from the U'S' Coast 6uard

and 7nterior Department did& even though the rig $on.t be operating inU'S' $aters. #n any other occasion that might ha/e raised the ire of the Cu"ans& who consider ?ashington

their im$erialista enemy. But the U'S' examination of the Scarabeo "& which Re$sol agreed to and

Cu"a a"ided& $as part of an unusual choreography of cooperation bet$een thet$o countries. 1heir otherwise "itter coldwar feud (they ha/ent had di$lomatic relations since -@A-) is "estknown for a ,4yearlong trade em"argo and historys scariest nuclear stando7. ow& Cu"as commitment too7shore oil e6$loration 9 drilling may start this weekend 9 raises a s$ecter that haunts "oth nations' an oil s$ill inthe Florida Straits like the B2 calamity that tarred the near"y Gulf of Me6ico two years ago and left <I4 "illion inU.S. damages. 1he Straits& an eEually /ital "ody of water thats home to some of the worlds most $recious coralreefs& se$arates >a/ana and `ey ?est& Florida& "y a mere @4 miles. !s a result& the U.S. has tacitly loosened itsem"argo against Cu"a to gi/e 5rms like Re$sol easier access to the U.S. eEui$ment they need to hel$ a/oid orcontain $ossi"le s$ills. Z2re/enting drilling o7 Cu"a "etter $rotects our interests than $re$aring for Wa disasterYdoes&Z U.S. Senator Bill elson of Florida tells 1=M8& noting the U.S. would $refer to sto$ the Cu"an drilling 9 "ut

cant. ZBut the two are not mutually e6clusi/e& and thats why we should aim to do "oth.Z Cuba mean$hile

has tacitly agreed to ensure that its safety measures meet U'S'standards (not that U.S. standards $ro/ed all that golden during the *4-4 B2 disaster) and is letting

uno=cial U'S' delegations in to discuss the precautions being ta)en by3avana and the international oil com$anies it is contracting. o Cu"an ocial would discuss the matter& "utan ?hittle& senior attorney for the 8n/ironmental efense Fund in ew Kork& who was $art of one recentdelegation& says the Cu"ans Zseem /ery moti/ated to do the right thing.Z



Cuban drilling is safe , access to technology and safetystandards proveSado$)si !# (Richard L Managing 8ditor of 2roduction of the 3ournal of=nternational Business and aw Hol. P& 3. Candidate at >ofstra Uni/ersity& Cu"an#7shore rilling' 2re$aration and 2re/ention within the Framework of the United

StatesJ 8m"argo%& *4-*&htt$'digitalcommons.wcl.american.educgi/iewcontent.cgiTarticle-I@+Qconte6tsdl$)1ears that Cuban o*shore drilling poses serious environmental threats

because of the proximity to the U nited S tates and the prohibition on U'S'

technology transfer are overblo$n . Cuba has at least as much incentive to

ensure safe&drilling practices as does the U nited S tates& and reports indicate

that Cuba is ta)ing safety seriously ' AI ee >unt& 2resident of the >ouston"ased =nternational

!ssociation of rilling Contractors& said& WtYhe Cuban oil industry has put a lot ofresearch% study and thought into $hat $ill be re5uired to safely drill &% and

that they are very )no$ledgeable of international industry practices

andhave incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory

planning and re5uirements.% A, 1hus& while the economic em"argo of Cu"a restricts !merican

technology from "eing uti li:ed& foreign sources have provided supplemental

alternatives . AA

9nvironment is resilient9asterbroo) "K (Gregg& istinguished Fellow L Full"right Foundation& ! Momenton 8arth& $. *,)=n the aftermath of e/ents such as o/e Canal or the 866on Halde: oil s$ill& e/ery reference to the en/ironment is$refaced with the adDecti/e Zfragile.Z ZFragile en/ironmentZ has "ecome a welded $hrase of the modern le6icon& likeZaging hi$$ieZ or Zfugiti/e 5nancier.Z But the notion of a fragile en/ironment is $rofoundly wrong. =ndi/idual animals&

$lants& and $eo$le are distressingly fragile. The environment that contains them is close toindestructible. 1he li/ing en/ironment of 8arth has sur/i/ed ice ages "om"ardments of

cosmic radiation more deadly than atomic fallout solar radiation more $owerful than the worstcase $roDection

for o:one de$letion thousandyear $eriods of intense /olcanism releasing glo"al air $ollution far worse

than that made "y any factory re/ersals of the $lanets magnetic $oles the rearrangement of continentstransformation of $lains into mountain ranges and of seas into $lains uctuations of ocean currents and the Detstream V44foot /acillations in sea le/els shortening and lengthening of the seasons caused "y shifts in the

$lanetary a6is collisions of asteroids and comets "earing far more force than mans nuclear arsenals and

the years without summer that followed these im$acts. Ket hearts "eat on& and $etals unfold still.?ere the en/ironment fragile it would ha/e e6$ired many eons "efore the ad/ent of the

industrial a7ronts of the dreaming a$e. 3uman assaults on the en/ironment& though mischie/ous& are

pinpric)s com$ared to forces of the magnitude nature is accustomed to

resisting .

No extinction9asterbroo) F (Gregg& istinguished Fellow L Full"right Foundation& ?eJre !llGonna ie%& ?ired Maga:ine& 3uly&htt$'www.wired.comwiredarchi/e--.4+doomsday.htmlT$g-Qto$icQto$icNset)



=f were talking a"out doomsday the end of human ci/ili:ation many scenarios sim$ly

dont measure u$. ! single nuclear "om" ignited "y terrorists& for e6am$le& would "e awful "eyond words&"ut life would go on. 2eo$le and machines might con/erge in ways that you and = would 5nd ghastly& "ut from the

stand$oint of the future& they would $ro"a"ly re$resent an ada$tation. 8n/ironmental colla$se mightmake $arts of the glo"e un$leasant& "ut considering that the "ios$here has sur/i/edice ages& it $ouldn.t be the /nal curtain . e$ression& which has "ecome -4 times more

$re/alent in ?estern nations in the $ostwar era& might grow so wides$read that /ast num"ers of $eo$le wouldrefuse to get out of "ed& a $ossi"ility that 2etranek suggested in a doomsday talk at the 1echnology 8ntertainmentesign conference in *44*. But Marcel 2roust& as misera"le as he was& wrote Remem"rance of 1hings 2ast whilelying in "ed.



No Drilling #nc

No Cuban drilling no$ , rigs have departed'a/id +a6esse #-!#re$orter& with recent articles that ha/e a$$eared in

ational Geogra$hic& Money& and most freEuently in U.S. ews Q ?orld Re$ort Lational Geogra$hic ews L o/em"er -@& *4-* Lhtt$'news.nationalgeogra$hic.comnewsenergy*4-*---*---@cu"aoilEuestn unusual hightech oildrilling rig that.s been at $or) o* the coast of Cuba departed last

week& headed for either !frica or Bra:il. 0ith it $ent the island nation.s best hope& at least in the

short term& for reaping a share of the energy treasure beneath the sea that se$arates

it from its longtime ideological foe.0 1or many Floridians& es$ecially in the Cu"an!merican community% it $as$elcome ne$s this month that Cuba had drilled its third unsuccessful $ell this year

and $as suspending dee$water oil exploration' (Related 2ictures' ZFour #7shore rilling FrontiersZ) ?hile

some feared an oil spill in the Straits of Florida& some +4 miles (--V kilometers) from the U.S. coast& others wereconcerned that drilling success would e6tend the re/iled reign of the Castros& longtime dictator Fidel and his "rother and hand$icked successor& Ral.

Drilling not inevitable over the long&term' No reserves in Cuba' Mary O.6rady (is a mem"er of the editorial "oard at 1he ?all Street 3ourna) ?S3 L!$ril *I& #-!F htt$'online.wsD.comarticleSB-444-I*I-*+;;+V*II+I44I,+;II*,--,A-I,;V@*.htmlAemember all the hype about Cuba drilling for oil in Cari""ean waters andmerican companies missing out on the bonan4a because of the U.S.

embargoG 0ell% li)e all the other Cuban get&rich&5uic) schemes of the $ast ,4

years& this one seems to have Hopped too.0 ast week& Floridas Sun Sentinel re$orted that Zafter

s$ending nearly <+44 million during a decade& energy companies from around the $orldhave all but abandoned their search for oil in deep $aters o* the northcoast of Cuba near Florida.Z Se$arately& Cu"aStandard.com re$orted on Friday that Zthe shallowwater

drilling $latform used "y Aussian oil com$any #!# aru"e:hneft $ill leave Cuban $aters 3une -& to"e rede$loyed to !sia.Z0 !ccording to the Sun Sentinel story& 3orge 2ion& an oilindustry guru who had "een

cheering Cu"as e6$loration attem$ts& said ZCompanies are saying% .0e cannot spend anymore capital on this highrisk e6$loration. ?ed rather go to Bra:il wed rather go to !ngola $e.drather go to other places in the $orld $here the technological and geological

challenges are less'Z



S5uo Solves #nc

US inspections of Cuban drilling e5uipment prevents spills ,ensures compliance

0S !# (?all Street 3ournal& Cu"a Re$sols Cu"a drilling rig com$lies with safetystandards%& --4& htt$'www."$c$lc.commediacentrenoncom$any$ressreleasescu"are$sol_*+scu"adrillingrigcom$lieswithsafetystandards.as$6)U'S' o=cials said Monday a rig operated by Spains Re$sol K2F that is expected to

drill o*shore Cuba in the coming months complies $ith international and U'S'

safety standards . U'S' personnel found the vessel to generally comply

$ith existing international and U'S' standards "y which Re$sol has $ledged to a"ide& theBureau of Safety and 8n/ironmental 8nforcement said in the $ress release. 1he agency& howe/er& noted that the/essel re/iew does not confer any form of certi5cation or endorsement under U.S. or international law and that theU.S. has no legal or regulatory authority o/er the rig. 1he /essel& named Scara"eo @& was ins$ected o7 the coast of

1rinidad and 1o"ago and it will "egin drilling a dee$water oil well later this year a"out -44 kms o7 the Florida eys.

Aepsol% $hich does business in the U'S'% had agreed to let U'S' federal

regulators inspect the rig "efore it enters Cu"an waters. The rig.s revie$ $as aimedat minimi4ing the possibility of a maor oil spill% which would hurt U.S. economic and

en/ironmental interests& the regulatory agency said. ?hile a"oard the Scara"eo @& U.S' o=cials revie$edvessel construction% drilling e5uipment% and safety systems&including lifesa/ingand 5re5ghting eEui$ment& emergency generators& dynamic $ositioning systems& machinery s$aces& and the"lowout $re/enter& according to agency. =n antici$ation of increased drilling acti/ities in the Cari""ean and Gulf of

Me6ico& the U'S' is in discussions $ith the Bahamas& Cuba& 3amaica and Me6ico on a broad

range of issues% including drilling safety% ocean modeling& and oil s$ill $re$aredness and

res$onse& in order to reduce the im$act of a maDor $ollution incident& the agency said.

US standards are met , solves the impact6eman !# (Ben& =nterior' Cu"a"ound drilling rig generallyJ meets US

standards%& -@& htt$'thehill.com"logse*wiree*wire*4V-A-interiorcu"a"ounddrillingriggenerallymeetsusstandards)The deep$ater drilling rig that S$anish oil giant Aepsol $ill use for planned oil

exploration o* Cuba@s coast is getting a clean bill of health from U'S'

o=cials. 1he United States has no regulatory authority o/er the drilling& "ut an 7nterior Departmentand Coast 6uard team $as invited to inspect the Scara"eo @ rig "y Re$sol& a checku$

that comes as $lanned drilling o7 Cu"aJs coast draws criticism from se/eral U.S. lawmakers. The revie$compared the vessel $ith applicable international safety and security

standards as $ell as U'S' standards for drilling units operating in the U.S. #uter

Continental Shelf. U'S' personnel found the vessel to generally comply $ith

existing international and U'S' standards "y which Re$sol has $ledged to a"ide&% the U.S.

agencies said in a Doint statement Monday u$on com$letion of the re/iew. 1he U.S. team re/iewed drillingeEui$ment& safety systems such as 5re5ghting eEui$ment and the unitJs "lowout $re/enter and other as$ects ofthe rig. ! num"er of U.S. lawmakers critical of the Cu"an go/ernment ha/e critici:ed Re$solJs $lanned $roDect&noting it will "ring re/enues to the Cu"an regime and that a s$ill could threaten near"y U.S. shores. More on that

here& here and here. The revie$ is consistent $ith U'S' e*orts to minimi4e the

possibility of a maor oil spill& $hich $ould hurt U.S. economic and environmental

interests&% =nterior and the Coast Guard said of the ins$ection& which occurred o7 the coast of 1rinidad and 1o"ago.



Safe Drilling #nc

Cuban and non&US prevention e*orts are su=cient no$'Richard Sado$s)i #-!! (is a Class of *4-* 3.. candidate& at >ofstra Uni/ersity0

School of aw& K. Mr. Sadowski is also the Managing 8ditor of 2roduction of0 the 3ournal of =nternational Business and aw Hol. P=. Cu"an #7shore rilling'2re$aration and0 2re/ention within the Framework of the United0 StatesJ 8m"argo%L 0 Sustaina"le e/elo$ment aw Q 2olicy0 Holume -* =ssue - Fall *4--' aturalResource Conicts !rticle -4 Lhtt$'digitalcommons.wcl.american.educgi/iewcontent.cgiTarticle-I@+Qconte6tsdl$1ears that Cuban o*shore drilling poses serious environmental0 threatsbecause of the $ro6imity to the United States and0 the prohibition on U'S' technologytransfer are overblo$n. Cuba0 has at least as much incentive to ensuresafe&drilling practices0 as does the United States& and reports indicate thatCuba is ta)ing0 safety seriously.AI ee >unt& 2resident of the >ouston"ased0 =nternational

!ssociation of rilling Contractors& said& \t]he0 Cuban oil industry has put a lot ofresearch% study and thought0 into $hat $ill be re5uired to safely drill&% and that

they are0 very )no$ledgeable of international industry practices and have0

incorporated many of these principles into their safety and regulatory0 planning

and reEuirements.%A, Thus% $hile the economic0 embargo of Cuba restrictsmerican technology from being utili4ed%0 foreign sources have providedsupplemental alternatives.AA

Training and international regulations solveTC !! (1ele/ision Camaguey& Cu"an S$ecialists Recei/e 1raining on Safe #ilrilling & A;& htt$'www.t/camaguey.co.cuenglishinde6.$h$scienceandtechnologyV,science@*cu"ans$ecialistsrecei/etrainingonsafeoil

drilling.html)Cuban specialists $ho are going to participate in the drilling of deep&

$ater exploratory $ells in Cuban $aters in the Gulf of Me6ico recently

participated in courses on safety and environment protection as part of

preparations for such activities. ! total of -*4 Cubans including executives%o=cials and technicians of enterprises involved in the oil industryparticipated in three seminars on the to$ic taught "y orwegian e6$erts. Manuel Marrero& chief oil and gas

s$ecialist of the Basic =ndustry Ministry& told !C the several&day training is vital to undertake

the dee$ and ultradee$water drillings scheduled to "egin in a few months. Current international

regulations for this )ind of operations are very rigorous in an e*ort to

protect the environment and avoid accidents such as the one that recently occurred in the

British 2retroleum $latform.



9nvironment Aesilient #nc

9nvironment resilient and improving , their authors lieDutton ! (r. ennis& 2rofessor of 2hiloso$hy L Uni/ersity of Canter"ury (ew

ealand)& Greener 1han Kou 1hink%& 1he ?ashington 2ost& -4*-&htt$'www.washington$ost.comac*w$dynT$agenamearticleQnodeQcontent=d!-*+;@*44-#ct-;)

1hat the human race faces en/ironmental $ro"lems is unEuestiona"le. 1hat en/ironmental e6$erts ha/e

regularly tried to scare us out of our wits with doomsday chants is also "eyond dis$ute. =n the -@A4so/er$o$ulation was going to cause massi/e worldwide famine around -@;4. ! decade later we were "eing told theworld would "e out of oil "y the -@@4s. 1his was an es$ecially chilly $ros$ect& since& as ewsweek re$orted in -@+,&we were in a climatic cooling trend that was going to reduce agricultural out$uts for the rest of the century& leading$ossi"ly to a new =ce !ge. BDorn om"org& a young statistics $rofessor and $olitical scientist at the Uni/ersity of!arhus in enmark& knows all a"out the enduring a$$eal for Dournalists& $oliticians and the $u"lic ofen/ironmental doomsday tales& ha/ing swallowed more than a few himself. =n -@@+& om"org a selfdescri"ed leftwinger and former Green$eace mem"er came across an article in ?ired maga:ine a"out 3ulian Simon& a

Uni/ersity of Maryland economist. Simon claimed that the ZlitanyZ of the Green mo/ement its fearsa"out o/er$o$ulation& animal s$ecies dying "y the hour& deforestation was hysterical

nonsense& and that the Euality of life on t he $lanet was radically improving. om"org wasshocked "y this& and he returned to enmark to set a"out doing the research that would refute Simon. >e and

his team of academicians disco/ered something so"ering and cheering' =n e/ery one of his claims&

Simon was correct. Moreo/er& om"org found on close analysis that the factual foundation onwhich the en/ironmental doomsayers stood was deeply Ha$ed' e6aggeration&

$re/arications& white lies and e/en con/enient ty$ogra$hical errors had "een a"sor"edunchallenged into the folklore of en/ironmental disaster scenarios.



No 9xtinction #nc

3umans $ill survive despite biodiversity lossSago* "J (Mark& Senior Research Scholar j =nstitute for 2hiloso$hy and 2u"lic

$olicy in School of 2u"lic !7airs j U. Maryland& ?illiam and Mary aw Re/iew&=S1=1U18 #F B= #F R=G>1S !? SKM2#S=UM 8F==G 1!`=GS' 2R=H!182R#28R1K ! 1>8 FU1UR8 #F G#H8RM81 R8GU!1=#' MU8 #R MU8

1>R#UG>T 1!`=GS 3UR=S2RU8C8 M881S 1>8 8!G8R8 S28C=8S !C1%& V;?m and Mary . Re/. ;*,& March& )lthough one may agree with ecologists such as 8hrlich and Ra/en that the earth stands on the brin) of an

e$isode of massive extinction& it may not follo$ from this grim fact that human beings$ill su*er as a result. #n the contrary& s)eptics such as science writer Colin Tudge have challengedbiologists to explain $hy $e need more than a tenth of the !- to !--million species that grace the earth' Noting that Wcultivated systems oftenout&produce $ild systems by !--&fold or more%W Tudge declared that Wtheargument that humans need the variety of other species is% when you think a"out it& a

theological one.Z nVIV 1udge o"ser/ed that Wthe elimination of all but a tiny minority ofour fello$ creatures does not a*ect the material $ell&being of humans oneiota'W nVII 1his ske$tic challenged ecologists to list more than -4&444 s$ecies (other than unthreatened micro"es) that are essential to ecosystem

$roducti/ity or functioning. nVI, ZThe human species could survive ust as $ell if ""'"X ofour fello$ creatures $ent extinct % provided only that $e retained theappropriate -'!X that $e need'W nVIA WX@4AY 1he monumental Glo"al Biodi/ersity !ssessment (Zthe !ssessmentZ)identi5ed two $ositions with res$ect to redundancy of s$ecies. Z!t one e6treme is the idea that each s$ecies is uniEue and im$ortant& such that itsremo/al or loss will ha/e demonstra"le conseEuences to the functioning of the community or ecosystem.Z nVI+ 1he authors of the !ssessment& a $anel of eminent ecologists& endorsed this $osition& saying it is Zunlikely that there is much& if any& ecological redundancy in communities o/er time scales ofdecades to centuries& the time $eriod o/er which en/ironmental $olicy should o$erate.Z nVI; 1hese eminent ecologists reDected the o$$osing /iew& Zthenotion that s$ecies o/erla$ in function to a sucient degree that remo/al or loss of a s$ecies will "e com$ensated "y others& with negligi"le o/erall

conseEuences to the community or ecosystem.Z nVI@ #ther biologists believe& howe/er& that species are sofabulously redundant in the ecological functions they perform that thelife&support systems and processes of the planet and ecological processesin general $ill function perfectly $ell $ith fe$er of them % certainly fe$erthan the millions and millions $e can expect to remain even if everythreatened organism becomes extinct' n560 9ven the )ind of sparse and misera"le $orld depicted in the mo/ie (lade Aunner could provide a WsustainableW contextfor the human economy as long as $eo$le forgot their aesthetic and moral commitment to the glory and "eauty of the naturalworld. nV,- 1he !ssessment makes this $oint. Z!lthough any ecosystem contains hundreds to thousands of s$ecies interacting among themsel/es andtheir $hysical en/ironment& the emerging consensus is that the system is dri/en "y a small num"er of . . . "iotic /aria"les on whose interactions the"alance of s$ecies are& in a sense& carried along.Z nV,* WX@4+Y 1o make u$ your mind on the Euestion of the functional redundancy of s$ecies& consideran endangered s$ecies of "ird& $lant& or insect and ask how the ecosystem would fare in its a"sence. 1he fact that the creature is endangered suggests an

answer' it is already in lim"o as far as ecosystem $rocesses are concerned. 0hat crucial ecological services doesthe blac)&capped vireo% for example% serveG re any of the speciesthreatened $ith extinction necessary to the provision of any ecosystemservice on $hich humans dependG 7f so% $hich ones are theyG 8cosystems and the

s$ecies that com$ose them ha/e changed& dramatically& continually& and totally in /irtually e/ery $art of the United States. There is little

ecological similarity% for example% bet$een Ne$ 9ngland today and theland $here the Pilgrims died' nFKF 7n vie$ of the constant recon/gurationof the biota% one may $onder $hy mericans have not su*ered more as aresult of ecological catastrophes' 1he cast of s$ecies in nearly e/ery en/ironment changes constantlylocal e6tinctionis common$lace in nature"ut the cro$s still grow. Somehow& it seems& $ro$erty /alues kee$ going u$ on Marthas Hineyard in s$ite of the tragic

disa$$earance of the heath hen. One might argue that the sheer number and variety ofcreatures available to any ecosystem bu*ers that system against stress' !ccordingly& we should "e concerned if the Zli"raryZ of creatures ready& willing& and a"le to coloni:e ecosystems gets too small. (!d/ances in genetic

engineering may well $ermit us to write a large num"er of additions to that Zli"rary.Z) 7n the United States as in manyother parts of the $orld% ho$ever% the number of species has been



increasing dramatically% not decreasing% as a result of human activity' Thisis because the hordes of exotic species coming into ecosystems in theUnited States far exceed the number of species that are becoming extinct '=ndeed& introductions may outnum"er e6tinctions "y more than ten to one& so that the United States is "ecoming more and more s$eciesrich all the time largely as a result of humanaction. nV,I WX@4;Y 2eter Hitousek and colleagues estimate that o/er -444 nonnati/e $lants grow in California alone in >awaii there are ;A- in Florida& -*-4. nV,, =n Florida morethan -444 nonnati/e insects& *V s$ecies of mammals& and a"out -- e6otic "irds ha/e esta"lished themsel/es. nV,A !nyone who waters a lawn or hoes a garden knows how manyweeds desire to grow there& how many "irds and "ugs /isit the yard& and how many fungi& cree$ycrawlies& and other odd life forms show forth when it rains. !ll "elong to nature& fromwhere/er they might hail& "ut not many homeowners would claim that there are too few of them. ow& not all e6otic s$ecies $ro/ide ecosystem ser/ices indeed& some may "edisru$ti/e or ha/e no instrumental /alue. nV,+ 1his also may "e true& of course& of nati/e s$ecies as well& es$ecially "ecause all e6otics are nati/e somewhere. Certain e6otic s$ecies&howe/er& such as entucky "lue grass& esta"lish an areas sense of identity and $lace others& such as the green cra"s showing u$ around Marthas Hineyard& are nuisances. nV,;Consider an analogy WX@4@Y with human migration. 8/eryone knows that after a generation or two& immigrants to this country are hard to distinguish from e/eryone else. 1he /astmaDority of !mericans did not e/ol/e here& as it were& from hominids most of us Zcame o/erZ at one time or another. 1his is true of many of our fellow s$ecies as well& and they may 5t inhere Dust as well as we do. =t is $ossi"le to distinguish e6otic s$ecies from nati/e ones for a $eriod of time& D ust as we can distinguish immigrants from nati/e"orn !mericans& "ut as thecenturies roll "y& s$ecies& like $eo$le& 5t into the landsca$e or the society& changing and often enriching it. Shall we ha/e a rule that a s$ecies had to come o/er on the Mayower& as somany did& to count as ZtrulyZ !mericanT 2lainly not. ?hen& then& is the cuto7 dateT =nsofar as we are concerned with the a"solute num"ers of Zri/etsZ holding ecosystems together&e6tinction seems not to $ose a general $ro"lem "ecause a far greater num"er of kinds of mammals& i nsects& 5sh& $lants& and other creatures thri/e on land and in water in !merica

today than in $rela$sarian times. nV,@ The 9cological Society of merica has urged managers tomaintain biological diversity as a critical component in strengtheningecosystems against disturbance' nFM- et as Simon +evin observed% Wmuch ofthe detail about species composition $ill be irrelevant in terms ofinHuences on ecosystem properties'W nVA- WX@-4Y >e added' ZFor net $rimary $roducti/ity& as is likely to "e the

case for any system $ro$erty& biodiversity matters only up to a pointZ above a certainlevel% increasing biodiversity is li)ely to ma)e little di*erence.Z nVA* 0hatabout the use of plants and animals in agricultureG There is no scarcityforeseeable' WOf an estimated -%--- types of plants \$e] )no$ to be

edible&Z a U.S. e$artment of the =nterior document says& Zonly about !K- are extensivelycultivated.Z nVAV !"out twenty s$ecies& not one of which is endangered& $ro/ide ninety $ercent of the food the world takes from $lants. nVAI !ny new food has to takeZshelf s$aceZ or Zmarket shareZ from one that is now $roduced. Cor$orations also 5nd it dicult to create demand for a new $roduct for e6am$le& $eo$le are not inclined to eat $aw$aws& e/en though they are delicious. =t is hard enough to get $eo$le to eat their "roccoli and lima "eans. =t is harder still to de/elo$ consumer demand for new foods. 1his may "e thereason the raft Cor$oration does not $ros$ect in remote $laces for rare and unusual $lants and animals to add to the worlds diet. #f the roughly *V,&444 owering $lants and V*,&444nonowering $lants (including mosses& lichens& and seaweeds) a/aila"le& farmers ignore /irtually all of them in fa/or of a /ery few that are $ro5ta"le. nVA, 1o "e sure& any of the more

than A44&444 s$ecies of $lants could ha/e an a$$lication in agriculture& "ut would they "e $refera"le to the s$ecies that are now dominantT 3as anyone foundany consumer demand for any of these half&million or more plants toreplace rice or $heat in the human dietT 1here are reasons that farmers culti/ate rice& wheat& and corn ratherthan& say& Fur"ishs lousewort. 1here are many kinds of louseworts& so named "ecause these weeds were thought to cause lice in shee$. >ow many doesagriculture really reEuireT WX@--Y 1he s$ecies on which agriculture relies are domesticated& not naturally occurring they are de/elo$ed "y arti5cial notnatural selection they might not "e a"le to sur/i/e in the wild. nVAA 1his argument is not intended to deny the religious& aesthetic& cultural& and moralreasons that command us to res$ect and $rotect the natural world. 1hese s$iritual and ethical /alues should e/oke action& of course& "ut we should alsorecogni:e that they are s$iritual and ethical /alues. ?e should recogni:e that ecosystems and all that dwell therein com$el our moral res$ect& ouraesthetic a$$reciation& and our s$iritual /eneration we should clearly seek to achie/e the goals of the 8S!. 1here is no reason to assume& howe/er& thatthese goals ha/e anything to do with human well"eing or welfare as economists understand that term. 1hese are ethical goals& in other words& noteconomic ones. 2rotecting the marsh may "e the right thing to do for moral& cultural& and s$iritual reasons. ?e should do it"ut someone will ha/e to $ay

the costs. =n the narrow sense of $romoting human welfare& protecting nature often represents a netWcost%W not a net Wbene/t'W 7t is largely for moral% not economic% reasons&ethical% not prudential% reasons& that $e care about all our fello$creatures' 1hey are /alua"le as o"Dects of lo/e not as o"Dects of use. ?hat is good for WX@-*Y the marsh may "e good in itself e/en if it is not&in the economic sense& good for mankind. 1he most /alua"le things are Euite useless.



# oil spills

No impact , ocean current trumps proximity , oil $ill not reachHorida )eys , the biological hot spots

8mily !. Peterson0 aniel 3. 0hittle& 3..0 and ouglas . Aader& 2h.0

ecem"er #-!# Bridging the Gulf 0 Finding Common Ground on 8n/ironmental and0 Safety 2re$aredness for #7shore #il and Gas in Cu"a%&htt$'www.edf.orgsitesdefault5les8FBridgingNtheNGulf*4-*.$df 7n assessing the potential threat to U'S' shores% many often reference that

`ey ?est& 1lorida 0 is a mere - miles from the 3aguey $ros$ect site where Re$sol drilled in

CubaJs 88& north of 0 >a/ana& in s$ring *4-*.V+ =n fact& se/eral other factors9such as theprevailing ocean current& 0 wind direction and velocity& water tem$erature& and ty$e of oil

s$illed 9 also play critical roles 0 in determining the direction and s$eed of spilled

oil. 1hus& despite the geographic proximity 0 of the ecologically /alua"le 1lorida ;eys

to the rig site in Cuba& scientists from the ational 0 #ceanic and !tmos$heric !dministration

(NOE estimate that the

probability of oil traveling

0

froma $otential

blo$outat the Aepsol rig site to the 1lorida ;eys $as comparatively lo$ .V;0 oug

3elton& operations coordinator for the oce of res$onse and restoration at NO& 0

emphasi4ed that the dominance of ocean currents can trump distance in

inHuencing the 0 direction of an oil slic)' 1he currents are like a con/eyor "elt at the grocerystore&% he told 1he 0 Miami >erald.

Oil spill predictions are not accurate8mily !. Peterson0 aniel 3. 0hittle& 3..0 and ouglas . Aader& 2h.0

ecem"er #-!# Bridging the Gulf 0 Finding Common Ground on 8n/ironmental and0 Safety 2re$aredness for #7shore #il and Gas in Cu"a%&

htt$'www.edf.orgsitesdefault5les8FBridgingNtheNGulf*4-*.$df?hile areas at risk of immediate im$act a$$ear to "e those along the Straits of Florida and 0 U.S. south !tlantic

coast& scientists are careful to note that the models are far from precise& 0 authoritati/e forecasts. #!! s$ecialists themsel/es em$hasi:e that the models /ary signi5cantly "ased on

weather data and location of the drilling site. Aichard Sears& who served as chief 0 scienti/cadvisor on the federal commission that in/estigated the Deep$ater 3ori4on disaster& 0

stressed there $as signi/cant uncertainty in proecting the path of the (P

oil slic) in *4-4& e/en 0 with the com"ined technical e6$ertise of federal agencies and $ri/ate com$anies.I*0

There $ere a $ide array of models surrounding the (P spill& ranging from

most of the 0 #il $roDected to come ashore to +ouisiana& Mississi$$i& !la"ama& and Florida9to a

signi/cant 0 portion going out through the Straits of 1lorida and u$ the 8ast Coast

towards orth Carolina&% 0 Sears said in a $ersonal inter/iew. Neither of those happened .%IV0

Sears described the added complexity of estimating the oil@s verticalmovement' There $ere 0 a lot of surprises with Macondo a"out where the oil went&% Searse6$lained& not only in two 0 dimensions& "ut also in terms of three dimensional im$acts within the watercolumn.%II0 2re$aring for a $otential s$ill in Cu"aJs 88 highlights the underlying uncertainty in 0 $redicting thetraDectory of a s$ill& $articularly with regards to $ossi"le shoreline im$acts 0 and"iological threats within the watercolumn and on the seaoor. 1his lack of $redicta"ility 0 reinforces the im$ortance of o$ening lines of communicationand e6$anding U.S.Cu"an 0 coo$eration to ensure that any containment and res$onse strategy would "eim$lemented 0 e7ecti/ely using the most timely incident u$dates.



# sanctions bloc) US spill assistance

Sanctions $on@t bloc) US safety response , 3elix proves'8rika (olstad McClatchy ews$a$ers L May -4& #-!# L

htt$'www.mcclatchydc.com*4-*4,-4-I;IVVcu"aem"argocouldthreatenoil.html^.UaoU?$y!E4Several of the experts said 1hursday they are con/dent that the Treasury e$artment

could react 5uic)ly in an emergency to allo$ U'S' oil response teams toget emergency permits to do business $ith the Cuban go/ernment.0 Thedepartment% which o/ersees the em"argo& has authori4ed an !merican 5rm& 3elix 9nergySolutions% to handle spill response for Aepsol. =tJs a redta$e ordeal that companyo=cials said they@ll ha/e to repeat $hen $or)ing $ith the other companiesthat have contracted to use the same rig ne6t in Cuban $aters'



China DL



China !nc

2ultiple alt causes ,

E Political vie$s3anson and +ee !F (Ste$hanie and Brianna L Council on Foreign Relations&U.S.Cu"a Relations%& -V-& htt$'www.cfr.orgcu"auscu"arelations$----V)0hat is the main obstacle in U'S'&Cuban relationsT fundamental

incompatibility of political vie$s stands in the $ay of improving U'S'&

Cuban relations% experts say' 0hile experts say the U nited S tates $ants

regime change% Wthe most important obective of the Cuban government is

to remain in po$er at all costs&Z says Feli6 Martin& an assistant $rofessor at Florida =nternational

Uni/ersitys Cu"an Research =nstitute. 1idel Castro has been an inspiration for +atinmerican leftists such as Hene:uelan 2resident >ugo Ch^ve4 and Boli/ian 2resident 8/o

2orales& who ha/e challenged U.S. $olicy in the region.

(E 3uman Aights% 6uantanamo% and Cuban exiles3anson and +ee !F (Ste$hanie and Brianna L Council on Foreign Relations&U.S.Cu"a Relations%& -V-& htt$'www.cfr.orgcu"auscu"arelations$----V)0hat are the issues preventing normali4ation of U'S'&Cuba relationsT

9xperts say these issues include' 3uman rights violations . =n March *44V& the

Cuban government arrested seventy&/ve dissidents and ournalists& sentencing

them to $rison terms of u$ to twentyeight years on charges of conspiring $ith the United States to o/erthrow the state. 1he Cu"an Commission for >uman Rights and ational Reconciliation& a >a/ana"ased

nongo/ernmental grou$& re$orts that the government has in recent years resorted to othertactics besides $rison such as 5rings from state Do"s and intimidation on the street to silence o$$osition5gures. ! *44, U >uman Rights Commission /ote condemned Cu"as human rights record& "ut the country was

elected to the new U >uman Rights Council in *44A. 6uantanamo (ay . Cu"a indicated after @-- that it

would not o"Dect if the United States "rought $risoners to Guantanamo Bay. >owe/er& experts such as Sweig

say Cuban o=cials have since sei4ed on the U'S' prison campwhere hundreds of

terror sus$ects ha/e "een detainedas a W symbol of solidarity Z $ith the rest of the

$orld against the U nited S tates. !lthough #"ama ordered Guantanamo to "e closed "y 3anuary **&

*4-4& the facility remains open as of 3anuary *4-V& and many analysts say it is likely to stay in

o$eration for an e6tended $eriod. Cuban exile community . The Cuban&merican

community in southern Florida traditionally has heavily inHuenced U'S' policy

$ith Cuba. (oth political parties fear alienating a strong voting bloc in an

important s$ing state in presidential elections'

CE The rest of the 9mbargo , the plan is only a fraction3anson !F (aniel L economics researcher at the !merican 8nter$rise =nstitute&=ts 1ime For 1he U.S. 1o 8nd =ts Senseless 8m"argo #f Cu"a%& --A&htt$'www.for"es.comsitesreals$in*4-V4--Aitstimefortheustoenditssenselessem"argoofcu"a)?hile the em"argo has "een through se/eral legal iterations in the inter/ening years& the general tenor

of the U'S' position to$ard Cuba is a hardline not&in&my&bac)yard



approach to communism a la the Monroe octrine. The o=cial position is outdated%

hypocritical% and counterproductive . 1he Cu"an em"argo was inaugurated "y a `ennedy

administration e6ecuti/e order in -@A4 as a res$onse to the con5scation of !merican $ro$erty in Cu"a under the

newly installed Castro regime. The current incarnation of the embargo L codi5ed $rimarily in

the >elmsBurton !ct L aims at producing free mar)ets and re$resentati/e democracy in Cuba

through economic sanctions & travel restrictions & and international legal

penalties .

Tai$an&China relations are highCole !# 1ai$ei"ased Dournalist who focuses on military issues in ortheast !siaand in the 1aiwan Strait (3. Michael& @V& Z1aiwan >edges its Bets on China&Zhtt$'thedi$lomat.comash$oints"log*4-*4@4Vtaiwanhedgesits"etsagainstchina)(y a number of yardstic)s % relations in the Tai$an Strait today are the

best they@ve been in years % if not ever . But if a re$ort released "y 1aiwanJs Ministry of

ational efense (M) on Friday is any indication& 1aiwanese go/ernment ocials donJt a$$ear to "e con/inced

that such dtente will last for /ery long. ?ithout dou"t& the pace of normali4ation in relationsbet$een Tai$an and China% es$ecially at the economic le/el& has accelerated

dramatically since 2a KingDeou of the Chinese ationalist 2arty (`M1) $as elected in *44;& a

$rocess that is e6$ected to continue with Ma securing a second fouryear term in 3anuary. =n addition to thelandmark 8conomic Coo$eration Framework !greement (8CF!) signed in 3une *4-4& the go/ernments on "oth sidesha/e inked at least -A agreements touching on /arious as$ects of crossstrait relations& including an agreementreached on Friday that will allow "anks in 1aiwan to clear renmin"i transactions& a mo/e that o"/iates the need for

con/erting the currency into U.S. dollars "efore a transaction can "e made. Beyond trade& visits to Tai$anby Chinese o=cials have become almost routine& a limited number of Chinesecan no$ study at Tai$an@s universities& Chinese tourism to the island hasboomed& and oint exercises by the countries@ respective coast guards areno$ held every other year since *4-4& mostly for the $ur$ose of searescue o$erations in the waterso7 1aiwanJs `inmen and ChinaJs Piamen.

No US&China $ar , economicsShor !# (Francis& 2rofessor of >istory L ?ayne State& eclining US >egemonyand Rising Chinese 2ower' ! Formula for ConictT%& 2ers$ecti/es on Glo"ale/elo$ment and 1echnology& --(-)& $$. -,+-A+)0hile the U nited S tates no longer dominates the glo"al economy as it did during the

5rst two decades after ??==& it still is the leading economic po$er in the $orld.

3o$ever& over the last fe$ decades China& with all its internal contradictions& hasmade enormous leaps until it no$ occupies the number t$o spot. =n fact&the =MF recently $roDected that the Chinese economy would "ecome the worlds largest in *4-A. =nmanufacturing China has dis$laced the US in so many areas& including "ecoming the num"er one $roducer ofsteel and e6$orter of four5fths of all of the te6tile $roducts in the world and twothirds of the worlds co$y

machines& H $layers& and microwa/es o/ens. Ket& a signi/cant portion of thismanufacturing is still o$ned by foreign companies% including U'S' /rms

li)e 6eneral 2otors. W,Y #n the other hand& China is also the largest holder of

U'S' foreign reserves & e'g' treasury bonds . This may be one of the

reasons mitigating full&blo$n conHict $ith the U'S' no$& since China has such a

large stake in the U.S. economy& "oth as a holder of "onds and as the leading e6$orter of goods to the U.S.onetheless& Zthe U.S. has "locked se/eral large scale Chinese in/estments and "uyouts of oil com$anies&technology 5rms& and other enter$rises.Z WAY =n e7ect& there are still clear nationcentric res$onses to Chinas



rising economic $ower& es$ecially as an e6$ression of the U.S. go/erning elites ideological commitment tonational security.



lt Cause , 6uantanamoV3uman Aights

6uantanamo bay sends a contradictory signal , preventsnormali4ation of relations

Lin)e " (`ira L Council on >emis$heric !7airs& Re/am$ing U.S.Cu"an 2olitics'2laying the Guantnamo Card in a Game of Constructi/e i$lomacy%& *44@&htt$'www.coha.orgre/am$inguscu"an$olitics$layingtheguantanamocardinagameofconstructi/edi$lomacy)!n =n/estigati/e Stronghold' ! i$lomatic Catastro$he U'S' foreign policy to$ards Cuba has

not only been ine*ective% but also contradictory . The supposed purpose of

the RJ&year&old U'S' embargo on Cuba $as to bring democracy to the Cu"an

$eo$le'< 3o$ever% the U'S' government itself moved suspects fromdetention camps li)e the one in 6uant^namo to secret prisons all o/er the worldso as not to "e "ound "y the restraints of a democratic legal system. 1hese actions re/eal the inherently du$licitousnature of U.S. $olicy in this regard. !lthough 2resident #"ama has now signed an order to close Guantnamo withinthe ne6t year& he has failed to take a moral high ground% on other !merican detention centers that ha/e "eenha/ens for the U.S. to carry out unlawful& undemocratic $ractices. For instance& detainees at the Bagram detention

center in !fghanistan were recently denied the right to challenge their case "efore a neutral Dudge an outrightinconsistency in the U.S.J socalled restoration of democracy. 1his makes $erfectly clear that e7ecti/elyreesta"lishing ?ashingtonJs re$utation for $ro"ity a"road will not end with the closing of the internment cam$ in

Guantnamo. 7f Obama is serious about undoing U'S' policy in the course of its$ar on terror& and if he wants to again make this country into a law a"iding society& he $ill have toensure fair trials for all suspects formerly detained by the U'S' at

6uant^namo (ay and then return the military base to Cub a% marking a clear "reak

with its dark history. Such a reconstruction of relations $ould be bene/cial for

both partners& economically& $olitically and socially& es$ecially due to the close geogra$hic $ro6imity of thetwo nations.

6uantanamo and multiple rights violations impede solvency

Sill No Date (=gor L Merton Fellow who earned his Masters egree from #6fordUni/ersity& Hiew$oints' #"ama& U.S.Cu"an Relations and Guantanamo Bay%&htt$'www.f$a.orgto$icsNinfo*I-Ito$icsNinfoNshow.htmTdocNid@4AV,,)6uantanamo (ay has resurfaced in the news once again. #nce known as a notorious $rison formore than A+4 US enemy com"atants who ha/e "een incarcerated& interrogated and some& allegedly tortured o/erthe Bush administrations mandate on the war o/er glo"al terrorism& its *I4 detainees today await relocation as the

facility $re$ares to close o$erations o/er the ne6t few months. (eyond the headlines& howe/er&

exists a deep history of unresolved issues associated $ith 6uantanamo

(ay.s U'S' Naval (ase& itself merely the ti$ of a I+ year $olitical ice"erg. The idea ofconceding the base at Guantanamo Bay bac) to Cuba& which the U.S. gained control of in the

-@4V U.S.Cu"a 2act& has& as of late& gained traction in atin !merica and throughout the world' 7t$ould certainly standout as an act of generous good$ill "y the US& and could

$otentially result in a range of reci$rocal $ositi/e actions from Cu"a. 3o$ever& 2resident Obama is very$ell a$are of the many complex issues arising from such a gesture. There arenumerous considerations $hich Cuba $ould need to address and resol/e in return

for the U.S. con/eyance of Guantanamo Bays facilities to Cu"a. Obama recogni4es that Cuba

needs to remedy its current policies on human rights ' >e also reali:es that Cu"a will

need to 5nd a way to ado$t an acce$ta"le /ersion of democracy in order to achie/e this stature if Cu"a is allowed

to reenter the #rgani:ation of !merican States (#!S)& which it acti/ely seeks to do. There also remains

a range of e5ually important issues including the release of political



prisoners restitution of outstanding Cuban con/scated property claims by

former Cubans now li/ing in the US restitution of US Corporate interests andproperties con5scated "y Cu"a following the re/olution restitution to the families of Brothers to the Rescue

o/er Cu"as fatal downing of two search $lanes in Fe"ruary of -@@A and a series of other Cuban

governmental misdeeds '



lt Cause , 9mbargo

Aemoving the $hole embargo and lifting all travel restrictionsis necessary , the plan is insu=cient

CCS " (Center for Cu"an Studies& 1he atest =n U.S. and Cu"a Relations & ,*,&htt$'www.cu"au$date.orgcu"au$dateuscu"a--+thelatestinusandcu"arelations)Shortly "efore the #rgani:ation of !merican States "egan its summit on the island of 1rinidad this $ast !$ril& the mediareported that the Obama administration had underta)en a signi/cant

policy shift in regards to relations $ith Cuba . 7t is extremely important &

howe/er& to recogni4e that these changes do not mar) an end to the nearly

/fty year long trade embargo& nor do they signify and end to the travelrestrictions that prevent most U'S' citi4ens from traveling to Cuba legally .?hat this change essentially does is re$eal the most e6treme measures that tightened the em"argo under the administration ofGeorge ?. Bush& which limited the amount of remittances that Cu"ans li/ing in the United States could send to the island& and

restricted family /isits to once e/ery three years. 0hile this change in policy is certainly a

$elcome step in the right direction% the truly necessary change $ould bea move to end the embargo along $ith travel restrictions for all U'S'

citi4ens& and a normali4ation of relations "etween the two countries. 1he world communityJs desirefor an end to the U.S. im$osed trade em"argo has "een manifested in the form of se/eral successi/e United ations resolutions&each of them o/erwhelmingly in fa/or of the U.S. changing its $olicy toward Cu"a. #$inion within the United States has shifted aswell. Recently& a C#$inion Research Cor$. $oll re/ealed that two thirds of U.S. citi:ens fa/or ending the tra/el "an& and that threeEuarters fa/or normali:ed relations "etween Cu"a and the United States. Many mem"ers of Congress ha/e also changed their$ositions. #n March V-& *44@& a "i$artisan grou$ of senators introduced a "ill& which& if $assed& will end the tra/el "an& allowing forall U.S. citi:ens to /isit the island. =ndiana senator Richard ugar& ranking Re$u"lican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee anda s$onsor of the "ill& has stated that the unilateral em"argo on Cu"a has failed to achie/e its stated $ur$ose of "ringingdemocracy to the Cu"an $eo$le.J% U.S. Re$resentati/e Bar"ara ee (California)& who recently met with "oth Ral and Fidel Castrowhile tra/elling to Cu"a with the Congressional Black Caucus& noted that we ha/e to remem"er that e/ery country in atin !merica

has normal relations with Cu"a weJre the country which is isolated. Despite these positive recentdevelopments& howe/er% there is still resistance to changing Cuba policy within theU.S. go/ernment. 1he o$$osition from right wing Cu"an!merican mem"ers of congress is $redicta"le& "ut it is also im$ortant to

remem"er that now Hice 2resident 3oe Biden /oted for the >elmsBurton !ct in -@@A& and that Secretary of State >il lary Clinton hasstated that she im$oses lifting the em"argo. >o$efully recent de/elo$ments will hel$ these ocials to re/erse their $re/ious$ositions.



No $ar , USVChina

No China conHict , no military useliison _ (lac)$ill !F Xdirector of the Belfer Center for Science and

=nternational !7airs and ouglas illon 2rofessor at >ar/ards 3ohn F. ènnedySchool of Go/ernment ! XX>enry !. ìssinger Senior Fellow for U.S. foreign $olicyat the Council on Foreign Relations (Graham and Ro"ert& -*;*4-V& ZBeiDing Still2refers i$lomacy #/er Force&Z htt$'www.cfr.orgchina"eiDingstill$refersdi$lomacyo/erforce$*@;@*)s China has become a leading export mar)et for its neigh"ours& it expects them

to be W more respectful Z& in Mr ees words. =n $u"lic statements& China usually down$lays the

ad/antages its si:e "egets& "ut in a heated moment at a *4-4 regional security meeting& its foreign minister had adi7erent message' ZChina is a "ig country and other countries are small countries and that is Dust a fact.Z Mr eehas a $hrase for this message' Z2lease know your $lace.Z Unlike freemarket democracies& in which go/ernmentsare una"le or unwilling to sEuee:e im$orts of "ananas from the 2hili$$ines or cars from 3a$an& Chinas go/ernment

can use its economic muscle. s tensions mount o/er com$eting claims for contested territories&

should $e expect (eiing to use military force to ad/ance its claimsT From the $ers$ecti/e

of the grand strategist& the ans$er is no L unless it is $ro/oked "y others. ZChina understandsthat its gro$th depends on imports& including energy& and that it needs o$en sea lanes. Theyare determined to avoid the mista)es made by 6ermany and apan&Z Mr ee

says. =n his /iew& it is highly unli)ely that China $ould choose to confront the US

military at this $oint& since it is still at a clear technological and military

disadvantage. 1his means that& in the near term& it $ill be more concerned $ith usingdiplomacy% not force& in foreign $olicy. >enry ìssinger& the western statesman who has s$ent mostEuality time with Chinese leaders in the $ast four decades& o7ers a com$lementary $ers$ecti/e. !s he has written&

their approach to the outside $orld is best understood through the lens of SunT4u& the ancient strategist who focused on the $sychological weaknesses of the ad/ersary. ZChina see)sits obectives&Z Mr ìssinger says& Zby careful study% patience and the accumulation of nuances

L only rarely does China ris) a $inner&ta)e&all sho$do$n.Z =n Mr ees /iew& China is$laying a long game dri/en "y a com$elling /ision. Z=t is Chinas intention&Z Mr ee says& Zto "e the greatest $ower

in the world.Z Success in that Euest $ill re5uire not only sustaining historically unsustaina"le economic

growth rates "ut also exercising greater caution and subtlety than it has sho$nrecently% in order to avoid an accident or blunder that spar)s militaryconHict o/er the Senkakus& $hich $ould serve no one.s interests'

&& Chinese leadership $ill pull bac) Aoss ! (Ro"ert S.& 2rofessor of 2olitical Science L Boston College& 1he ational=nterest& Fall& e6is

1he strategic costs to China of a war with the United States are only $art of thedeterrence eEuation. China also $ossesses /ital economic interests in sta"le

relations with the United States. ?ar would end Chinas Euest for moderni:ation "yse/erely constraining its access to U.S. markets& ca$ital and technology& and "yreEuiring China to $lace its economy on $ermanent wartime footing. 1he resultanteconomic re/ersal would derail Chinas Euest for Zcom$rehensi/e national $owerZand great $ower status. Serious economic insta"ility would also desta"ili:e Chinas$olitical system on account of the resulting unem$loyment in key sectors of theeconomy and the "reakdown of social order. Both would $ro"a"ly im$oseinsurmounta"le challenges to $arty leadershi$. Moreo/er& defeat in a war with theUnited States o/er 1aiwan would im$ose de/astating nationalist humiliation on the



Chinese Communist 2arty. =n all& the sur/i/al of the $arty depends on preventinga Sino&merican $ar'

&& 3istory proves no ris) of China $ar , their cards are all hypeDyer " (Gwynne& 2h.. in ?ar Studies L Uni/ersity of ondon and Board ofGo/ernors L CanadaJs Royal Military College& China Unlikely to 8ngage in MilitaryConfrontation%& 3akarta 2ost& I*@&htt$'www.theDakarta$ost.comnews*44,4V-*chinaunlikelyengagemilitaryconfrontation.html)6iven merica.s monopoly or huge technological lead in key areas like stealth

"om"ers& aircraft carriers& longrange sensors& satellite sur/eillance and e/en infantry "ody armor& 6oss.s$arning is misleading and self&serving' China cannot proect a seriousmilitary force e/en *44 miles (km) from home% $hile merican forces utterly dominateChina.s ocean frontiers % many thousands of miles (kilometers) from the United States. (ut thedrumbeat of warnings a"out Chinas ZZmilitary "uildu$ZZ continues' 3ust the other week U.S. efenseSecretary onald Rumsfeld was worrying again a"out the e6$ansion of the Chinese na/y& which is 5nally "uildingsome am$hi"ious landing shi$s half a century after BeiDings confrontation with the nonCommunist regime on theisland of 1aiwan "egan. !nd Senator Richard ugar& head of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee& warned that ifthe 8uro$ean Union ends its em"argo on arms sales to China& the U.S. would sto$ military technology sales to

8uro$e. =t will come as no sur$rise& therefore& that the maDor U.S. defense re/iew $lanned for this year willconcentrate on the rising ZZthreatZZ from China& or that this year for the 5rst time the Doint U.S.3a$anese defense$olicy statement named China as a ZZsecurity concernZZ& or that the 1aiwan go/ernment urged the ZZmilitaryencirclementZZ of China to $re/ent any ZZforeign ad/enturesZZ "y BeiDing. =t comes as no sur$rise "ut it still makesno sense. Chinas defense "udget this year is *I+.+ "illion yuan' !round US<V4 "illion at the ocial e6change rate.

1here are those in ?ashington who will say that its more like <A4 "illion in $urchasing $ower& "ut then there usedto "e ZZe6$ertsZZ who annually $roduced hugely inated and frightening estimates of the So/iet defense "udget.Such $eo$le will always e6ist' to Dustify a "ig U.S. defense "udget& you need a "ig threat. =ts true that *I+.+ "illionyuan "uys an awful lot of warm "odies in military uniform in the lowwage Chinese economy& "ut it doesnt actually"uy much more in the way of hightech military systems. =ts also true that the Chinese defense "udget has grown"y dou"ledigit increases for the $ast fourteen years' 1his year its u$ "y -*.A $ercent. But that is not signi5cantlyfaster than the Chinese economy as a whole is growing& and its a"out what you ha/e to s$end in order to con/ert

what used to "e a glori5ed $easant militia into a modern military force ' 7t $ould be astonishing ifChina chose NOT to moderni4e its armed forces as the rest of the economymoderni4es& and the end result is not going to "e a military machine that towers a"o/e all others. =f you

$roDect the current growth rates of military s$ending in China and the United States into the future& Chinas defense"udget catches u$ with the United States a"out the same time that its Gross omestic 2roduct does& in the late

*4V4s or the early *4I4s. s to China.s strategic intentions% the record of the pastis reassuring in se/eral res$ects. China has almost never been militarily expansionist beyondthe traditional boundaries of the Middle `ingdom (which do include 1i"et in the /iew of most

Chinese)& and its border clashes with =ndia& the So/iet Union and Hietnam in the 5rst decades of

Communist rule generally ended $ith a voluntary Chinese $ithdra$al from the dis$uted

territories. The same moderation has usually applied in nuclear matters ' The C7 frets that Chinacould have a hundred nuclear missiles targeted on the United States "y *4-,& butthat is actually evidence of China.s great restraint. 1he 5rst Chinese nuclear wea$ons test wasforty years ago& and "y now China could ha/e thousands of nuclear warheads targeted on the U.S. if it wanted. (1he

United States #8S ha/e thousands of nuclear warheads that can strike Chinese targets.) 1he (eiing regime is obsessed $ith economic stability& "ecause it fears that a se/ere downturn would trigger social

and $olitical u$hea/al. The last thing it $ants is a military confrontation $ith itsbiggest trading partner % the United States. 7t $ill go on playing the nationalistcard over Tai$an to curry domestic political favor% but there is no massivemilitary build&up and no plausible threat of impending war in East Asia.

&& USVChina $ar $ill be limited , no escalationAecord ! (r. 3e7rey& 2rofessor of Strategy and =nternational Security L !ir ?arCollege and Senior Research Fellow L Center for =nternational Strategy& 1echnology&



and 2olicy& 1hinking !"out China and ?ar%& !eros$ace 2ower 3ournal& -*A&htt$'www.air$ower.ma6well.af.milairchroniclesa$Da$D4-win4-record.html )!ssuming the a"sence of mindless escalation to a general nuclear e6change& a war"etween China and the United States would "e constrained "y limited militarycapacity and political obectives. For o$eners& neither China nor the UnitedStates is ca$a"le of in/ading and su"Dugating the other& and e/en if the UnitedStates had the a"ility to do so& a/oidance of a land war on the !sian mainland haslong "een an inDunction of !merican strategy. 1he o"Decti/es of a Sino!merican waro/er 1aiwan or freedom of na/igation in the South China Sea would "e limited9Dustas they were in the Sino!merican war in `orea. !nd since the outcome in eithercase would "e decided "y na/al and air forces& with regular ground forces relegatedto a distinctly secondary role& a war o/er 1aiwan or the South China Sea would also"e limited in terms of the ty$e of force em$loyed. 1his was not the case in the`orean ?ar& in which ground com"at dominated. (1o "e sure& the US $osition on theground would ha/e "een untena"le without air dominance.)

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj01/win01/record.html

http://www.airpower.maxwell.af.mil/airchronicles/apj/apj01/win01/record.html



No $ar , USVChina , economics chec)

9conomics places multiple chec)s on conHict3aixia !# (i& ecturer at e$artment of =nternational Relations L 1singhua

Uni/ersity& Foot"all Game Rather 1han Bo6ing Match' ChinaLUS =ntensifying Ri/alryoes not !mount to Cold ?ar&% Chinese 3ournal of =nternational 2olitics& ,(*)&Summer& $. -4,-*+& htt$'cDi$.o6fordDournals.orgcontent,*-4,.full)8conomic glo"ali:ation created a strategic need for su$er5cial friendshi$ "etween China and the United States.?hile scholars disagree o/er e6actly when economic glo"ali:ation "egan& all agree that it s$ed u$ after the endof the Cold ?ar. 1his is "ecause the Council for Mutual 8conomic !ssistance ended after the colla$se of theSo/iet Union& resulting in a glo"al market. Meanwhile& the $ace of informationow increased among states&shrinking the si:e of the glo"e and leading to $o$ulari:ation of the e6$ression glo"al /illageJ. e/els ofinterde$endence ha/e increased along with the growing $ro6imity of international economic relations. 1hat astrategy of com$lete confrontation can no longer e7ecti/ely $rotect national interests is now o"/ious. =t is forthis reason that certain scholars argue that there has "een a Eualitati/e change in the nature of the security

dilemma since end of the Cold ?ar.V, Under the conditions of globali4ation%interdependence bet$een China and the U nited S tates has continued to

gro$% and for the sa)e of economic interests% neither is $illing to

adopt a strategy of all&out confrontation . 8conomic interde$endence& howe/er& will notdi7use the $olitical and security conicts "etween the two states. i7erent interests in di7erent s$heres ha/e

thus created a foundation for su$er5cial friendshi$ "etween the United States and China. 7nvolvementin the globali4ation process has rapidly expanded China.s involvementin international organi4ations in ever&gro$ing /elds&VA $ithin many of$hich China accepts 0est&led international norms.V+ 1he country has thus shiftedfrom o$$osing the international orderJ to reforming the international orderJ to maintaining the international

orderJ.V; 6lobali4ation has changed not only China.s but also UnitedStates@ behavioral principles' The gro$th of Sino,US economicinterdependence has prompted the U nited S tatesJ ado$tion of a two$ronged $olicy

of military and $olitical containment and of economic engagement. =ts aim is to reduce the ris) of

a head&on conHict that could considerably damage United States@

interests. 1hese contradictory strands of US $olicy towards China are an indicator of su$er5cial friendshi$.

Under the conte6t of economic glo"ali:ation& China has also developed economicinterdependence $ith U nited S tates@ allies. This has reduced incentivesto participate in containment of China and also dampened UnitedStates@ resolve to maintain a policy of complete containment . !s a result&

certain scholars argue that enhanced levels of interdependence among China andother nations have diminished the probability of China.s opting to risethrough forceful expansion.V@



No $ar , ChinaVTai$an , relations resilient

Cross&strait relations better than ever , no conHictPaal !# /ice $resident for studies at the Carnegie 8ndowment for =nternational

2eace (ouglas& A-*& Z1aiwan' #utlook for CrossStrait Relations&Zhtt$'carnegieendowment.org*4-*4A-*taiwanoutlookforcrossstraitrelations"kih)0ith the inauguration of Tai$an President 2a KingDeou for his second and 5nal fouryear term in

May& cross&strait relations appear more stable than they have been in more

than sixty years . 1hat does not mean& howe/er& that o"ser/ers should e6$ect further "ig ste$s to im$ro/e relations

"etween 1ai$ei and BeiDing. ?e are entering an era of limited as$irations and restrained e6$ectations. #n the home front& "ycontrast& Ma announced in his inaugural address an am"itious reform $rogram that is already encountering some sti7 resistance. Mare$eated his cam$aign $romise calling for a golden decade% "uilt on 5/e $illars of reform' economic transformation& creatingem$loyment and reali:ing social Dustice& green energy& in/igorating culture& and de/elo$ment of 1aiwanJs most im$ortant resource&

its human talent. =n crossstrait relations& the outlook is only for incremental im$ro/ements. Tai$an expects toexpand its preferential trade arrangements $ith the mainland& esta"lishre$resentati/e oces on the mainland and 1aiwan to manage relations& com$lete an in/estment $rotection agreement& e6$andeducational o$$ortunities in "oth directions& and ad/ance coo$eration against crime. es$ite their limited sco$e& these will "e

$olitically sensiti/e and tricky to im$lement without triggering negati/e reactions.



Aussia DL



No $ar

No Aussia impact6raham J (1homas Graham& senior ad/isor on Russia in the US ational Security Council sta7 *44**44+&*44+& ZRussia in Glo"al !7airs% 1he ialectics of Strength and ?eakness

htt$'eng.glo"ala7airs.runum"ers*4--*@.html)!n astute historian of Russia& Martin Malia& wrote se/eral years ago that Russia has at di7erent times "een demoni:ed or di/ini:ed "y ?estern o$inion less "ecause of her real role in 8uro$e than "ecause of the fears andfrustrations& or ho$es and as$irations& generated within 8uro$ean society "y its own domestic $ro"lems.% Such is

the case today. 1o "e sure& mounting 0estern concerns about Aussia are a conseEuence of

Russian $olicies that a$$ear to undermine ?estern interests& "ut they are also a reHection ofdeclining con/dence in our o$n abilities and the ecacy of our own $olicies. =ronically& this

growing fear and distrust of Russia come at a time $hen Aussia is argua"ly lessthreatening to the ?est& and the United States in $articular& than it has been at any time

since the end of the Second 0orld 0ar. Aussia does not champion atotalitarian ideology intent on our destruction% its military poses no threat

to swee$ across 8uro$e& its economic gro$th depends on constructive commercialrelations $ith 9urope% and its strategic arsenal L while still ca$a"le of annihilating the

United States L is under more reliable control than it has been in the $ast 5fteen yearsand the threat of a strategic stri)e approaches 4ero probability. 2olitical gridlock in key?estern countries& howe/er& $recludes the creati/ity& risktaking& and su"tlety needed to ad/ance our interests onissues o/er which we are at odds with Russia while laying the "asis for more constructi/e longterm relations withRussia.

No impacta/id 8. 3o*man !-V##-*& contri"uting editor to Foreign 2olicy and the authorof 1he ead >and' 1he Untold Story of the Cold ?ar !rms Race and =ts angerousegacy& which won the *4-4 2ulit:er 2ri:e for general non5ction& Z>ey& BigS$ender&Z Foreign 2olicy&www.foreign$olicy.comarticles*4-*-4**heyN"igNs$enderT$agefulles$ite tensions that are u$& the U nited S tates and Russia are no longer enemies thechance of nuclear war or sur$rise attack is nearly :ero . ?e trade in each others eEuitymarkets . Russia has the largest audience of Face"ook users in 8uro$e& and is o$en to theworld in a way the So/iet Union ne/er was.

Cold $ar calculations no longer apply , neither side $ouldconsider $arCart$right et al !# WGen (Ret) 3ames Cartwright& former Hice Chairman of the

3oint Chiefs of Sta7 !m". Richard Burt& former am"assador to Germany and chiefnegotiator of S1!R1 Sen. Chuck >agel !m". 1homas 2ickering& former am"assadorto the U Gen. (Ret.) 3ack Sheehan& former Su$reme !llied Commander !tlantic for!1# and CommanderinChief for the U.S. !tlantic Command G#B! 8R# U.S.

Uc8!R 2#icy c#MMiSSi# R82#R1& htt$'ore$a.orgw$contentu$loads*4-*4,cartwrightre$ort.$dfY 1hese illustrati/e ne6t ste$s are $ossi"le and desira"le for 5/e "asic reasons. First& mutual nuclear

deterrence "ased on the threat of nuclear retaliation to attack is no longer a

cornerstone of the U.S.Russian security relationshi$. Security is mainly a state of mind& not a

$hysical condition& and mutual assured destruction (M!) no longer occu$ies a central$sychological or $olitical s$ace in the U.S.Russian relationshi$. 1o "e sure& there remains a

$hysicaltechnical side of M! in our relations& "ut it is increasingly $eri$heral. uclear $lanning forCold ?arstyle nuclear conict "etween our countries& dri/en largely "y inertia and /ested interests left



o/er from the Cold ?ar& functions on the margins using outdated scenarios that are

im$lausi"le today. 1here is no conceivable situation in the contem$orary world inwhich it would "e in either countryJs national security interest to initiate a nuclear attackagainst the other side. 1heir current stock$iles (roughly ,&444 nuclear wea$ons each in their acti/ede$loyed and reser/e arsenals) /astly e6ceed what is needed to satisfy reasona"le reEuirements of deterrence"etween the two countries as well as /is/is third countries whose nuclear arsenals $ale in com$arisonEuantitati/ely.



No $ar , USVAussia , no escalation

No escalation , disagreements remain limited0eit4 !! (Richard& senior fellow at the >udson =nstitute and a ?orld 2olitics

Re/iew senior editor @*+*4--& Glo"al =nsights' 2utin not a GameChanger for U.S.Russia 1ies&% htt$'www.scri"d.comdocAA,+@,-+Glo"al=nsights2utinnotaGameChangerforUSRussia1ies)Fifth& there will ine/ita"ly "e areas of conict "etween Russia and the United Statesregardless of who is in the `remlin. 2utin and his entourage can ne/er "e ha$$y with ha/ing !1# "e 8uro$es most

$owerful security institution& since Moscow is not a mem"er and cannot "ecome one. Similarly& the Russianswill always o"Dect to !1#s missile defense e7orts since they can neither match them nor Dointhem in any meaningful way. =n the case of =ran& Russian ocials genuinely $ercei/e less of a threat from 1ehranthan do most !mericans& and Russia has more to lose from a cessation of economic ties with =ran as well as from

an =ranian?estern reconciliation. #n the other hand& these conicts can "e managed& since theywill likely remain limited and compartmentali4ed. Russia and the ?est do nothave fundamentally conHicting vital interests of the )ind countries $ouldgo to $ar over. !nd as the Cold ?ar demonstrated& nuclear wea$ons are a great $aci5er

under such conditions. !nother no/el de/elo$ment is that Russia is much more integratedinto the international economy and glo"al society than the So/iet Union was& and2utins $o$ularity de$ends hea/ily on his economic track record . Beyond that& there are

o"Decti/e criteria& such as the smaller si:e of the Russian $o$ulation and economy as wellas the diculty of controlling modern means of social communication & that willconstrain whoe/er is in charge of Russia.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/66579517/Global-Insights-Putin-not-a-Game-Changer-for-U-S-Russia-Ties






No $ar , USVAussia , no nu)es

No nuclear stri)e6raham J (1homas Graham& senior ad/isor on Russia in the US ational Security

Council sta7 *44**44+& *44+& ZRussia in Glo"al !7airs% 1he ialectics of Strengthand ?eakness htt$'eng.glo"ala7airs.runum"ers*4--*@.html)!n astute historian of Russia& Martin Malia& wrote se/eral years ago that Russia has at di7erent times "een demoni:ed or di/ini:ed "y ?estern o$inion less "ecause of her real role in 8uro$e than "ecause of the fears andfrustrations& or ho$es and as$irations& generated within 8uro$ean society "y its own domestic $ro"lems.% Such is

the case today. 1o "e sure& mounting ?estern concerns a"out Russia are a conseEuence of Russian

$olicies that a$$ear to undermine ?estern interests& "ut they are also a reection of decliningcon5dence in our own a"ilities and the ecacy of our own $olicies. =ronically& this growing fear anddistrust of Russia come at a time when Russia is argua"ly less threatening to the ?est& and the

United States in $articular& than it has been at any time since the end of the Second0orld 0ar. Russia does not cham$ion a totalitarian ideology intent on ourdestruction& its military $oses no threat to swee$ across 8uro$e& its economic growthde$ends on constructi/e commercial relations with 8uro$e& and its strategic arsenal

L while still ca$a"le of annihilating the United States L is under more relia"le control than it has"een in the $ast 5fteen years and the threat of a strategic stri)e approaches 4eroprobability. 2olitical gridlock in key ?estern countries& howe/er& $recludes the creati/ity& risktaking& andsu"tlety needed to ad/ance our interests on issues o/er which we are at odds with Russia while laying the "asis formore constructi/e longterm relations with Russia.



No expansion

No Aussia expansionism'Ottens !! Wick #ttens& editor of the transatlantic news and commentary site the

!tlantic Sentinel and contri"uting analyst for the geostrategic consultancy ?ikistrat&1he Myth of RussiaJs Resurgence&% !ugust *4 *4--&htt$'atlanticsentinel.com*4--4;themythofrussiasresurgenceY?ikistrats 1homas Barnett reminds readers of Russian fears of encirclement in his latest ?orld 2olitics Re/iew

column. !fter shrugging o7 its em$ire in !""!& Aussia $as denied a sense ofbelonging&% Barnett notes& $hen 9urope and the United States refused toconsider Aussia@s entry to NTO' 7nstead% merica moved in militarilyfrom the south as $art of its glo"al ?ar on 1error while China $rogressi/ely encroached& in an economic

sense& on RussiaJs near a"road% in Central !sia and the Far 8ast.0 Aussia has been remar)ablyreluctant to counter these infringements. !lthough nearly all former ?arsaw 2act

mem"ers "elong to the 8uro$ean Union now& it has made only halfhearted attempts toregain a semblance of hegemony on its $estern border. #ld 8astern Bloc nationsmay still worry a"out Russian antagonism& es$ecially if Germany& which is so de$endent on Russian gas im$orts&

wonJt truly $rotect them in the 8U (which is why they e6$ect security from the United States in !1#)9theli)elihood of 2osco$ deploying force against Poland% +ithuania or eventhe U)raine is close to 4ero '8 7n other parts of its former empire % too%Aussia is far from belligerent ' lthough vying for inHuence there with near"y

greater $owers& Aussia has refrained from policing Central sia in Soviet styledespite the alluring natural resources that the region $ossesses. ?hen `yrgy:stan asked

for a Russian troo$ $resence last year to Euell $olitical unrest& the `remlin "alked at the reEuest. 7t had nodesire to become entangled in the internal po$er struggles of its formerclient state' 8 Russian cultural and $olitical inuence $er/ades es$ecially in the northernmost of formersocialist re$u"lics in Central !sia "ut Chinese& =ranian and 1urkish attem$ts at fostering sta"le relations in thearea could set the stage for a greater $ower confrontation& one from which Moscow stands nothing to gain.0

Russian go/ernors in the Far 8ast occasionally raise the s$ecter of the yellow menace% and talk of the danger$osed to their under$o$ulated $ro/inces "y unregulated Chinese la"or migrants "ut as mitry Goren"urg

$ointed out here last year& this kind of talk rarely emanates from Moscow and certainly does not a7ect troo$$ositioning.%0 =ndeed& it is stunning ho$ little trouble 2osco$ has fomented <since the demise of the Soviet Union% writes Barnett& all $hile engineeringarguably the greatest military demobili4ation in human history& going frommore than two hundred army di/isions to less than one hundred "rigades.%

Or there@s no escalation'0eit4 !! (Richard& senior fellow at the >udson =nstitute and a ?orld 2olitics Re/iew senioreditor @*+*4--& Glo"al =nsights' 2utin not a GameChanger for U.S.Russia 1ies&% htt$'www.scri"d.comdocAA,+@,-+Glo"al=nsights2utinnotaGameChangerforUSRussia1ies)Fifth& there will ine/ita"ly "e areas of conict "etween Russia and the United States regardless ofwho is in the `remlin. 2utin and his entourage can ne/er "e ha$$y with ha/ing !1# "e 8uro$es most $owerfulsecurity institution& since Moscow is not a mem"er and cannot "ecome one. Similarly& the Russians willalways o"Dect to !1#s missile defense e7orts since they can neither match them nor Doin them in anymeaningful way. =n the case of =ran& Russian ocials genuinely $ercei/e less of a threat from 1ehran than do most!mericans& and Russia has more to lose from a cessation of economic ties with =ran as well as from an =ranian?estern reconciliation. #n the other hand& these conicts can "e managed& since they will likelyremain limited and compartmentali4ed. Russia and the ?est do not havefundamentally conHicting vital interests of the )ind countries $ould go to $arover. !nd as the Cold ?ar demonstrated& nuclear wea$ons are a great $aci5er under suchconditions. !nother no/el de/elo$ment is that Russia is much more integrated into the







dd&Ons



# Obama Credibility

Single instances of action do not change internationalperceptions of the United States'

1ett$eis% (Christo$her L $rofessor of $olitical science at 1ulane& Credi"ility andthe ?ar on 1error& 2olitical Science uarterly& ?inter)Since Hietnam& scholars have been generally unable to identify cases in $hichhigh credibility helped the United States achieve its goals ' The shorttermaftermath of the Cuban 2issile Crisis& for e6am$le& did not include a string of Sovietreversals& or the kind of "enign "andwagoning with the ?est that deterrence theorists would ha/e e6$ected. =nfact& the $ercei/ed re/ersal in Cu"a seemed to harden So/iet resol/e. !s the crisis was drawing to a close& So/ietdi$lomat Hasily ù:netso/ angrily told his counter$art& ZKou !mericans will ne/er "e a"le to do this to us again.ZV+ìssinger commented in his memoirs that Zthe So/iet Union thereu$on launched itself on a determined& systematic&and longterm $rogram of e6$anding all categories of its military $ower .... 1he -@A* Cu"an crisis was thus ahistoric turning $oint"ut not for the reason some !mericans com$lacently su$$osed.ZV; 1he reassertion of thecredi"ility of the United States& which was done at the "rink of nuclear war& had few longlasting "ene5ts. 1he

So/iets seemed to learn the wrong lesson. There is actually scant evidence that otherstates ever learn the right lessons' Cold 0ar history contains little reasonto believe that the credibility of the superpo$ers had very much e*ect ontheir ability to inHuence others. #/er the last decade& a series of maor scholarlystudies have cast further doubt upon the fundamental assumption ofinterdependence across foreign policy actions. 8m$loying methods "orrowed from social$sychology rather than the economics"ased models commonly em$loyed "y deterrence theorists& 3onathan

2ercer argued that threats are far more independent than is commonlybelieved and& therefore& that reputations are not li)ely to be formed on thebasis of individual actions.V@ ?hile $olicymakers may feel that their decisions send messages a"out

their "asic dis$ositions to others& most of the e/idence from social $sychology suggests otherwise. 6roupstend to interpret the actions of their rivals as situational% dependent uponthe constraints of place and time. 1herefore& they are not li)ely to form lasting

impressions of irresolution from single % independent events. Mercer argued that theinterde$endence assum$tion had "een acce$ted on faith& and rarely $ut to a coherent test when it was& it almostine/ita"ly failed.I4

lt Caus , 6uantanamo (ay;atulis% " (Brian& Senior Fellow at the Center for !merican 2rogress& emocracy2romotion in the Middle 8ast and the #"ama !dministration%& ! Century FoundationRe$ort& htt$'tcf.org$u"lications$dfs$"A;-àtulis.$df)ctions spea) louder than $ords. =n addition to changing how it talks a"out democracy and

freedom& the United States must ta)e tangible steps to regain its credibilityin a process that one analyst calls decontamination< from the negativepractices associated $ith the (ush administrationJs a$$roach. -4 To reshape

perceptions in the 2iddle 9ast% the United States9

including not only the

Obama administration& "ut also mem"ers of Congress and re$resentati/es of the Dustice system9should

/nd a solution to the policy 5uestion of thousands of detainees andprisoners under U'S ' military control in 7ra5Z it should also continue its$or) in closing the 6uantanamo detention camp and secret prisonfacilities run "y the C=!& as well as a"andon the $ractice of remanding terror sus$ects to countries with $oor

human rights records. 1he detention of tens of thousands of individuals% many of

$hom are from the 2iddle 9ast % outside a trans$arent international framework for the rule of



law reduces merican credibility on democratic reform and opens it up to

charges of hypocrisy % with critics of U.S. $olicy $ointing out human rights and rule of law a"uses

Dusti5ed in the name of 5ghting the war on terror. !s a matter of /alues and $rinci$les& the United States shouldwork with other countries to de/elo$ a sustaina"le and /ia"le Dustice system that deals with these detainees.More "roadly& the United States should take ste$s to restore ha"eas cor$us and "ring wireta$ sur/eillance e7orts

"ack into the framework of the rule of law in the United States. Sending the signal that the

United States is cleaning up its act on these fronts is a necessary step for

reviving U'S' credibility on democracy promotion in the 2iddle 9ast '

0ithout some $rogress on these measures % anything else that the ne$administration tries to do on democracy promotion$hether it is politicalparty building or civil society support % or any of the other traditional programs in

the U'S' toolbox$ill li)ely yield fe$ results because of the substantial

credibility gap ' 1he new administration needs to send a clear message that the United States intends to$ractice what it $reaches "y adhering to the legal o"ligations it assumed in the =nternational Co/enant on Ci/il and2olitical Rights& the Con/ention against 1orture& and other human rights treaties. Strengthening the legalframework for rule of law will reEuire not only action on the $art of the #"ama administration "ut also

engagement "y leaders in the U.S. Congress. 3o$ the United States reintroduces itself to

the $orldkee$ing its national security $olicy in line with the highest human rights standards9$ill setthe frame$or) for ho$ U'S' actions on the democracy promotion front are

perceived throughout the 2iddle 9ast ' =n addition to taking these ste$s to restore !mericaJsimage and credi"ility in the region& the new administration should look to enhance e6isting $artnershi$s and "uildnew ones. Gi/en /iews a"out the United States in the Middle 8ast& rather than go it alone& ?ashington should seekto de/elo$ Doint e7orts with other countries working to ad/ance democracy in the Middle 8ast& such as mem"ers ofthe 8uro$ean Union and 3a$an& and with multilateral institutions& such as the United ations e/elo$ment 2rogramand the ?orld Bank. 1he United States is not the only outside actor working to ad/ance decent go/ernance anddemocracy in the Middle 8ast& and de/elo$ing more strongly coordinated a$$roaches to ad/ancing democracy inthe region will "e necessary to meet the daunting challenges. imited $artnershi$s and coordination already e6iston some fronts& $articularly "etween some U.S. and 8uro$ean nongo/ernmental organi:ations& "ut e6$anding

these collaborative e*orts $ill help reframe perceptions of U'S' e*orts to

advance democracy in the 2iddle 9ast.

No impact to credibility , allies $on@t abandon us andadversaries can@t exploit it0alt !! (Ste$hen& 2rofessor of =nternational Relations L >ar/ard Uni/ersity& oesthe U.S. still need to reassure its alliesT% Foreign 2olicy& -*,&htt$'walt.foreign$olicy.com$osts*4---*4,usNcredi"ilityNisNnotNourN$ro"lem) perennial preoccupation of U'S' diplomacy has been the perceived needto reassure allies of our reliability. 1hroughout the Cold ?ar& U'S' leaders $orriedthat any loss of credibility might cause dominoes to fall% lead )ey allies toWband$agonW $ith the Soviet Union% or result in some form of ZFinlandi:ation.Z Such concerns

Dusti5ed 5ghting socalled Zcredi"ility warsZ (including Hietnam)& where the main concern was not the direct stakesof the contest "ut rather the need to retain a re$utation for resol/e and ca$a"ility. Similar fears also led the UnitedStates to de$loy thousands of nuclear wea$ons in 8uro$e& as a su$$osed counter to So/iet missiles targeted against

our !1# allies. The possibility that )ey allies $ould abandon us $as almostal$ays exaggerated & but U'S' leaders remain overly sensitive to the

possibility. So Hice 2resident 3oe Biden has "een out on the road this $ast week& telling /arious U.S. allies that

Zthe United States isn.t going any$here.Z (>e wasnt suggesting were stuck in a rut& ofcourse& "ut saying that the imminent withdrawal from =raE doesnt mean a retreat to isolationism or anything like

that.) 1heres nothing really wrong with o7ering u$ this sort of comforting rhetoric& "ut 7.ve never reallyunderstood $hy USS'S' leaders $ere so $orried about the credibility ofour commitments to others. For starters% given our remar)ably securegeopolitical position% $hether U'S' pledges are credible is /rst and



foremost a problem for those $ho are dependent on U'S ' help. 0e should

therefore ta)e our allies occasional hints about realignment or neutrality with some

ske$ticism they have every incentive to try to ma)e us $orry about it& but inmost cases little incentive to actually do it .

cuba oil negative - unt 2014.docx

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