bukit sembawang estates
TRANSCRIPT
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Property Development SINGAPOREMay 24, 2012
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES. INCLUDING ANY REQUIRED RESEARCH CERTIFICATIONS, ARE PROVIDED AT THE END OF THIS REPORT.
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Rewarding shareholdersLower recognitions were offset by a strengthened balance sheet.BukitSemb ended FY12 with a net cash position and rewardedshareholders with higher dividend of 18Scts (FY11: 12Scts), exceedingexpectations. We see higher dividend payouts to be sustained in FY13.
FY12 core profit came in below at89% of our full year and consensus on
lower profit recognitions. Weintroduce FY15 and adjust FY13-14 onrecognition timing. Our RNAV/targetprice (40% discount to RNAV) dipson higher operating costs factored in.Maintain Outperform.
Anchored by Luxus HillsFY12 was down 24% yoy on lowerrecognitions. FY13 earnings willcontinue to be propped up bypre-sales on completion of LuxusHills phase 2 and Verdure later in the
year. Sales at non-landed projectshave tapered down, thoughsubstantially sold with 77%, 66%,80% take-up at Skyline Residences,The Vermont and Paterson Suitesrespectively. Slower non-landed salesare offset by steady monetisation oflanded landbank, with Luxus HillsPhase 5 largely cleared and Phase 6due for launch at higher ASPs. Weunderstand that construction has/willsoon commence at Paterson 2 and St
Thomas Walk sites, but see possibilityof delays in launch timing.
Stronger balance sheet, moredividendsThe companys balance sheetcontinued to strengthen, ending FY12with a S$23m net cash position (3Q11:0.01x net gearing). FY12 dividends of18Scts exceeded expectations at 26%of NPAT (vs. 18% in prior years), and4% yield on current share price. Withlandbank replenishment less likely inthe near term, we anticipate higherdividend payouts to be sustained on
the back of a stronger net-cashposition in 2012/13 following cashcollections from projects.
Compelling valuationsAt 0.9x P/BV, the stock trades belowits 10-year historical average of 2.0xdespite landed landbank booked at>S$1bn below estimated developmentvalue. Its steep 54% discount toRNAV (2008 levels) is unwarrantedwith stronger balance sheet this cycle.
CIMB Analyst
Lee Syn YiT(65) [email protected]
Donald Chua
T(65) [email protected]
Bukit Sembawang Estates 4QFY12 RESULTS NOTEBS SP / BSES.SI
Current S$4.40 SHORT TERM(3 MTH) LONG TERM
Market Cap Avg Daily Turnover Free Float Target S$5.72
US$892.1m US$0.20m 41% Previous Target S$5.80S$1,139m S$0.25m 258.9 m shares Up/downside 30.0%
Share price info
Share price perf. (%) 1M 3M 12M
Relative -1.6 4.3 13.4
Absolute -7.8 -2.0 2.8
Major shareholders % held
Lee-related entities 32.4
Results Comparison
FYE Mar (S$ m)4Q
FY12
4Q
FY11
yoy %
chg
qoq %
chg
4QFY12
cum
4QFY11
cum
yoy %
chg
Prev.
FY12FComments
Revenue 50.92 76.63 (33.56) (57.16) 390.57 515.12 (24.18) 380.14 In l ine.Operating costs (27.57) (63.56) (56.63) (62.86) (233.79) (333.79) (29.96) (199.37) Above. Higher property tax/maintenance costsEBITDA 23.35 13.07 78.61 (47.70) 156.78 181.33 (13.54) 180.77 Below. Higher operating expenses.EBITDA margin (%) 45.86 17.06 40.14 35.20 14.03 47.55
Depn & amort. (0.07) (0.06) 4.84 (2.99) (0.20) (0.23) (12.64) (0.18)EBIT 23.29 13.01 78.96 (47.76) 156.58 181.10 (13.54) 180.59 Below. Higher operating expenses.Interest expense 0.00 (0.56) (100.00) (100.00) (6.75) (4.09) 64.98 (2.60) Above. Hedging reserves transferred to profit and loss.Interest & invt inc 0.87 0.78 11.10 (46.60) 4.64 2.15 116.01 1.58 Above. Mark-to-market gain on i/r swaps.
Associates' contrib 0.00 0.00 NA NA 0.00 0.00 NA 0.00Exceptionals 2.64 13.10 (79.83) (92.84) 52.41 18.04 190.51 0.00 One-off gain on disposal of available-for-sale financial assetsPretax profit 26.80 26.33 1.78 (67.72) 206.89 205.38 0.73 179.58Tax (5.26) 1.14 (560.91) (26.98) (23.98) (28.32) (15.31) (32.32)Tax rate (%) 19.62 (4.33) 11.59 13.79 18.00Minority interests 0.00 0.00 NA NA 0.00 0.00 NA 0.00
Net profit 21.54 27.47 (21.59) (71.59) 182.91 177.06 3.30 147.25 Above. One-off gain from disposal of available-for-sale financial assetsCore net prof it 18.90 14.38 31.46 (51.44) 130.49 159.02 (17.94) 147.25 Slightly below, 89% of full-yearEPS (cts) 8.32 11.24 (25.96) (71.59) 70.64 71.45 (1.13) 57.63Core EPS (cts) 7.30 5.89 23.83 (51.44) 50.40 64.17 (21.46) 57.63
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
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Figure 1: GDV breakdown Figure 2: Historical discount to RNAV
Paterson Suites &
Paterson Two
12%
St. Thomas Walk
11%
The Vermont
7%
Skyline - Fairways
Condo
12%
The Verdure
1%
Landed
57%
-45%
-37%
-16%
-35%
-26%
-39%-38%
-31%-29%
-44%-48% -50%
-58%
-47%-47%
-43%
-50%
-43%-39%
-37% -43%
-54%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
(S$)
-70%
-60%
-50%
-40%
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
Stock price RNAV/share Discount to RNAV (RHS)
SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
Figure 3: Landbank overview
Project Year acquired
Total Saleable
land area/ GFA
(sf) % sold
ASP (sold
units) (S$psf) % unsold
Est ASP (unsold)
(S$psf)
ASP
(blended)
(S$psf) GDV (S$m)
Luxus Hills - Lot 9425C Legacy 1,614,453 27% 1,185 73% 1,400 1,039 1,341
Landed housing - Lot 12949A Legacy 341,064 0% - 100% 1,190 1,190 184
Landed housing - Lot 12949A (2) Legacy 301,213 0% - 100% 1,400 1,400 226
Landed housing - Lot 9934W Legacy 29,009 0% - 100% 1,400 1,400 22Watercove Ville (Landed) Legacy 141,578 0% - 100% 1,400 1,400 133
Paterson suites FY06 199,823 80% 2,850 20% 2,610 2,802 112
Paterson Phase Two FY07 149,803 0% - 100% 2,480 2,480 279
Amalgamated site at St. Thomas Walk FY06-07 302,745 0% - 100% 1,800 1,800 364
The Verdure FY06 101,768 100% 1,400 0% - - 26
The Vermont FY06 203,342 66% 2,300 34% 2,100 2,232 246
Skyline - Fairways Condo FY08 325,122 77% 1,900 23% 1,800 1,877 402
Unsold non-landed GFA (sf): 637,833
Unsold saleable land area (sf): 1,996,339
Total GDV (undiscounted) (S$m): 3,336 SOURCES: CIMB, URA, COMPANY REPORTS
Financial Summary
Mar-11A Mar-12A Mar-13F Mar-14F Mar-15F
Revenue (S$m) 515.1 390.6 713.6 655.6 540.4
Operating EBITDA (S$m) 181.3 143.1 295.4 272.2 199.8
Net Profit (S$m) 177.1 182.9 243.7 226.0 169.1Core EPS (S$) 0.65 0.51 0.94 0.87 0.65
Core EPS Growth 419% (21%) 84% (7%) (25%)
FD Core P/E (x) 6.80 8.62 4.67 5.04 6.74
DPS (S$) 0.12 0.18 0.21 0.16 0.12
Dividend Yield 2.80% 4.15% 4.71% 3.61% 2.70%
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.24 7.70 3.49 3.12 2.31
P/FCFE (x) 10.27 13.13 7.98 8.31 2.50
Net Gearing 24.8% (2.1%) (8.4%) (19.7%) (42.2%)
P/BV (x) 1.15 1.04 0.89 0.78 0.71
Recurring ROE 18.4% 12.7% 20.5% 16.4% 11.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates 3.7% 15.0%
CIMB/consensus EPS (x) 1.03 1.15
3.3
3.8
4.3
4.8
9497
101104107111114117121124
Price Close Relative to FSSTI (RHS)
Source: Bloomberg
200400
600800
1000
May-11 Aug-11 Nov-11 Feb-12
Volth
4.40
5.72
3.50 4.99
Target
52-week share price range
Current
SOURCE: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
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Figure 4: RNAV
CY12
Tenure Sector NLA (sf)/ Stake Exp yield RNAV
Rms/Lots (S$m)
Investment Properties
7th Storey Tong Building FH O 6,865 100% 5.0% 7
Development GDV 2,315
AFS financial assets and others 41
GAV 2,363
Less: Net debt (incl any off b/s debt) 107
RNAV 2,470
Fully-diluted share base, post rights issue and warrants (m) 259
RNAV per share (S$) 9.54
Disc to RNAV
Target Price 40% 5.72 SOURCES: CIMB, COMPANY REPORTS
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Figure 5: Sector Comparison
Price Tgt Px Mkt Cap RNAV Prem./(Disc.) P /BV (x) Div. Yield (%)
(loca l curr) (loca l curr) (US$ m) CY2012 CY2013 CY2012 to RNAV (%) CY2012 CY2012
Bukit Sembawang Estates BS SP Outperform 4.40 5.72 892 5.3 4.9 9.54 -54% 0.92 4.6%
CapitaLand CAPL SP Outperform 2.43 3.61 8,089 29.6 18.0 4.81 -49% 0.69 1.7%CapitaMalls Asia CMA SP Underperform 1.37 1.41 4,156 21.8 21.3 1.88 -27% 0.83 2.2%City Developments CIT SP Underperform 10.00 9.05 7,122 19.4 14.8 11.32 -12% 1.32 1.3%Fraser & Neave FNN SP Neutral 6.47 7.20 7,200 14.8 13.3 8.47 -24% 1.24 2.8%Global Logistic Properties GLP SP Outperform 1.99 2.37 7,145 22.4 19.2 2.37 -16% 0.98 0.8%Ho Bee Investments HOBEE SP Underperform 1.19 1.28 657 8.6 8.1 2.13 -44% 0.50 1.1%Keppel Land KPLD SP Neutral 2.82 3.43 3,293 10.3 10.5 4.58 -38% 0.74 3.2%Overseas Union Enterprise OUE SP Outperform 2.03 2.98 1,447 18.2 14.9 3.98 -49% 0.65 2.7%Singapore Land SL SP Outperform 5.56 6.76 1,796 11.9 9.1 12.28 -55% 0.51 3.6%United Engineers UEM SP Outperform 2.10 2.83 484 9.9 5.0 4.35 -52% 0.50 4.8%UOL Group UOL SP Outperform 4.20 5.47 2,528 10.0 9.9 7.29 -42% 0.61 2.2%Wheelock Properties (S) WP SP Neutral 1.63 1.78 1,528 18.1 13.0 2.54 -36% 0.67 3.7%Wing Tai Holdings WINGT SP Outperform 1.28 1.60 780 6.1 6.0 2.13 -40% 0.48 4.1%Singapore average 16.0 13.4 -35% 0.83 2.1%
Agile Property 3383 HK Neutral 8.33 9.40 3,700 5.4 5.1 19.18 -57% 0.95 4.6%China Overseas Grand Oce 81 HK Outperform 9.23 12.50 1,809 7.9 6.0 13.70 -33% 2.08 1.3%China Overseas Land 688 HK Outperform 15.70 20.50 16,524 8.3 7.4 22.61 -31% 1.55 2.4%China Resources Land 1109 HK Outperform 13.36 18.00 10,026 12.2 10.7 22.53 -41% 1.20 2.2%
Evergrande Real Estate 3333 HK Outperform 3.91 6.30 7,499 4.8 4.0 10.45 -63% 1.21 6.2%Guangzhou R&F 2777 HK Neutral 9.72 8.90 4,034 5.3 5.0 14.91 -35% 1.00 7.5%KWG Property Holding 1813 HK Neutral 4.26 5.00 1,587 4.6 4.1 9.07 -53% 0.67 6.9%Longfor Properties 960 HK Outperform 11.28 15.70 7,489 8.8 7.2 20.92 -46% 1.85 3.4%Poly Hong Kong 119 HK Neutral 3.36 4.80 1,561 5.7 5.0 9.76 -66% 0.46 1.8%Shimao Property 813 HK Outperform 9.91 13.50 4,429 5.8 5.2 20.83 -52% 0.85 5.5%Sino-Ocean Land 3377 HK Neutral 3.10 4.40 2,260 5.5 4.9 8.90 -65% 0.38 4.6%SOHO China 410 HK Neutral 5.31 5.70 3,548 5.6 4.4 9.66 -45% 0.92 6.2%Hong Kong average 7.1 6.1 -58% 1.11 3.8%
Alam Sutera ASRI IJ Outperform 570 780 1,197 10.4 9.7 943 -40% 2.93 2.5%Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ Outperform 1,280 1,600 2,393 19.9 17.0 2,486 -49% 2.86 0.6%Ciputra Development CTRA IJ Outperform 690 850 1,118 20.7 13.7 1,088 -37% 1.90 0.9%Ciputra Property CTRP IJ Outperform 700 870 460 17.5 10.2 1,336 -48% 1.14 1.1%Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ Trading Buy 810 800 1,997 19.3 17.1 1,037 -22% 2.25 1.6%Metropolitan Land MTLA IJ Outperform 435 650 352 17.7 12.3 1,231 -65% 2.23 1.2%Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ Neutral 1,590 1,800 1,168 23.2 21.2 2,619 -39% 3.88 0.8%Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ Outperform 1,020 1,450 513 8.3 6.6 1,896 -46% 3.06 1.8%Indonesia average 16.7 13.8 -39% 2.46 1.2%
Eastern & Oriental EAST MK Trading Buy 1.36 1.77 491 13.5 10.2 2.86 -52% 1.17 3.0%KLCC Property Holdings KLCC MK Underperform 3.25 3.03 965 9.8 9.1 5.05 -36% 0.49 3.7%Mah Sing Group MSGB MK Trading Buy 1.95 2.51 517 7.0 5.7 3.07 -36% 1.32 4.6%SP Setia SPSB MK Trading Buy 3.72 4.30 2,271 17.1 14.3 4.51 -18% 1.86 3.3%UEM Land Holdings ULHB MK Trading Buy 1.92 2.56 2,642 22.3 16.5 2.82 -32% 1.60 0.4%UOA Development UOAD MK Trading Buy 1.48 1.84 563 5.9 5.3 2.78 -47% 0.90 8.1%Malaysia average 13.4 11.1 -31% 1.18 2.7%
Amata Corporation AMATA TB Outperform 14.60 25.44 494 12.8 8.0 21.77 -33% 2.31 2.8%Asian Property AP TB Neutral 6.30 6.48 565 8.9 6.8 7.00 -10% 1.50 4.5%Hemaraj HEMRAJ TB Outperform 2.64 2.72 813 13.8 12.6 2.80 -6% 2.65 3.9%Land And Houses LH TB Outperform 7.00 7.46 2,227 21.5 19.1 6.00 17% 2.37 4.5%LPN Development LPN TB Neutral 16.00 15.70 749 10.6 8.7 7.40 116% 2.84 4.7%Pruksa Real Estate PS TB Outperform 13.10 17.61 919 7.6 6.0 22.80 -43% 1.46 4.0%Quality Houses QH TB Underperform 1.53 1.29 446 22.8 13.0 3.60 -58% 0.94 3.9%Sansiri Public Co SIRI TB Outperform 1.98 2.75 453 6.3 4.6 2.48 -20% 1.26 7.9%Supalai PCL SPALI TB Neutral 15.30 15.44 833 8.1 7.4 9.05 69% 1.96 4.9%
Thailand average 11.4 9.0 -7% 1.86 4.6%
Ayala Land Inc. ALI PM Outperform 18.84 25.70 5,644 29.6 25.5 na na 3.48 1.2%Philippine average 29.6 25.5 na 3.48 1.2%
Average (all) 10.3 8.8 #N/A 1.08 2.9%
CompanyBloomberg
TickerRecom.
Core P/E (x)
SOURCES: CIMB, BLOOMBERG, COMPANY REPORTS
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(a) Bukit Sembawang Estates, CapitaLand, CapitaMalls Asia, City Developments, Eastern & Oriental, Keppel Land, KLCC Property Holdings, Mah Sing Group, Singapore Land, UEMLand Holdings, United Engineers, UOA Development, Wheelock Properties (S), Wing Tai Holdings
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Corporate Governance Report:
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of D irectors Association (IOD) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the policy of the Office of the Securities andExchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative Investment disclosedto the public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based oninside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that date. CIMBS doesnot confirm nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Score Range 90100 8089 7079 Below 70 or No Survey Result
Description Excellent Very Good Good N/A
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Recommendation Framework #1 *
Stock Sector
OUTPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
OVERWEIGHT: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: The stock's total return is expected to be within +/-5% of a relevantbenchmark's total return.
NEUTRAL: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, is expectedto perform in line with the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 12 months.
UNDERWEIGHT:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: The stock's total return is expected to exceed a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.
TRADING BUY: The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to outperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL: The stock's total return is expected to be below a relevantbenchmark's total return by 5% or more over the next 3 months.
TRADING SELL:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, isexpected to underperform the relevant primary market index over the next 3 months.
* This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Singapore Stock Exchange, Bursa Malaysia, Stock Exchange of Thailand and Jakarta Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected
returns to be temporarily outside the prescribed ranges due to extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
CIMB Research Pte Ltd (Co. Reg. No. 198701620M)
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7/22/2019 Bukit Sembawang Estates
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Bukit Sembawang EstatesMay 24, 2012
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Recommendation Framework #2 **
Stock Sector
OUTPERFORM:Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 12
months.
OVERWEIGHT:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has a
high number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better overthe next 12 months.
NEUTRAL: Expected total returns of between -15% and +15% over the next 12months.
NEUTRAL:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has either (i)an equal number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% (or better)or -15% (or worse), or (ii) stocks that are predominantly expected to have total returnsthat will range from +15% to -15%; both over the next 12 months.
UNDERPERFORM:Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 12months.
UNDERWEIGHT:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse overthe next 12 months.
TRADING BUY: Expected positive total returns of 15% or more over the next 3months.
TRADING BUY:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of +15% or better overthe next 3 months.
TRADING SELL:Expected negative total returns of 15% or more over the next 3months.
TRADING SELL:The industry, as defined by the analyst's coverage universe, has ahigh number of stocks that are expected to have total returns of -15% or worse overthe next 3 months.
** This framework only applies to stocks listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China listings on the Singapore Stock Exchange. Occasionally, it is permitted for the total expected returns to be temporarilyoutside the prescribed ranges due t o extreme market volatility or other justifiable company or industry-specific reasons.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2011.
ADVANC- Excellent, AMATA- Very Good, AOT- Excellent, AP- Very Good, BANPU- Excellent , BAY- Excellent , BBL- Excellent, BCP- Excellent, BEC- Very Good, BECL-Very Good, BGH- not available, BH- Very Good, BIGC- Very Good, BTS- Very Good, CCET- Good, CK- Very Good, CPALL- Very Good, CPF- Very Good, CPN- Excellent,DELTA - Very Good, DTAC - Very Good, GLOBAL- not available, GLOW- Very Good, HANA - Very Good, HEMRAJ- Excellent, HMPRO - Very Good, ITD- Good, IVL - VeryGood, KBANK- Excellent, KTB- Excellent, LH- Very Good, LPN- Excellent, MAJOR- Very Good, MCOT- Excellent, MINT- Very Good, PS- Excellent, PSL- Excellent, PTT-Excellent, PTTGC- not available, PTTEP- Excellent, QH- Excellent, RATCH- Excellent, ROBINS- Excellent, SCB- Excellent, SCC- Excellent, SCCC- Very Good, SIRI- VeryGood, SPALI- Very Good, STA- Very Good, STEC- Very Good, TCAP- Very Good, THAI- Very Good, TISCO- Excellent, TMB- Excellent, TOP- Excellent, TRUE- Very Good,TUF- Very Good: