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Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Keempat Tahun 2019
12 Feb 2020
Sidang Akhbar
2
Sidang akhbar akan meliputi
Perkembangan ekonomi global dan serantau
Prestasi ekonomi Malaysia pada suku keempat 2019
Keadaan monetari dan kewangan
Modest growth across most major and regional economies in 4Q19
Advanced Economies
0
2
4
6
US Euro area PR China Philippines Indonesia C. Taipei Korea Singapore
Regional EconomiesGDP, Annual change (%) GDP, Annual change (%)
Source: National authorities, Haver
3
4Q19
Mild recovery in exports
• Signs of recovery in exports
• Domestic demand supported by fiscal and monetary policy stimulus
Subdued domestic demand
• Continued weak investment
• Labour market conditions
supportive of private consumption
• Higher fiscal spending in the US
3Q19 4Q19 3Q19
In 4Q 2019, Malaysia’s growth was driven by stronger private sector
activity
7.08.1
0.3
4.2
1.0 1.3
-14.1
-7.7
-9.8
Annual change (%)
Public
consumption
Private
investment
Public
investment
Net
exports
Private
consumption
Higher emoluments
growth
Improvement in
investment in
structures and
machinery
Smaller contraction
in investment by
public corporations
Faster decline in
exports relative to
imports
Higher spending on
transport, restaurant
and hotel, and
recreational services
4
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
15.9
Private sector expenditure
4Q 2019: 7.4%
3Q 2019: 5.4%
The domestic economy was affected by supply disruptions in the
commodities sector during the quarter
5
Sharp contraction in oil palm
productionNatural gas production
declined
*Natural gas accounts for 48% share of mining
sector
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Oil Palm Production* Natural Gas IPI*
Annual change (%) Annual change (%)
9.48.6
-16.9-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
*Oil palm accounts for 39% share of agriculture
sector
Source: MPOB
Crude oil output remained in
contraction
-2.6
-12.8
-5.0
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
Crude Oil IPI*
Annual change (%)
8.8
3.1
-2.1
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
*Crude Oil account for 43% share of mining
sector
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
The Malaysian economy expanded by 3.6% in the fourth quarter
6
Annual change, %
4.4
3.6
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2Q-17 3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
Real GDP Growth
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Services and manufacturing sectors remained the key drivers of
growth
Lower drag from oil
production
Contraction in oil
palm production
7
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Annual change (%)
MiningManufacturing AgricultureConstructionServices
Lower E&E production
growth and spillover from
disruptions in the
commodities sector
Turnaround of residential
sub-sector
Firm consumer-related
spending
5.9 6.1
3.63.0
-1.5
1.0
-4.3
-2.5
3.7
-5.7
3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
Strong private consumption growth supported by positive labour
market conditions
8
* Private sector wages are derived from the salaries and wages data published in the Monthly Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services Statistics by the Department of
Statistics, Malaysia. They cover 62.9% of total employment.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
7.0
8.1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19 4Q-19
Real Private Consumption Growth
Annual change, %
‘11 – ‘18 avg.: 7.0%
3.8 3.9
2.1 2.2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2Q 17 4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19 4Q 19
Private sector wages
Employment
Employment and Private Sector Wages*
Annual change, %
9
Stronger growth in private investment
0.3
4.2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19 4Q 19
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Annual change, %
Real Private Investment Growth Private Sector: Construction Work Done
Growth driven mainly by improvements in structures
investment…
…in particular, higher capital spending in the civil
engineering and residential segment
-15
-5
5
15
25
Civil Engineering Residential NonResidential
SpecialTrade
2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19
Annual change, %
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Subdued export and import performance in 4Q 2019
10
Continued decline in overall exports
*Gross exports (imports) refers to nominal merchandise exports (imports), which include volume and price effects.
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia
Diversified exports partly offset the impact of weaker
E&E and mineral exports
Annual change, %
Gross Export* Growth
Annual change, %
Gross Import Growth
-1.1-0.4
-1.9
-3.3
-6
-3
0
1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
-2.6
-1.4
-5.8
-4.0
-8
-4
0
1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
-1.1 -0.4
-1.9
-3.3-6
-3
0
3
1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
E&E Non-E&E
Mineral Agriculture
Ppt contr./Annual change, %
Malaysia’s Gross Exports by Product
Malaysia’s Gross Imports by Product
-2.6 -1.4
-5.8-4.0
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
Capital Intermediate
Consumption Others
Overall
Ppt contr./Annual change, %
Overall imports remained in contraction Positive turnaround in intermediate imports and
a smaller contraction in capital imports
11
Current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus
of RM7.6 billion or 2.0% of GNI
Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Current Account Balance (RM billion)
1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Current
Account
Balance
16.4 14.3 11.5 7.6
% of GNI 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.0
Goods 33.8 28.1 30.8 32.8
Services -1.8 -3.4 -1.6 -4.0
Primary
Income-10.1 -5.5 -12.2 -15.7
Secondary
Income-5.5 -4.9 -5.5 -5.5
Larger primary income deficit
• Higher investment income accrued to
foreign firms
Higher services deficit
• Lower travel surplus
Higher goods surplus
• Higher non-E&E exports and crude
palm oil prices
Growth expanded by 4.3% in 2019 supported by resilient private
sector activities despite challenging external environment
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
Real GDP (annual change, %)
12
5.1
4.4
5.7
4.7
4.3
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Factors that influenced growth in 2019
• Resilient private sector spending
• Continued expansion in the services
and manufacturing sectors
• Slower global growth and trade
activities
• Disruptions in commodity-related
sectors
• Contraction in public investment
activity
4.3%
Monetary and Financial Developments
13
Headline inflation declined in 4Q 2019 and is projected to average
higher in 2020
14
1Core inflation is computed by excluding price-volatile and price-administered items. It also excludes the estimated direct impact of consumption tax policy changes.2Others include price-volatile items and other price-administered items
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates
Annual change, % /
Ppt contribution to headline inflation
Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component
1.0
1.4
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q
2017 2018 2019
Core inflation¹ (ppt)Fuel (ppt)Net impact of consumption tax policy changes (ppt)Others² (ppt)Headline inflation (%)Core inflation¹ (%)
Headline inflation to remain modest in
2020
Underlying inflation is expected to
remain stable
Performance of domestic financial markets improved
*YTD as at 10 February 2020
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Movement of Ringgit and Regional Currencies against the US Dollar
Improved investor sentiments amidst optimism in global trade negotiations
15
-0.1
1.3
-0.2
-0.2
-4.4
-1.3
-3.1
-0.3
-2.7
-1.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.6
3.5
3.7
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5
INR
IDR
PHP
CNY
THB
MYR
SGD
TWD
KRW
4Q 2019 YTD 2020*
%
Movement of 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields and Equity Prices of
Regional Markets*
*Regional countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore, South
Korea and Thailand. YTD as at 10 February 2020.
Source: Bloomberg, Bank Negara Malaysia
■Malaysia ♦ Regional average
-3.4
Equity price (%)10Y bond yield (bps)
-29.8
+0.3
-2.9
4Q19YTD
2020
4Q19YTD
2020
Non-resident holdings of government bonds increased with long
term investors remained as majority holders
16
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia and Bloomberg
NR holdings of Malaysian Govt bonds increased to
24.3% as at end-December 2019…
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
0
100
200
Jan
-19
Fe
b-1
9
Ma
r-1
9
Ap
r-19
Ma
y-1
9
Jun
-19
Jul-
19
Au
g-1
9
Se
p-1
9
Oct-
19
Nov-1
9
Dec-1
9
NR holdings of Govt Bond (LHS)
% NR holdings of Govt Bond (RHS)
Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government Bonds as
at end-December 2019.
41.3%
28.2%
18.2%
9.3%
2.0%1.1%
0
20
40
60
80
AssetMgmt.
CentralBanks/…
PensionFunds
Banks InsuranceCompanies
Others
Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds
RM billion % NR Holdings RM billion
…with long term stable investors remained as key
holders of Malaysian government bonds
Higher non-resident inflows resulted in external debt increasing to
62.6% of GDP (3Q 2019: 60.7%)
17
1 Changes in individual debt instruments exclude exchange rate revaluation effects2 Comprise trade credits, IMF allocation of SDRs and other debt liabilities
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia
External debt increased to RM946.3 billion
(3Q 2019: RM916.4 billion)
Maturity and currency compositions provide resilience
against potential shocks
RM billion
Medium- to long-term
58.6%
Ringgit-denominated
debt
32.8%
Foreign currency-
denominated debt
67.2%
Short-term
41.4%
Changes in External Debt1
4Q 2019: +RM29.9 billionMalaysia’s External Debt by Maturity and Currency
-10.2
-1.6
0.1
2.9 3.7
9.1
12.8 13.0
ERval.
effects
Inter-bank
borrowings
Inter-company
loans
Bonds ¬es
Others² Loans NRholdingsof dom.
debtsecurities
NRdeposits
96
4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19
Businesses
119
Households
0.8
1.3
1.1
1.1
-0.3 0.0
1.6
2.4
3Q 2019 4Q 2019
Manufacturing WRRH**
Other sectors Total Loan Growth
Financing continues to facilitate economic activity
18
Improved loan growth in the business segment amid sustained momentum in business loan demand
RM billion
Loan Disbursements*Outstanding Business Loan Growth* Loan Applications***
RM billion
*Loans from the banking system and development financial institutions (DFIs)
**WRRH – wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels
***Loans from the banking system only
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
Annual change, % / Cont. to growth, ppt
83
184
98
215
Households Businesses
Quarterly Average (2014 - 2018)
4Q 2019
21
69
25
71
Housing Loans SMEs
Of which: Of which:
Quarterly average
(2014-2018): RM113 bn
Quarterly average
(2014-2018): RM86 bn
Reduction in policy rate is a pre-emptive measure to sustain growth
amid price stability
19
• Overnight Policy Rate was reduced by 25
basis points at the January MPC meeting
• Going forward, monetary policy
considerations will continue to be guided
by the risks to the outlook for domestic
growth and inflation
Source: Bank Negara Malaysia
%
Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
2.75%
20
RAHSIA
Coronavirus outbreak poses risk to 2020 growth
20
• Growth, particularly in the first quarter of the year, will be affected by the
coronavirus outbreak
• Severity of economic impact depends on how the virus spreads and
evolves as well as countries’ responses to the outbreak
• Coronavirus outbreak would affect Malaysia’s growth through:
‒ Lower foreign tourists and spending on hotels, retail, transport and restaurants
‒ Slower demand and production disruptions in PR China affecting Malaysia’s exports
(manufactured and commodities exports)
• Moratorium and temporary relief on financial commitments
‒ Grace period for affected borrowers in which they do not need to repay their
financial commitments
‒ This would allow affected borrowers to focus their efforts on reviving their
businesses
• Restructure and reschedule (R&R) financing
‒ Restructuring and rescheduling of borrowers’ existing loans/financing to ease
cash-flow situation
• Financial relief for hospital admission via insurance/Takaful
‒ Hospital admission and treatment for nCoV of Insurance/Takaful policyholders will
be covered by life insurance and Takaful operators
The financial industry has announced measures to assist those
affected by the nCoV outbreak
Affected clients should approach their financial service providers early to seek assistance
21
The Malaysian economy is expected to remain supported by private
sector spending and improving global trade activities
22
Growth to be underpinned by:
However, materialisation of downside risks could weigh on growth prospects
Continued private sector spending
Recovery in commodity production & operationalisation of new facilities
Resumption of large infrastructure projects to contribute around 1ppt to growth
Improvement in global trade activities
Re-escalation of trade disputes
Supply disruptions in the commodities sector
Prolonged coronavirus outbreak
• Supportive labour market conditions and gradual improvement in investment activities
• MRT2, Pan Borneo, LRT3, Gemas-JB Double Track, ECRL
• RAPID, PFLNG2
Additional Information
23
Growth in 2019 was adversely affected by supply disruptions
Growth would have been higher without
commodity disruptions …
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and BNM estimates
Real GDP (annual change, %)
… and exports would have recorded a much
smaller contraction
Real Exports (annual change, %)
Add. Info
1
3.6
4.34.3
4.7
4Q 19 2019
Actual growth
Estimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)
24
-3.1
-1.1
-2.1
-0.6
4Q 19 2019
Actual growth
Estimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)
The Malaysian GDP grew by 3.6% in the fourth quarter
25
Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import
duties component
Annual growth of GDP components
Add. Info
2
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share1, %
(2019)
2018 2019
4Q 3Q 4Q
Services 57.7 6.9 5.9 6.1
Manufacturing 22.3 4.7 3.6 3.0
Mining and
Quarrying7.1 -0.7 -4.3 -2.5
Agriculture 7.1 -0.1 3.7 -5.7
Construction 4.7 2.6 -1.5 1.0
Real GDP 100.0 4.7 4.4 3.6
Real GDP
(Annual change, %)
Share, %
(2019)
2018 2019
4Q 3Q 4Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)94.1 5.7 3.5 4.9
Private Sector 75.6 7.8 5.4 7.4
Consumption 58.8 8.4 7.0 8.1
Investment 16.8 5.8 0.3 4.2
Public Sector 18.5 0.0 -4.6 -2.2
Consumption 12.2 4.0 1.0 1.3
Investment 6.3 -5.9 -14.1 -7.7
Net exports of goods
and services7.3 15.5 15.9 -9.8
Exports 64.0 3.1 -1.4 -3.1
Imports 56.7 1.8 -3.3 -2.3
Change in stocks
(RM billion)-1.4 -2.0 -6.8 -2.9
Real GDP 100 4.7 4.4 3.6
Real GDP (q-o-q growth,
seasonally adjusted)- 1.3 0.9 0.6
26
Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding
Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia
Percentage point contribution to GDP growth by components
Add. Info
3
The Malaysian GDP grew by 3.6% in the fourth quarter
Real GDP
(Contribution, ppt)
Share1, %
(2019)
2018 2019
4Q 3Q 4Q
Services 57.7 3.9 3.3 3.5
Manufacturing 22.3 1.0 0.8 0.7
Mining and
Quarrying7.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2
Agriculture 7.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4
Construction 4.7 0.1 -0.1 0.0
Real GDP 100.0 4.7 4.4 3.6
Import duties 1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.0
Real GDP
(Contribution, ppt)
Share, %
(2019)
2018 2019
4Q 3Q 4Q
Domestic demand
(excluding stocks)94.1 5.2 3.3 4.5
Private Sector 75.6 5.2 4.2 5.1
Consumption 58.8 4.5 4.1 4.5
Investment 16.8 0.8 0.1 0.6
Public Sector 18.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.5
Consumption 12.2 0.6 0.1 0.2
Investment 6.3 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7
Net exports of goods
and services7.3 1.0 1.0 -0.7
Exports 64.0 2.1 -0.9 -2.1
Imports 56.7 1.1 -2.0 -1.4
Change in stocks
(RM billion)-1.4 -1.5 0.0 -0.2
Real GDP 100 4.7 4.4 3.6
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