sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku keempat tahun 2019 · prestasi ekonomi suku keempat tahun 2019...

Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Keempat Tahun 2019

12 Feb 2020

Sidang Akhbar

2

Sidang akhbar akan meliputi

Perkembangan ekonomi global dan serantau

Prestasi ekonomi Malaysia pada suku keempat 2019

Keadaan monetari dan kewangan

Modest growth across most major and regional economies in 4Q19

Advanced Economies

0

2

4

6

US Euro area PR China Philippines Indonesia C. Taipei Korea Singapore

Regional EconomiesGDP, Annual change (%) GDP, Annual change (%)

Source: National authorities, Haver

3

4Q19

Mild recovery in exports

• Signs of recovery in exports

• Domestic demand supported by fiscal and monetary policy stimulus

Subdued domestic demand

• Continued weak investment

• Labour market conditions

supportive of private consumption

• Higher fiscal spending in the US

3Q19 4Q19 3Q19

In 4Q 2019, Malaysia’s growth was driven by stronger private sector

activity

7.08.1

0.3

4.2

1.0 1.3

-14.1

-7.7

-9.8

Annual change (%)

Public

consumption

Private

investment

Public

investment

Net

exports

Private

consumption

Higher emoluments

growth

Improvement in

investment in

structures and

machinery

Smaller contraction

in investment by

public corporations

Faster decline in

exports relative to

imports

Higher spending on

transport, restaurant

and hotel, and

recreational services

4

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

15.9

Private sector expenditure

4Q 2019: 7.4%

3Q 2019: 5.4%

The domestic economy was affected by supply disruptions in the

commodities sector during the quarter

5

Sharp contraction in oil palm

productionNatural gas production

declined

*Natural gas accounts for 48% share of mining

sector


Oil Palm Production* Natural Gas IPI*

Annual change (%) Annual change (%)

9.48.6

-16.9-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

*Oil palm accounts for 39% share of agriculture

sector

Source: MPOB

Crude oil output remained in

contraction

-2.6

-12.8

-5.0

-14

-12

-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

Crude Oil IPI*

Annual change (%)

8.8

3.1

-2.1

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

*Crude Oil account for 43% share of mining

sector


The Malaysian economy expanded by 3.6% in the fourth quarter

6

Annual change, %

4.4

3.6

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2Q-17 3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18 4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

Real GDP Growth


Services and manufacturing sectors remained the key drivers of

growth

Lower drag from oil

production

Contraction in oil

palm production

7


Annual change (%)

MiningManufacturing AgricultureConstructionServices

Lower E&E production

growth and spillover from

disruptions in the

commodities sector

Turnaround of residential

sub-sector

Firm consumer-related

spending

5.9 6.1

3.63.0

-1.5

1.0

-4.3

-2.5

3.7

-5.7

3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

Strong private consumption growth supported by positive labour

market conditions

8

* Private sector wages are derived from the salaries and wages data published in the Monthly Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services Statistics by the Department of

Statistics, Malaysia. They cover 62.9% of total employment.


7.0

8.1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2Q-17 4Q-17 2Q-18 4Q-18 2Q-19 4Q-19

Real Private Consumption Growth

Annual change, %

‘11 – ‘18 avg.: 7.0%

3.8 3.9

2.1 2.2

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2Q 17 4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19 4Q 19

Private sector wages

Employment

Employment and Private Sector Wages*

Annual change, %

9

Stronger growth in private investment

0.3

4.2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

4Q 17 2Q 18 4Q 18 2Q 19 4Q 19


Annual change, %

Real Private Investment Growth Private Sector: Construction Work Done

Growth driven mainly by improvements in structures

investment…

…in particular, higher capital spending in the civil

engineering and residential segment

-15

-5

5

15

25

Civil Engineering Residential NonResidential

SpecialTrade

2Q 19 3Q 19 4Q 19

Annual change, %


Subdued export and import performance in 4Q 2019

10

Continued decline in overall exports

*Gross exports (imports) refers to nominal merchandise exports (imports), which include volume and price effects.


Diversified exports partly offset the impact of weaker

E&E and mineral exports

Annual change, %

Gross Export* Growth

Annual change, %

Gross Import Growth

-1.1-0.4

-1.9

-3.3

-6

-3

0

1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

-2.6

-1.4

-5.8

-4.0

-8

-4

0

1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

-1.1 -0.4

-1.9

-3.3-6

-3

0

3

1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

E&E Non-E&E

Mineral Agriculture

Ppt contr./Annual change, %

Malaysia’s Gross Exports by Product

Malaysia’s Gross Imports by Product

-2.6 -1.4

-5.8-4.0

-9

-6

-3

0

3

6

1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

Capital Intermediate

Consumption Others

Overall

Ppt contr./Annual change, %

Overall imports remained in contraction Positive turnaround in intermediate imports and

a smaller contraction in capital imports

11

Current account of the balance of payments registered a surplus

of RM7.6 billion or 2.0% of GNI

Sources: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Current Account Balance (RM billion)

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19

Current

Account

Balance

16.4 14.3 11.5 7.6

% of GNI 4.7 3.9 3.1 2.0

Goods 33.8 28.1 30.8 32.8

Services -1.8 -3.4 -1.6 -4.0

Primary

Income-10.1 -5.5 -12.2 -15.7

Secondary

Income-5.5 -4.9 -5.5 -5.5

Larger primary income deficit

• Higher investment income accrued to

foreign firms

Higher services deficit

• Lower travel surplus

Higher goods surplus

• Higher non-E&E exports and crude

palm oil prices

Growth expanded by 4.3% in 2019 supported by resilient private

sector activities despite challenging external environment

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Real GDP (annual change, %)

12

5.1

4.4

5.7

4.7

4.3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Factors that influenced growth in 2019

• Resilient private sector spending

• Continued expansion in the services

and manufacturing sectors

• Slower global growth and trade

activities

• Disruptions in commodity-related

sectors

• Contraction in public investment

activity

4.3%

Monetary and Financial Developments

13

Headline inflation declined in 4Q 2019 and is projected to average

higher in 2020

14

1Core inflation is computed by excluding price-volatile and price-administered items. It also excludes the estimated direct impact of consumption tax policy changes.2Others include price-volatile items and other price-administered items

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to headline inflation

Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component

1.0

1.4

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

2017 2018 2019

Core inflation¹ (ppt)Fuel (ppt)Net impact of consumption tax policy changes (ppt)Others² (ppt)Headline inflation (%)Core inflation¹ (%)

Headline inflation to remain modest in

2020

Underlying inflation is expected to

remain stable

Performance of domestic financial markets improved

*YTD as at 10 February 2020

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

Movement of Ringgit and Regional Currencies against the US Dollar

Improved investor sentiments amidst optimism in global trade negotiations

15

-0.1

1.3

-0.2

-0.2

-4.4

-1.3

-3.1

-0.3

-2.7

-1.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.5

3.7

-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5

INR

IDR

PHP

CNY

THB

MYR

SGD

TWD

KRW

4Q 2019 YTD 2020*

%

Movement of 10-Year Sovereign Bond Yields and Equity Prices of

Regional Markets*

*Regional countries include Indonesia, the Philippines, PR China, Singapore, South

Korea and Thailand. YTD as at 10 February 2020.

Source: Bloomberg, Bank Negara Malaysia

■Malaysia ♦ Regional average

-3.4

Equity price (%)10Y bond yield (bps)

-29.8

+0.3

-2.9

4Q19YTD

2020

4Q19YTD

2020

Non-resident holdings of government bonds increased with long

term investors remained as majority holders

16

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia and Bloomberg

NR holdings of Malaysian Govt bonds increased to

24.3% as at end-December 2019…

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

0

100

200

Jan

-19

Fe

b-1

9

Ma

r-1

9

Ap

r-19

Ma

y-1

9

Jun

-19

Jul-

19

Au

g-1

9

Se

p-1

9

Oct-

19

Nov-1

9

Dec-1

9

NR holdings of Govt Bond (LHS)

% NR holdings of Govt Bond (RHS)

Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government Bonds as

at end-December 2019.

41.3%

28.2%

18.2%

9.3%

2.0%1.1%

0

20

40

60

80

AssetMgmt.

CentralBanks/…

PensionFunds

Banks InsuranceCompanies

Others

Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds

RM billion % NR Holdings RM billion

…with long term stable investors remained as key

holders of Malaysian government bonds

Higher non-resident inflows resulted in external debt increasing to

62.6% of GDP (3Q 2019: 60.7%)

17

1 Changes in individual debt instruments exclude exchange rate revaluation effects2 Comprise trade credits, IMF allocation of SDRs and other debt liabilities

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

External debt increased to RM946.3 billion

(3Q 2019: RM916.4 billion)

Maturity and currency compositions provide resilience

against potential shocks

RM billion

Medium- to long-term

58.6%

Ringgit-denominated

debt

32.8%

Foreign currency-

denominated debt

67.2%

Short-term

41.4%

Changes in External Debt1

4Q 2019: +RM29.9 billionMalaysia’s External Debt by Maturity and Currency

-10.2

-1.6

0.1

2.9 3.7

9.1

12.8 13.0

ERval.

effects

Inter-bank

borrowings

Inter-company

loans

Bonds &notes

Others² Loans NRholdingsof dom.

debtsecurities

NRdeposits

96

4Q-18 1Q-19 2Q-19 3Q-19 4Q-19

Businesses

119

Households

0.8

1.3

1.1

1.1

-0.3 0.0

1.6

2.4

3Q 2019 4Q 2019

Manufacturing WRRH**

Other sectors Total Loan Growth

Financing continues to facilitate economic activity

18

Improved loan growth in the business segment amid sustained momentum in business loan demand

RM billion

Loan Disbursements*Outstanding Business Loan Growth* Loan Applications***

RM billion

*Loans from the banking system and development financial institutions (DFIs)

**WRRH – wholesale and retail trade, restaurants and hotels

***Loans from the banking system only


Annual change, % / Cont. to growth, ppt

83

184

98

215

Households Businesses

Quarterly Average (2014 - 2018)

4Q 2019

21

69

25

71

Housing Loans SMEs

Of which: Of which:

Quarterly average

(2014-2018): RM113 bn

Quarterly average

(2014-2018): RM86 bn

Reduction in policy rate is a pre-emptive measure to sustain growth

amid price stability

19

• Overnight Policy Rate was reduced by 25

basis points at the January MPC meeting

• Going forward, monetary policy

considerations will continue to be guided

by the risks to the outlook for domestic

growth and inflation


%

Overnight Policy Rate (OPR)

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

2.75%

20

RAHSIA

Coronavirus outbreak poses risk to 2020 growth

20

• Growth, particularly in the first quarter of the year, will be affected by the

coronavirus outbreak

• Severity of economic impact depends on how the virus spreads and

evolves as well as countries’ responses to the outbreak

• Coronavirus outbreak would affect Malaysia’s growth through:

‒ Lower foreign tourists and spending on hotels, retail, transport and restaurants

‒ Slower demand and production disruptions in PR China affecting Malaysia’s exports

(manufactured and commodities exports)

• Moratorium and temporary relief on financial commitments

‒ Grace period for affected borrowers in which they do not need to repay their

financial commitments

‒ This would allow affected borrowers to focus their efforts on reviving their

businesses

• Restructure and reschedule (R&R) financing

‒ Restructuring and rescheduling of borrowers’ existing loans/financing to ease

cash-flow situation

• Financial relief for hospital admission via insurance/Takaful

‒ Hospital admission and treatment for nCoV of Insurance/Takaful policyholders will

be covered by life insurance and Takaful operators

The financial industry has announced measures to assist those

affected by the nCoV outbreak

Affected clients should approach their financial service providers early to seek assistance

21

The Malaysian economy is expected to remain supported by private

sector spending and improving global trade activities

22

Growth to be underpinned by:

However, materialisation of downside risks could weigh on growth prospects

Continued private sector spending

Recovery in commodity production & operationalisation of new facilities

Resumption of large infrastructure projects to contribute around 1ppt to growth

Improvement in global trade activities

Re-escalation of trade disputes

Supply disruptions in the commodities sector

Prolonged coronavirus outbreak

• Supportive labour market conditions and gradual improvement in investment activities

• MRT2, Pan Borneo, LRT3, Gemas-JB Double Track, ECRL

• RAPID, PFLNG2

Additional Information

23

Growth in 2019 was adversely affected by supply disruptions

Growth would have been higher without

commodity disruptions …

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and BNM estimates

Real GDP (annual change, %)

… and exports would have recorded a much

smaller contraction

Real Exports (annual change, %)

Add. Info

1

3.6

4.34.3

4.7

4Q 19 2019

Actual growth

Estimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)

24

-3.1

-1.1

-2.1

-0.6

4Q 19 2019

Actual growth

Estimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)

The Malaysian GDP grew by 3.6% in the fourth quarter

25

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import

duties component

Annual growth of GDP components

Add. Info

2

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share1, %

(2019)

2018 2019

4Q 3Q 4Q

Services 57.7 6.9 5.9 6.1

Manufacturing 22.3 4.7 3.6 3.0

Mining and

Quarrying7.1 -0.7 -4.3 -2.5

Agriculture 7.1 -0.1 3.7 -5.7

Construction 4.7 2.6 -1.5 1.0

Real GDP 100.0 4.7 4.4 3.6

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2019)

2018 2019

4Q 3Q 4Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)94.1 5.7 3.5 4.9

Private Sector 75.6 7.8 5.4 7.4

Consumption 58.8 8.4 7.0 8.1

Investment 16.8 5.8 0.3 4.2

Public Sector 18.5 0.0 -4.6 -2.2

Consumption 12.2 4.0 1.0 1.3

Investment 6.3 -5.9 -14.1 -7.7

Net exports of goods

and services7.3 15.5 15.9 -9.8

Exports 64.0 3.1 -1.4 -3.1

Imports 56.7 1.8 -3.3 -2.3

Change in stocks

(RM billion)-1.4 -2.0 -6.8 -2.9

Real GDP 100 4.7 4.4 3.6

Real GDP (q-o-q growth,

seasonally adjusted)- 1.3 0.9 0.6

26

Note: Numbers do not add up due to rounding

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia

Percentage point contribution to GDP growth by components

Add. Info

3

The Malaysian GDP grew by 3.6% in the fourth quarter

Real GDP

(Contribution, ppt)

Share1, %

(2019)

2018 2019

4Q 3Q 4Q

Services 57.7 3.9 3.3 3.5

Manufacturing 22.3 1.0 0.8 0.7

Mining and

Quarrying7.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2

Agriculture 7.1 0.0 0.3 -0.4

Construction 4.7 0.1 -0.1 0.0

Real GDP 100.0 4.7 4.4 3.6

Import duties 1.1 -0.2 0.3 0.0

Real GDP

(Contribution, ppt)

Share, %

(2019)

2018 2019

4Q 3Q 4Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)94.1 5.2 3.3 4.5

Private Sector 75.6 5.2 4.2 5.1

Consumption 58.8 4.5 4.1 4.5

Investment 16.8 0.8 0.1 0.6

Public Sector 18.5 0.0 -0.9 -0.5

Consumption 12.2 0.6 0.1 0.2

Investment 6.3 -0.6 -1.0 -0.7

Net exports of goods

and services7.3 1.0 1.0 -0.7

Exports 64.0 2.1 -0.9 -2.1

Imports 56.7 1.1 -2.0 -1.4

Change in stocks

(RM billion)-1.4 -1.5 0.0 -0.2

Real GDP 100 4.7 4.4 3.6

sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku keempat tahun 2019 · prestasi ekonomi suku keempat tahun 2019...

Documents