sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku ketiga tahun 2018 · sidang akhbar akan meliputi: prestasi...

Prestasi Ekonomi Suku Ketiga Tahun 2018

Gabenor

Bank Negara Malaysia

Ketua Perangkawan Malaysia

Jabatan Perangkaan Malaysia

16 November 2018

Sidang Akhbar

Sidang akhbar akan meliputi:

Prestasi ekonomi pada suku ketiga tahun 2018

Perkembangan monetari dan kewangan

Isu khas dan inisiatif dasar Bank Negara Malaysia

2

High-frequency indicators show a moderating momentum in global

growth and trade activities

Source: Bloomberg, CPB, BNM estimates

Index %, yoy

Global Composite PMI

(Manufacturing and Services)

World Export Volume

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Feb

-17

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

Aug-1

8

Oct-

18

Regional Economies

Advanced Economies

> 50 = expansionary

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jun-1

6

Aug-1

6

Oct-

16

De

c-1

6

Fe

b-1

7

Apr-

17

Jun-1

7

Aug-1

7

Oct-

17

De

c-1

7

Feb

-18

Apr-

18

Jun-1

8

Aug-1

8

Post-GFC avg. = 2.4

3

Many major and regional economies recorded slower GDP growth

in 3Q 2018

Regional Economies

2.9

2.2

1.2

6.7

6.2

5.3

4.54.1

3.3

2.83.0

1.71.5

6.56.1

5.2

4.4

2.62.3

2.0

US Euro area UK PR China Philippines Indonesia Malaysia Singapore C. Taipei Korea

GDP, Annual change (%) GDP, Annual change (%)

2Q18 3Q182Q18 3Q18

Stable domestic demand amid moderating trade activities

• Investment supported by ongoing policy measures in selected economies,

with household spending increasingly weighed by higher oil-driven inflation

• Trade performance weighed by moderating global demand, amid

intensification of trade tensions

Advanced Economies

Source: National authorities, Haver

4

Expansion in domestic demand

• Labour market improvements supported

private consumption

• More moderate investment in the euro area

Malaysia’s GDP growth remained firm in 3Q 2018 despite global

headwinds and one-off supply shocks

Malaysia’s 3Q 2018 growth performance was characterised by:

Higher private

investment (6.9%)

• Increased spending in machinery

and equipment to cater to positive

demand

Lingering effects of

one-off supply

shocks

• Contraction in LNG and palm oil

production and exports

• Supply shocks lowered growth by

0.5 – 0.7 ppt

Robust household

spending (9.0%)

• Zerorisation of GST

• Strong employment & wage growth

• Positive consumer sentiments

5

-2

0

2

4

6

8

3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18

Agriculture Mining Construction

Manufacturing Services GDP Growth

The Malaysian economy expanded by 4.4% in 3Q 2018

On the demand side, growth continued to be

anchored by higher private sector spending

6.25.9 5.4 4.5 4.4

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18

Private consumption Private investment Public consumption

Public investment Change in stocks Net exports

GDP growth

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to GDP1

Annual change, % /

Ppt contribution to GDP

On the supply side, services and manufacturing

sectors remained the key drivers of growth

1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties component

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia

6

6.25.9

5.44.5 4.4

The Malaysian economy grew by 4.7% in the first three quarters, on

track to register a growth of 4.8% for 2018

In the absence of commodity shocks, growth

could have been 0.5 ~ 0.7 ppt higher

*Numbers do not sum up to 100 due to exclusion of import duties

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and BNM estimates

Annual change, %

Real Gross Domestic Product

7

5.4

4.5 4.44.2

5.9 5.0 5.1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1Q 2Q 3Q

2016 2017 2018

Estimated Impact of Commodity-Related ShocksActual GrowthEstimated Growth (excl. Commodity-Related Shocks)

• For the first three quarters of 2018,

82%* of the economy grew by 6.2%

• 17%* of the economy (agriculture,

mining and quarrying) contracted

by 1.3%

Growth in other sectors (82% of the economy)

continued to be firm

Moderation in exports and imports

External Trade

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2017)2017

2018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Gross exports 100 18.8 5.5 8.3 5.2

Domestic

exports1 85 17.7 -1.0 0.2 -0.2

Manufacturing 82 18.6 8.3 10.7 7.4

E&E 37 19.2 11.8 9.8 10.7

Non-E&E 45 18.1 5.6 11.4 4.7

Commodities 17 18.0 -6.1 -3.8 -3.0

Gross imports 100 19.7 -0.7 8.5 6.3

Intermediate 57 20.0 -10.5 -4.7 -1.5

Capital 14 15.3 -13.0 11.7 1.1

Consumption 8 6.1 2.3 -2.8 5.5

Others 21 28.9 37.6 51.6 32.0

Trade balance

(RM bil)- 98.5 33.4 27.1 25.2

Higher E&E exports amid a smaller decline in

commodity exports

Going forward, export growth will remain

supported by:

Recovery of commodity output(e.g. CPO and LNG)

Higher production capacity(especially E&E and primary related manufacturing)

Continued demand from major trade partners(United States, regional economies)

1 Domestic exports is defined as gross exports excluding re-exports. This is a newly published time series data by the Department of Statistics Malaysia.


8

Current account registered a surplus of RM3.8 billion

Current account supported by goods surplus

Current account balance

Current account to remain in surplus

going forward

• Sustained goods surplus

– Continued global demand and

support from commodity exports

• Services and income accounts to

remain in deficit

– Continued reliance on foreign service

providers

– Sizeable income accrued to foreign

investors


1.2 1.1

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

3Q-17 4Q-17 1Q-18 2Q-18 3Q-18

% of GNIRM billion

Goods

Services

Primary Income

Secondary Income

Current Account Balance, % of GNI (RHS)

9

In the first 3 quarters of 2018, Malaysia’s

current account registered a cumulative

surplus of RM22.7 billion (or 2.2% of GNI)

Monetary and Financial Developments

10

Headline inflation declined during the quarter and is expected to be

low in 2018

• Headline inflation declined mainly due to

the impact from the GST zerorisation

• The annual average headline inflation

will be low in 2018

• Going forward, headline inflation is

projected to increase primarily due to

higher projected global oil prices and the

floating of domestic fuel prices

– While the impact of the consumption tax

policy will contribute to higher inflation in

2019, it will lapse towards the end of the

year

– Underlying inflation is expected to

remain contained

*Note: Core inflation, which is a measure of underlying inflation, excludes the estimated direct impact of the GST zerorisation

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia estimates

Contribution to Headline Inflation by Component

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2017 2018

Net impact of consumption tax policy changesOther price-administered itemsFuelPrice-volatile items (e.g. fresh food items)Core inflation (ppt)Headline inflation (%)Core inflation* (%)

%, percentage points

11

Monetary policy remains accommodative and supportive of the

economy

• The Malaysian economy is expected to

remain on a steady growth path

‒ Rising risks to the global growth could

cause headwinds to the domestic

economy

• Headline inflation is expected to increase

in 2019

‒ Underlying inflation, however, will be

contained in the absence of strong

domestic demand pressures

• Domestic financial markets remain

orderly with domestic monetary and

financial conditions supportive of

economic growth

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia

%

Overnight Policy Rate

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MPC maintained the Overnight Policy Rate

at 3.25% since the increase in January 2018

R

12

Financial institutions remained well-capitalised, with sufficient liquidity to support intermediation

Stress tests conducted by the Bank affirmed banks’ and insurers’ resilience to withstand severe

shocks under adverse macroeconomic and financial conditions


RM billion Ratio (%)

139.5

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

3Q

-16

4Q

-16

1Q

-17

2Q

-17

3Q

-17

4Q

-17

1Q

-18

2Q

-18

3Q

-18

Other stock of high-quality liquid assets (HQLA)

Ringgit surplus liquidity placed with BNM (incl. SRR)

Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR, RHS)

LCR min. requirement (RHS)

2018 LCR minimum requirement

Liquidity coverage ratio and available liquid assetsTotal capital ratio

(%)

Capital adequacy

ratio (%)

3Q 20182Q 2018

Insurance/Takaful

Sector

Banking System

Sustained resilience of financial institutions continued to support

domestic financial stability

13

239.3 242.117.5

17.3

Growth of net financing remained supportive of economic activity

Financing to the private sector increased during

the quarter

*Net financing comprises outstanding banking system and DFIs loans; and outstanding corporate bonds


Increase in growth of outstanding loans driven

by loans to both households and businesses

Contribution to Net Financing Growth*

6.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2016 2017 2018

Corporate Bonds

Banking System and DFI Loans

Total Net Financing

ppt, %

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q

2016 2017 2018

Total Businesses Households

yoy, %

Total, 5.1%

Households, 5.5%

Business, 3.6%

Outstanding Banking System and DFIs Loan Growth

by Borrowers

14

The ringgit depreciated against the US dollar in 3Q due mainly to

external factors, in line with regional currencies

*as at 15 November 2018

Source: Department of Statistics Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

%

Performance of Selected Regional Currencies Against USD Portfolio Investments (RM billion; 1Q 2016-3Q 2018)

-11.2

-8.2

-6.1

-5.4

-5.3

-3.8

-3.0

-2.9

-0.6

-5.4

-3.5

-3.8

-1.3

0.8

0.1

-2.5

-0.2

2.5

-15 -10 -5 0 5

INR

IDR

CNY

PHP

KRW

TWD

MYR

SGD

THB

3Q 2018 YTD*

Non-resident portfolio investment registered

more moderate outflows in 3Q18

The ringgit depreciated amid continued strength

of the USD

15

-38.3

0.6

-50.0

-40.0

-30.0

-20.0

-10.0

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

Residents Non-residents Portfolio Investment

RM billion

Ample liquidity condition to support price discovery and lower

transaction costs

Source: Bank Negara Malaysia, Bloomberg

Note: Volatility refers to the difference between USD/MYR interbank intraday highest and lowest rate.

Offshore rate refers to the NDF 1-month rate while onshore rate refers to the spot rate.

16

7.9

10.0 10.2 11.9

9.9 11.2

12.1 12.4

0

4

8

12

16

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Sep-18

228

6279

113137

12292

108

67

0

50

100

150

200

250

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

42

2327

32 30

22 2428

20

0

10

20

30

40

50

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

3.1

0.9

1.41.2

0.9 1.00.7 0.7 0.7

0

1

2

3

4

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Average Intraday Movement of USD/MYR

Average USD/MYR Bid-Ask Spread

Average daily FX turnoverUSD bn Pips

Pips

USD bn

Onshore FX volume remained

healthy

MYR trading range narrowed as

investors await for fresh news

Spillover impact remains limited as

NDF volume subdued

Tightening bid-ask spread

following lower market volatility

Goods conversion remained stable post-

enhancement of FEA policies in Aug 18

Sovereign credit spread remains

elevated on persisting global

uncertainty

USD bn Bps

Average Daily 5-year CDS spreadNet Foreign Exchange Conversion

from Exports (Cumulative)

-0.51.4

3.6

7.3

9.2

11.4

13.6 13.7 13.6

-0.5

3.5

7.5

11.5

15.5

Jan - Nov-16

Dec-16 -Jun-17

Dec-16 -Dec-17

Dec-16 -Jun-18

Dec 16 -Sep 18

151

108

88

6861

67

100 96 98

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

Nov-16

Mar-17

Jun-17

Sep-17

Dec-17

Mar-18

Jun-18

Jul-18

Sep-18

Average Daily USD/MYR NDF volume

40.7%

35.4%

17.3%

4.2%1.3% 0.6% 0.6%

0

20

40

60

80

Asset

Ma

nag

em

ent

Ce

ntr

al

Banks/

Govern

ments

Pensio

nF

un

ds

Banks

Insu

rance

Co

mpa

nie

s

No

min

ees/

Cu

sto

dia

ns

Oth

ers

RM billion

23.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

De

c-1

5

Ma

r-1

6

Ju

n-1

6

Se

p-1

6

De

c-1

6

Ma

r-1

7

Ju

n-1

7

Se

p-1

7

De

c-1

7

Ma

r-1

8

Ju

n-1

8

Se

p-1

8

% NR Holding

RM billion Govt Bond (LHS)% NR of Govt (RHS)

29.8%

Note:

- Malaysian Government Bonds includes Malaysian Government Securities (MGS), Malaysian Government Investment Issues (MGII), and Sukuk Perumahan

Kerajaan (SPK).

- ‘Others’ include individuals, non-financial corporations and unidentified sectors


Distribution of Non-resident Holdings of Government

Bonds as at end-Sep 2018

Non-resident Holdings of Malaysian Government Bonds

Non-resident holdings of Malaysian government bonds declined marginally

following weaker sentiment on emerging markets and Fed rate normalisation

Long-term NR investors remain key holders of the

Malaysian government bonds

Non-resident holdings of Malaysian

Government bonds remained stable

17

External debt remains manageable

Note: Numbers may not add up due to rounding

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Limited rollover risk as more

than half is skewed towards

medium- to long-term tenures

Malaysia’s External Debt by Maturity

in 3Q 2018 End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share

Close to a third is denominated

in ringgit and not subject to

valuation changes

FX debt are mostly subjected

to either prudential safeguards

or flexible terms

18

Medium- to long-term

54%

Short-term

46%

Malaysia’s External Debt by Currency

in 3Q 2018 End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share

Ringgit-denominated debt

31%

Foreign currency-denominated debt

69%

Trade credits

• Backed by export earnings

and self-liquidating

16%

23%

Intercompany loans

• Flexible/concessionary

terms

Interbank borrowings

(31.4%) and non-

resident deposits (6.6%)

• Prudent liquidity

management including

limits on funding and

maturity mismatches

Malaysia’s foreign-currency

denominated external debt in 3Q 2018 % share

38%

15%

8%

Bonds and notes

Others

61%

19

Diversified external debt currency denominations and decentralisation

of reserves accord Malaysia with resilience against ringgit depreciation

1 Includes mainly direct and portfolio investments abroad2 Comprises non-resident holdings of domestic debt securities and placement of deposits in the domestic banking system, as well as holdings of equity securities in the

form of foreign direct and portfolio investments


USD55.9%

MYR30.5%

CNY3.3%

JPY2.0%

Others6.3%

About a third of external debt

denominated in ringgit, lowering

exposure of currency fluctuations

Malaysia’s External Debt by Currency End-3Q 2018: RM947.9 bn; % share

Banks’ and corporations’ external

assets have doubled since 2010,

reflecting decentralisation of reserves

Malaysia’s External AssetsEnd-3Q 2018: RM 1.7 trillion; RM billion

329 427

622

1,272

2010 3Q 2018

Banks' and corporations' external assets

BNM's international reserves

951

1,699

FC external assets far exceed FC

external liabilities, mitigating

impact of ringgit depreciation

97

1,0472

1,6021

764

External assets External liabilities

Ringgit

Foreign currencies

1,6991,811

IIP by Currency RM billion

SGD

2.0%

Foreign

currencies

70%

Reserves remain adequate and are not the only means to meet

external obligations

1.0

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Net International Reserves

Reserves/ST ext debt (RHS)

Reserves-to-ST external debt

coverage at 1.0x adequate to

facilitate international transactions

Net International Reserves

USD billion Times

Interbank borrowings (intragroup)

36%

Interbank borrowings

(non intragroup)

12%

NR deposits

22%

Intercompany loans4%

Trade credits12%

Others5%

Banks account for about 70%

of short-term external debt

Banks have FCY

liquid assets to meet

external obligations

External debt of the

banking sector (71%*)

RM billion

20

Loans

8%

Debt-at-risk1

69

310

152

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Banks'STED

Banks' FCYliquid assets

1 Comprises unstable exposures with unrelated counterparties that is more susceptible to sudden withdrawal shocks

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia

Breakdown of Malaysia’s Short-Term

External Debt by Instrument in 3Q 2018

End-3Q 2018: RM436.1 bn; % share

Steady growth path in 2018 and 2019

Strong consumer spending due to zerorisation

of GST

Strong business and consumer sentiments

Expansion in manufacturing production capacity

Prolonged disruptions in commodity production

Review of mega projects

Commencement of new production facilities

Recovery of commodity output

Continued private sector spending

Slower global trade

Continued reprioritisation of public expenditure

2018

21

2019

Downside risks to growth

▼ Further escalation of trade tensions

▼ Greater financial market volatility

▼ Unanticipated disruption in commodity production

Factors weighing on growth

Factors supporting growth

10.4

3.1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

3616

7 75 5

2 2 1

HK UK CN JP SG DE ID LU KR

ROW

Market

% share of exports

54

23

8 8 5

Services Mfg. Mining Agri. Const.

55.595.7

11.8

17.8

0

10

20

0

50

100

150

1998 2017

Size of Bond MarketCapital Ratio* (RHS)

Malaysia’s macroeconomic fundamentals remain strong

Broad-based sources of growth Favourable labour market

conditions

Diversified export market

and product

Deeper financial markets,

resilient banking system and

strong financial buffers

Continued current account

surplus

% of GNI

Current Account Balance

Malaysia GDP by Economic Sectors (2017)

% share of GDP

% of

nominal

GDP

Size of Bond Market

and Banking Capital Ratio %

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia and Bank Negara Malaysia p preliminary

Conducive investment

destination for foreign investors

FDI Inflows of RM 60bn by Source

Country (2017-3Q 2018)

% share of total FDI inflows

Employment

million

2016 2017

14.1

14.5

Product

% share of exports

E&E

Non-E&E

Commodities

PR ChinaNIEs

G3

ASEAN

22

* Capital ratio in ‘98 refers to the risk-weighted capital ratio; Ratio in 2017 refers to total capital ratio, reported based on Basel III Capital Adequacy Framework adopted since January 2013; Note: HK= Hong Kong,

CN=China, SG= Singapore, UK= United Kingdom, JP=Japan, DE=Germany, ID=Indonesia, KR=South Korea, LU= Luxembourg

Note: NIEs include Hong Kong, Chinese Taipei and Korea

37

45

17

2017

28

29

1311

19

2017

9.6

2016 2017

6.5

Income Growth

%

Escalating Trade Tensions and Potential Spillovers

to Malaysia

23

3.7

2.9

4.0

2.9

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5

6.5

7.5

1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019f

World growth

World trade(RHS)

Escalating trade tensions to weigh down on economic prospects

Further intensification of trade actions could

pose significant risk to the global economy

Source: Staff estimationSource: IMF WEO, staff estimation

Ppt. Impact to Annual Change

(ppt)

% yoy % yoy

This could have negative spillovers to

Malaysia’s growth prospects

Long-Term Global GDP and Trade Growth Malaysia’s GDP Growth

Asian

Financial

Crisis

Aftermath of

Dot-com

Bubble

Global

Financial

Crisis

Potential

impact of

trade actions

24

-0.1

-0.25 -0.45

-0.5

-0.3 to -0.5

-0.9 to -1.1

Announced trade actions Further trade actions

+25% on USD200bn

Blanket tariffs on aluminium,

steel & solar; +25% on USD50bn

+25% on remaining trade

with PR China

Blanket auto tariffs

Baseline Scenario

Additional Information

The Malaysian economy grew by 4.4% in the third quarter

2127

Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2017)2017

2018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Domestic demand

(excluding stocks)92.2 6.5 4.1 5.6 6.9

Private Sector 71.1 7.5 5.2 7.5 8.5

Consumption 53.7 7.0 6.9 8.0 9.0

Investment 17.4 9.3 0.5 6.1 6.9

Public Sector 21.0 3.3 -0.1 -1.4 1.1

Consumption 13.0 5.4 0.4 3.1 5.2

Investment 8.0 0.1 -1.0 -9.8 -5.5

Net exports of

goods

and services

7.7 -1.9 62.4 1.7 -7.5

Exports 72.8 9.4 3.7 2.0 -0.8

Imports 65.1 10.9 -2.0 2.1 0.1

Change in stocks

(RM billion)0.0 1.1 -5.0 2.8 -6.5

GDP (y-o-y) 1001 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.4

GDP (q-o-q growth,

seasonally

adjusted)

- 1.0 1.4 0.3 1.6

Note: 2 Numbers do not add up due to rounding and exclusion of import duties

component


Note: 1 Numbers do not add up due to rounding


Real GDP

(Annual change, %)

Share, %

(2017)2017

2018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Services 54.5 6.2 6.5 6.5 7.2

Manufacturing 23.0 6.0 5.3 4.9 5.0

Mining and

Quarrying8.4 1.0 0.1 -2.2 -4.6

Agriculture 8.2 7.2 2.8 -2.5 -1.4

Construction 4.6 6.7 4.9 4.7 4.6

Real GDP 1002 5.9 5.4 4.5 4.4

5.7 5.7

3

4

5

6

7

8

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17

2Q17

3Q17

4Q17

1Q18

2Q18

3Q18

Private consumption surged to 9.0% supported by continued

income growth, with additional lift from tax holiday

Household spending

improved further in 3Q

Annual change, %

Real Private Consumption Growth

8.0

9.0

5

6

7

8

9

10

3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18


28

Looking ahead, private

consumption growth to moderate

• Households to adjust spending

with the lapse in tax holiday

• Higher inflation to also affect

consumption growth

• However, steady labour

market conditions and some

Government measures will

provide support

Continued private sector

wage growth

Annual change, %

Private Sector* Wage Growth

*Private sector wages is derived from the salaries

and wages data published in the Monthly

Manufacturing Statistics and Quarterly Services

Statistics by the Department of Statistics Malaysia

Higher private investment growth at 6.9% amid continued elevated

capacity utilisation

83.182.8

70

80

90

3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18

6.1

6.9

0

4

8

12

16

3Q-16 1Q-17 3Q-17 1Q-18 3Q-18

Source: Department of Statistics, Malaysia, MIER

Annual change, %

MIER Capacity Utilisation Rate

%

Private investment

trended higher

Capacity utilisation

remained elevated

Real Private Investment Growth

‘11 – ’17 average: 79.3%

29

Going forward, investment

activity to be supported by:

• Implementation of ongoing

multi-year projects

• Capacity expansion in major

sectors

Services expanded by 7.2 per cent

Activity 2017

2018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Services 6.2 6.5 6.5 7.2

Wholesale & Retail Trade 7.1 6.8 7.3 9.5

Information &

Communication8.4 8.3 8.6 8.4

Finance & Insurance 4.6 7.5 4.9 6.3

Real estate & Business

Services7.4 7.4 7.8 7.7

Food & Beverages

and Accommodation7.4 7.7 9.0 9.3

Transportation & Storage 6.2 5.7 6.4 6.7

Other Services 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.6

Annual Growth of Services Sector and by Sub-Sectors

• Wholesale & Retail Trade grew at faster pace led by retail and motor vehicles

• Information & Communication supported by communication and computer services

• Finance & insurance improved further

30

Manufacturing grew by 5.0 per cent

Activity 20172018

1Q 2Q 3Q

MANUFACTURING 6.0 5.3 4.9 5.0

G7: Electrical, Electronic and

Optical Products8.0 6.0 6.2 6.4

G5: Petroleum, Chemical,

Rubber and Plastic Products4.1 5.0 3.8 3.9

G8: Transport Equipment,

Other Manufacturing and

Repair

5.2 3.3 6.5 8.0

G6: Non-Metallic Mineral

Products, Basic Metal and

Fabricated Metal Products

4.6 5.1 5.0 5.0

G4: Wood Products,

Furniture, Paper Products

and Printing

4.6 4.1 4.0 6.1

G1: Vegetable and Animal

Oils & Fats and Food

Processing

10.1 9.1 4.1 2.2

G2: Beverages and Tobacco

Products6.2 1.4 3.8 3.3

G3: Textiles, Wearing

Apparel and Leather

Products

8.0 6.6 4.0 3.0

Annual Growth of Manufacturing Sector and by Sub-Sectors

• Electrical & Electronic products supported the growth

• Petroleum, Chemical, Rubber & Plastic Products was led by refined petroleum and rubber products

• Transport Equipment, Other Manufacturing and Repair backed by Motor vehicles and transport equipments

• Non-Metallic Mineral Products, Basic Metal and Fabricated Metal Products supported by non metallic mineral and basic metal

31

Agriculture recorded negative growth of 1.4 percent

Activity 2017

2018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Agriculture 7.2 2.8 -2.5 -1.4

Oil Palm 16.0 12.5 -6.0 -8.0

Rubber 9.3 -28.5 -20.1 -0.2

Forestry & Logging -15.7 -13.5 -6.0 2.6

Fishing -2.1 -2.9 -0.8 2.1

Livestock 5.3 5.7 7.4 8.2

Other Agriculture 2.1 4.5 5.0 5.9

Annual Growth of Agriculture Sector

• All sub-sectors registered better growth except Oil palm

• Livestock supported by poultry and cattle

• Fishing backed by marine fishing and aquaculture

32

Current account surplus was sustained in 3Q 2018

RM billion 20172018

1Q 2Q 3Q

Current Account 40.3 15.0 3.9 3.8

Goods 116.8 35.7 26.1 26.6

Exports 807.0 202.1 202.4 211.8

Imports 690.2 166.4 176.4 185.2

Services -22.8 -5.8 -6.2 -3.3

Receipts 159.2 38.3 39.0 40.9

Payments 182.0 44.2 45.2 44.3

Primary income -36.4 -10.2 -11.2 -15.0

Receipts 53.5 13.0 13.3 12.2

Payments 89.8 23.2 24.5 27.3

Secondary income -17.3 -4.7 -4.7 -4.5

Receipts 16.7 3.7 3.6 4.1

Payments 34.0 8.4 8.3 8.5


Sustained CA surplus... … supported by a higher goods surplus amid a

larger primary income deficit…

Higher goods surplus

• Higher E&E exports

• Smaller decline in commodity exports

Higher primary income deficit

• Higher profits earned by foreign investors,

particularly in the mining and

manufacturing sectors

33

In the first 3 quarters of 2018, Malaysia’s

current account registered a cumulative

surplus of RM22.7 billion (or 2.2% of GNI)

Higher foreign direct investments (FDI) in 3Q 2018

Note: Figures may not add up due to netting off and rounding

*Non-financial services includes electricity & gas, water supply, wholesale & retail trade, transportation and storage, accommodation, F&B, ICT, Real estate, public

administration, education, human health, arts, entertainment

Sources: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Bank Negara Malaysia, staff calculations

FDI in Malaysia by sectors and country (RM billion),

3Q 2018

• Higher FDI in 3Q 2018 (RM3.9 billion;

2Q 2018: RM2.8 billion)

• FDI reflected mainly continued profitable

operations and higher global crude oil

prices

• Advanced economies including the US,

UK and Japan were the largest sources

of FDI

• Income of FDI firms operating in

Malaysia increased to RM16.3 billion,

the highest since 4Q 2013

FDI flows remain broad-based across sectors

34

Total FDI inflows (3Q 2018):

RM3.9 billion

Non-financial

services

Construction

Manufacturing

Mining

Top 5 FDI

countriesRM billion

US 2.1

UK 1.2

Japan 1.0

Switzerland 1.0

Hong Kong 0.5

Financial services

1.2

1.9

0.10.2

0.5

sidang akhbar prestasi ekonomi suku ketiga tahun 2018 · sidang akhbar akan meliputi: prestasi...

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