Kecemasan “Heat Wave”

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Gelombang Bahang Panas yang Melampau (Heat Wave)

Tsunami tidak akan berlaku di lautan India?

Lapuran NASA - Badai dan ribut solar

• March 22, 2012: A recent flurry of eruptions on the sun did more than spark pretty auroras around the poles. NASA-funded researchers say the solar storms of March 8th through 10th dumped enough energy in Earth’s upper atmosphere to power every residence in New York City for two years.

• “This was the biggest dose of heat we’ve received from a solar storm since 2005,” says Martin Mlynczak of NASA Langley Research Center. “It was a big event, and shows how solar activity can directly affect our planet.”

Badai Solar (flare)

Pancaran Bahang (radiation) yang diterima dari badai matahari (solar flare)

Aktiviti Bintik Solar dan Suhu

Ramalan bilangan bintik matahari (1996 hingga 2020)

Increase in Global Temperatures

Keadaan dan fenomena cuaca angkasalepas dan kesan ke atas Bumi

September 2, 1859, disruption of telegraph service.

One of the best-known examples of space weather events is the collapse of the Hydro-Québec power network on March 13, 1989 due to geomagnetically induced currents (GICs). Caused by a transformer failure, this event led to a general blackout that lasted more than 9 hours and affected over 6 million people. The geomagnetic storm causing this event was itself the result of a CME ejected from the sun on March 9, 1989.

Today, airlines fly over 7,500 polar routes per year. These routes take aircraft to latitudes where satellite communication cannot be used, and flight crews must rely instead on high-frequency (HF) radio to maintain communication with air traffic control, as required by federal regulation. During certain space weather events, solar energetic particles spiral down geomagnetic field lines in the polar regions, where they increase the density of ionized gas, which in turn affects the propagation of radio waves and can result in radio blackouts. These events can last for several days, during which time aircraft must be diverted to latitudes where satellite communications can be used.

No large Solar Energetic Particles events have happened during a manned space mission. However, such a large event happened on August 7, 1972, between the Apollo 16 and Apollo 17 lunar missions. The dose of particles would have hit an astronaut outside of Earth's protective magnetic field, had this event happened during one of these missions, the effects could have been life threatening

Apakah kemungkinan ribut solar berlaku dalam masa terdekat?

• The sun goes through cycles of high and low activity that repeat approximately every 11 years. Solar minimum refers to the several Earth years when the number of sunspots is lowest; solar maximum occurs in the years when sunspots are most numerous. During solar maximum, activity on the sun and the possibility of space weather effects on our terrestrial environment is higher.

• The next solar maximum is expected in the 2013-2014 time frame. No current observations or data show any impending catastrophic solar event. In fact, scientists believe the intensity of the upcoming coming solar maximum will be similar to the previous maximum in 2002.

• We have never been so well prepared for the onset of the next solar cycle. NASA maintains a fleet of Heliophysics spacecraft to monitor the sun, geospace, and the space environment between the sun and the Earth.

June 2003 - France heat wave

Deadly heatwave spreads across Europe killing 70,000. The heatwave killed more than 14,000 people in France from June to August 2003. Most of the casualties were old people.

Kebakaran hutan di Melbourne 2009

Heatwave Melbourne Feb 2009

June 2010 - Russia heat wave

Russia, suffered wild fires and its worst drought for 40 years when the heatwave struck at the start of summer. The country had not experienced such high temperatures for 1000 years. Thousands of people died in the heatwave, including scores who drowned while swimming drunk.

22 July 2011 - USA

Deadly heatwave spreads across central and eastern US. A heatwave that has already killed more than 20 people in the central and eastern US states is expected to worsen and spread in coming days, forecasters have warned.

America – 14 - 22 March 2012

Chicago, Ill., has broken a record high, from March 14 to March 22. Eight of those days saw the mercury climb above 80 degrees F, which is normal for mid-June.

May 23, 2012 - India

Patna reached 44.4 degrees C, or 112 F. In some years, especially severe heat waves have killed hundreds of people. About 1,400 people died in South Asia within three weeks during pre-monsoon heat in 2003, - Reuters.

Landasan Keterapi Bengkok

Scientists Trace Heat Wave To Massive Star At Center Of Solar System

August 8, 2011 | ISSUE 47•32

Gelombang Panas di kawasan Bandar

• "Hot temperatures in combination with high humidity cause human discomfort and may increase morbidity and mortality. A global climate model with an embedded urban model is used to explore the urban-rural contrast in the wet-bulb globe temperature, a heat stress index accounting for temperature and humidity. Wet-bulb globe temperatures are calculated at each model time step to resolve the heat stress diurnal cycle. The model simulates substantially higher heat stress in urban areas compared to neighbouring rural areas. Urban humidity deficit only weakly offsets the enhanced heat stress due to the large night-time urban heat island. The urban-rural contrast in heat stress is most pronounced at night and over mid-latitudes and subtropics. During heatwaves, the urban heat stress amplification is particularly pronounced”.

• Fischer, E. M., K. W. Oleson, and D. M. Lawrence (2012)

Fenomena Pulau Panas(URBAN HEAT ISLANDS)

Gelombang Panas di Malaysia

Berita Hairan Online - 2012 antara tahun terpanas

2012/01/08• La Nina, pemanasan global punca suhu melonjak ke paras tinggi

LONDON: Tahun 2012 diramalkan akan menjadi antara 10 tahun yang paling panas dalam tempoh 160 tahun, sejak 1850, lebih panas berbanding tahun lalu.

• Tahun ini juga dilaporkan bakal menjadi tempoh paling panas kali ke sembilan bagi India sejak 1901. Saintis kaji cuaca meramalkan, suhu pada 2012 adalah 0.48 darjah Celsius lebih panas berbanding purata suhu sepanjang tahun lalu.

• Ketua jabatan ramalan cuaca Britain, Adam Scaife berkata walaupun 2010 direkodkan sebagai tahun ‘hangat’, 2011 menyaksikan fenomena La Nina yang kuat dan secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi keadaan cuaca antarabangsa.

“La Nina kembali semula. Walaupun ia tidak sekuat seperti awal tahun lalu, ia masih memberi pengaruh ke atas suhu pada tahun mendatang. Berikutan itu, kami meramalkan 2012 sebagai tahun yang lebih panas berbanding tahun lalu, tetapi tidak sepanas tahun 2010,” katanya.

Beliau berkata, 2010 dilihat sebagai tahun paling panas di seluruh dunia dengan suhu berada pada paras 0.53 darjah Celsius melebihi paras biasa, disusuli tahun 2005, 1998, 2003, 2002, 2009, 2006, 2007, 2001 dan 2011. Pada 2001 dan 2011, suhu berada pada paras 0.41 darjah Celsius melebihi purata 14 darjah.

Setiausaha Pertubuhan Kaji Cuaca Dunia (WMO), Michel Jarraud berkata pengaliran gas rumah hijau ke atmosfera juga semakin bertambah, di sebalik pelbagai usaha dan kempen di seluruh dunia untuk mengurangkannya. “Keadaan ini menyebabkan peningkatan suhu antara 2 hingga 2.4 darjah Celsius bagi purata suhu dunia. Saintis percaya ini akan menyebabkan perubahan besar kepada keadaan tanah, alam sekitar dan lautan,” katanya.

.– Agensi Bernama

Bernama article – Heat Wave• Heat Wave A Boon For Aircond Suppliers - By Zulkiple Ibrahim RAWANG Jan 30 (Bernama) --

The current hot spell enveloping the Klang Valley has proven to be a bother to many urban dwellers.

"When I switch on the ceiling fan at night, the air that swirls inside my room is hot. When I open my windows, the mosquitoes start to fly in. Air conditioning helps, but the electricity bill will certainly go up".

Those are the words of teacher Abdul Rahim Hameed, who stays in Bandar Country Homes near here.

Many tend to agree with the teacher's words, as the higher usage of air conditioners will mean higher power bills, apart from more outages because of a surge in electrical usage.

Abdul Rahim is not the only person affected by the current heat wave in the Klang Valley. Thousands of others are in a similar predicament, with sleepless nights a common major issue.

Civil servant Zaidah Zainal says she has to rely on air conditioners, as her small child is unable to sleep with the use of a ceiling fan. "My small child will only be able to sleep if I switch on the air conditioning unit," she says.

Bernama article – continued• What is a heat wave?

According to meteorologists, a heat wave is a prolonged period of excessively hot weather, which may be accompanied by high humidity.

According to the print and electronic media, the Meteorological Department reports that the present heat wave and dry weather in many parts of Malaysia are expected to linger at least until September.Recently, the temperature soared to 36.2 degrees Celsius in Subang, while Kuala Lumpur hit 36 degrees Celsius.

So far, the hottest day ever recorded in Malaysia was May 18, 1998. On that day the temperature in Chuping, Perlis, went up to 38.9 degrees and Melaka touched 38 degrees.

According to the department, the maximum temperature recorded in the Klang Valley during the current hot spell is between 35.3 and 37.2 degrees Celsius.

29 May 2012• Meanwhile, Deputy Science, Technology and Innovation

Minister (Mosti) Datuk Fadillah Yusof said no open burning was allowed throughout the state during this time.

• "The heat wave is expected to continue until September and temperatures are expected to soar higher than usual.

• "It is best that open burning is avoided during this time to prevent any untoward incidences."

• The average maximum temperature in Malaysia is 33 degrees Celsius.

• However last month temperatures in the Klang Valley soared to as high as 36.1 degrees Celsius forcing many to take respite at shopping malls and public parks.

Bolehkah “heat wave” diramalkan menggunakan kaedah biasa?.

Ramalan Kajicuaca Asia (Suhu) – 6 Jun 2012

Ramalan Kajicuaca Asia (RH) – 6 Jun 2012

Ramalan Kajicuaca Asia (Angin) – 6 Jun 2012

Ramalan potensi kebakaran - Malaysia

Kaedah Penentuan “Heat Wave”

• Isyarat pertama “heat wave watch” – Suhu harian bertambah beransuran dari 36oC to 38oC

• “Heat health alert” – suhu melebihi 38oC lebih dari 5 hari berturut-turut.