the implications of climatic changes on food and water-borne diseases in malaysia: a case study of...

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POSTER PRESENTATION Open Access The implications of climatic changes on food and water-borne diseases in Malaysia: a case study of Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Melaka Noor Artika Hassan 1* , Jamal Hisham Hashim 1 , Zubaidi Johar 2 , Mohd Syazwan Faisal 2 From 7th Postgraduate Forum on Health Systems and Policies Phitsanulok, Thailand. 24-25 June 2013 Background Climate change has been recognised as the most press- ing environmental problem humans will face in the 21st century. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that the global mean surface temperature has increased 0.74°C between 1905 and 2005, and predicts an increase of 2 to 4.5°C over the next 100 years. In Malaysia, observed surface temperature data for the last four decades estimates an increase of between 2.7 to 4.0°C per century. Climate change is suspected to have adverse human health impacts. This study is an attempt to quan- tify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associated with food and water-borne diseases. Materials and methods Monthly cases of food and water related diseases data (food poisoning, leptospirosis, cholera, hepatitis A, typhoid, and dysentery) between the year 2000 and 2012 will be obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia. Climate data, including monthly average temperature and rainfall, will be obtained from the Malaysian Meteor- ological Department and National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia. Population projections in Malaysia, up to the year 2100 will be adopted from the World Population Prospects (UN, 2010). Climate projections will be forecasted by the Hadley Centre of UK Meteoro- logical Offices RCM known as PRECIS to predict the increase in monthly temperature until 2070-2100 under the A1B scenario. The projection will be downscaled to a 5 km by 5 km grid resolution. A Poisson generalized linear model will be developed to quantify the relation- ship between climatic parameters and the number of reported food and water-borne disease cases. Results Altered weather patterns and changes in precipitation and temperature resulting from climate change are likely to affect the distribution and incidence of food and water-borne diseases in Malaysia. Conclusions Information regarding the impact of climate change on food and waterborne diseases is very limited. Therefore, findings from this study will be beneficial for the policy makers for an adaptive strategy to enhance health systems in Malaysia and to improve on water resources planning and management. Authorsdetails 1 United Nations University-International Institute for Global Health, UKM Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif , Bandar Tun Razak , 56000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. 2 National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM), Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment (NRE), 43300 Seri Kembangan Selangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia. Published: 29 January 2014 doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-S1-P22 Cite this article as: Hassan et al.: The implications of climatic changes on food and water-borne diseases in Malaysia: a case study of Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Melaka. BMC Public Health 2014 14(Suppl 1):P22. * Correspondence: [email protected] 1 United Nations University-International Institute for Global Health, UKM Medical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif , Bandar Tun Razak , 56000 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article Hassan et al. BMC Public Health 2014, 14(Suppl 1):P22 http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/14/S1/P22 © 2014 Hassan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http:// creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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POSTER PRESENTATION Open Access

The implications of climatic changes on food andwater-borne diseases in Malaysia: a case study ofKelantan, Terengganu, Johor and MelakaNoor Artika Hassan1*, Jamal Hisham Hashim1, Zubaidi Johar2, Mohd Syazwan Faisal2

From 7th Postgraduate Forum on Health Systems and PoliciesPhitsanulok, Thailand. 24-25 June 2013

BackgroundClimate change has been recognised as the most press-ing environmental problem humans will face in the21st century. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) estimates that the global mean surface temperaturehas increased 0.74°C between 1905 and 2005, and predictsan increase of 2 to 4.5°C over the next 100 years. InMalaysia, observed surface temperature data for the lastfour decades estimates an increase of between 2.7 to 4.0°Cper century. Climate change is suspected to have adversehuman health impacts. This study is an attempt to quan-tify climate-induced increases in morbidity rates associatedwith food and water-borne diseases.

Materials and methodsMonthly cases of food and water related diseases data(food poisoning, leptospirosis, cholera, hepatitis A,typhoid, and dysentery) between the year 2000 and 2012will be obtained from the Ministry of Health Malaysia.Climate data, including monthly average temperatureand rainfall, will be obtained from the Malaysian Meteor-ological Department and National Hydraulic ResearchInstitute of Malaysia. Population projections in Malaysia,up to the year 2100 will be adopted from the WorldPopulation Prospects (UN, 2010). Climate projectionswill be forecasted by the Hadley Centre of UK Meteoro-logical Office’s RCM known as PRECIS to predict theincrease in monthly temperature until 2070-2100 underthe A1B scenario. The projection will be downscaled to a5 km by 5 km grid resolution. A Poisson generalized

linear model will be developed to quantify the relation-ship between climatic parameters and the number ofreported food and water-borne disease cases.

ResultsAltered weather patterns and changes in precipitationand temperature resulting from climate change are likelyto affect the distribution and incidence of food andwater-borne diseases in Malaysia.

ConclusionsInformation regarding the impact of climate change onfood and waterborne diseases is very limited. Therefore,findings from this study will be beneficial for the policymakers for an adaptive strategy to enhance health systemsin Malaysia and to improve on water resources planningand management.

Authors’ details1United Nations University-International Institute for Global Health, UKMMedical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif , Bandar Tun Razak , 56000 Kuala Lumpur,Malaysia. 2National Hydraulic Research Institute of Malaysia (NAHRIM),Ministry of Natural Resources & Environment (NRE), 43300 Seri KembanganSelangor Darul Ehsan, Malaysia.

Published: 29 January 2014

doi:10.1186/1471-2458-14-S1-P22Cite this article as: Hassan et al.: The implications of climatic changeson food and water-borne diseases in Malaysia: a case study ofKelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Melaka. BMC Public Health 201414(Suppl 1):P22.

* Correspondence: [email protected] Nations University-International Institute for Global Health, UKMMedical Centre, Jalan Yaacob Latif , Bandar Tun Razak , 56000 Kuala Lumpur,MalaysiaFull list of author information is available at the end of the article

Hassan et al. BMC Public Health 2014, 14(Suppl 1):P22http://www.biomedcentral.com/1471-2458/14/S1/P22

© 2014 Hassan et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd. This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative CommonsAttribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction inany medium, provided the original work is properly cited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.