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Jurnal Pengurusan 49(2017) 89 – 102 https://doi.org/10.17576/pengurusan-2017-49-08 Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market (Reaksi Pasaran ke Arah Pengumuman Berkaitan Pengeluaran Sukuk: Keterangan dari Pasaran Malaysia) Muzrifah Mohamed (Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA) Norliza Che Yahya (Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA) Nur Ashikin Ishak (Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA) ABSTRACT Drawing from the significance and implication that investors can use to properly comprehend the trend in market reaction from the new issuance of information, this study aims to investigate the market’s reaction toward the announcement of Islamic bond or sukuk. The Islamic bond market provides not only an avenue for more dynamic capital trades and portfolio diversification but also functions as an engine that accelerates the growth of the Islamic capital market. This study specifically aims to investigate whether the announcements of sukuk issuance that carry any new information can create impact on the market’s reactions. The overall sample time frame for this study is divided into three event windows; before, during and after the financial crisis in order to ascertain any unusual impact on the market’s return during the 2007-2008 financial crises. The stock market return is measured via the FTSE and Bursa Malaysia’s KLCI. In order to offer a more robust finding on the returns, this study re-measured the market return using Bursa Malaysia’s FTSE EMAS Index as it is a better representation of the sample population. The data collected from Bursa Malaysia, Bloomberg and DataStream database will be then analysed using Brown and Warner’s standard event study methodology of Brown and Warner (1985). Based on the 115 sukuk issuances between 2002 and 2013 (a period of 12 years), this study reveals that the effect of the announcement is significantly negative a day before and on the announcement date. On top of that, the result finds that there is a significantly positive reaction 30 days after the announcement of sukuk issuance which indicates that investors take a longer time to absorb the information from the sukuk announcement. The existence of a significantly positive reaction of stock markets during the financial crisis periods could be attributed to the conditions where the Islamic debt issuance might have sent an incredible signal about the financial position of the company, which have helped in solving the financial problem, especially during the economic downturn. However, the EMAS Index shows none of these significant results. The significant findings in this study (i.e., when uses the KLCI) are expecting to contribute clearer evidence and strategies concerning whether the information regarding sukuk can help investors to form a better investment strategy. Keywords: Sukuk; Islamic bond; Islamic finance; market reactions; stock market return ABSTRAK Tujuan utama kajian adalah untuk menyiasat tindak balas pasaran terhadap pengumuman bon Islam atau lebih dikenali sebagai sukuk dengan mengambil kira kepentingan dan implikasi yang boleh digunakan oleh pelabur untuk memahami dengan betul corak dalam tindak balas pasaran daripada terbitan maklumat baru. Pasaran bon Islam bukan sahaja memberi peluang kepada perdagangan modal dan kepelbagaian portfolio yang lebih dinamik tetapi juga berfungsi sebagai enjin yang mempercepat pertumbuhan pasaran modal Islam. Kajian ini secara khusus bertujuan untuk menyiasat sama ada pengumuman terbitan sukuk membawa apa-apa maklumat baru yang boleh memberi impak terhadap tindak balas pasaran. Keseluruhan bingkai masa untuk kajian ini dibahagikan kepada tiga peringkat iatu sebelum, semasa dan selepas krisis kewangan untuk mengkaji samaada terdapat sebarang kesan yang luar biasa ke atas pulangan pasaran semasa krisis kewangan 2007-2008. Pulangan pasaran saham diukur melalui FTSE dan Bursa Malaysia KLCI. Untuk menawarkan penemuan yang lebih mantap, kajian ini mengukur semula pengembalian pasaran menggunakan Indeks FTSE EMAS Bursa Malaysia kerana ia merupakan perwakilan yang lebih baik dari populasi sampel. Data yang dikumpulkan dari pangkalan data Bursa Malaysia, Bloomberg dan DataStream akan dianalisis dengan menggunakan metodologi kajian standard Brown dan Warner (1985). Berdasarkan 115 terbitan sukuk antara tahun 2002 dan 2013 (tempoh 12 tahun), kajian ini mendedahkan bahawa kesan pengumuman itu signifikan negatif sehari sebelum dan pada tarikh pengumuman. Di samping itu, keputusan mendapati terdapat tindak balas positif 30 hari selepas pengumuman penerbitan sukuk yang menunjukkan bahawa pelabur mengambil masa yang lebih lama untuk menyerap maklumat daripada pengumuman sukuk. Kewujudan reaksi positif pasaran saham semasa tempoh krisis kewangan boleh dikaitkan Artkl 8 (49) (Jun 2017).indd 89 27/09/2017 11:39:06

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Page 1: Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk ...journalarticle.ukm.my/11306/1/14048-60324-1-PB.pdf · Indeks FTSE EMAS Bursa Malaysia kerana ia merupakan perwakilan yang lebih

Jurnal Pengurusan 49(2017) 89 – 102https://doi.org/10.17576/pengurusan-2017-49-08

Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market

(Reaksi Pasaran ke Arah Pengumuman Berkaitan Pengeluaran Sukuk: Keterangan dari Pasaran Malaysia)

Muzrifah Mohamed (Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA)

Norliza Che Yahya (Faculty of Business and Management, Universiti Teknologi MARA)

Nur Ashikin Ishak (Faculty of Accountancy, Universiti Teknologi MARA)

ABSTRAcT

Drawing from the significance and implication that investors can use to properly comprehend the trend in market reaction from the new issuance of information, this study aims to investigate the market’s reaction toward the announcement of Islamic bond or sukuk. The Islamic bond market provides not only an avenue for more dynamic capital trades and portfolio diversification but also functions as an engine that accelerates the growth of the Islamic capital market. This study specifically aims to investigate whether the announcements of sukuk issuance that carry any new information can create impact on the market’s reactions. The overall sample time frame for this study is divided into three event windows; before, during and after the financial crisis in order to ascertain any unusual impact on the market’s return during the 2007-2008 financial crises. The stock market return is measured via the FTSE and Bursa Malaysia’s KLcI. In order to offer a more robust finding on the returns, this study re-measured the market return using Bursa Malaysia’s FTSE EMAS Index as it is a better representation of the sample population. The data collected from Bursa Malaysia, Bloomberg and DataStream database will be then analysed using Brown and Warner’s standard event study methodology of Brown and Warner (1985). Based on the 115 sukuk issuances between 2002 and 2013 (a period of 12 years), this study reveals that the effect of the announcement is significantly negative a day before and on the announcement date. On top of that, the result finds that there is a significantly positive reaction 30 days after the announcement of sukuk issuance which indicates that investors take a longer time to absorb the information from the sukuk announcement. The existence of a significantly positive reaction of stock markets during the financial crisis periods could be attributed to the conditions where the Islamic debt issuance might have sent an incredible signal about the financial position of the company, which have helped in solving the financial problem, especially during the economic downturn. However, the EMAS Index shows none of these significant results. The significant findings in this study (i.e., when uses the KLcI) are expecting to contribute clearer evidence and strategies concerning whether the information regarding sukuk can help investors to form a better investment strategy.

Keywords: Sukuk; Islamic bond; Islamic finance; market reactions; stock market return

ABSTRAK

Tujuan utama kajian adalah untuk menyiasat tindak balas pasaran terhadap pengumuman bon Islam atau lebih dikenali sebagai sukuk dengan mengambil kira kepentingan dan implikasi yang boleh digunakan oleh pelabur untuk memahami dengan betul corak dalam tindak balas pasaran daripada terbitan maklumat baru. Pasaran bon Islam bukan sahaja memberi peluang kepada perdagangan modal dan kepelbagaian portfolio yang lebih dinamik tetapi juga berfungsi sebagai enjin yang mempercepat pertumbuhan pasaran modal Islam. Kajian ini secara khusus bertujuan untuk menyiasat sama ada pengumuman terbitan sukuk membawa apa-apa maklumat baru yang boleh memberi impak terhadap tindak balas pasaran. Keseluruhan bingkai masa untuk kajian ini dibahagikan kepada tiga peringkat iatu sebelum, semasa dan selepas krisis kewangan untuk mengkaji samaada terdapat sebarang kesan yang luar biasa ke atas pulangan pasaran semasa krisis kewangan 2007-2008. Pulangan pasaran saham diukur melalui FTSE dan Bursa Malaysia KLcI. Untuk menawarkan penemuan yang lebih mantap, kajian ini mengukur semula pengembalian pasaran menggunakan Indeks FTSE EMAS Bursa Malaysia kerana ia merupakan perwakilan yang lebih baik dari populasi sampel. Data yang dikumpulkan dari pangkalan data Bursa Malaysia, Bloomberg dan DataStream akan dianalisis dengan menggunakan metodologi kajian standard Brown dan Warner (1985). Berdasarkan 115 terbitan sukuk antara tahun 2002 dan 2013 (tempoh 12 tahun), kajian ini mendedahkan bahawa kesan pengumuman itu signifikan negatif sehari sebelum dan pada tarikh pengumuman. Di samping itu, keputusan mendapati terdapat tindak balas positif 30 hari selepas pengumuman penerbitan sukuk yang menunjukkan bahawa pelabur mengambil masa yang lebih lama untuk menyerap maklumat daripada pengumuman sukuk. Kewujudan reaksi positif pasaran saham semasa tempoh krisis kewangan boleh dikaitkan

Artkl 8 (49) (Jun 2017).indd 89 27/09/2017 11:39:06

Page 2: Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk ...journalarticle.ukm.my/11306/1/14048-60324-1-PB.pdf · Indeks FTSE EMAS Bursa Malaysia kerana ia merupakan perwakilan yang lebih

90 Jurnal Pengurusan 49

dengan syarat-syarat di mana terbitan bon Islam mungkin telah menghantar isyarat yang luar biasa mengenai kedudukan kewangan syarikat, yang telah membantu dalam menyelesaikan masalah kewangan terutamanya semasa kemelesetan ekonomi. Walau bagaimanapun, Indeks EMAS tidak menunjukkan sebarang hasil yang signifikan ini. Penemuan penting dalam kajian ini (iaitu ketika menggunakan KLcI) diharapkan dapat menyumbang kepada keperluan bukti dan strategi yang lebih jelas mengenai apakah maklumat mengenai sukuk dapat membantu para pelabur untuk membentuk strategi pelaburan yang lebih baik.

Kata kunci: Sukuk; bon Islam; kewangan Islam; tindak balas pasaran; pulangan pasaran saham

INTRODUCTION

One of the unique features of the Malaysian financial market is the co-existence of Islamic bonds market, better known as the sukuk market, and the conventional bonds. Unlike the more conventional bonds, the Islamic bonds are structured to comply with the Shariah principles that prohibits the charging of riba’ or interest. The history of the sukuk market shows Malaysia as one of the pioneering countries in the Islamic bond products when it kicked off in the global sukuk arena with the issuance of the Shell MDS Sdn. Bhd. in 1990 (Bloomberg Businessweek 2013). The issuance of the Shell MDS Sdn. Bhd. has become a spectator of the unprecedented proliferation for the sukuk issuance especially after the global financial crisis in 2007–2008. The global financial crisis has alerted investors on the significance of other investment alternatives as a means to diversify and minimise the risk of their investment portfolio. To be totally dependent on the equity market might limit the investors’ chance to optimise their portfolio returns particularly during the economic downturn. Sukuk is viewed as one of the best alternatives for the risk of the diversification strategy.

To date, sukuk is reported to be the most active Islamic financial instrument issued in debt market and an important avenue as a fundraising mechanism for companies besides functioning as investment activities for investors. As depicted in Figure 1, even though the

total number of global sukuk issuance experienced a temporary drop in 2008, it regained its momentum in 2009. The consistent growth of its issued size from year to year indicates that the global sukuk market is gradually developing. In other words, the debt market participants (e.g. firms and investors) have began to recognise the significance of sukuk as an alternative investment channel., Despite a decline in the total amount of sukuk issuance in 2008, Malaysia still holds the position as the largest sukuk market in the world during and after the financial crisis (Bank Negara Malaysia and Securities Malaysia 2009).

Concurrent with the development of the sukuk market over the decade (10 years before year 2014), the number of academic research circulating on the debt market is also expanded. Specifically, past researchers are engrossed on measuring the market reaction toward the releasing of “new” information from newly-issued bonds. Regardless of the markets, previous studies are inclined to scrutinise the market reaction toward the information and the newly issued bond during the intense economic phases or periods (i.e. the financial crisis period). The inclination and wide attention given during the period of crisis is probably due to the possibility of immense adverse implication faced by investors if they fail to astutely read and understand how the market behaves or reacts. The naturally, profit-motivated investors are exposed to zero and/or negative returns on their investment if the market behaviour towards the new issuance is not clearly understood. The

FIGURE 1. Global Sukuk issuance, from 2006 to 2014Sources: ISRA, IFIS, Zawya, Bloomberg

Annual Sukuk Issuances

US

D b

ln

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

140

120

100

80

60

40

20

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91Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market

inability to comprehend market reaction and behaviour will cause the investors’ prediction on the market to move against them. Consequently, this oversight reduces the investors’ opportunity to generate a positive and better income. Such outcome contradicts with one of the transformation programs in the National Key Economic Aspiration (NKEA), which aims to produce a high-income nation and citizens.

Drawn from the implication and significance of investors to fully comprehend the trend in market reaction toward the information that comes with the new issuance, this study aims to investigate market reactions in lieu to the announcement of the Islamic bonds or sukuk. The market reaction on the new issuance of sukuk is expected to assist investors in executing a better investment strategy, thus, reduces the probability of losing their investment. Additionally, this study aims to fill in the gap to the extent of the literature as studies on how the Islamic debt issuance and the Malaysian stock market progress together are scarce, despite the claim that Malaysia is the largest sukuk market in the world. The ability of the sukuk market to be an avenue for portfolio diversification and an engine to accelerate growth of the Malaysian Islamic capital market which also directs this study to focus on the trend of the market behaviour toward the announcement of sukuk. In a nutshell, this study aims to examine the market reactions (the Malaysian stock price movement) to the issuance of sukuk.

This study employs data on the sukuk issued in Malaysia from 2001 to 2013 and specifically aims to investigate whether the announcements of the sukuk issuance that carry any new information that could create an impact on the market reactions. The data time frame (2001–2013) is divided into three event windows (i.e. before, during, and after the financial crisis) to ascertain any unusual impact on the market return during the 2007–2008 financial crisis. The stock market returns are measured by the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI. To generate a more robust finding, this study re-measures the market returns using Bursa Malaysia’s FTSE EMAS Index as it is a better representation of the sample population. Unlike the KLCI which is based only on 30 large-cap stocks, the EMAS is composed of 100 large, mid, and small-cap stocks listed on the Malaysian stock market. Hence, it is more applicable to represent the Malaysian stock market portfolio and behaviour. The data collected from Bursa Malaysia, Bloomberg, and DataStream database are analysed using Brown and Warner’s standard event study methodology (1985).

The remaining parts of this paper is organised in the following format. The first section provides an overview of the issue, the research problem, the objectives as well as the significance of the study and its limitations. The second part of the paper presented the review of other previous related literature. Each issue is critically analysed and the latest literature is considered. The data collection, the information concerning the instrument, and theoretical foundation are presented in section three. The results and

data analysis are presented in section four. The discussion of the results, including the implication to the existing literature is also included in this chapter. The fifth section governs the final chapter of the research and provides the overall conclusion, recommendations for future research and limitations.

LITERATURE REVIEW

There is limited empirical evidence on stock market reactions toward the sukuk issuance since the existing studies provided ambiguous results. A study conducted by Ashhari, Chun and Nassir (2009) showed that by employing the Malaysian-listed companies from 2001 to 2006, the investigation made on the impact of sukuk and the conventional bond announcements on shareholders wealth can be conducted. Theoretically, the market transaction of common stock or bond which is in compliance with the shariah should result in the stable aftermarket behaviour (Abdul-Rahim, Yusof, Sapian & Janor 2008).

Sukuk is the Arabic word for a portfolio of fixed-income securities that demonstrate a financial certificate which in economic terms, are akin to conventional bonds. The Securities Commission Malaysia (SC) defines sukuk as ‘a certificate of equal value that evidence an undivided ownership or investment in the assets using Shariah principles and concepts approved by the Shariah Advisory Board (SAC) (Securities Commission Malaysia Guidelines 2011). Unlike conventional bonds, sukuk needs to have an underlying tangible asset transaction either in ownership or in a master lease agreement. It represents the ownership of underlying assets, usufructs (benefits), services, or investment. The most common principles used in sukuk structuring to date are ijarah, mudharabah, musharakah, murabahah, and istisna’a.

Behavioural finance, in a broad context, distinguishes the investor’s reaction into two main reactions, namely under-reaction and over-reaction. Kaestner (2006) argued that both reactions have cognitive bases to the investors’ irrationality. Kaestner’s argument is that an investor shows over-reaction to long-term investments that used to show ‘unexpected earnings in the past,” and the under-reaction occurred as a promise of gaining short-term earnings that received much attention from economists. This scenario specifically applies to the western markets and this study reveals and discusses how the reactions could be applied into the Islamic debt. Past researches that are related to the concept of Islamic debt studies, particularly in the sukuk perspective, is however scarce.

Within a 61-day event window (i.e. 30 days before the announcement day and 30 days after the announcement), this study finds that there is a wealth effect that happened on the announcement of the issuance of Islamic bond during the event period. The study concludes that on average, investors in the Malaysian stock market reacted significantly to the sukuk announcements. A similar result is reported by Ibrahim and Minai (2009), who examined

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92 Jurnal Pengurusan 49

a sample period from 2000 to 2006. The study revealed that the Malaysian stock market reacted significantly and positively during an event window of [−3, 0] and [−3, 3] around the time of the sukuk issuance announcements. The study further examines the determinants of the wealth effect in sukuk offerings and reveals that the market reaction is positively affected by the issuers’ investment opportunity. Meanwhile, the variables of the Security Commission approval or the issuance size or firm size have documented a negative association to the market reaction.

A study conducted by Ameer and Othman (2010) generates a contradicting result with another – study (Ashhari et al. 2009; Ibrahim & Minai 2009), in which the former reported significant negative abnormal returns that surrounds the sukuk announcement. The study also finds that the negative response is asymmetrical to different types of bonds issuance announcement in Malaysia from 2000 to 2007. A negative market reaction towards sukuk and conventional bond announcements among Malaysian firms is later found by Godlewski, Turk-ariss and Weill (2010). The study, which examined 170 issuances (77 of which are sukuk and 93 of them are conventional bonds) from 2002 to 2009 that consists several event windows that comprise (1) the announcement day, (2) the day of the announcement, 1 day before the announcement and 2 days after the announcement is made, and (3) the day of the announcement, 2 days before the announcement and 2 days after the announcement. The study highlighted that there is a negative reaction to the announcement of sukuk during the 5-day event window, probably due to an adverse selection mechanism whereby a sukuk is issued by financially less competent firms.

The information content of sukuk offerings is another significant determinant of the sukuk wealth that is noted in the literature. For instance, Modirzadehbami and Mansourfar (2011) focused on the determination of sukuk announcements that bring an impact on the stock returns

of private firms by examining the information content of the Islamic private debt offerings. By using 45 listed firms on Bursa Malaysia that involved in the Islamic debt issuance from 2005 to 2008, the study calculated the abnormal and cumulative average of abnormal returns (CAARs) as samples. The study revealed that there are significant (negative) abnormal returns that occurred one day before announcement day, indicating market investors’ adverse behaviour towards the Islamic private debt announcement. As for the CAARs, their results presented insignificant negative CAARs, thus, rejecting their hypothesis regarding the positive market reactions to an Islamic bond announcement.

The economic events such as the economic crises are also considered as an important influence in the study of stock reaction. A previous study like Michayluk and Neshauser (2006) and Otchere and Chan (2003) have found that the stock market tends to over-react in times of crisis. There is one study conducted by Modirzadehbami and Mansourfar (2011), in which their major findings indicated that the average abnormal return is significantly negative and lowest on day −1 during the 22-day event window. Their main rationale towards this finding is that the 2007 financial crisis has led to an increase in the investors’ awareness.

Capital structure has been extensively investigated in recent years. The mixture of debt and equity in the companies’ financial structure and whether it will have an impact on the financial performance risk and valuation is the subject of theoretical and empirical studies. The method used to investigate the impact of capital structure is the main focus of the discussion. This study investigates the market reactions toward the Islamic debt announcement. Furthermore, this study also examines whether there is a difference in market reactions during a different period of crisis. The market capitalisation for each issuer is used to control the effect of size differences in the issuance. Figure 2 illustrates the framework of this research.

FIGURE 2. Research framework

Sukuk issuance announcement before, during and after 2007-

2008 financial crises

Sukuk issuance announcement

Size of the firms

Market return of the

investment

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93Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

SAMPLE DESCRIPTION

The data on the sukuk issued obtained from Bursa Malaysia is between January 1, 2001, and December 31, 2013. Following the past studies (e.g. Brown & Warner 1985), this study uses a standard event study methodology to estimate abnormal returns around the event date for the selected sukuk issued. The 2007–2008 crisis periods is selected as the observation period because this period is relevant to the bond and leverage issues. The data on the daily closing stock prices for thirteen years before the announcement date of sukuk for all of the selected issuers according to the Kuala Lumpur KLCI and the Bursa Malaysia EMAS Index are collected from Thomson DataStream.

A final sample of issues is filtered based on the following selection criteria:

1. The issuers (i.e., issuing companies) are listed in Bursa Malaysia.

2. The announcement date of the issuance is identifiable clearly and accurately.

3. The maturity of the issuance must be 1 year or longer. This condition is imposed to avoid contamination of the results that may arise from the signalling implications of a short-term debt.

4. The issuing company’s daily common stock prices during the period of at least two years before announcement should be available and accessible in the DataStream.

.After the screening process, this study has obtained

the final sample of 115 events of sukuk announcement by 32 publicly listed firms from 2001 to 2013. This study has applied the Brown and Warner (1985) standard event study methodology to examine the market reactions toward the Islamic debt announcement. This study also replicates a similar event window used in the study conducted by Ashhari et al. (2009), in which this study considered 61 days before the announcement date (-30 to +30 days around the announcement date and the announcement date itself). The reason for replicating this event window is because the Securities Commission will grant its approval for the Islamic debt (sukuk) proposal issuance within 21 working days as mentioned in the Securities Commission Malaysia Guidelines (2011), hence the 30 days around the announcement date are considered as the perfect event window.

THE MEASUREMENT OF MARKET RETURNS

The average abnormal return (AAR) and cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) are the two variables on return that are used for this event study analysis. The AAR is the average abnormal returns across firms while CAAR is the cumulative average abnormal returns across firms. The abnormal return is defined as the difference between

expected return and actual return on investments. The abnormal return may be either positive or negative. It is calculated using the abnormal return benchmarks, which is a market portfolio basis.

The performance of stock prices of firms on certain days is quantified as follows;

ARit = Rit – Rmt (1)

where;

ARit : Abnormal returns for firm i at time period tRit : Actual returns for firm i at time period tRmt : Returns on market portfolio in period t

After estimating the abnormal returns for each firm, the abnormal return for all of the firms on each day of the event window are aggregated and averaged as (2); where, N is equal to the number of firms in the sample:

11 N

t t itAAR ARN == ∑ (2)

The AARt is cumulated to identify the aggregated AR behaviour. The AARt is the average estimated deviation of the returns of the inspected stock from the normal relationship to the market.

The standard deviation of the AAR of the estimated window is computed to test and analyse whether the ARR is measurably different from zero, using (3):

t-test = CAAR / δ (CAAR) (3)

where;

AARt = Average abnormal return of period t δ = Standard deviation of average abnormal return over the estimation window

To observe the cumulative effects, the cumulative

abnormal returns (CAARt,+t2) are computed by summing up the AARt over the various time periods of interest in respect to the event period (−t1 to +t2) using (4):

2

( 1 2) 1t

t , t tCAAR AAR+− + −= ∑

(4)

The stock price of each issuer will be used to estimate the actual return of each firm during the time period t (Rit). Returns are calculated on a daily basis; 31 days before and after the announcement date. The formula for Rit is:

LnPriceit – LnPriceit-1 (5)

The sukuk price functions as proxy in order to get the returns from the market portfolio in period t (Rmt). For the purpose of this study, the sukuk price is calculated on a monthly basis starting from the month of the announcement was made. Rmt is the outcome of the following formula:

11 N

t t itAAR ARN == ∑

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94 Jurnal Pengurusan 49

LnCIt – LnCIt-1 (6)

The FTSE Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) is based on a capitalisation-weighted index of 30 large-cap stocks while the FTSE EMAS Index is composed of 100 large-cap, mid-cap, and small-cap stocks in the Malaysian stock market (officially named as Bursa Malaysia). Both of these indexes are employed to measure the performance and behaviour of the Malaysian Stock market. The objectives and the usage of both composite indexes are not only to measure the performance of the Malaysian stock market but also to reflect the performance of listed companies that represents the major population as well as relevant sectors in the growth and development of the Malaysian market economy. The returns on KLCI and EMAS are used as a proxy to market returns (Rmt) for period t.

FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS

DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS

Table 1 provides details of the statistical methods used in this study. The mean value for AAR is 0.0012%, which ranges from −0.0070% to 0.0094%, while the CAAR’s

mean value is 0.0818, that ranges between −0.0027% and 0.1625%, which suggesting that most of the issuers are experiencing an average return. A low CAAR may indicate that the stock is at a low price and vice versa. Theoretically, the stock that is being held at an average is likely to happen in a firm which has a stable earning history, consistent returns on the equity and a higher earning growth rate compared to the market average. In other words, the stocks between the average value are stocks belonging to a middle-sized to a large-scale firm. This theory is applicable to this study since the majority of our samples consist of middle-sized firms with an average market capitalisation.

Market capitalisation, which acts as the control variable shows the mean value of RM7, 599.7816 million, ranging from RM0.9300 million to RM57,571.0100 million. This could be due to the fact that bigger firms are already well-stabilised in terms of cash flows and profits. Due to their well-stabilised capital structure, the change in the capital structure with a new unproven instrument may endanger the firms’ credibility and ability to maintain their stable cash flow and profits especially during a financial crisis.

RETURNS USING THE FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA KLCI

The abnormal returns are calculated for 61 days of the event window. A cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR) is computed to test the cumulative effect of the announcement news on the market reactions. Table 2 provides the result taken during a 5-day time span (−2 to +2). The results showed that both AAR and CAAR are negative as well as becoming a significant result to the AAR mean values of 0.00343 on day −1. Regardless of the type of reaction (i.e. positive or negative), the rationale behind the early response is probably due to the leaked information on the new sukuk issuance before the official announcement is published to the public. Nevertheless, the significant negative abnormal returns on the day before the announcement is made which showed that the announcement of the sukuk offerings in the Malaysian debt market reflects unfavourable news over the study period. This reality is also being observed by Shamsher and Taufiq (2009). In the event study, it accurately explains

about 80–90 per cent of information content reflected in stock prices before the announcement date.

The negative AAR and CAAR on the day before the announcement showed a reversal behaviour that existed among market participants. That is, in the short-term

TABLE 1. Descriptive statistics

Variables Mean Min Max Skewness Kurtosis

Average abnormal return for 61 days (AAR %) 0.0012 -0.0070 0.0094 -0.072 -0.441Cummulative average abnormal return for 61 days 0.0818 -0.0027 0.1625 -0.064 -1.556(CAAR %)Amount issued (RM ‘000) 66,534.62 982.64 812,900 4.199 22.039Market cap(RM ‘mil) 7599.7816 0.9300 57571.01 2.972 9.494

Note: Observation = 115

TABLE 2. Daily abnormal return (AAR) on day -2 to day+2 (KLCI)

Day AAR CAAR mean t-value mean t-value AAR CAAR

-2 -0.00082 -0.379 0.0826 0.931-1 -0.00343* -1.681 -0.07916 -0.8850 -0.00269 -1.541 -0.02691 -1.5411 0.00067 0.280 -0.00202 -0.5352 0.00093 0.407 -0.00109 -0.216

Notes: * denote significant 10%.

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95Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market

the overconfidence increases following the arrival of confirming news and that leads to further overreaction and return momentum; in the long run, as investors realize their errors, a return reversal is observed. Furthermore, since on average investors hold long positions an increase in market prices will result in higher overconfidence and greater return momentum (Spyrou, Kassimatis & Galariotis 2007). Hong and Stein (1999) assume two type of investors that either rely exclusively on their own private information (news watchers) or rely exclusively on past price information (momentum traders) and develop a model that predicts initial under-reaction to information and a subsequent over-reaction. Although the return is negative and insignificant, the losses diminished (from -0.07916 to -0.02691) a day after the announcement, thus, investors can earn a positive abnormal returns.

CAARS SURROUNDING THE CRISIS PERIOD

Table 3 depicts the results of CAAR for each event window using FTSEKLCI for sukuk issuances that were isolated by the crisis period. There were no positive reactions from the market participants toward the announcement of sukuk before and after the financial crisis period. Apart from insignificant results, the returns of issuers also negative for all event windows. Before the 2007–2008 financial downturn, market participants showed a positive and significant reaction during the event of [−30, +30], for 61 days. The same pattern of significant results also can be seen after the financial crisis, over the larger event window of [-30, +30], for 61 days. That event showed the maximum value of cumulative average abnormal return (CAAR), which is 0.22952 and 0.09732 respectively with 1% significant result. The positive results of market reaction to the Islamic debt in this study is found consistent with the findings by Nursilah and Syazwani (2013) as well as with Ashhari et al. (2009) as they did found a significant

but negative reaction from market investors during the financial crisis period. However, the result of positive market reaction to the sukuk of this study is in contrast with the findings of a study by Modirzadehbami and Mansourfar (2011) that discovered a negative interpretation of Islamic bond announcement by market participants. The reason might explain this conflict of results would be investor’s misconception about the real nature of the Islamic bonds. They attributed their features to bond and failed to recognize their similarities to equities’ features in primary years. However, after a while, investors became more informed about the true characteristics of Islamic bonds and learned about its more common features with equity than bond. As a result, they started to treat Islamic bonds as equities rather than bonds.

During the crisis period, the results of CAAR for event windows over the period of up to [-7,+7], 15 days period displayed positive and negative reactions. Almost all results show positive and significant results during crisis. They showed good results on the event window of [0, 0], [-1, +1] and [-2, +2] which were -0.0783, 0.07788 and 0.07645 with 1% and 5% significant. The existence of a significantly positive reaction of stock markets during the financial crisis periods is contradicting with former literature which stated that stock markets did not react to debt announcements including bond issuances (Eckbo 1986; Mikkelson & Partch 1986; Modirzadehbami & Mansourfar 2011). This diverse market reaction could be attributed to the conditions where the Islamic debt issuance might have sent an incredible signal about the financial position of the company, which have helped in solving the financial problem, especially during the economic downturn. Hence, markets will react favourably to the issuance of sukuk due to high risk but in turn, bring negative returns to the investors. Moreover, the 2007 financial crisis can be considered as a major contributing factor in the investor’s investment preference.

TABLE 3. Summary of CAARs for each event window comparing between periods

Event window Before crisis During crisis After crisis 2004-2006 2007-2008 2009-2013

CAAR t-value CAAR t-value CAAR t-value

[0,0] 1-day 0.05668 1.145 -0.0783*** -1.989 0.0106 0.598 [-1,+1] 3-day -0.0579 -1.169 0.07788*** 1.975 -0.0109 -0.613 [-2,+2] 5-day -0.0593 -1.196 0.07645** 1.936 -0.0108 -0.608 [-3,+3] 7-day -0.0605 -1.221 0.07461* 1.883 -0.0104 -0.587 [-4,+4] 9-day -0.0616 -1.244 0.07322* 1.835 -0.0099 -0.559 [-5,+5] 11-day -0.0619 -1.24 0.07173* 1.816 -0.0091 -0.517 [-7,+7] 15-day -0.0584 -1.149 0.06765* 1.746 -0.0065 -0.372 [-15,+15] 31-day -0.0152 -0.339 0.04928 1.42 0.01448 0.879 [-30,+30] 61-day 0.22952*** 3.078 0.06896 1.121 0.09732*** 3.127

Note: ***, **, and * indicate significant at 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

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96 Jurnal Pengurusan 49

Despite the insignificant reaction on the announcement date pre and post crisis, sukuk in Malaysia has recovered after the crisis and showed improved results over a larger time frame with significantly positive reactions. The results indicated that Malaysian markets respond with delayed reaction. These reflected a positive signal in the Malaysian sukuk market, thus became the reason for investors’ awareness to change and protect their securities. One plausible explanation for this scenario is the huge demand for asset-backed sukuk in the global market post-crisis period (Young 2012). The announcements of

Islamic debt offerings enhanced the shariah compliance status of the issuing companies and attract more investors consequently lead to an increase of stock prices. It is an early, sound indication that the recent sukuk announcement is perceived to be non-negative by concerned investors after the 2007–2008 financial crisis. It also signals potential investors to hold the investment until day 61, for a promise of favourable returns from their existing investment in the respective stocks. Figure 3 further demonstrates the difference of CAAR before, during, and after the financial crisis.

FIGURE 3. CAARs for pre-crisis, during crisis and post-crisis period

TABLE 4. Daily abnormal return (AAR) on day -2 to day +2 (EMAS)

Day AAR CAAR

mean AAR t-value mean CAAR t-value

-2 .0008450 .541 .0164211 .112 -1 .0007665 .494 .0171881 .116 0 .0007052 .459 .0178931 .120 1 .0006976 .457 .0185908 .123 2 .0006952 .458 .0192863 .127

Note: ***, **, and * indicate significant at 1 percent, 5 percent and 10 percent, respectively

RETURNS VIA FTSE BURSA MALAYSIA EMAS INDEX

The analysis now proceeds to focus on the second alternative index, which is the FTSE Bursa Malaysia EMAS Index which is seen to better represent the sample population. Unlike the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI, which is based on 30 component stocks, the EMAS comprise of 100 stocks in the main market of Bursa Malaysia, thus, it is more likely to proxy the overall market portfolio and behaviour. For this additional analysis, the same method of measuring returns are used but with a different composite index (Rmt).

Table 4 reports that when a study is tested with more EMAS for a 5-day time span (−2 +2), none of the AAR and CAAR show a significant result. This prompted a question; which index can assist investors to form better investment strategies for the EMAS Index covered more stocks in the index? The insignificant result may be due to the majority of companies in the Malaysian stock market that are unaware or simply being ignorant toward new information flow in the market. This indirectly shows that the investors are less than concern with the offerings’ announcement to reform their investment strategies.

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97Market Reactions Towards the Announcement of Sukuk Issuance: Evidence from Malaysian Market

Instead, they focused and concerned on other aspects for their long-term strategies’ planning.

CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION FOR FUTURE STUDIES

Apart from financial information and economic news, political, and social events were also reflected in the security prices. If the market reacts toward the announcement of sukuk offerings, the market players (e.g. investors) might use this information to form strategies that may allow them to earn abnormal returns on their investment. This will help them to realise the goal in the Malaysia Key Economic Aspiration (NKEA) transformation programme to produce high-income citizens. This significance is brought in the objective of this study to examine whether the announcements on the sukuk issuance did carry any new information that affected the market reactions from 2001 until 2013 in Malaysia.

The findings of this study concluded that the AAR is significantly negative 1 day before the announcement of sukuk but the findings is opposite for CAAR (Table 2). According to Ashhari et al. (2009), the significant reaction before the announcement may be due to the leakage of information prior to the new issuance of sukuk in emerging economies like Malaysia, which is not expected to be as efficient as those in advanced economies. The CAARs during the crisis period indicated that there were positive reactions from market participants toward the announcement of sukuk. The positive market reactions during financial downturn can be interpreted in two ways. First, markets have readily distinguished the news. Second, markets were confident that shareholders’ wealth would be increased through the issuance of these sukuk. This is because, sukuk being neither debts nor shares, stayed true to the calling of Islamic economics and the issue reflects the economic strength of the company, therefore the real economic activities underlie the issuance. Despite no positive reaction occurring, the returns of issuers slowly progressed from negative to positive returns during most of the pre and post crisis event windows. This subsequently explained how Islamic debt issuance might have taken some time to send a convincing signal about the financial position of the company, and assisted in solving the financial problem, especially after the economic downturn. Hence, the markets will not react favourably to the issuance of sukuk due to high risk that could sometimes resulted in negative returns for the investors. This study also showed that there is a positive and significant reaction to stock returns during a larger time window of over 61 days, before and [−31, +31] after the financial crisis. This result is possible if the investors were able to perceive and digest the information content of the announcement that leads to the delayed reaction towards the announcement of the sukuk offerings. This indirectly portrayed a positive signal to the Malaysian sukuk market due to the investors’

awareness to switched to a more Shariah-compliant security after the financial crisis period is over. It is also seen as a sign for investors to hold their stocks for 61 days to earn a favourable return.

In short, the result of this study provides an early yet worthy indication of the recent sukuk announcement, which is perceived favourably to be non-negative by investors over longer periods of time. Markets have also shown positive and significant reaction during the financial downturn. The result is due to the announcement of the Islamic debt offerings that enhanced the shariah compliance status of issuing companies. This eventually attracted more investors to look for a more secured investment, leading to an increase in the stock price. Despite the different indexes used for a more robust finding, in Malaysian context, market participants prefer to refer the FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI as the main indicator of the stock market performance. Fewer market participants view the FTSE Bursa Malaysia and EMAS Index as benchmarks for market returns, hence for that reason, it is implausible to observe market reactions based on the EMAS Index.

In retrospect, future researchers could examine the impact of capital structure beyond this market and make a comparison between two or more markets; e.g. between advanced and emerging economic countries. The variables used in this study are limited based on the availability of data sample. It is possible to explore more explanatory variables and sukuk characteristics in the future. This study considered only the corporate finance aspect of sukuk; hence for future studies, one can consider the aspect of the shariah corporate governance to see whether or how shariah-compliant firms practice different sets of corporate governance. And if there is a difference, one can examine the contribution of shariah compliance corporate governance to the firm’s value or performance?

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

The authors wish to extend their gratitude to the three anonymous referees and also the participants of the Global Business and Finance Research Conference 2016, Sydney for their insightful comments and constructive suggestions on an earlier version of this paper. They also would like to acknowledge that this paper is part of a research project funded by LESTARI Grant awarded by the Universiti Teknologi MARA (UiTM) (600-RMD/DANA 5/3/LESTARI (56/2015)).

REFERENCES

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Zawya. 2013. Outstanding global sukuk reaches $240bn on back of $140bn sold in 2012. Available at http://www.zawya.com/story/Outstanding_global_sukuk_reaches_240bn_ on_back_of_140bn_sold_in_2012-ZAWYA20130115134002/

Muzrifah Mohamed (corresponding author)Faculty of AccountancyUniversiti Teknologi MARA (Puncak Alam Campus)42300 Bandar Puncak Alam, Selangor, MALAYSIA.E-Mail: [email protected]

Norliza Che YahyaFaculty of Business and ManagementUniversiti Teknologi MARA (Puncak Alam Campus)42300 Bandar Puncak Alam, Selangor, MALAYSIA.E-Mail: [email protected]

Nur Ashikin IshakFaculty of AccountancyUniversiti Teknologi MARA (Puncak Alam Campus)42300 Bandar Puncak Alam, Selangor, MALAYSIA.E-Mail:[email protected]

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APP

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s Bhd

1

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28/8

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3 17

/9/2

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8 51

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2/

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009

16/1

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09

14/1

1/20

14Si

me

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by B

hd

3 SM

K

2/11

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9 16

/11/

2009

16

/11/

2016

63

5,67

2,00

0

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1/20

12

11/1

2/20

12

10/1

2/20

27

Num

ber o

f iss

uanc

e an

d to

tal a

mou

nt is

sued

by

each

issu

er C

ompa

ny

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of

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t Is

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urity

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tal a

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nt

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date

da

te

date

is

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tinue

d

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tinue

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con

tinue

d

29

/11/

2012

30

/11/

2012

30

/11/

2018

Sym

phon

y Li

fe B

hd

3 SM

K

29/1

1/20

12

30/1

1/20

12

29/1

1/20

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80

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m T

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1 27

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25/6

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1

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11

13/9

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1 13

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SI

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023

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3 24

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N

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13

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20

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ga N

asio

nal B

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13

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2001

13

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2001

13

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2021

52

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0

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00

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con

tinue

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Num

ber o

f iss

uanc

e an

d to

tal a

mou

nt is

sued

by

each

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er C

ompa

ny

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ce

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urity

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tal a

mou

nt

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ance

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kuk

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te

date

is

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tinue

d

5/

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0 8/

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015

UM

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ngs B

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K

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2 28

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012

28/6

/201

7 23

6,67

1,60

0

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/201

3 8/

2/20

13

5/2/

2016

WC

T H

oldi

ngs B

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K

7/6/

2012

14

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012

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4 62

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28

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011

3/5/

2011

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5/20

21

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/201

1 3/

5/20

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3/5/

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28

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011

3/5/

2011

2/

5/20

25

28/4

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1 3/

5/20

11

30/4

/202

6

28/4

/201

1 3/

5/20

11

3/5/

2023

28

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011

3/5/

2011

3/

5/20

24W

estp

orts

Hol

ding

s Bhd

15

SM

K

28/3

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3 1/

4/20

13

31/3

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5,20

1,48

0

28/3

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3 1/

4/20

13

1/4/

2027

28

/3/2

013

1/4/

2013

1/

4/20

26

28/3

/201

3 1/

4/20

13

1/4/

2025

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2025

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2024

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2028

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2026

23

/10/

2013

23

/10/

2013

22

/10/

2027

Tota

l 11

5

7,

651,

481,

580

Not

e: S

MB

: Suk

uk A

l-Mur

abah

ah

SIJ:

Suk

uk A

l-Ija

rah

SI

N: S

ukuk

Al-I

stan

a’a

SM

D: S

ukuk

Al-M

udar

abah

SM

K: S

ukuk

Al-M

usha

raka

h

Artkl 8 (49) (Jun 2017).indd 102 27/09/2017 11:39:10