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ANN JOO RESOURCES BERHAD 24 TH ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING DATO’ LIM HONG THYE, GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR 28 JULY 2020

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  • ANN JOO RESOURCES BERHAD

    24TH ANNUAL GENERAL MEETINGDATO’ LIM HONG THYE, GROUP MANAGING DIRECTOR

    28 JULY 2020

  • INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

  • 1700

    1900

    2100

    2300

    2500

    2700

    2900

    MALAYSIA vs CHINA STEEL BAR PRICE (RM/MT)

    Malaysia Rebar Price (RM/mt delivered) China Rebar HRB400 (RM/mt Ex-work)

    (source : Mysteel, MITI Weekly Bulletin)

    2019 STEEL MARKET REVIEW - SUPPLY-DEMAND IMBALANCE

    3

    DEPRESSED DOMESTIC STEEL PRICE (↓ 17% Y-O-Y)

    OCT 18DECLINED DOMESTIC BARPRICE SINCE THE START-UPOF A FOREIGN-OWNED STEELMILL

    4Q19DOMESTIC PRICE ONRECOVERY TREND

    ❑ DOMESTIC BAR PRICE DEPRESSED BY EXCESS SUPPLY MAINLY FROM A NEWLY STARTED FOREIGN-OWNED STEEL MILL IN OCT 2018

    ❑ SOFTER STEEL DEMAND FROM SLOW PROGRESS OF INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS

    3Q19DOMESTIC PRICEDECLINED SHARPLYGIVEN OVERSUPPLYSITUATION

    MAY 18GE-19

    31ST MAY 19ANN JOO 23RD AGM As at

    31 Dec 2019

  • 220

    260

    300

    340

    380

    USD/MT Scrap Price (2018-2019)

    Scrap HMS, East Asia Import CFR $/t Yearly Avg. Price

    60

    80

    100

    120

    USD/MT Iron Ore Price (2018-2019)

    IODEX 62% Fe / North China import CFR Yearly Avg. Price

    4

    KEY RAW MATERIAL PRICE MOVEMENT

    Iron Ore ↑ 35% y-o-y Scrap ↓ 13% y-o-y

    (source : Steel Business Briefing)

    (2018 @ USD 69/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 93/mt)

    (2019 @ USD300/mt)

    (2018 @ USD 343/mt)

    IRON ORE PRICE SURGED TO USD126/MT IN 1H19 TRIGGERED BY INCIDENT OF VALE’S DAM COLLAPSE

    SCRAP PRICE SOFTENED ON WEAKER DEMAND

    As at 31 Dec 19

    As at 31 Dec 19

  • 5

    KEY RAW MATERIAL PRICE MOVEMENT

    (source : Steel Business Briefing)

    DOWNTREND OF COKING COAL PRICE DUE TO PRODUCTIONCURBS & IMPORT RESTRICTION IN CHINA

    COKE PRICE MOVED IN TANDEM WITHCOKING COAL PRICE TREND

    240

    280

    320

    360

    400

    USD/MT Coke Price (Jan 18 – Dec 19)

    Coke (CSR 62% North China FOB) Yearly Avg. Price

    100

    150

    200

    250

    USD/MT Coking Coal Price (Jan 18 – Dec 19)

    Premium Coking Coal (Australia Export FOB) Yearly Avg. Price

    Coking Coal ↓ 14% y-o-y Coke ↓ 13% y-o-y (2018 @ USD 207/mt) (2018 @ USD 350/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 177/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 305/mt)

    As at 31 Dec 19 As at

    31 Dec 19

  • FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

  • Profit & Loss (RM mil)

    1Q20 2019 2018

    Revenue 445.7 2,221.4 2,322.1

    EBITDA (10.1) (70.8) 229.6

    Pretax Profit/(Loss) (34.9) (162.0) 149.9

    Net Profit/(Loss) (30.6) (89.9) 149.5

    Basic EPS (sen) (5.66) (16.67) 28.13

    DPS (sen) - - 12.0

    FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS

    Notes:1. Free Cash Flow defined as Operating Cash Flow less Investing Cash Flow

    Balance Sheet (RM mil)

    1Q20 2019 2018

    Shareholders’ Funds 1,178.4 1,204.6 1,325.2

    Net Borrowings 1,032.3 970.5 966.6

    Inventory 916.4 872.2 1,085.4

    Trade Receivables 376.5 368.8 465.77

    Financial Position (RM mil)

    1Q20 2019 2018

    Operating Cash Flow (62.1) 70.9 (59.1)

    Free Cash Flow 1 (62.0) 33.0 (99.7)

    Borrowings12.6

    (+1.2%)47.5

    (+4.6%)176.6

    (+20.9%)

    Net Gearing 0.88 0.81 0.73

    ❑ 2019: Margin erosion on depressed steel prices &temporary shutdown cost from Blast Furnace relining

    ❑ 1Q20: Initial recovery in domestic demand post CNY2020 was abruptly halted with the sudden MCO

  • 538,124 574,320

    505,285

    603,706

    445,672

    1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20

    QUARTERLY REVENUE (RM’000)

    2019 REVENUE AFFECTED BYDEPRESSED SELLING PRICE DESPITE HIGHER SALE TONNAGE

    8

    1,760,928 1,870,050

    2,195,212 2,322,108

    2,221,435

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

    YEARLY REVENUE (RM’000)

  • MANUFACTURED PRODUCTS SELLING PRICE MOVEMENT

    9

    1.7%

    9.6%

    8.5%

    6.3%

    Wire Rod

    Pig Iron

    Billet

    Bar

    1Q20 vs 4Q19

    -10.3%

    -11.6%

    -14.1%

    -16.0%

    Wire Rod

    Pig Iron

    Billet

    Bar

    2019 vs 2018

    2019 : DEPRESSED STEEL PRICES ARISING FROM EXCESSSUPPLY

    1Q20 : INITIAL RECOVERY IN DOMESTIC DEMAND POST CNY2020 WAS ABRUPTLY HALTED WITH THE SUDDEN MCO

  • 10

    HEALTHY FINANCIAL POSITION

    1,238

    904

    789

    967 971 1,032

    1.34

    0.85

    0.64 0.73

    0.81

    0.88

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20

    Net Borrowings (RM’mil) & Net Gearing Ratio (x)

    Net Borowings Net Gearing Ratio

    *Net Receivables = Trade Receivables – Trade Payables

    952 831 847

    1,085

    872 916

    111171

    248

    240

    257257

    1,019

    1,063 1,002

    1,095

    1,325

    1,129 1,173

    219

    1,238

    904 789

    967 971 1,032

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q20

    Working Capital (RM’mil)

    Inventories Net Receivables* Net Borrowings (Trade lines) Bonds

    ▪ NET GEARING RATIO CONSISTENTLY BELOW 1X▪ ASSETS ARE FREE FROM ENCUMBRANCES

    ▪ INVENTORIES & NET RECEIVABLES EXCEED NET BORROWINGS (TRADE LINES)▪ NO LONG-TERM BORROWINGS

  • 11

    LONG-TERM FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE

    17 16 24 37

    69

    20

    127

    198

    149

    31

    121

    62

    (19)

    12 23

    (135)

    167

    205

    150

    (90)

    (31)

    ANN JOO GROUP PAT for 2000-2019 & 1Q20 (RM’Mil)

    2000 Took over Malayawata’smanagement

    2007Privatisation of AJSB

    2006 AJSB (Malayawata) became subsidiary of AJR

    Oct 2011 BF Commissioning

    1Q20Business disrupted by COVID-19 pandemic

    2016 Total Steel Solution Provider

    2019Excess domestic supply & depressed selling price

  • (8,326)

    (347,825)

    (89,860)

    6,705

    65,681

    45,202

    149,544

    Masteel

    Lion Ind

    Southern

    Ann Joo

    Profit /(Loss) After Tax (2019 vs 2018)(RM’000)

    2018

    2019

    FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE OF LONG-PRODUCT PRODUCERS

    Notes: Southern & Lion Ind yearly PAT are manually calculated accumulating 4 quarters for calendar year 2019;Lion Ind comprises its entire operations (not just the steel segment) 12

    (4,172)

    (56,709)

    (37,479)

    (30,558)

    688

    (98,330)

    (334,928)

    19,523

    Masteel

    Lion Ind

    Southern

    Ann Joo

    Profit /(Loss) After Tax (1Q20 vs 4Q19)(RM’000)

    4Q19

    1Q20

    (456,765)

    LOSS POSITION OF DOMESTIC LONG PRODUCT PRODUCERS MAINLY INFLUENCED BY DOMESTIC EXCESS SUPPLY & DEPRESSEDSELLING PRICES

  • PROSPECT

  • INDUSTRY LANDSCAPE

    DOMESTICMARKET

    ❑ Initial recovery in domestic demand post CNY 2020 was abruptly halted with thesudden MCO

    ❑ Sharp decline in steel demand in 2Q20 on COVID-19 pandemic impact and lowresumption rate of construction activities

    ❑ Recovery pace in steel demand will depend heavily on the Government’s spending oninfrastructure projects

    EXTERNALFACTORS

    ❑ Hike in iron ore prices to above USD100/mt in Jun 20 mainly influenced by globalsupply chain disruption due to ongoing COVID-19 infections in Brazil and Vale’s damcollapse incident in Jan 19 (which had already reduced Brazil’s supply of iron ore)

    ❑ Decline in coking coal prices due to trade tension between China and Australia

    ❑ China’s strong steel demand, boosted by fast-track infrastructure investments.Construction activities in China are expected to pick up substantially after its rainingseason in Jun-Aug 2020

    14

  • 1,750

    1,950

    2,150

    2,350

    2,550

    2,750

    2,950

    RM/MT End Jan 2019Price rose on iron ore price surge after Vale dam collapse

    (source : mysteel, MITI weekly bulletin)

    IMPACT OF COVID-19 OUTBREAK ON STEEL PRICES

    MALAYSIA vs CHINA STEEL BAR PRICE (RM/MT)

    Malaysia Rebar Price (RM.mt delivered) * MS 146 standard ≈ HRB 500 @ RMB100-150.mt > HRB400

    China Domestic Shanghai Rebar HRB400 (USD.mt Ex-work)

    3Q19Sharp fall in domestic bar price

    4Q19 Domestic price on recovery trend

    Mar 2020China price recovered after easing of lockdown & economic stimulus measures

    M’sia Bar PriceRM 1,980/MT

    China Bar Price RM 2,218/MT as

    As at 24 July 2020

    15

  • 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20

    58 143

    737

    444

    735

    43826 33

    229

    313

    730

    923

    58 28

    82

    86

    120 185

    142204

    1,048

    843

    1,585 1,546

    Malaysia Billet, Bar & Wire Rod Export (‘000 MT)

    Bar

    Wire Rod

    Billet

    DIVERSION OF SURPLUS DOMESTIC OUTPUT INTO EXPORT MARKET

    16(source: DOSM)

    MALAYSIA’S STEEL EXPORTS EXCEEDED 1.5MIL MT OF BAR, WIRE ROD & BILLET IN LAST TWOCONSECUTIVE QUARTERS

  • KEY RAW MATERIAL PRICES – IRON ORE & SCRAP

    IRON ORE❑ Price hovered around range of USD80 - 90/mt in the 1Q20

    ❑ Price surged above USD100/mt is supported by strong demandfrom China and supply concern over Brazilian COVID-19 spreadwhich caused suspension of Vale’s plant at Itabira

    ❑ Current spot price @ USD110/mt

    (source: Platts, Steel Business Briefing)

    60

    70

    80

    90

    100

    110

    120

    130

    USD/MT Iron Ore Price (Jan 18 –Jul 20)

    IODEX 62% Fe / North China import CFR Yearly Avg. Price

    ❑ Scrap price on downtrend in 1Q20 due to weak global demandimpacted by COVID-19 spread across the world

    ❑ Price rebounded to USD281/mt on supply tightness due to lowercollection from scrap generation industries

    ❑ Current spot price at USD267/mt

    SCRAP

    220240260280300320340360380

    USD/MT Scrap Price (Jan 18 – Jul 20)

    Scrap HMS, East Asia Import CFR $/t Yearly Avg. Price

    17

    HIKE IN IRON ORE PRICE DRIVEN BY SUPPLY TIGHTNESS & STRONG DEMAND FROM CHINA

    (2018 @ USD 69/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 93/mt)

    (2020 @ USD 93/mt)

    (2019 @ USD300/mt)

    (2018 @ USD 343/mt)

    (2020 @ USD264/mt)

    As at 24 Jul 20

    As at 24 Jul 20

  • KEY FUEL PRICES – COKING COAL & COKE

    COKING COAL❑ Coking coal experienced further downtrend since mid Mar 20 due

    to weak demand from global market and fell below USD110/mt inearly June

    ❑ Current spot price hovers @ USD110/mt due to weak demandconsequent to the import restrictions in China port & trade tensionbetween Australia & China

    ❑ Coke price fell to the lowest at USD249/mt in end Apr 20 drivenby weak demand from global market

    ❑ Price rebounded to USD283/mt due to firm demand & tightsupply in China domestic market, drive up by the policy to reducecoke output in Shandong & Xuzhou region

    ❑ Current spot price corrected to USD268/mt

    COKE

    (source: Platts, Steel Business Briefing)

    100120140160180200220240260

    USD/MT Coking Coal Price (May 19 – Jul 20)

    Premium Coking Coal (Australia Export FOB) Yearly Avg. Price

    240260280300320340360380400

    USD/MT Coke Price (May 19 – Jul 20)

    Coke (CSR 62% North China FOB) Yearly Avg. Price

    18

    ANN JOO’S COKE PRICE IS CONTRACTED BASED ON COKING COAL PRICE & EXPECTED TO BENEFIT FROMLOW COKING COAL PRICE

    (2018 @ USD 207/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 177/mt)

    (2020 @ USD 134/mt)

    (2018 @ USD 350/mt)

    (2019 @ USD 305/mt)

    (2020 @ USD 272/mt)

    As at 24 Jul 20

    As at 24 Jul 20

  • STRATEGIC DIRECTION

  • STRATEGIC DIRECTION – KEY FOCUS AREAS FOR NEXT 6 MONTHS

    Channel to export markets, particularly China, where infrastructure demand is supported by domestic pump priming1

    20

    Aggressive exports

    Disciplined sales collection

    Positive free cash flow

    Lower Borrowings

    (Target

  • 21

    MARKET CAPITALIZATION OF STEEL PLAYERS

    0

    200

    400

    600

    800

    1,000

    1,200

    1,400

    1,600

    1,800

    2,000

    Ann Joo Southern Lion Ind Masteel

    STEEL PLAYERS’ MARKET CAPITALIZATION (2016 – YTD2020)

    2016-2017Ann Joo expanded market leadership due to cost advantage

    2019Commenced bar production of a wholly-foreign-owned steel mill

    Mar 2020MCO

    RM’mil

    2019 - PresentAnn Joo remained the largest steel counter by market cap despite slump in domestic market

    As at 24 Jul 2020

  • INVESTMENT RESEARCH ON ANN JOO

  • RESEARCH REPORTS BASED ON 1Q20 RESULTS

    RESEARCH HOUSE DATE OF REPORT

    RECOMMENDATION TARGET PRICE (RM)

    PE (X)

    NET PROFIT (RM MIL)

    EPS (SEN)

    FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21 FY20 FY21

    KAF-Seagroatt & Campbell

    30/06/2020 Buy 0.88 (6.1) (8.9) (127.1) (56.2) (19.4) (8.1)

    KenangaInvestment Bank

    01/07/2020 Underperform 0.55 N/A N/A (60.0) (13.0) (11.1) (2.4)

    TA Securities 01/07/2020 Sell 0.42 (6.6) 36.0 (60.7) 11.3 (11.0) 2.0

    AmInvestmentBank

    01/07/2020 Underweight 0.55 N/A N/A (132.9) (54.1) (20.5) (8.4)

    23

  • THANK YOU