linn linkedin

17
Section 31-Tulare Analysis Dilan Orrino , Reservoir Engineering Intern SoCal Asset Team, Bakersfield, CA

Upload: dilan-orrino

Post on 14-Apr-2017

195 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: LINN Linkedin

Section 31-Tulare Analysis Dilan Orrino , Reservoir Engineering InternSoCal Asset Team, Bakersfield, CA

Page 2: LINN Linkedin

Agenda

2

Project Introduction Area of interest Outline

Initial Reservoir Analysis Stratigraphy Structure Proposal

LOE Optimization Pilot vs Future

Full Development Plan ARIES case

Future Ventures Executive Summary

Page 3: LINN Linkedin

Introduction

Page 4: LINN Linkedin

4

Area of Interest

Tulare

MonarchSublakeview

Homebase

2mi

10

20

20

20

30

30

30

40

40

40

40

50

Sec31_32i Sec31_34i

Sec31_31i

Sec31_004A

Sec31_005

Sec31_006

Lakeview_007

Sec31_012

Sec31_013

Sec31_014

Sec31_016

Sec31_017

Sec31_018

Sec31_019

Sec31_020

Sec31_021

Sec31_021RD

Sec31_100

Sec31_101

Sec31_102

Sec31_103

Sec31_104

Sec31_105

Sec31_106

Sec31_201

Sec31_217

Sec31_223

Sec31_236

Sec31_300

Sec31_301

Sec31_302

Sec31_306

Sec31_303

SEC_31D_028

SEC_31D_029

SEC_31D_034

Sec31_305

Sec31_33i

Sec31_304

Sec31_307 Sec31_308

Sec31_309

Sec31_TO2

Sec31_TO1

Sec31_401

Sec31_402Copy of Sec31_013

4.006.008.0010.0012.0014.0016.0018.0020.0022.0024.0026.0028.0030.0032.0034.0036.0038.0040.0042.0044.0046.0048.0050.0052.0054.00

HCPV oil (map) [ft]

0 200 400 600 800 1000ftUS

1. Maximize Free Cash Flow2. Minimize Base Decline3. Identify development opportunities and

quickly execute4. Replenish development opportunities

SoCal Asset Team

Page 5: LINN Linkedin

Initial Assessment Geology Overview

LOE Analysis of Pilot Identify current spending on

pilot Adjust spending to field

development Compare to ARIES

Reservoir Engineering on field development Type curve analysis Update ARIES with new Future

capital and LOE Build updated ARIES case

5

Project Outline

Project Features

302 303

304 305 306

307 308

309

301i

302i 304i

303i

301

233 ft.

Section 31 Pilot Homebase property

Multi-reservoir lease near Taft Target the Tulare Formation

Sandstone, Depth 1000 ft Heavy Oil (9-13 API)

30 MM bbls OOIP, 0% RTD 9 wells, 4 injectors, 2 temperature

observation wells

TO Well

Injector

Producer

Page 6: LINN Linkedin

Initial Reservoir Analysis

Page 7: LINN Linkedin

7

Stratigraphic Characteristics

Base Tulare Reservoir

San Joaquin

Miocene

Top Tulare

Top Middle Tulare

(-241.7)

(2864)

43.9

243.9

443.9

643.9

843.9

1043.9

1243.9

1443.9

1643.9

1843.9

2043.9

2243.9

2443.9

2643.9

Sec31_104 [SSTVD]

87.48 mV 88.89

SP Derived Normalized [Synthetic]

30.00 gAPI 150.00

GR

5.00 20.00inHCAL

Color fill

MD1.0000 ohm.m 100.0000

ILD [Derived] 1 0.6000 ft3/ft3 0.0000

DPHI_cln [Derived] 1

0.6000 ft3/ft3 0.0000

NPHI_cln [Derived] 1

DPHI_cln

Top Tulare

San Joaquin Formation

Miocene Unconformity

Upper Tulare

Middle Tulare

Lower Tulare

Air saturated alluvium

Deposition Upper Tulare

Alluvial deposits Air saturated

Middle Tulare Lacustrine deposits Shale and fine grain

sediment Lower Tulare

Alluvial deposits High water saturation

Lower Tulare

Middle TulareUpper Tulare

Target Interval

Depth: 940-1,160 MD Gross Pay: 140 ft Net Pay: 105 ft NTG: 79% Average porosity: 29% Average oil saturation: 41% Permeability: 4,000 mD Oil gravity: 9.4 API Viscosity at 122F: 8,200 cp

Reservoir

Page 8: LINN Linkedin

8

Structure Map Tulare Top

?

??

?

Tulare OutcropAir Sand

Page 9: LINN Linkedin

LOE Analysis

Page 10: LINN Linkedin

10

Current Spending

SURFACE R&M11%

Surveillance20%

ELECTRICIAN1%

PIPELINE1%

FIELD SUPPLIES

0%

SERVICE RIGS40%

PUMPER1%

STEAM RIG1%

SURFACE PUMPS

4%

LOCATION0%

PUMPING UNITS

3%

RODS/PUMPS15%

DOWNHOLE0%

WATER1% WIRELINE

2%Discussion of Fixed Costs

Cost (8 mo.) Cost/Well/Month

LOE to Date $156,264 $2,170

-Reduced Rigs ($57,140) ($794)

-Reduced Surv. ($14,184) ($197)

-Reduced Misc. ($8,136) ($113)

Reduced LOE $76,804 $1,067

ARIES $76,320 $1,060

Compared Sec31 Similar Rig Costs Service Rigs- $856

Surveillance cost reduction Pilot information utilized Surveillance- $426

Decreased pump work and rod failures

Unexpected lifting challenges

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 20700

1

2

3

4

5

Inflated Optimized

Year

Net N

on S

tm E

xp, M

M$

($36,470,000)

Page 11: LINN Linkedin

Bitumen Zone Rod failures

Pump work

Fluid over pump Upsizing equipment Stroke rate

11

Section 31 Challenges

LOE Drivers

Equipping Strategy

Pumping Units Longer stroke Higher spm

Pumps Larger bore

Better rod integrity More efficient well pump off

Page 12: LINN Linkedin

Field Development

Page 13: LINN Linkedin

13

ARIES Case Constrained

Steam Injection Profile Drilling

Lifting Cost Production

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

0

10

20

30

Net Stm Exp $MM Net Non-Stm Exp $MM Production Tax

$

2014

2017

2019

2021

2023

2025

2027

2029

2031

2033

2035

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

0

50

100

150

200

250

Count Cum

Wel

l Cou

nt

2014

2018

2022

2026

2030

2034

2038

2042

2046

2050

2054

2058

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Stm Vol B/D Constaint UnconstrainedSOR

BBLs

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

00.5

1

1.52

2.53

3.54

Pilot Risked Unrisked

MB

OPD

Page 14: LINN Linkedin

14

ARIES Case Constrained

5 Year Cash Flow Capital

Free Cash Flow ComparisonConstrained Unconstrained

ROR 85.01% 84.61%

NAV $ 96,450,448 $109,300,384

Oil Recovery 17.9 MM 17.9 MM

Revenue $604,541,056 $604,541,120

OPEX ($234,518,048) ($234,956,720)

Capital ($69,874,000) ($81,572,000)

Free Cash Flow $300,149,008 $288,012,400

Key points

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

2032

2035

2038

2041

2044

2047

2050

2053

2056

2059

-6

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

26

30

Unconstrained Constrained

$MM

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200

5

10

15

20

25

Unrisked 65

$MM

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

Risked 50 Risked 65 Risked 75

$MM

Page 15: LINN Linkedin

New Tulare Ventures

Page 16: LINN Linkedin

16

Executive Summary

Oil Price $65 $50

ROR 85.01% 52.59%

NAV $ 96,450,448 $ 55,150,312

Oil Recovery 17.9 MM 17.9 MM

Revenue $604,541,056 $466,157,856

OPEX ($234,518,048) ($234,518,048)

Capital ($69,874,000) ($69,874,000)

Free Cash Flow $300,149,008 $161,765,808

Constrained Steam

Heat in pilot this summer Confirmed oil production

Utilize Steam Excess steam capacity due to field

decline

Production Parameters Pad construction and roads Pipeline Infrastructure

Engineering for steamline and installation of groupline

Steam Headers 7 producers per header

Updated equipping strategy Higher expected gross

Reservoir Engineering Recap

LOE analysis Proved up lease expenses

Type curve analysis Steam type curve for SOR

management Oil type curve based on pilot IP and

steamflood EUR Adjusted Facilities

No steam generation New drilling timeline

Page 17: LINN Linkedin

Thank you to LINN Energy!

Greg Wagner Ben Mendes Jeremy Vanderziel Carlos Alvarez Jennifer James Dream Weaver Sara Maloney Eric Dhanens

Special thanks to… Niles Dhanens Jacob Farewell