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    Occasional Paper No. 45

    EFFECTIVE FINANCIAL SYSTEM STABILITY FRAMEWORK

    Wimboh Santoso

    Sukarela Batunanggar

    The South East Asian Central Banks

    Research and Training Centre

    (The SEACEN Centre)

    Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

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    TABLE OF CONTENTS

    Foreword

    Abstract

    2. Introduction3. What is Financial Stability?3. Central Banks Roles in Maintaining Financial System Stability

    3.1Strategies

    4. Promoting Financial Stability in Practice

    4.1 Research on the Financial System4.2 Surveillance on Financial System

    4.2.1 Surveillance on the Financial Institutions and Markets

    4.2.2 Surveillance on the Markets Infrastructure

    4.2.3 The Surveillance on Domestic Finance

    4.2.4 The Surveillance on International Finance

    4.2.5 Products and Reports of Financial System Stability

    5. Coordination and Cooperation

    6. Financial Safety Nets and Crisis Management

    6.1 Lender of Last Resort

    6.1.1 Lender of Last Resort in Normal Times

    6.1.2 LLR in Exceptional Circumstances

    6.2 Deposit Insurance Scheme

    7. Key Challenges and the Way ForwardSelected References

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    Foreword

    Rapid expansion in the financial services industry and globalisation of financial markets haveenhanced economic growth opportunities. They have also increased the risks in the financial sector

    heightening challenges in the maintenance of financial system stability and hence, requiring greater

    attention of the responsible country authorities as well as international organisations. Moreover,

    recent financial crises have clearly demonstrated the importance of maintaining systemic stability in

    the financial sector. As a result, financial system stability has become a primary agenda item at the

    country level as well as international level. Consequently, it has become one of the key objectives of

    an increasing number of central banks. A stable financial system not only facilitates efficiency in

    financial intermediation and resource allocation but also provides an effective conduit for

    transmission mechanism of monetary policies. Meanwhile, absence of financial system stability is

    costly as it may lead to financial crisis resulting in drastic consequences of lower economic growth,

    higher fiscal burden, and even social and political instability.

    Financial stability is a broad concept which does not have a simple or universally accepted

    definition. However, there seems to be a broad consensus that it refers to the smooth functioning of

    the key elements (i.e., institutions, markets and infrastrucutre, etc) that make up the financial system.

    As such, the role of the authorities responsible for promoting and maintaining financial stability (i.e.,

    central banks and other financial supervisory authorities) involves monitoring both domestic and

    international financial developments, identifying areas of concern relevant to the financial system and

    undertaking necessary measures in coordination with other relevant institutions.

    This Occasional Paper analyses financial system stability and how it is practiced as an

    important task of a central bank, particularly in the context of Bank Indonesia. The Paper delves into

    the definition of finanical stability, role of the central bank in maintaining financial stability,

    promoting financial stability in practice, coordination and cooperation, financial safety nets and crisis

    management and lastly, key challenges.

    The SEACEN Centre gratefully acknowledge the contribution of Dr. Wimboh Santoso, Head

    of Financial System Stability Bureau, and Mr. Sukarela Batunanggar, Executive Research, FinancialSystem Stability Bureau, both of Bank Indonesia, for authoring the Paper. The views expressed in

    this Paper are, however, those of the authors and are not necessarily those of Bank Indonesia and

    The SEACEN Centre.

    Dr. A.G. Karunasena The SEACEN Centre

    Executive Director Kuala Lumpur

    September 2007

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    Abstract

    This paper analyses the concept of financial system stability and how it is practiced as one of

    the key objectives of a central bank. The paper discusses five main topics related to financial

    system stability: (i) what is financial system stability and why it is important; (ii) central bank

    function in maintaining financial system stability; (iii) promoting financial system stability in

    practice. This topic elaborates research and surveillance activities on the financial system,

    covering financial institutions and markets, financial infrastructure, domestic finance and

    international finance; (iv) coordination and cooperation in maintaining financial stability;

    (v) financial safety nets and crisis management. The paper concludes by posing several key

    challenges faced by related authorities in creating and maintaining financial system stability.

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    Effective Financial System Stability Framework

    Wimboh Santoso1 and Sukarela Batunanggar2

    1. Introduction

    The financial crisis that swept over Southeast Asia in 1997, which included Indonesia, has

    taught us a very valuable lesson in the importance of maintaining stability of the financial system.

    During the past few years, financial system stability has been the primary agenda at national and

    international levels. The year 1999 saw the establishment of an international institute and an

    international forum, namely the Financial Stability Institute 3 and Financial Stability Forum (FSF)4,intended to assist central banks and other supervisory authorities in strengthening their financial

    systems. Similar concerns have also been indicated by IMF and the World Bank, which introduced a

    Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) to strengthen the financial system of the country being

    assessed.5

    Increase in interest and attention in this area may also be seen by the increase in publications

    of books, articles and papers as well as seminars and conventions related to financial crisis and

    financial system stability. In addition, there is a growing number of central banks creating a unit or

    even groups dedicated to addressing financial system stability issues and financial stability reviews.

    Central banks need to maintain financial system stability based on three primary reasons.

    Firstly, financial institutions, particularly banks, have important roles as financial intermediaries and

    as a transmission means of monetary policies, in the economy. These institutions are exposed

    1Head of Financial System Stability Bureau, Bank Indonesia, e -mail: [email protected] 2Executive Researcher, Financial System Stability Bureau, Bank Indonesia, e-mail: [email protected]. The views

    expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Bank Indonesia. The authorsexpress sincerely thanks to Endang Kurnia Saputra, Wini Purwanti and Ita Rulina researcher at the Financial System

    Stability Bureau, who made large contributions in the preparation of this paper.3

    FSI is established by the Basel Committee on banking Supervision (BCBS) to assist supervisory authorities in

    strengthening their financial system. For further details visit http://www.bis.org/fsi/index.htm.4

    FSF is meant to improve stability of international financial system through exchange of information and international

    cooperation in the area of research and surveillance. FSF is composed of members from relevant authorities (financeministries, central banks, financial supervisory authorities) from 11 countries, as well as international organisations (such

    as IMF, World Bank, BIS, OECD), international committees and associations (Basel Committee on Banking Supervision/

    BCBS), International Accounting Standard Board (IASB), In ternational Association of Insurance Supervisors (IAIS),

    International Organization of Securities Commissions (IOSCO), Committee on Payment and Settlement System (CPSS),Committee on Global Financial System (CGFS) and European Central Bank. For further details please visit http://

    www.fsforum.org/home/home.html.5

    FSAP is a concerted effort of IMF and World Bank which is introduced in May 1999. This program is intended to

    increase effectiveness in the efforts of improving soundness of financial system in me mber countries. For further details

    visit http://www.imf.org/external/np/fsap/fsap.asp.

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    significantly to high levels of risks inherent in their operations. Therefore, financial institutions

    constitute an important potential instability factor to the financial system. Secondly, all financial

    crises have brought catastrophic implications to the economy, lowering economic growth andincome. These eventually create negative impacts on social and political life if prompt measures fail

    to address the crisis rapidly and effectively. Thirdly, financial instability brings great fiscal costs in

    the course of its mitigation.

    Assessment of financial system stability is conducted by incorporating an early warning

    system to monitor and analyse trends in the macro-prudential and micro-prudential indicators4. The

    macro-prudential indicators include figures associated with economic growth, balance of payments,

    inflation, interest rates and exchange rates; the contagion effects, and all other relevant factors. The

    aggregated micro-prudential indicators include financial indicators such as Capital Adequacy, Asset

    Quality, Management, Earnings, Liquidity and Sensitivity to Market Risk (CAMELS). Theassessment basically contains identification and evaluation of risks that may adversely affect

    financial system stability and offers recommendations to the government and relevant authorities to

    carry out the necessary actions.

    4. What is Financial Stability?Financial system stability is a broad concept. It is built on five interrelated pillars, namely: (i)

    stable macroeconomic conditions; (ii) sound regulation and supervision of financial institutions; (iii)

    sound and efficient financial institutions and markets; (iv) safe and reliable financial infrastructures;

    and (v) effective financial safety nets (McFarlane, 1999).

    Existing literatures do not provide a clear-cut

    definition of financial stability. Duisenberg

    (2001, p. 38) cites: monetary stability is defined

    as stability in the general level of prices, or the

    absence of inflation or deflation. However,

    financial stability does not have an easy or

    universally accepted definition. Nevertheless,

    there seems to be a broad consensus that financialstability refers to the smooth functioning of the

    key elements that make up the financial system.

    Crockett (1997) defines financial stability as the stability of the key institutions and markets

    that make up the financial system. This requires (i) stability of the key institutions in the financial

    system with high degrees of confidence that enables them to carry on their contractual obligations

    without intrusion or outside support; and (ii) stability of key markets, in that participants can

    Stable macro-

    economicenvironment

    Well-managedfinancial institutions

    and efficient financial

    markets

    Sound framework

    of prudentialsupervision

    Stable and sound

    financial system

    Safe and robust

    payments system

    Stable macro-

    economicenvironment

    Well-managedfinancial institutions

    and efficient financial

    markets

    Sound framework

    of prudentialsupervision

    Stable and sound

    financial system

    Safe and robust

    payments system

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    confidently perform at prices that reflect the fundamental forces and that do not fluctuate

    substantially over short periods and in the absence of fundamentals changes.

    Mishkin (1997, p. 62) provides another definition. He focuses more on the link of informationproblems and financial stability, and defines financial instability as when shocks to the financial

    system interfere with information flows so that the financial system can no longer do its job of

    channeling funds to those with productive investment opportunities.

    Some analysts such as MacFarlane (1999) and Sinclair (2001) view the financial system

    stability or financial stability from what it may prevent by defining financial stability as the

    avoidance of financial crisis, while Schinasi (2004) provides a description of what the achievement

    of such stability affords us. Shinasi defines financial stability as a situation in which the financial

    system is: (i) allocating resources efficiently between activities and across time; (ii) assessing and

    managing financial risks, and (iii) absorbing shocks. A stable financial system is thus one that

    enhances economic performance and wealth accumulation while it is also able to prevent adverse

    disturbances from having inordinate disruptive impacts.

    In general there are two approaches in maintaining financial system stability, i.e. the micro-

    prudential approach and the macro-prudential approach. The macro and micro-prudential

    perspectives differ in terms of objectives and models used to describe risk (Borio C., 2002). The

    objective of a macro-prudential approach is to limit the risk of episodes of financial distress with

    potential significant losses in terms of real output to the economy as a whole. On the other hand,

    the micro-prudential approach limits the risk of episodes of financial distress at individual

    institutions, regardless of their impact on the overall economy. The micro-prudential approach is

    more related to the consumer (depositors and investors) protection area, whereas the objective of the

    macro-prudential approach stays within the traditional macroeconomic fields. In practice, both

    approaches should be combined and synchronised in order to reduce both endogenous and exogenous

    risks that could potentially harm the stability of the financial system.

    3. Central Banks Roles in Maintaining Financial System Stability

    Safeguarding financial stability is also a core function of the modern central bank, other than

    market operation and monetary policy (Sinclair, 2001). Sinclair et. al provides evidence from adetailed survey of 37 central banks drawn from a wide variety of industrial, transitional and

    developing countries. For central banks that have never regulated or supervised financial institutions,

    and for those that have moved away from this role, financial stability responsibilities may be shared

    with other agencies, but the central bank is still very much in the game.

    Financial system stability is a public policy which requires the cooperation and interaction of

    related institutions, namely, the central bank, supervisory authority, ministry of finance, and deposit

    insurance company. The financial system stability functions of central banks are aimed at promoting

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    a stable financial system that can enhance economic performance and increase wealth by preventing

    disturbances to the financial system, which in turn may impact negatively on the economy as a

    whole.

    Box 1. CAUSES AND PROCESS OF FINANCIAL CRISIS

    Financial crises may originate from problems existing in any of the various correlating components within the

    financial system, such as financial institutions, banks, non-bank financial institutions or the capital market (the

    first ring); or they may be caused by one or a combination of problems within the real or fiscal sector, or in the

    payment system (the second ring). Nevertheless, a crisis may also be sparked by external factors through its

    contagion effects (the third ring), similar to the one that spilled-over to Asia in 1997.

    Learning from the Asian and Indonesia crisis of 1997, the instability of financial system occurs through three

    major phases (Mishkin, 2001).

    Figure 2: Interactions within a Financial System

    Firstly, impaired public confidence in the financial system. This

    may be caused by various problems in the economy or financial

    system, such as the worsening financial condition of banks,

    increased interest rates, decreased share prices and increased

    uncertainty.

    Then, in the second phase, impaired confidence of customers and

    investors toward the economy and the IDR results in the

    depreciation of the IDR which then prompts a currency crisis.

    Finally, such currency crisis would lead to crises in the bankingsector. This is prompted by depositors withdrawing their deposits (a systemic bank run) which results in

    liquidity problems for the banks. In addition, banks sustain losses from non-performing loans, particularly

    those of corporations with un-hedged overseas borrowings. The cost of overseas loans borne by corporations

    will skyrocket due to the depreciation of the IDR against the USD. The twin crisis (currency and banking

    crisis) if not effectively addressed, will result in even wider complications with the potential of economic,

    social and political instability.

    Consequently, the Government will have to bear a huge fiscal cost (in the case of Indonesia, 51% of its Gross

    Domestic Product) in order to rescue its banking system. The huge fiscal cost will eventually be borne by the

    taxpayers, i.e. the public . In addition, the prolonged financia l crisis will have adverse impacts on the national

    economy, such as lower economic growth and output levels, aggravated by financial disintermediation.

    Some central banks, such as the Bank of England, Bank of Finland, and the Reserve Bank of

    Australia have explicit roles and responsibilities with regard to maintaining financial stability which

    are stipulated in laws. Elsewhere, in Singapore for example, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has

    a different statement to reflect its role in financial stability which is promoting a sound financial

    structure. In the majority of developing economies, the statutory mandate for central banks does no

    more than stipulate the regulatory and supervisory functions (Bulgaria, Russia). In some countries

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    where the central bank does not carry out prudential supervision, the statute may specify

    responsibility to ensure the smooth and/or efficient functioning of the payment system and/or

    responsibility to monitor developments in the money, credit and foreign exchange markets (Norway,Sweden, Chile, Hungary).

    Bank Indonesia incorporates the financial system stability function in its mission in line with

    the introduction of its amended Law 6. Therefore, even though it is not explicitly stated in the law,

    Bank Indonesia has a clear role and objective in maintaining financial system stability.

    3.2 StrategiesWhile there is no universal framework for financial stability, in general, a framework would

    consist of a central bank mission, objective and strategies as well as policy instruments inmaintaining its role in financial stability (see Figure 2 below).

    In order to achieve financial system stability, a central bank generally adopts four major

    strategies: (i) implementing regulations and standards including fostering market discipline; (ii)

    intensifying research and surveillance on financial system; (iii) improving effective coordination and

    cooperation with relevant institutions; and iv) establishing crisis resolutions and financial safety nets.

    Figure 2. Financial System Stability Framework

    6 Bank Indonesias mission is to achieve and maintain stability of the Indonesian Rupiah through maintaining financial

    stability and promoting financial system stability for sustainable national development.

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    The strategies could be briefly described as follows:

    (a) Implementing regulations and standards. Consistent implementation of international prudentialregulations and standards are required by regulator s and market players as a sound foundation in

    conducting their activities. In addition, consistent disciplines of the market players need to be

    fostered.

    (b) Intensifying research and surveillance.Development of the financial system in aspects potentially

    affecting its stability should be assessed and monitored. Risks which may endanger financial system

    stability are measured and monitored by incorporating an early warning system which is composed of

    micro-prudential and macro-prudential indicators. Research and surveillance are aimed at producing

    a policy recommendation for maintaining financial system stability.

    (c) Establishing a safety net and crisis resolutions framework. Safety net and crisis resolutions

    framework and mechanism are required for resolving financial crisis once it occurs. These include

    policy and procedures of the lender of the last resort, and the deposit insurance which will replace the

    blanket guarantee. Currently, there is no clear legal framework for crisis resolution.

    (d) Improving coordination and cooperation. Coordination and cooperation with related agencies is

    very crucial especially in crisis times. The coordination amongst financial safety nets players is

    usually achieved through forming a committee composed of the central bank, financial supervisory

    agency, and ministry of finance.

    Regarding the adoption of regulation and standards, New Zealand has a different strategy for

    promoting financial stability which focuses more on promoting self discipline of banks in managing

    risks and fostering effective market discipline in the banking system. It also seeks to avoid

    supervisory practices that might erode market discipline and weaken the incentives for bank directors

    to take ultimate responsibility for the management of risks.

    With the possible exception of New Zealand, no country has adopted the position that market

    forces can be relied on as the guarantor of financial institutions stability.

    4. Promoting Financial Stability in Practice

    The Bank of England is one of the pioneers in developing and performing the financial

    stability function. This was especially so just after it transferred its banking supervisory power to the

    Financial Services Authority (FSA) in 1996. The Bank of England has one of the most

    comprehensive operation in financial stability and allocates many staff to work on the area.

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    Following the Asian crisis of 1997/1998, there has been growing awareness, particularly in

    the Asian region, regarding the importance of maintaining financial system stabilityan effort

    closely related to maintaining monetary stability. During the last five years, there has been anincreasing trend in the establishment of dedicated units in central banks to perform financial stability

    functions and publish financial stability reports. For example, Bank Indonesia, following IMFs

    recommendation, formulated a framework and established a unit responsible to perform financial

    system stability function in mid 2003.

    As was outlined in the previous section, the key activities performed by a central bank in the

    financial stability area includes carrying-out research and surveillance on the financial system,

    coordinating with other institutions in maintaining financial stability, and providing financial safety

    nets and crisis management policy as follows:

    4.3 Research on the Financial SystemResearch and surveillance on the financial system are aimed at identifying, measuring and

    monitoring risks, both endogenous and exogenous, which can threaten financial stability. These will

    be used as input in determining policy actions to be taken. These actions could be categorised into

    three types depending on their impact, i.e. prevention, correction, and crisis resolution.

    Research in financial stability is carried out utilising a set of systematic activities based on

    scientific methods, aimed at producing analyses on issues and risks on financial stability. Another

    objective of these activities is to develop tools which include stress testing frameworks to support

    surveillance function. These tools and stress testing, to some extent, will be used as an early warning

    indicator of potential threats in the financial system. The coverage of research is mainly identifying

    and measuring the potential risks faced by the banking industry, non-bank financial industry,

    household sector, corporate sector and macro-economy conditions.

    Bank Indonesia, for example, has conducted research to develop tools to support surveillance

    functions such as Banks and Corporate Sector Probability Default, Early Indicators of Banking

    Crises, Cost Intermediation and Macroeconomic Stress Testing.

    4.4 Surveillance on Financial SystemSurveillance activities are part of the function of the financial stability unit and are carried out

    to monitor aspects related to financial system stability. This is done by observing all components

    influencing the stability. The activities are performed on an ongoing basis by analysing and assessing

    a range of aggregate financial and economic data. This helps measure the soundness of the financial

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    system and the potential threats and vulnerabilities. This will enable necessary action and policy be

    taken in due course to minimise the negative impacts on the financial system stability.

    The surveillance covers all conditions and policy directions of all related institutions, and

    includes individual financial institution and markets, market infrastructure, domestic and

    international finance, supervisory authorities, and the Government.

    The analysis and assessment are based on the series of aggregate financial and economic data

    gathered from various sources, both internally and externally. The tools comprise of macro-

    prudential, Financial Soundness Indicators (FSI), and stress tests. Analysing the threats to the

    financial stability can be accomplished by focusing on risk factors originating within and from

    outside the financial system. The macro-prudential is an area to analyse risk aggregation of individual

    institutions in a financial sector, while micro prudential are more concerned with the individual

    financial institution indicators7. The difference between the two is within the scope of area analysed.

    Figure 3. Surveillance Framework

    Micro-prudential analyses focus on individual institutions promoting their soundness and

    protecting their depositors. Thus, they are concerned with reducing and limiting the distress of

    individual institutions. Meanwhile, macro-prudential analyses focus on a wider aspect, which is the

    financial system as a whole, mainly concentrating on limiting system-wide distresses and promoting

    7 Svein Gjedrem: The macroprudential approach to financial stability; Keynote address at the conference entitled

    Monetary Policy and Financial Stability by the Oesterreichische Nationalbank in Vienna, May 12th

    , 2005.

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    the soundness and stability of the financia l system. Systemic risk is an important concept in macro-

    prudential analyses which place more emphasis in the interlinkage exposures across institutions.

    External risk factors may come from the macroeconomic disturbances, asset price bubble or

    strong growth in debt. These factors can pose threats to the financial stability. Financial Soundness

    Indicators (FSI) covering most financial and non-financial sectors, including banking, non-banking,

    household and corporate sectors, are used to identify potential sources of threats and instability and is

    used widely by many authorities, including Bank Indonesia.

    Other approaches also utilised is the stress testing method which is useful to analyse the

    potential impacts of adverse macroeconomic shocks on financial stability by examining the tolerance

    levels of financial institutions. The examination is conducted with different types of shocks, under

    various economic conditions and with different monetary policy responses. In the case of Bank

    Indonesia, the stress test methods (both static and dynamic) are developed internally or by other

    central banks or institutions with the necessary adjustments for domestic conditions. The methods are

    continuously verified and improved according to developments in the domestic condition, policies

    and regulations to ensure better outcomes. The results of the analysis are published regularly in the

    Financial Stability Review (FSR).

    Table 1. Financial Soundness Indicators

    Economic Growth?Aggregated growth rate?Sectoral slumpsBalance of Payment?Current account deficit?FX reserve adequacy?External debt (incl. maturity structure)?Terms of trade?Composition and maturity of capital flowsInflation?Volatility in inflationInterest and exchange rates?Volatility of interest and exchange rates? Level of domestic interest rates?Exchange rate sustainability?Exchange rate guaranteesContagion effect?Trade spillovers?Financial market correlationOther Factors?Directed lending and investment?Government resource to banking system?Arrears in the economy

    Capital Adequacy?Aggregated capital ratio; Freq. distribution of CARAsset QualityLending institution? Sectoral credit concentration? Foreign currency-denominated lending? Connected lending; NPL and provision; etc.Borrowing entity? Debt-equity ratios; Corporate profitability; etc.Management)Growth in the number of financial institutions; etc.Earnings? RoA, RoE, Income and Expense ratios, etc.Liquidity? Central bank credit to fin institutions; LDR;maturity

    structure of assets and liabilities;Sensitivity to market risk? FX risk; interest rate risk; equity price risk; etc.Market-based indicators? Market prices of financial instruments; credit ratings,

    sovereign yield spread; et.

    Macroeconomic IndicatorsAggregated Micro-prudential Indicators

    Economic Growth?Aggregated growth rate?Sectoral slumpsBalance of Payment?Current account deficit?FX reserve adequacy?External debt (incl. maturity structure)?Terms of trade?Composition and maturity of capital flowsInflation?Volatility in inflationInterest and exchange rates?Volatility of interest and exchange rates? Level of domestic interest rates?Exchange rate sustainability?Exchange rate guaranteesContagion effect?Trade spillovers?Financial market correlationOther Factors?Directed lending and investment?Government resource to banking system?Arrears in the economy

    Capital Adequacy?Aggregated capital ratio; Freq. distribution of CARAsset QualityLending institution? Sectoral credit concentration? Foreign currency-denominated lending? Connected lending; NPL and provision; etc.Borrowing entity? Debt-equity ratios; Corporate profitability; etc.Management)Growth in the number of financial institutions; etc.Earnings? RoA, RoE, Income and Expense ratios, etc.Liquidity? Central bank credit to fin institutions; LDR;maturity

    structure of assets and liabilities;Sensitivity to market risk? FX risk; interest rate risk; equity price risk; etc.Market-based indicators? Market prices of financial instruments; credit ratings,

    sovereign yield spread; et.

    Macroeconomic IndicatorsAggregated Micro-prudential Indicators

    (Evans et.al, Macroprudential Indicators of Financial System

    Soundness, IMF Occasional Paper No.192, 2000.)

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    4.2.1 Surveillance on the Financial Institutions and Markets

    This area covers the analysis and assessment of banking, non-bank financial institutions(including insurance companies, pension funds, pawn shops, mutual funds, and leasing companies),

    financial and capital markets. Financial institutions and markets have a critical role in the

    development of macroeconomic and financial system stability, thus a deeper and thorough

    assessment and analysis of this area is crucial in promoting the stability of the financial system.

    The main function of financial institutions is to channel financial transactions, or establish an

    intermediary function, between lenders and borrowers, and provide financial services. While the

    financial market is the place for lenders and borrowers to trade financial contracts directly, the

    banking system in Indonesia dominates the financial sector, accounting for 80% of the system. Hence

    risks arising from the banking system have the high potential transfer to non-bank financial

    institutions and disrupt the financial markets, impacting financial system stability. To prevent this

    from happening, it is essential to identify risks with the potential to transfer instability.

    Even though non-bank financial institutions only account for around 20% of the total, there is

    the possibility for risks to be transfer red from this sector to the banking system or financial markets.

    A case in point was the mass redemption of mutual funds in mid-2005 which mostly made use of

    banks as their marketing agents. Risks arising from the development in financial markets may also be

    transferred to and influence the banking system, such as a new capital market instrument adversely

    affecting the balance sheet of the banking system.

    In the case of Indonesia, banking supervision is under the authorisation of Bank Indonesia,

    thus data and information related to banking sector is gathered internally or directly from banks.

    Meanwhile, the supervision of non-bank financial institutions and capital market is under the

    authorisation of the Ministry of Finance (Capital Market and Financial Institution Supervisory

    Agency) and data and information for surveillance activities are gathered from the Ministry of

    Finance, and also other sources such as newspapers or financial magazines and other publications.

    Another approach is coordination with the market player, association, academics and experts or by

    conducting surveys. Meanwhile, non-regulatory central banks acquires data and information fromrelated authorities through coordination and from other external sources, such as in the Reserve Bank

    of Australia which depends heavily on data from the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority.

    Financial indicators used as measurement factors in assessing the condition and development of the

    institutions and markets and analyse the potential risk to the financial stability are stipulated in Table

    28.

    8FSI specified by the IMF

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    Risk management is one approach applicable to assess the condition and outlook of the

    financial institutions and industry, which includes credit risk, market risk, liquidity risk, and

    operational risk. Other risk factors are legal risk, strategic risk, and reputation risk, which have stronginfluence on the performance of individual institutions. Bank Indonesia applies this approach along

    with other assessments regarding the banks capital and profitability. Most of the banking ratios used

    are excerpted from the CAMELS ratio. For instance, one indicator to assess the level of credit risk is

    non-performing loan ratio (NPL). A higher ratio indicates a higher potential of credit risk disrupting

    the financial system stability, should the authorities not take any action and policies to prevent the

    likelihood of instability to emerge. Moreover, to supplement the indicator, Bank Indonesia will

    evaluate banks NPL by its economic sector, type, region, debtors, and currency, in order to identify

    the source of risk.

    Stress testing is mainly applied to banking institutions, and in particular, to assess the ability

    of banks capital to absorb unexpected losses originating from adverse macroeconomic conditions,

    such as devaluation or revaluation of domestic currency against hard currency, increased or decreased

    of central bank rates, increase of NPLs, and the impact of flight to quality to banks liquidity. These

    stress tests may be categorised as tests for market risks, credit risks, and liquidity risks.

    The analysis and assessment of the financial indicators and risk management is carried out

    regularly, on a monthly or a quarterly basis. In the case of Bank Indonesia, the analyses are

    conducted monthly, while some of the stress tests are conducted quarterly. Tests for the banking

    sector are usually conducted monthly as banks submit their bank reports to Bank Indonesia also on a

    monthly basis. However, regular analyses and assessments of non-bank financial institutions, capital

    and financial markets are carried out quarterly. The analysis output is extended in the weekly report,

    monthly or quarterly Board Paper and FSR.

    4.2.2 Surveillance on the Markets Infrastructure

    The payment system, a critical part of market infrastructure, plays a vital role in promoting

    financial system stability. Failure to settle or deadlocks have the potential to create instability, thus

    making an agreed effective mechanism necessary. This includes the involvement of the settlementsystem authority to maintain the confidence of the intermediation function of the financial system.

    Bank Indonesia is the authority for payment system activities and hence data and information

    regarding the payment system is gathered internally. However, the evaluation is not carried out by the

    Financial System Stability Unit in Bank Indonesia, but rather by another Department which will

    submit quarterly reports on the development of payment system to the FSS Unit. The same case also

    applies at the Reserve Bank of Australia where the analysis is not the focus of the Unit, but rather,

    part of a separate Department.

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    Meanwhile, broad areas of domestic finance to be analysed can be classified into various

    parts, such as household and corporate balance sheets, household and corporate indebtedness,

    housing and personal loans, household and corporate finances, house and commercial property prices,unemployment rates, foreign debts, government bonds, inflation rates, interest rates, and foreign

    exchange policies.

    An extensive example of household assessment by the Reserve Bank of Australia may

    broaden the understanding of its importance. Household is a big focus for Australia since its

    indebtedness is currently among the largest in the world and accounts for more then 50% of the

    banking systems loan portfolio. Some areas to be analysed include household balance sheets to

    gauge housing market activity, the level of household sector borrowing, and investor sentiments.

    Meanwhile, some leading indicators of household stress are employment, credit cards, and

    bankruptcies. There are ratios to gauge the level of household indebtedness and sustainability, such as

    (i) Household debt to household disposable income, (ii) Household interest payment to household

    disposable income; (iii) Household gearing; and (iv) House prices to household income. The

    unsustainable level of household debt may create a potential for a snap-back in consumption, thus

    having implications for the macro-economy which may extend to the financial system. The regular

    analysis and assessment of the impact of development in domestic finance is carried out regularly and

    presented in the FSR.

    Table 2. Financial Soundness Indicator on NBFI & Real Sector

    1. Non-bank Financial Institutions

    ? Assets to total financial system assets

    ? Assets to GDP

    2. Corporate sector

    ? Total debt to equity

    ? Return on equity (earnings before interest and taxes to average equity)

    ? Earnings before interest and taxes to interest and principle expenses

    ? Corporate net foreign exchange exposure to equity

    ? Number of applications for protection from creditors

    3. Households

    ? Households debt to GDP

    ? Households debt service and principle payments to income

    4. Real estate markets

    ? Real estate prices

    ? Residential real estate loans to total loans

    ? Commercial real estate loans to total loans

    Aggregate Indicators

    1. Non-bank Financial Institutions

    ? Assets to total financial system assets

    ? Assets to GDP

    2. Corporate sector

    ? Total debt to equity

    ? Return on equity (earnings before interest and taxes to average equity)

    ? Earnings before interest and taxes to interest and principle expenses

    ? Corporate net foreign exchange exposure to equity

    ? Number of applications for protection from creditors

    3. Households

    ? Households debt to GDP

    ? Households debt service and principle payments to income

    4. Real estate markets

    ? Real estate prices

    ? Residential real estate loans to total loans

    ? Commercial real estate loans to total loans

    Aggregate Indicators

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    4.2.4 The Surveillance on International Finance

    The international financial system is increasingly moving to one that is more liberal,integrated and global. These circumstances may have been associated with changes in the nature of

    contagion risk. Financia l institutions distribute capital through markets from regions with

    unattractive yields to those with attractive ones. During normal circumstances, these links will

    strengthen financial integration. However, under abnormal conditions, they increase risks within the

    financial system.

    Understanding the impact of a distressed financial system on other financial systems is an

    important aspect of contagion risk, particularly in a distress situation (Lindgren, Garcia and Saal,

    1996). The Asian crisis of 1996-1997 gives valuable insights, demonstrating that distress in one or

    several financial systems will be transmitted to other financial systems as there are financial linkages

    across institutions. Contagion occurs when a financial systems exposures to a distress financial

    system leave them vulnerable to liquidity problems, losses and in severe conditions, failure. The

    severity of contagion effects depends on how important the affected financial systems are to the

    economy. Therefore, contagion between financial systems is a crucial element of systemic risk.

    Disruptions to a financial system may arise at the macroeconomic levels, such as oil price

    shocks, technological innovations and policy imbalances that affect the whole financial system

    (Houben, Kakes and Schinasi, 2004). Furthermore, at the microeconomic level, they may come from

    the failure of large companies which weakens market confidence and creates imbalances.

    Additionally, there are exogenous disturbances which also should be monitored, such as a sudden

    withdrawal of capital inflows, trade restrictions removals, political events (including terrorist acts and

    wars) and natural disasters (earthquakes, floods).

    The surveillance process will cover all these sources of risks and vulnerabilities, which

    require systematic monitoring of individual parts of the financial system (financial markets,

    institutions and infrastructure) and the real economy (households, firms, the public sector). The

    analysis must also take into account cross-sector and cross-border linkages, because contagions often

    arise from a combination of weaknesses from different sources. The financial soundness indicators

    are sovereign yield spreads, balance of payments items, interest and exchange rates, and oil prices.

    Other than surveillance, research in this area will be beneficial as well, for example,

    examining the impact of oil price hikes on the banking industry. Macro-stress testing shows how

    vulnerable a financial institution is due to possible changes in economic conditions (oil price hikes).

    The variables are Bank Loan Loss Provisions, GDP, Inflation, central banks rates, foreign exchange,

    gasoline prices, diesel fuel prices.

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    4.2.5 Products and Reports of Financial System Stability

    The work of the Financial System Stability Unit is becoming increasingly more extensive and

    over time covers related components. Initially it was limited to the banking industry but the scope has

    widened to cover non-bank financial institutions and financial soundness counterparties, such as

    households and corporates.

    The reports are produced regularly, according to what is deemed customary by each central

    bank, which may range from weekly, monthly, quarterly, to semi-annual or annual time frames. In

    general, most central banks with financial stability function, publish their assessment in the Financial

    Stability Review (FSR), either semi-annually or annually. The general structure and comparisons of

    FSR among central banks are summarised as follows 9.

    UK (BoE)Finland

    (BoF)Austria

    (ANB)Brazil (BCB)

    Australia(RBA)

    Singapore(MAS)

    Hong Kong(HKMA)

    Korea (BoK)Indonesia

    (BI)

    ? Summary/Overview v v v v v v v v v

    ? Reports

    ? Economic development andoutlook

    v v v v v

    ? Domestic finance v v v v v v v v

    ? International finance v v CEE countries v v v v

    ? Non bank financial

    institution

    Insurance v v Insurance v v

    ? Financial/Capital markets v v v v v v v

    ?Banking system Credit risk v v v v v v v v

    ? Financial infrastructure v v v v v v

    ? Special topics/articles v v v v v v v

    FSR Contents

    Comparisons of FSR Structure

    Similarly, the Financial System Stability Bureau at Bank Indonesia is responsible for research

    and surveillance work and it produces regular reports on the development and risks to financial

    stability related areas ranging from financial institutions and markets, market infrastructure, domestic

    finance and international finance. As part of its role in promoting financial stability, Bank Indonesia

    publishes the Financial Stability Review semi-annually which contains research and surveillance

    works on financial stability. In addition, Bank Indonesia is also committed to develop a better

    understanding of financial stability issues by organising regular seminars, workshops, both at

    domestic and international levels.

    5. Coordination and Cooperation

    Given that the promotion of financial system stability is contained within the statutory power

    of various authorities, it is necessary to have good coordination and cooperation among these

    authorities. The purpose of coordination and cooperation is to ensure that each policy issued by the

    9Cihak, Martin, (2006), How Do Central Banks Write on Financial Stability?, IMF Working Paper (WP/06/163)

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    respective authority does no t give rise to negative impacts on financial system stability. The areas of

    coordination and cooperation will usually consist of prompt strategic response to potential instability

    and systemic crises, harmonisation of policy issues, and information sharing.There are different approaches for ensuring coordination and cooperation for financial

    stability. First, the use of interlocking management between the central bank and financial services

    supervisory agency is the model widely applied in the European continent. Second, a joint committee

    consisting of members from the central bank, the financial services supervisory agency, and ministry

    of finance manages routine interagency coordination. The third model is interagency coordination

    and cooperation set out in a Memorandum of Understanding, is used for instance, in the United

    Kingdom and Australia.

    In the context of Indonesia, the manifest coordination and cooperation is the Financial System

    Stability Forum (FSSF). As stipulated in the Memorandum of Understanding on 30 December 2005,

    between the Minister of Finance, the Governor of Bank, the FSF is a venue of coordination and

    information sharing among the authorities (for details, please see Box 3).

    6. Financial Safety Nets and Crisis Management

    Essentially, financial system stability functions carried out by a central bank are two fold -

    crisis prevention and crisis resolution. It is essential that financial system stability is maintained to

    support monetary stability for sustainable economic growth. Although various approaches have been

    pursued for crisis prevention, there is no guarantee that financial crises will not occur. In the event ofa financial crisis, it is necessary to have a procedure for dealing with the crisis and clarifying the roles

    and responsibilities of relevant institutions as well as coordination mechanism amongst them.

    As mentioned above, financial safety nets (FSN) are vital elements for maintaining financial system

    stability. The comprehensive framework for the financial safety nets clearly prescribes the roles and

    responsibilities of each agency and the coordination mechanisms amongst them in the prevention and

    resolution of crisis.

    Principally, a comprehensive FSN framework comprises of four core elements: (i) effective

    and independent supervision; (ii) lender of last resort for normal and systemic crisis periods; (iii) an

    explicit deposit insurance scheme; and (iv) effective crisis management. Generally, the Ministry of

    Finance (MoF) is responsible for developing legislations for the financial sector and bears the fiscal

    cost funds for crises resolution.

    The central bank is responsible for maintaining monetary stability and banking industrys

    soundness (if banking supervision is within the central bank), as well as safety and efficient working

    of the payment system. The Financial Supervision Agency (FSA) is responsible for the soundness of

    the financial industry (in case where the financial or banking supervision is outside the central bank).

    The Deposit Insurance Company is responsible for insuring banks deposits as well as for resolving

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    problem banks. Indonesia for example, has formulated the Indonesian Financial Safety Net (IFSN)

    framework. IFSN is clearly stating the roles, responsibilities and coordination mechanism of FSN

    players namely Ministry of Finance (MoF), Bank Indonesia (BI), and the Deposit InsuranceCompany (DIC). The IFSN policies will be incorporated in the IFSN Law to provide a clear legal

    basis for relevant authorities in performing their respective roles and in coordinating in maintaining

    financial system stability. To ensure an effective coordination amongst relevant authorities, a Joint

    Committee comprising of the Governor of Bank Indonesia, the Finance Minister and the Head of the

    Board of Commissioners of the Deposit Insurance Institution (DIC) was established. In addition, the

    Financial Stability Forum (FSF) comprising executive officers from Bank Indonesia, the Ministry of

    Finance and the Deposit Insurance Institution was also established. Among key responsibilities of the

    FSF is to provide recommendation to the Joint Committee on crisis management policies.

    Box 3. Financial System Stability Forum in Indonesia

    Maintaining stability of the financial system requires concerted efforts from the various authorities. Effective

    coordination and cooperation is urgently required in response to potential instability and systemic crises that

    frequently require mutual policy-making and harmonisation of policy issues. Currently, there are four authorities

    with a focal role in financial sector supervision and the financial safety nets: The Ministry of Finance, Bank

    Indonesia, the Indonesian Securities and Financial Institutions Commission (Bapepam-LK) and DIC. As a vehicle

    of coordination and information sharing among authorities, on 30 December 2005, a joint decree between the

    Minister of Finance, the Governor of Bank Indonesia and the Chairman of DIC was signed. The joint decree sets out

    the establishment of the Financial Stability Forum (FSF).

    The main responsibility of FSF is to provide information and recommendations to the joint committee according to

    the prevailing laws of the Deposit Insurance Company. The committee comprises of the Minister of Finance, Bank

    Indonesia and the Deposit Insurance Company.

    There are four main functions of FSF: a) support the responsibilities of the joint committee in the decision-making

    process for failing banks that has systemic risk; b) coordinate and share information to synchronise prudential rules

    and regulations in the financial sector; c) discuss the issues of financial institutions that has systemic risk based on

    information from the supervisory authority; and d) coordinate initiatives in the financial sector, for instance,

    Indonesian Banking Architecture (IBA), Indonesian Financial Sector Architecture (IFSA) and Financial Sector

    Assessment Program (FSAP).

    FSF consists of a three-tier system: the Steering Forum is responsible for providing direction to the Executive

    Forum with regard to the respective functions of FSF mentioned above. The Steering Forum consists of 7 senior

    officials from the Ministry of Finance, 3 members of the Board of Governors of Bank Indonesia, and 1 senior

    official from DIC.

    The second tier represents the Executive Forum consisting of seven second rank officials from the Ministry of

    Finance, seven second rank officials from Bank Indonesia, and two directors from DIC. The third tier represents the

    Working Group and is made up from officials of the Ministry of Finance, Bank Indonesia and DIC.

    FSF can form various taskforces to manage initiatives and ad-hoc projects such as the Indonesian Financial System

    Architecture (IFSA) and Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). The FSF is expected to improve effective

    coordination between the authorities and, subsequently, bolster efforts to preserve financial system stability.

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    6.1 Lender of Last Resort

    Historical experience suggests that successful lender of last resort (LLR) actions haveprevented panics on numerous occasions (Bordo, 2002). Similarly, Mishkin (2001) argues that the

    central bank can encourage the recovery from financial crisis by providing loan in as lender of the

    last resort. Although there well may be good reasons to maintain ambiguity over the criteria for

    providing liquidity assistance, He (2000) argues that properly designed lending procedures, clearly

    laid-out authority and accountability, as well as disclosures rules, will promote financial stability,

    reduce moral hazard, and protect the lender of last resort from undue political pressure. There are

    important advantages for developing and transitional economies to follow a rule-based approach by

    setting out ex ante, the necessary conditions for support, while maintaining such conditions is not

    sufficient for receiving support. In the same vein, Nakaso (2001) suggests that Japans LLR approach

    has shifted from constructive ambiguity towards increasing policy transparency and accountability.

    6.1.1 Lender of Last Resort in Normal Times

    In normal times, LLR assistance should be based on clearly-defined rules. Transparent LLR

    policies and rules can reduce the probability of self-fulfilling crises, and provide incentives for

    fostering market discipline. It may also reduce political intervention and prevent any biasness

    towards forbearance. LLR in normal times should only be provided for solvent institutions with

    sufficient acceptable collateral while for insolvent banks, stricter resolution measures should be

    applied such as closure. Therefore, there should be a clear and consistent adoption of a bank exit

    policy. Once a deposit insurance scheme has been established, the central bank role in LLR in normal

    times can be reduced to a minimum since the deposit insurance company will provide bridging

    finance in the case where there is a delay in closure process of a failed institution10.

    6.1.2 LLR in Exceptional Circumstances

    In systemic crises, LLR should be an integral part of a well-designed crisis management

    strategy. There should be a systemic risk exception in providing LLR to the banking system.

    Repayment terms may be relaxed to support the implementation of a systemic bank restructuring

    programme. In systemic crises, the disclosure of LLRs operation may become an important tool forcrisis management. The criteria of a systemic crisis will depend on the particular circumstances and

    thus, it is difficult to clearly state this beforehand in a law. However, the regulations on the LLR

    facility should clearly set the guiding principles and specific criteria of a systemic crisis and/or a

    potential bank failure leading to systemic crisis. To ensure an effective decision making process and

    accountability, there should be a clear institutional framework and LLR procedures. Bank Indonesia

    should be responsible for analysing the systemic threats to financial stability while the final decision

    10See Nakaso (2001) for a discussion on the Japanese LLR model.

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    on systemic crises resolution should be made jointly by Bank Indonesia and the Ministry of Finance.

    To ensure accountability, an appropriate documentation audit trail should be maintained.

    While individual frameworks differ from country to country, there is a broad consensus on the

    key considerations for emergency lending during normal and crisis periods (see Box 4) below.

    Box 4. Key Considerations of Emergency Lending

    1. Have in place clearly laid out lending procedures, authority, and accountability.2. Maintain close cooperation and exchange of information between the central bank, the supervisory

    authority (if it is separate from the central bank), the deposit insurance fund (if exist), and the ministryof finance.

    3. Decision to lend to systemically important institutions at the risk of insolvency or without sufficient,acceptable collateral should be made jointly by monetary, supervisory, and the fiscal authority.

    4. Lending to non-systemically institutions, if any, should be only to those institutions that are deemed tobe solvent and with sufficient acceptable collateral.

    5. Lend speedily.6. Lend in domestic currency.7. Lend at the above average market rates.8. Maintain monetary control by engaging effective sterilisation.9. Subject borrowing banks to enhanced supervisory surveillance and restrictions on activities.10.Lend only for short-term, preferably not exceeding three to six months.11.Have a clear exit strategy.

    Additional Requirements for Systemic Crisis

    12.Decision to lend should be an integral part of crisis management strategy and should be made jointly bymonetary, supervisory, and the fiscal authority.

    13.Emergency support operations should be disclosed when such disclosure will not be disruptive tofinancial stability.

    14.Repayment terms may be relaxed to accommodate the implementation of a systemic bank restructuringstrategy.

    15.Emergency support operation should be disclosed when such disclosure will not be disruptive tofinancial stability.

    Source: Dong He (2000) Emergency Liquidity Support Facilities, IMF Working Paper No. 00/79.

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    Box 5. Lender of Last Resort: The Case of Indonesia

    Bank Indonesia in its capacity as lender of the last resort may provide a loan to the Bank to resolve short-termfunding difficulty. Lender of the last resort policy is part of the financial safety net essential to financial

    system stability.

    Based on the Law11

    , BI as lender of last resort can give loans to commercial bank during both normal times

    and systemic crises to solve liquidity problems. In principle the liquidity facility can only be provided to

    solvent bank.

    There are two types lender of the last resort facilities extended by BI to commercial bank as follows:

    (i) The Short-Term Funding Facility (FPJP) extended to Banks experiencing liquidity difficulties at end of day

    (overnight) to resolve liquidity difficulty under normal conditions. Provision of FPJP must be backed by

    liquid, high value collateral provided by the Bank to Bank Indonesia.

    (ii) The Emergency Financing Facility (EFF) for a Problem Bank that is experiencing liquidity difficulty and

    has systemic impact, but still complying with the level of solvency prescribed by Bank Indonesia. The

    extension of the facility is based on a joint decision in a meeting between the Minister of Finance and Bank

    Indonesia and is funded by the Government. The EFF is a facility for addressing systemic impact or risk in an

    emergency in order to prevent and resolve a crisis. However, requirements on solvency and collaterals, with

    several exceptions, are still applicable.

    Therefore, funding for the EFF is charged to the State Budget through issuance of Government Securities. To

    provide assurance of accountability and transparency, the decision making process in determining systemic

    impact or systemic risk and to extend the EFF to a Bank operates by means of a joint decision by the Minister

    of Finance and the Governor of Bank Indonesia. The decision to extend the EFF shall be based on assessment

    of the potential for systemic risk for financial system stability and the negative impact on the economy if theEFF is not extended to the Bank.

    A Minute of Agreement between the Minister of Finance and BIs Governor has been signed regarding

    stipulations and procedures on decision making in handling a problem bank that has systemic impact,

    provision of the emergency financing facility, and financing source from the state budget 12 . For implementing

    guidelines, MoF and BI have launched a regulation concerning EFF for commercial banks that were

    incorporated in Minister of Finance Decree and BI Regulation.

    6.2 Deposit Insurance Scheme

    Experience shows that the deposit insurance scheme is one of the important elements for

    maintaining financial system stability. In general, deposit insurance is aimed at three interrelated

    aspects: (i) to protect deposits, particularly small deposits; (ii) to maintain public confidence in the

    financial system, especially the banking system; and (iii) to maintain financial system stability.

    Essentially, the main objective of deposit insurance is to avoid bank runs. According to the Diamond-

    11

    The Republic of Indonesia Law No. 23 of 1999 regarding Bank Indonesia as was amended by Law No. 3 of 2004,which has been approved by the Peoples Representative on 15 January 2004.12

    The Minutes of Agreement was signed on 17 March 2004,

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    Dybvig model (1983), bank runs are indicated by self-fulfilling prophecy where the deterioration

    of depositors confidence can cause banking crisis. The problem is caused by two factors: (i) there is

    asymmetric information between depositors and bank management; and (ii) depositors incapabilityof assessing bank soundness. In addition, banks are also vulnerable because liquid assets are usually

    less than liquid liabilities.

    Thompson (2004) gives five arguments for deposit insurance: (i) to maintain public

    confidence in banking systems (Diamond and Dybvig, 1983); (ii) the insured deposit can provide

    options for small depositors, mobilising savings for investment; (iii) if the supervisory authority is

    under political pressure to bail-out depositors (where implicit guarantee is adopted), an explicit

    deposit insurance can help to limit insured liabilities by determining ex-ante what is insured and what

    is not; (iv) deposit insurance will enable small banks to compete with big banks; and (v) an explicit

    deposit insurance makes it easier for supervisory authority to supervise banks more intensively.

    Garcia (1999, 2000) identified the best practices of explicit systems of deposit insurance

    based on surveys in 68 countries. These include good infrastructure, avoidance of moral hazard,

    avoidance of adverse selection, reduc tion of agency problems and ensuringe financial integrity and

    credibility. Based on a study of deposit insurance systems in Asian countries, Choi (2001) argues that

    it is reasonable to establish and maintain an explicit and limited deposit insurance system in order to

    prevent further possible financial crisis. Pangestu and Habir (2002) suggest that deposit insurance

    schemes should be designed on two key aspects. First, it should provide incentive s to better

    performing banks by linking the annual premium payment to their risk profile. Second, it should be

    self- funded in order to foster market discipline and reduce the fiscal burden.

    In order to prevent a disturbance on the banking system, Garcia (2000) suggests that ideally, a

    partial guarantee should not be introduced until: (i) the domestic and international crisis has passed;

    (ii) the economy has begun to recover; (iii) the macro-economic environment is supportive of bank

    soundness; (iv) the banking system has been restructured successfully; (v) the authorities possess, and

    are ready to use, strong remedial and exit policies for bank that in the future are perceived by the

    public to be unsound; (vi) appropriate accounting, disclosure, and legal systems are in place; (vii) a

    strong prudential regulatory framework is in operation; and (viii) public confidence has beenrestored. Currently, it would seem that Indonesia does not have all these requirements.

    Demirguc-Kunt and Kane (2001) suggest that countries should first assess and remedy the

    weaknesses of their international and supervisory environments before adopting an explicit deposit

    insurance system. In line with this, Wesaratchakit (2002) reported that Thailand decided to adopt a

    gradual transition from a blanket guarantee to a limited explicit deposit insurance scheme. It was

    considered that there are some preconditions that should be met particularly the stability of banking

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    system and the economy as a whole, effectiveness of regulation and supervision as well as public

    understanding before shifting to an explicit limited deposit insurance system.

    It is important to prepare a contingency plan before removing the blanket guarantee in order

    to anticipate worst-case scenarios such as a loss in public confidence. If such conditions occur, the

    central bank may have to extend liquidity support to illiquid but solvent banks. In addition, there

    should be a clear legal framework for the deposit insurance scheme. To reduce moral hazards and to

    induce market discipline, the authorities should impose tough sanctions on financial institutions and

    players which violate rules and create problems for the banking system and also ensure that law

    enforcement is in place.

    Before the 1997 crisis, none of the crisis hit countries with the exception of the Philippines,

    which was least affected by the crisis, had an explicit deposit insurance scheme. As part of their

    efforts to strengthen the financial safety nets and financial stability, some East Asian countries such

    as South Korea, Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand, have been shifted from blanket guarantee

    adopted as response to financial crisis - to an explicit and limited deposit insurance scheme.

    There is an issue of how depositors will react to the introduction of a limited scheme. In

    January 2001, Korea replaced its blanket guarantee with a limited deposit insurance system with an

    insurance limit of 50 million won per depositor per institution. There was a noticeable migration of

    funds from lower rated to sounder banks. Also, large depositors actively split their deposits into

    several accounts in banks and non-bank financial institutions. However, there has been no bank runs

    in the Korean financial system as a whole. Interestingly, there is no significant deposit migration

    (flight to quality from perceived bad banks to perceived sound banks) in Indonesia since the gradual

    adoption of a limited deposit insurance in Indonesia.

    However, as was argued by Batunanggar (2003), the Indonesian case suggests that a very

    limited deposit insurance scheme was not effective in preventing bank runs during the 1997 crisis.

    This was due to the fact that large deposits (denomination of more than Rp 20 millions) which was

    uninsured, accounted for about 80% of total deposits. Others such as Furman and Stiglitz (1998),

    Stiglitz (1999,2002), Radelet and Sachs (1998), argue that if the blanket guarantee had beenintroduced earlier, before some banks had been liquidated, the damage and costs of the crisis would

    have been much less.

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    Box 5. Shifting from Blanket Guarantee to Limited Deposit Insurance Scheme:

    The Case of Indonesia

    The government blanket guarantee programme, which came into effect because of the crisis that started in

    1998, has indeed been successful in recovering public confidence in the banking sector. However, research

    shows that the blanket guarantee has spurred moral hazard by bank managers and customers that has the

    potential to create crises in the long-run.

    Against this backdrop, Indonesia established the Deposit Insurance Corporation (DIC) to provide an explicit

    and limited deposit insurance scheme. DIC was established based on Law No. 24 of 2004, with two primary

    functions: (i) to provide an explicit limited deposit insurance scheme up to a particular amount; and (ii) to

    carry out the resolution of failing banks.

    Membership of DIC is mandatory for all commercial and rural banks (BPR) in Indonesia. Insurance coverage

    includes demand deposits, certificate of deposits, time deposits and other equally defined deposits.

    In order to prevent a negative impact on financial stability, the implementation of the deposit insurance

    scheme will be made in stages. Up to March 2005, the liabilities of banks will still be guaranteed by DIC.

    After that time, starting March 2007, deposit insurance will be limited up to Rp100 million per customer per

    bank.

    In the case of a bank failure, DIC will insure customer deposits up to a certain amount while, noninsured

    deposits will be resolved through the bank liquidation process. DIC is expected to preserve public confidence

    in the Indonesian banking industry.

    The management of DIC is based on a two-tier system with a Board of Commissioners and Executive Officers.

    The Board of Commissioners consists of two ex-officio staff (one BI senior official and one senior member ofstaff from the Ministry of Finance) and two non ex-officio staff (external). Bank Indonesia is supportive of

    DIC and has already assigned some of its staff members to the institution.

    To ensure effective coordination and information exchange mechanism between Bank Indonesia and DIC, a

    Memorandum of Understanding is being drawn up. As was previously mentioned, the deposit insurance is

    only one financial safety nets and to be effectively implemented, it must be supported by other nets, especially

    an effective banking supervision.

    However, systemic bank runs in Indonesia at the outset of the 1997 crisis cannot be attributed

    solely to the absence of a blanket guarantee. Inconsistency and the lack of transparency in bank

    liquidation policies of the authorities and political uncertainties towards the end of Suhartos regime,

    all played a part, as documented by Lindgren et al. (1999) and Scott (2002). The introduction of the

    blanket guarantee programme at the outset of the crisis may be necessary to prevent larger potential

    economic and social costs of a systemic crisis (Lindgren et al. 1999). However, the scheme should be

    replaced as soon as possible with one that is more appropriate to normal conditions and which does

    not create moral hazard (Batunanggar, 2003).

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    7. Key Challenges and the Way Forward

    Experience has shown that financial crises are very difficult to predict. Even though they areoften repeated, there are no two similar crises. In addition, resolving financial crises are not only very

    difficult but also very costly. The saying that prevention is better that cure holds very true. The

    resilience of the financial system to absorb a crisis once it occur s, must be strengthened through

    various strategies and policy measures as discussed in this Paper.

    Capability in identifying, measuring and monitoring risks to the financial system should be

    continuously improved. Coordination and cooperation both on domestic, regional and international

    levels should also be further developed in order to prevent and to resolve financial crises. In this

    regard, areas that could be further explored are joint researches on specific topics on financial

    stability, development of tools for surveillance such as macro stress-tests and early warning systems,

    establishment of a regional forum on financial stability.

    One of the best ways to understand the causes of and management of a financial cr isis is by

    learning from experiences of other countries. By promoting more effective coordination and

    cooperation both at the domestic level as well as at the regional and international level, we will

    hopefully gain better understanding and capability in improving financial stability and managing

    financial crisis once it occurs.

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