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PRODUCTIONS/OPERATIONS MANAGEMENTCopyright © 2005 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.
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Decision Theory
Decision Theory represents a general approach to decision making which is suitable for a wide range of operations management decisions, including:
product and
service design
Decision Theory
Decision Theory
A set of possible future conditions exists that will have a bearing on the results of the decision
A list of alternatives for the manager to choose from
A known payoff for each alternative under each possible future condition
Decision Theory Elements
Identify possible future conditions called states of nature
Develop a list of possible alternatives, one of which may be to do nothing
Determine the payoff associated with each alternative for every future condition
Decision Theory Process
If possible, determine the likelihood of each possible future condition
Evaluate alternatives according to some decision criterion and select the best alternative
Decision Theory Process (Cont’d)
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Causes of Poor Decisions
Suboptimization
The result of different departments each attempting to reach a solution that is
optimum for that department
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Risk - Environment in which certain future events have probable outcomes
Uncertainty - Environment in which it is impossible to assess the likelihood of various future events
Decision Environments
Decision Theory
Maximin - Choose the alternative with the best of the worst possible payoffs
Maximax - Choose the alternative with the best possible payoff
Laplace - Choose the alternative with the best average payoff of any of the alternatives
Minimax Regret - Choose the alternative that has the least of the worst regrets
Decision Making under Uncertainty
Figure 5S.1
Decision Theory
A manager must decide on the size of a video arcade to construct. The manager has narrowed the choices to two: large or small. Information has been collected on payoffs, and a decision tree has been constructed. Analyze the decision tree and determine which initial alternative (build small or build large) should be chosen in order to maximize expected monetary value.
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Expected Value of Perfect Information
Approach I : Expected value of perfect information: the difference between the expected payoff under certainty and the expected payoff under risk
Expected value of
Sensitivity analysis: determine the range of probability for which an alternative has the best expected payoff
Example S-8