cuba embargo affirmative - samford 2013

8/10/2019 Cuba Embargo Affirmative - Samford 2013

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Cuban Embargo Afrmative



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1ACObservation 1 is Inherency:

The US is maintaining its embargo on Cuba despite a history o aiureChapman !"1#-13 [Steve, writer for the Chicago Tribune, has been a fellow at theAmerican Academy in erlin and the !oover "nstitution at Stanford #niversity, andhas served on the $isiting Committee of the #niversity of Chicago %aw School, &"t's

Time to (nd the #)S) (mbargo of Cuba,* htt+reason)comarchives2.13./10its-time-to-end-the-us-embargo-of-cuba

The #)S) embargo of Cuba has been in eect since 142, with no end in sight ) 5idel

Castro's government has somehow managed to outlast the Soviet #nion, 6ontgomery

7ard, rotary-dial tele+hones and 1. American +residents)8 Creative CommonsThe boycott adheres to the

stubborn logic of governmental action) "t was created to solve a +roblem the e9istence of acommunist government . miles o our shores) "t failed to solve that +roblem) ut its failure is ta:en as+roof of its everlasting necessity)8 "f there is any lesson to be drawn from this dismal e9+erience, though, it's that

the economic ;uarantine has been either 1< grossly ineectual or 2< +ositivelyhel+ful to the regime)8 The =rst would not be sur+rising, if only because economic sanctions almost neverwor:) "ra; under Saddam !ussein> ?o+e) "ran> Still waiting) ?orth @orea> on't ma:e me laugh)8 7hat ma:es this

embargo even less +romising is that we have so little hel+ in trying to a++ly the s;ueeBe)?early 2.. countries allow trade with Cuba ) Tourists from Canada and (uro+e oc: there in searchof beaches, nightlife and !avana cigars, bringing hard currency with them) So even if starving the country intosubmission could wor:, Cuba hasn't starved and won't anytime soon)8 ?or is it im+lausible to sus+ect that theboycott has been the best thing that ever ha++ened to the Castro brothers, +roviding them a sca+egoat for thenation's many economic ills) The im+lacable hostility of the Dan:ee im+erialists also serves to align Cubannationalism with Cuban communism) (ven Cubans who don't li:e Castro may not relish being told what to do by thesu+er+ower ne9t door)8 ?ormally it is no business of the federal government where +rivate citiBens want to s+end

their vacation time) ut among those who claim to s+ea: for the Cuban e9ile community, it is anathema for anyoneto visit the island as long as the communists hold +ower) Sen) 6arco Eubio, E-5la), was among those lambasting thecou+le for daring to venture where he doesn't want them to go)8 Eubio claimed that +eo+le who ma:e visits to CubaFeither don't realiBe or don't care that they're essentially funding the regime's systematic tram+ling of +eo+le'shuman rights)F Such activity, he said, F+rovides money to a cruel, re+ressive and murderous regime)F 8 That may betrue) ut #)S) law allows Americans to visit the island according to certain rules enforced by the Treasury

e+artment, and some 0..,... +eo+le from the #)S) go each year) The rules for cultural tri+s weretightened last year after Eubio gri+ed that they were too la9)8 FThe tri+ was handled according to a standardlicensing +rocedure for federally a++roved '+eo+le to +eo+le' cultural tours to the island,F re+orted Eeuters, Fandthe +ower cou+le received no s+ecial treatment, said Academic Arrangements Abroad, the ?ew Dor:-based grou+that organiBed the tri+)F8 7hen it comes to sending money to a Fcruel, re+ressive, murderous regime,F Eubio'soutrage is strangely selective) The same accusation could be laid against anyone who travels to China, $ietnam orurma -- all of which are o+en to American visitors, as far as 7ashington is concerned) 8 Gur willingness to tradewith them stems from the belief that economic im+rovement and contact with outsiders will foster liberaliBationrather than retard it) ut the o++osite a++roach is su++osed to +roduce this :ind of +rogress in Cuba)

Advantage 1 is the Economy:

The US economy is in troube" $e%re on the verge o a doubedip&eddy !"'1-13 [Sudee+, The 7all Street Hournal, &(conomic 7oes Abroad ode "llfor the #)S),*

http://reason.com/archives/2013/04/15/its-time-to-end-the-us-embargo-of-cuba






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htt+online)wsI)comarticleS1...1/2/12JKKJ323001../0JK/34K43K4.412.32)html

Troubles overseas are threatening the #)S) recovery for the fourth year in a row) This time it'swea:ening economies abroad, rather than tumbling =nancial mar:ets, signaling turbulence ahead) 8 #)S) e9+orts ofgoods to the (uro+ean #nion are declining outright) Lrowth in overall #)S) e9+orts has been s+uttering for months,after a three-year +ostrecession surge) And maIor #)S) com+anies are re+orting increasingly dour overseas outloo:stied to the recession-+lagued euro Bone and slowing growth in other leading economies such as China)8 The

renewed fears of a global slowdown come after months of ho+e that a strongerrecovery was =nally ta:ing sha+e)8 (nlarge "mage8 F(very now and then you see a glimmer, thingsseem to im+rove, and then a little bit of bad news comes,F 7orld an: chief economist @aushi: asu said as theworld's =nance ministers and central ban:ers gathered in 7ashington in recent days to discuss how to revivegrowth)8 The emerging troubles today are dierent from the scares of the +ast three years) 8 "n 2.1., 2.11 and

2.12, e9istential fears of a euro-Bone colla+se s+oo:ed investors around the world) 7hile #)S) e;uitymar:ets rose substantially over that +eriod, they +eriodically too: shar+ slides that frightenedbusinesses and weighed down con=dence) es+ite the =nancial tremors, underlying economicgrowth remained moderate in the #)S), and most maIor euro-Bone economies muddled through the early years oftheir crisis) #)S) e9+orts to (uro+e e9+anded des+ite the clouds over the continent, hel+ing to +ro+el the #)S)recovery) 5inancial mar:ets have been on a tear since the (uro+ean Central an: vowed last summer to +rotect theeuro currency) #)S) stoc:s, as well, have Ium+ed 10M since last ?ovember, buoyed in +art by the 5ederal Eeserve'saggressive bond-buying +rogram)8 ut maIor economies are languishing) The euro Bone's recession is stretching out

longer, China faces new fears of a slowdown and worries have re-emerged about a Fs+ring swoonF in the #)S)8 FThe+ic:u+ in =nancial mar:ets is clearly not translating into a sustained +ic:u+ in growth and Iobs,F "nternational6onetary 5und 6anaging irector Christine %agarde said last wee:) The "65 +roIects the global economy wille9+and Iust 3)3M this year, largely unchanged from 2.12) "t e9+anded 0)2M in 2.1., the =rst full year of recovery,and /M in 2.11)8 Signs of global wea:ness are showing u+ across cor+orate America)8 Leneral (lectric Co) L(N1)1M on 5riday said (uro+e's troubles weighed down its results during the =rst ;uarter, des+ite +osting higheroverall +ro=ts) F7e +lanned for (uro+e to be similar to 2.12Odown againObut it was even wea:er than we hade9+ected,F Chief (9ecutive Herey "mmelt said) The com+any's industrial revenue fell 1JM in (uro+e, while otherbusinesses there also struggled)8 5alling commodity +ricesOone result of slowing growthOhave +ut a dent in ordersfor mining e;ui+ment that other manufacturers are receiving) The e;ui+ment giant Cater+illar "nc) CAT N2)1KM said5riday that its retail sales of machines fell 11M in the =rst ;uarter from the same +eriod a year earlier as demandcooled in maIor mar:ets) The com+any's sales in the Asia-Paci=c region alone were down 2/M during the ;uarter) 8

The #)S) has its own share of homegrown +roblems adding to the overseasslowdown) An increase in +ayroll ta9es in Hanuary is restraining consumers, hurtingretail sales and hammering con=dence) 5ederal budget cuts that started last month

are e9+ected to dent growth in the coming months as government wor:ers ta:e furloughs andcontractors cut Iobs)8 The latest hits to #)S) consumers and businesses ma:e overseas customers more im+ortantfor #)S) com+anies) ut economic trouble in the euro Bone is ricocheting around the world and hurting other areas,such as China, which is also seeing e9+orts to (uro+e struggle) That is contributing to China's wea:ness and limitinghow much Chinese consumers and businesses might buy from American com+anies) 8 5or 6conald's Cor+), 6CN.)/2M the world's to+-selling restaurant chain, sales have sli++ed at stores in China, (uro+e and the #)S) astrouble has s+read around the globe) Sales at #)S) and (uro+ean locations o+en at least 13 months fell more than1M in the =rst ;uarter, while they dro++ed /)4M in China)8 6conald's C(G on Thom+son on 5riday blamed thecom+any's troubles in +art on (uro+e's F+ersistently high unem+loyment rates and ongoing austerity measuresFalong with FsoftF economic conditions in Asia)8 !e said #)S) sales faced Fsigni=cant headwinds,F including waveringconsumer con=dence)8 #ntil recently, many #)S) investors and com+anies had loo:ed +ast those ris:s to the #)S)

economy by focusing on stronger growth abroad) That sentiment could be challenged soon) 7hile stoc:mar:ets and economies fre;uently diverge, they can't move in o++osite directions forever)

(iting trade restrictions is the best $ay to save the USeconomy)essamore %1' [7)(), contributor to "nde+endent $oter ?etwor:, a news service+roviding +olitical analysis and democracy-based news, &Pro+osal EevitaliBe #S(conomy by (asing 5oreign Sanctions,* J-2/-12, htt+ivn)us2.12.J2/+ro+osal-revitaliBe-us-economy-by-easing-foreign-sanctions

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323551004578436863860612032.html


http://ivn.us/2012/07/24/proposal-revitalize-us-economy-by-easing-foreign-sanctions/








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(asing economic sanctions on foreign countries li:e Cuba and ?orth @orea could be a+otential solution to the struggling #S economy while fostering internationalcoo+eration and good will abroad)8 (conomic sanctions, or embargoes, are a ste+ below war withanother country and a ste+ above normal, collaborative di+lomacy) They re+resent the use or threat of military or+olice action to enforce a bloc:ade against a countryQs economy or +arts of its economy, +reventing the free tradeof goods and services between the +eo+le and businesses of the target nation and those of the nation or nationsenforcing the embargo)8 Sanctions are used to +ressure governments into ado+ting certain +olicy reforms desired

by the sanctioning country, and currently the #nited States has sanctions in +lace against "ran, ?orth

@orea, and its neighbor, Cuba, among others) The +roblem is that in unambiguous cost-bene=t terms, the

results show that sanctions are massive +olicy failures, ineective at accom+lishing their obIectives,and humanitarian disasters)8 According to a year 2... #?-commissioned re+ort for instance8 &The theory behindeconomic sanctions is that economic +ressure on civilians will translate into +ressure on the government forchange) This theory is ban:ru+t both legally and +ractically)*8 The 5ree Trade Petition to the L2. Conferencecirculated by the Atlas (conomic Eesearch 5oundation com+ellingly sums u+ the failure of trade barriers as

instruments of foreign +olicy8 &A great deal of rigorous em+irical research su++orts the +ro+osition that trade+romotes +eace) Perha+s the most tragic e9am+le of what ha++ens when that insight is ignored is 7orld 7ar"")8 "nternational trade colla+sed by J. +ercent between 12 and 132, in no small +art because of AmericaQs 13.Smoot-!awley tari and the retaliatory taris of other nations) (conomist 6artin 7olf notes that Rthis colla+se intrade was a huge s+ur to the search for autar:y and %ebensraum, most of all for Lermany and Ha+an)Q8 The mostghastly and deadly wars in human history soon followed)8 y reducing war, trade saves lives)*8 arriers tointernational trade fail to +roduce desired +olicy outcomes, tend to rally a countryQs +eo+le around their re+ressivegovernments against what they +erceive as #S hostility, lead to +overty and starvation among the +oorest classesof targeted nations, foster ill-will against the #nited States, are historically +recursors to more o+en militaryhostility, and are even bad for the economy of the sanctioning country 8 According to data from the 7hite !ouseQse9+ort council in 2...8 &the #nited States has im+osed more than /. trade sanctions against about three-doBencountries since 138 those sanctions have cost American e9+orters 10 billion to 1 billion in lost annualsales overseas and caused long-term damage to #)S) com+aniesU lost mar:et share and re+utations abroad as

unreliable su++liers)*8 6oving to ease sanctions on foreign countries and establish +ermanent normal

trade relations with countries currently under economic bloc:ade could go a long way toward fostering

international good will while o+ening u+ valuable mar:ets and economic o++ortunities for trade, stimulating

growth and Iob creation in the #S) "t would be li:e a multi-billion dollar economicstimulus +ac:age that ta9+ayers wouldnQt have to +ay for and the #S governmentwouldnQt have to borrow money to =nance, and its eects wouldnQt be tem+orary,they would be +ermanent , systemic, and structural)8 That stimulus of +otentiallytens of billions of dollars would come in year after year by way of free and

undirected economic trade between the +eo+le of the #nited States and those of nations currently under

an embargo) The structural and systemic nature of the +olicy reform, rather than a tem+orary shot in the arm li:e

a giant borrow-and-s+end a++ro+riation from Congress Ve)g) 2..Ws K.. billion &Stimulus Pac:age*<, would+ermanently shift economic behavior, inIect some con=dence in Iittery mar:ets,allow ca+ital to ow to investments that will be the most +roductive, and create Iobsthat are more sustainable over the long term)

Econ decine causes $ars" studies prove&oya *1+ Virector of CTE Hedediah, irector of Coo+erative Threat Eeduction U #)S) e+artment of efense,&(conomic "ntegration, (conomic Signaling and the Problem of (conomic Crises*, (conomics of 7ar and Peace(conomic, %egal and Political Pers+ectives, (d) Loldsmith and rauer, +) 213-210<

%ess intuitive is how +eriods of economic decline may increase the li:elihood of e9ternal conict) Political scienceliterature has contributed a moderate degree of attention to the im+act of economic decline and the security anddefence behaviour of interde+endent states) Eesearch in this vein has been considered at systemic, dyadic andnational levels) Several notable contributions follow) 5irst, on the systemic level, Pollins V2..K< advances 6odels:i

and Thom+son's V14< wor: on leadershi+ cycle theory, =nding that rhythms in the global economy

are associated $ith the rise and a o a +re-eminent po$er and the often boody

transition from one +re-eminent leader to the ne9t) As such, e9ogenous shoc:s such as economic crises

coud usher in a redistribution o relative po$er Vsee also Lil+in) 1K1< that leads to uncertainty



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about +ower balances, increasing the ris, o miscacuation V5eaver, 10<) Alternatively, even a

relatively certain redistribution of +ower could lead to a +ermissive environment for conict as a rising po$ermay see, to chaenge a decining po$er V7erner) 1<) Se+arately, Pollins V14< alsoshows that global economic cycles combined with +arallel leadershi+ cycles im+act the li:elihood of conict amongmaIor, medium and small +owers, although he suggests that the causes and connections between global economicconditions and security conditions remain un:nown) Second, on a dyadic level, Co+eland's V14, 2...< theory oftrade e9+ectations suggests that 'future e9+ectation of trade' is a signi=cant variable in understanding economicconditions and security behaviour of states) !e argues that interde+endent states are li:ely to gain +aci=c bene=tsfrom trade so long as they have an o+timistic view of future trade relations) !owever, if the e9+ectations of futuretrade decline, +articularly for diXcult to re+lace items such as energy resources, the li:elihood for conictincreases, as states will be inclined to use force to gain access to those resources) Crises could +otentially be thetrigger for decreased trade e9+ectations either on its own or because it triggers +rotectionist moves byinterde+endent states)/ Third, others have considered the lin: between economic decline and e9ternal armed

conict at a national level) lomberg and !ess V2..2< =nd a strong correation between

internal conict and e9ternal conict, +articularly during +eriods of economic downturn) Theywrite The lin:ages between internal and e9ternal conict and +ros+erity are strong and mutually reinforcing)(conomic conict tends to s+awn internal conict, which in turn returns the favour) 6oreover, the +resence of arecession tends to am+lify the e9tent to which international and e9ternal conicts self-reinforce each other)Vlomberg Y !ess, 2..2) +) K< (conomic decline has also been lin:ed with an increase in the li:elihood of terrorismVlomberg, !ess, Y 7eera+ana, 2../<, which has the ca+acity to s+ill across borders and lead to e9ternal tensions)5urthermore, crises generally reduce the +o+ularity of a sitting government) Fiversionary theoryF suggests that,

when facing un+o+ularity arising from economic decline, sitting governments have increasedincentives to fabricate e9ternal military conicts to create a 'rally around the ag' eect)7ang V14<, eEouen V10<) and lomberg, !ess, and Thac:er V2..4< =nd su++orting evidence showing that

economic decine and use of orce are at least indirectly correated ) Lel+i V1J<, 6iller

V1<, and @isangani and Pic:ering V2..< suggest that the tendency towards diversionary tactics are greater fordemocratic states than autocratic states, due to the fact that democratic leaders are generally more susce+tible tobeing removed from oXce due to lac: of domestic su++ort) eEouen V2...< has +rovided evidence showing that+eriods of wea: economic +erformance in the #nited States, and thus wea: Presidential +o+ularity, are statisticallylin:ed to an increase in the use of force) "n summary, recent economic scholarshi+ +ositively correlates economicintegration with an increase in the fre;uency of economic crises, whereas +olitical science scholarshi+ lin:seconomic decline with e9ternal conict at systemic, dyadic and national levels)0 This im+lied connection betweenintegration, crises and armed conict has not featured +rominently in the economic-security debate and deservesmore attention)

(iting the embargo prevents Cuban economic coapse" sovesinstabiity and terrorist attac,sAshby -"'.-13 [r) Timothy Ashby, holds a Ph, H and 6A, Senior Eesearch5ellow at the Council on !emis+heric Aairs, served in the #)S) Commercee+artmentQs "nternational Trade Administration as irector of the GXce of 6e9icoand the Caribbean and as acting e+uty Assistant Secretary of Commerce for the7estern !emis+here, &Preserving Stability in Cuba After ?ormaliBing Eelations withthe #nited States U The "m+ortance of Trading with State-Gwned (nter+rises,*htt+www)coha)org+reserving-stability-in-cuba-timothy-ashby

The twilight of the Castro era +resents challenges and o++ortunities for #)S) +olicyma:ers) ?ormaliBation of relations is inevitable, regardless of timing, yet e9ternal and internal factors may

accelerate or retard the +rocess) The death of $eneBuelan President !ugo ChZveB is li:ely toundermine the already dysfunctional Cuban economy , if it leads to reductions in oilim+orts and other forms of aid ) This could bring social chaos, es+ecially among the islandQsdisaected youth) Such an outcome would generate adverse conse;uences for #)S) national and regional security) To maintain CubaQs social and economic stability while reforms are maturing, the #nited States must throw itself

o+en to unrestricted bilateral trade with all Cuban enter+rises, both +rivate and state-owned)8 The colla+se ofCubaQs tottering economy could seismically im+act the #nited States andneighboring countries) "t certainly did during the 6ariel oatlift of 1K., +reci+itated by a downturn in theCuban economy which led to tensions on the island) Gver 120,... Cuban refugees landed in the 6iami area,



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including 31,... criminals and mental +atients) Today, the # nited S tates de=nes its nationalsecurity interests regarding Cuba as follows8 Avoid one or more mass migrations\8 PreventCuba from becoming another +orous border that allows continuous large-scale migration to the hemis+here\ 8

Prevent Cuba from becoming a maIor source or transshi+ment +oint for the illegal drug trade\8 Avoid Cubabecoming a state with ungoverned s+aces that could +rovide a +latform for terrorists and otherswishing to harm the #nited States) [28 All of these national security threats are directly

related to economic and social conditions within Cuba)8 #)S) +olicy s+eci=cally su++orts &a mar:et-oriented economic system* [3 toward Cuba, yet regulations +rohibit the im+ortation of any goods of Cubanorigin, whether from the islandQs +otentially booming +rivate sectorUincluding 3..,... agricultural +roducersUor

State-Gwned (nter+rises V&SG(s*<) [/ Such a +olicy is counter+roductive to #)S) interests) Eegardlessof over /..,... entre+reneurs, including agricultural cultivators, it could be many years, if ever, when CubaQs+rivate sector would be ready to serve as the engine of economic growth) SG(s em+loy J2 +ercent of Cuban

wor:ers) [0 A rational commercial ra++rochement towards Cuba would therefore re;uire a changein current laws and in the system of regulations +rohibiting the im+ortation of Cuban goodsand +roducts) ?ormaliBed bilateral trade will bene=t the Cuban +eo+le by hel+ing to+rovide economic stability and fostering the growth of a middle class Uboth of whichare essential for the foundation of democratic institutions ) Two-way trade must include bothCubaQs +rivate sector as well as SG(s)8 Cuban SG(s are in a state of gradual transition li:e other +arts of theeconomy) "n ecember 2.12, the Cuban government authoriBed a wide range of co-o+s that will allow wor:ers tocollectively o+en new businesses or ta:e over e9isting SG(s in construction, trans+ortation, and other industries)Considered a +ilot +rogram that is a +rime candidate for an e9+ansion, the co-o+s &will not be administrativelysubordinated to any state entity)* [4 6any Cuban oXcials, well aware of the limits to small-scale entre+reneurism,a++ear to harbor ho+e that co-o+s could shift a large +ortion of the islandQs economy to free-mar:et com+etitionfrom government-managed socialism) "n other transitional states, +articularly in +ost-socialist economies, co-o+shave served as commercial bridges between state-owned and +rivatiBed business) Gf the 3.. largest co-o+s in theworld, more than half are in #nited States, "taly, or 5rance) [J8 "ronically, the out+uts of such co-o+s, includingagricultural +roducts which could =nd strong demand in the American mar:et, are barred by short-sighted federalregulations, thus ham+ering, if not defeating, what could be a maIor #)S) +olicy goal) 8 The #nited States has beenactively trading with foreign SG(s for years) China, a one +arty, communist state, is the #nited StatesQs secondlargest trading +artner, and Chinese SG(Qs account for a large +ercentage of the nearly /.. billion #S in goodse9+orted to America each year) $eneBuela is in the to+ =fteen of #)S) trading +artners, and the bul: of thatcountryQs e9+orts are +etroleum +roducts deriving from the state-owned P$SA Vwhich in turn owns !ouston-basedC"TCG oil com+any<) Another communist country, $ietnamUwhich initially was the subIect of a #)S) economicembargo similar to that im+osed on CubaUis the second largest source of #)S) clothing im+orts and a maIormanufacturing source for footwear, furniture, and electrical machinery) [K Gn these matters, the Cubangovernment has said that it wants to &re+licate the +aths of $ietnam and China)* [8 Gf relevance to Cuban trade

relations, $ietnam has formally re;uested to be added to the #)S) LeneraliBed System of Preferences VLSP< +rogramas a &bene=ciary develo+ing country,* which authoriBes the #)S) +resident to grant duty-free treatment for eligible+roducts) The statute also +rovides the President with s+eci=c +olitical and economic criteria to use, whendesignating eligible countries and +roducts) &Communist* countries are not eligible for LSP membershi+ unless the+resident determines that certain conditions have been met, including whether the a++licant is &dominated orcontrolled by international communism)* 5urthermore, countries that fail to recogniBe &internationally acce+tedwor:ersQ rights* are e9cluded) [1.8 #)S) statutes do not +rovide a general de=nition of a &communist* country, andthe Gbama administration is e9+ected to declare that $ietnam is no longer &communist* in terms of its economicsystem) The argument will be that even if $ietnam is a &communist* country Vhard to deny, considering it has one+arty government that is oXcially titled the Communist Party of $ietnam<, it is &not dominated or controlled byinternational communism* because no such entity e9ists following the colla+se of the Soviet #nion) Similararguments may be a++lied to Cuba in considering normaliBed relations with the #nited States) 8 At the re;uest ofthe #)S) Congress, the Leneral Accounting GXce VLAG< conducted detailed reviews of the framewor:s for seven:ey statutes that govern Cuban sanctions) [11 The resulting re+orts concluded that Vi< the +resident still maintains&broad discretion* to ma:e additional modi=cations to Cuban sanctions\ and Vii< +rior measures, im+lemented bythe e9ecutive branch have had the eect of easing s+eci=c restrictions of the Cuba sanctions and have been

consistent with statutory mandates as well as within the discretionary authority of the +resident) [12 Some legalscholars assert that absence of such e9+licit statutory +rovisions in other areas suggests that Congress did notintend to +rohibit the e9ecutive branch from issuing general or s+eci=c licenses to authoriBe certain transactionswith Cuba when &such licenses are deemed to be a++ro+riate and consistent with #)S) +olicies)* [13 Although acom+le9 variety of federal statutes have re-stated the regulatory +rohibition on im+ortation of Cuban goods under31 C)5)E) ] 010)2./, enabling legislation to codify the restriction, has not been +assed) 5or e9am+le, 22 #)S)C) ]4./.Va< &notes* that 31 C)5)E) ] 010)2./ +rohibits the im+ortation of goods from Cuba, but does not codify ore9+ressly +rohibit such activity, and 22 #)S)C) ] J.2K ac:nowledges that Congress did not attem+t to alter any+rohibitions on the im+ortation of goods from Cuba under 31 C)5)E) ] 010)2./) [1/ 8 The com+lete dismantling ofthe Cuban economic embargo will undoubtedly re;uire congressional legislation\ however, the +resident has broad+owers to modify +olicy towards Cuba, +articularly in an emergency situation that could aect #)S) nationalsecurity) [10 5or e9am+le, im+orts of Cuban origin goods are +rohibited under the Cuban Asset Control Eegulations



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V&CACES*< e9ce+t as &s+eci=cally authoriBed by the Secretary of the Treasury by means of regulations, rulings,instructions, licenses or otherwise)* [148 Such authority could allow the +resident to argue for the modi=cation of31 C)5)E) ] 2./Qs com+lete +rohibition on the im+ortation of Cuban goods by stating that Cuban e9+orts to the#nited States hel+ the Cuban +eo+le by creating em+loyment and thereby maintaining the islandQs social stability)Considering the domestic +olitical constituency and the +olitical obduracy of #)S) Congress, a more realistic+residential rationale for allowing Cuban im+orts from all ty+es of enter+rises could be the +rotection of #)S)borders during an era of grave concerns about homeland security)8 Some +olicy analysts suggest that bilateraltrade with Cuba should be restricted to businesses and individuals engaged in certi=ably inde+endent Vi)e) non-

state< economic activity) [1J 7hile well-intentioned, such a +olicy would li:ely have a negligible im+act on CubaQseconomic develo+ment and fails to recogniBe that commercial enter+rises that the #)S) government would classifyas SG(s are actually co-o+s or other ty+es of ;uasi-inde+endent entities that are in the early stages of +rivatiBation)

Eestrictions such as this also fail to address larger national and regional security concerns which are the +rimary res+onsibility of the +resident)8 Although ultimately the Cuban +eo+le must freely choosetheir own +olitical and economic systems, President Gbama should be seen as having legal authority to su++ort the

transition ta:ing +lace on the island by o+ening #)S) mar:ets to Cuban im+orts) ?ormaliBed bilateral tradewill bene=t the Cuban +eo+le and hel+ to +rovide economic and social stability that is in turnvital to #)S) national and regional security)8 Such trade must include both theislandQs small, yet growing, +rivate sector and State-Gwned (nter+rises ) "n this regard, itwould be both unfair and strategically unwise to treat Cuba dierently from its stated models, China and $ietnam)

Terrorism causes nucear $arAyson *1+ [Eobert, Professor of Strategic Studies and irector of the Centre forStrategic Studies ?ew ^ealand at the $ictoria #niversity of 7ellington, &After a

Terrorist ?uclear Attac: (nvisaging Catalytic (ects,* Huly, Studies in Conict Y Terrorism, $ol) 33, "ssue J, "nforma7orld

ut these two nuclear worldsOa non-state actor nuclear attac: and a catastro+hic interstate nuclear e9changeOare

not necessarily se+arable) "t is Iust +ossible that some sort o terrorist attac, , and especiay

an act of nucear terrorism/ coud precipitate a chain o events eading to amassive e0change o nucear $eapons bet$een t$o or more of the states that+ossess them) "n this conte9t, todayQs and tomorrowQs terrorist grou+s might assume the +lace allotted during the

early Cold 7ar years to new state +ossessors of small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the ris,s

o a cataytic nucear $ar bet$een the superpo$ers started by third

parties) These ris:s were considered in the late 10.s and early 14.s as concerns grew about nuclear+roliferation, the so-called nN1 +roblem) "t may re;uire a considerable amount of imagination to de+ict anes+ecially +lausible situation where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war)5or e9am+le, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attac: on the #nited States, it might well be wondered Iust howEussia andor China could +lausibly be brought into the +icture, not least because they seem unli:ely to be =ngeredas the most obvious state s+onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou+s) They would seem far too res+onsible to beinvolved in su++orting that sort of terrorist behavior that could Iust as easily threaten them as well) Some+ossibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves) 5or e9am+le, how might the #nited States react if it wasthought or discovered that the =ssile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Eussian stoc:s,/.and if for some reason 6oscow denied any res+onsibility for nuclear la9ity> The correct attribution of that nuclearmaterial to a +articular country might not be a case of science =ction given the observation by 6ichael 6ay et al)that while the debris resulting from a nuclear e9+losion would be &s+read over a wide area in tiny fragments, itsradioactivity ma:es it detectable, identi=able and collectable, and a wealth of information can be obtained from itsanalysis the eXciency of the e9+losion, the materials used and, most im+ortant some indication of where thenuclear material came from)*/1 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a com+lete sur+rise, and

American oXcials refused to believe that a terrorist grou+ was fully res+onsible Vor res+onsible at all< sus+icionwould shift immediately to state +ossessors) Euling out 7estern ally countries li:e the #nited @ingdom and 5rance,and +robably "srael and "ndia as well, authorities in 7ashington would be left with a very short list consisting of

?orth @orea, +erha+s "ran if its +rogram continues, and +ossibly Pa:istan) ut at $hat stage $oud&ussia and China be de=nitely rued out in this high sta:es game of nuclear Cluedo> "n +articular/i the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac,drop o e0isting tension in

7ashingtonQs relations $ith &ussia and or China, and at a time when threats had already been traded

between these maIor +owers, $oud ofcias and poitica eaders not be tempted to

assume the $orst > Gf course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the #nited



K

States was already involved in some sort of limited armed conict with Eussia andor China, or if they wereconfronting each other from a distance in a +ro9y war, as unli:ely as these develo+ments may seem at the +resenttime) The reverse might well a++ly too should a nuclear terrorist attac: occur in Eussia or China during a +eriod ofheightened tension or even limited conict with the #nited States, could 6oscow and eiIing resist the +ressuresthat might rise domestically to consider the #nited States as a +ossible +er+etrator or encourager of the attac:>

2ashington%s eary response to a terrorist nuclear attac: on its own soil might also raise thepossibiity o an un$anted Vand nuclear aided< conrontation with Eussia andor China) 5or

e9am+le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac:, the U3S3president might be e0pected to pace the country%s armed forces, including its

nucear arsena/ on a higher stage o aert) "n such a tense environment, when careful

+lanning runs u+ against the friction of reality, it is Iust possibe that )osco$ and or Chinamight mista,eny read this as a sign o U3S3 intentions to use orce Vand

+ossibly nuclear force< against them) "n that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might

gro$, although it must be admitted that any +reem+tion would +robably still meet with a devastating res+onse)As +art of its initial res+onse to the act of nuclear terrorism Vas discussed earlier< 7ashington might decide to ordera signi=cant conventional Vor nuclear< retaliatory or disarming attac: against the leadershi+ of the terrorist grou+andor states seen to su++ort that grou+) e+ending on the identity and es+ecially the location of thesetargets, Eussia andor China might inter+ret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and +otentially asan infringement on their s+heres of inuence and even on their sovereignty) Gne far-fetched but +erha+s notim+ossible scenario might stem from a Iudgment in 7ashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of theterrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya, +erha+s in connection with what Allison claims is the

&Chechen insurgentsQ long-standing interest in all things nuclear)*/2 American +ressure on that +art of the worldwould almost certainly raise alarms in 6oscow that might re;uire a degree of advanced consultation from7ashington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to +rovide) There is also the ;uestion of how othernuclear-armed states res+ond to the act of nuclear terrorism on another member of that s+ecial club) "t couldreasonably be e9+ected that following a nuclear terrorist attac: on the #nited States, bothEussia and China woulde9tend immediate sym+athy and su++ort to 7ashington and would wor: alongside the #nited States in the SecurityCouncil) ut there is Iust a chance, albeit a slim one, where the su++ort of Eussia andor China is less automatic insome cases than in others) 5or e9am+le, what would ha++en if the #nited States wished to discuss its right toretaliate against grou+s based in their territory> "f, for some reason, 7ashington found the res+onses of Eussia andChina dee+ly underwhelming, Vneither &for us or against us*< might it also sus+ect that they secretly were incahoots with the grou+, increasing Vagain +erha+s ever so slightly< the chances of a maIor e9change) "f the terroristgrou+ had some connections to grou+s in Eussia and China, or e9isted in areas of the world over which Eussia andChina held sway, and if 7ashington felt that 6oscow or eiIing were +lacing a curiously modest level of +ressure onthem, what conclusions might it then draw about their cul+ability

Advantage ' is &eations:

US"(atin American reations are in decine" ne$ US poicies are,eyIA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+

The #nited States and %atin America,* A+ril,htt+www)thedialogue)orgPublication5iles"A2.12PolicyEe+ort5"?A%)+df

"m+ressive economic, +olitical, and social +rogress at home has, in turn, 8 given raBil, 6e9ico, Chile, Colombia,Peru, and many other countries 8 greater access to worldwide o++ortunities ) "ndeed, the regionQs most salient 8 transformation may be its increasingly global connections and widening 8 international relationshi+s )8 raBilQsdramatic rise on the world stage most visibly e9em+li=es the shift ) 8 ut other countries, too, are +artici+atingactively in global aairs and 8 develo+ing e9tensive networ:s of commercial and +olitical ties ) China is an 8 increasingly +rominent economic actor, but "ndia and other Asian countries 8 are intensifying their ties to the regionas well )8 The #nited States has also changed mar:edly, in ways that many =nd worrisome ) The 2..K =nancialcrisis revealed serious misalignments in and +oor 8 management of the #S economyOwhich, four years later, is stillstruggling 8 to recover ) "ne;uality has signi=cantly widened in the #nited States, while 8 much-neededim+rovements in education and infrastructure are ignored )8 The most ominous change in the #nited States has

ta:en +lace in the 8 +olitical realm ) Politics have become less collaborative ) "t is increasingly 8 diXcult to =nd common ground on which to build solutions to the critical 8 +roblems on the +olicy agenda )

Com+romise, the hallmar: of democratic 8 governance, has become an ebbing art, re+laced bygridloc: and inaction 8 on challenges that would advance #S national interests and well-being )8 "n +art as a

http://www.thedialogue.org/PublicationFiles/IAD2012PolicyReportFINAL.pdf




result of these shifts, #S-%atin American relations have grown 8 more distant ) The ;ualityand intensity of ties have diminished ) 6ost countries of the region view the #nited States as less andless relevant to their 8 needsOand with declining ca+acity to +ro+ose and carry out strategies to 8 deal with theissues that most concern them )8 "n the main, hemis+heric relations are amicable ) G+en conict is rare and, 8

ha++ily, the shar+ antagonisms that marred relations in the +ast have subsided ) ut the #S-%atin Americarelationshi+ would +ro=t from more vitality 8 and direction ) Shared interests are not +ursued

as vigorously as they should 8 be, and o++ortunities for more fruitful engagement are beingmissed ) 7ell-develo+ed ideas for reversing these disa++ointing trends are scarce)

The pan restores cooperation bet$een the US and (atinAmerica2hite -"5-13 [Eobert () 7hite, a senior fellow at the Center for "nternational Policy,was the #nited States ambassador to Paraguay from 1JJ to 1J and to (lSalvador from 1K. to 1K1, &After ChZveB, a Chance to Eethin: Eelations 7ithCuba,* htt+www)nytimes)com2.13.3.Ko+inionafter-chaveB-ho+e-for-good-neighbors-in-latin-america)html>+agewanted_allY`r_.

An end to the Cuba embargo would send a +owerful signal to all of %atin Americathat the #nited States wants a new, warmer relationshi+ with democratic forcessee:ing social change throughout the Americas )8 " Ioined the State e+artment as a 5oreignService oXcer in the 10.s and chose to serve in %atin America in the 14.s) " was ins+ired by President Hohn 5)@ennedyQs creative res+onse to the revolutionary fervor then swee+ing %atin America) The 10 Cuban revolution,led by the charismatic 5idel Castro, had ins+ired revolts against the cruel dictatorshi+s and corru+t+seudodemocracies that had dominated the region since the end of S+anish and Portuguese rule in the 1thcentury)8 @ennedy had a charisma of his own, and it ca+tured the imaginations of leaders who wanted democraticchange, not violent revolution) @ennedy reacted to the threat of continental insurrection by creating the Alliance forProgress, a :ind of 6arshall Plan for the hemis+here that was calculated to achieve the same :ind of results thatsaved 7estern (uro+e from Communism) !e +ledged billions of dollars to this eort) "n hindsight, it may have beenoverly ambitious, even nave, but @ennedyQs focus on %atin America re:indled the +romise of the Lood ?eighborPolicy of 5ran:lin ) Eoosevelt and transformed the whole conce+t of inter-American relations) 8 Tragically, after@ennedyQs assassination in 143, the ideal of the Alliance for Progress crumbled and &la noche mas larga* O &thelongest night* O began for the +ro+onents of %atin American democracy) 6ilitary regimes ourished, democraticgovernments withered, moderate +olitical and civil leaders were labeled Communists, rights of free s+eech and

assembly were curtailed and human dignity crushed, largely because the #nited States abandoned all standardssave that of anti-Communism)8 uring my 5oreign Service career, " did what " could to o++ose +olicies thatsu++orted dictators and closed o democratic alternatives) "n 1K1, as the ambassador to (l Salvador, " refused ademand by the secretary of state, Ale9ander 6) !aig Hr), that " use oXcial channels to cover u+ the SalvadoranmilitaryQs res+onsibility for the murders of four American churchwomen) " was =red and forced out of the 5oreignService)8 The Eeagan administration, under the illusion that Cuba was the +ower driving the Salvadoran revolution,turned its +olicy over to the Pentagon and C)")A), with +redictable results) uring the 1K.s the #nited Stateshel+ed e9+and the Salvadoran military, which was dominated by uniformed assassins) 7e armed them, trainedthem and covered u+ their crimes)8 After our counterrevolutionary eorts failed to end the Salvadoran conict, theefense e+artment as:ed its research institute, the EA? Cor+oration, what had gone wrong) EA? analystsfound that #nited States +olicy ma:ers had refused to acce+t the obvious truth that the insurgents were rebellingagainst social inIustice and state terror) As a result, &we +ursued a +olicy unsettling to ourselves, for endshumiliating to the Salvadorans and at a cost dis+ro+ortionate to any conventional conce+tion of the nationalinterest)*8 Gver the subse;uent ;uarter-century, a series of +rofound +olitical, social and economic changes haveundermined the traditional +ower bases in %atin America and, with them, longstanding regional institutions li:e theGrganiBation of American States) The organiBation, which is head;uartered in 7ashington and which e9cluded Cuba

in 142, was seen as irrelevant by 6r) ChZveB) !e +romoted the creation of the Community of %atin American andCaribbean States O which e9cludes the #nited States and Canada O as an alternative)8 At a regional meeting thatincluded Cuba and e9cluded the #nited States, 6r) ChZveB said that &the most +ositive thing for the inde+endenceof our continent is that we meet alone without the hegemony of em+ire)*8 6r) ChZveB was masterful atmani+ulating AmericaQs antagonism toward 5idel Castro as a rhetorical stic: with which to attac: the #nited Statesas an im+erialist aggressor, an enemy of +rogressive change, interested mainly in treating %atin America as avassal continent, a source of chea+ commodities and labor)8 %i:e its +redecessors, the Gbama administration hasgiven few signs that it has gras+ed the magnitude of these changes or cares about their conse;uences) AfterPresident Gbama too: oXce in 2.., %atin AmericaQs leading statesman at the time, %uiB "nZcio %ula da Silva, thenthe +resident of raBil, urged 6r) Gbama to normaliBe relations with Cuba) 8 %ula, as he is universally :nown,correctly identi=ed our Cuba +olicy as the chief stumbling bloc: to renewed ties with %atin America, as it had beensince the very early years of the Castro regime)8 After the failure of the 141 ay of Pigs invasion, 7ashington set

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1.

out to accom+lish by stealth and economic strangulation what it had failed to do by frontal attac:) ut the clumsymi9 of covert action and +orous boycott succeeded +rimarily in bringing shame on the #nited States and turning 6r)Castro into a fol: hero)8 And even now, des+ite the rela9ing of travel restrictions and Eal CastroQs announcementthat he will retire in 2.1K, the im+lacable hatred of many within the Cuban e9ile community continues) The fact thattwo of the three Cuban-American members of the Senate O 6arco Eubio of 5lorida and Ted CruB of Te9as O arerising stars in the Ee+ublican Party com+licates further the +otential for a recalibration of Cuban-American relations)VThe third member, Senator Eobert 6enendeB, emocrat of ?ew Hersey, is the new chairman of the Senate 5oreignEelations Committee, but his +ower has been wea:ened by a continuing ethics controversy)< 8 Are there any other

e9am+les in the history of di+lomacy where the leaders of a small, wea: nation can +revent a great +ower fromacting in its own best interest merely by staying alive>8 The re-election of President Gbama, and the death of 6r)ChZveB, give America a chance to reassess the irrational hold on our imaginations that 5idel Castro has e9erted for

=ve decades) The +resident and his new secretary of state, Hohn @erry, should ;uietly reach out to%atin American leaders li:e President Huan 6anuel Santos of Colombia and Hos 6iguel "nsulBa, secretary

general of the GrganiBation of American States) The message should be sim+le The +resident is+re+ared to show some e9ibility on Cuba and as:s your hel+) 8 Such a sim+lere;uest could transform the Cuban issue from a bilateral +roblem into a multilateralchallenge) "t would then be u+ to %atin Americans to devise a +olicy that would hel+ Cuba achieve a suXcientmeasure of democratic change to Iustify its reintegration into a hemis+here com+osed entirely of elected

governments)8 "f , however, our +resent +olicy +aralysis continues, we will soon see theemergence of two rival cam+s, the #nited States versus %atin America) 7hile 7ashingtonwould continue to enIoy friendly relations with individual countries li:e raBil, 6e9ico and Colombia, the vision of

Eoosevelt and @ennedy of a hemis+here of +artners coo+erating in matters of common concernwould be reduced to a historical footnote)

&eations sove proieration/ cimate change/ and economicgro$th" engagement is ,ey6roo,ings *+7 [The roo:ings "nstitution is a +rivate non+ro=t organiBationdevoted to inde+endent research and innovative +olicy solutions, &Ee-Thin:ing #)S)-%atin American Eelations A !emis+heric Partnershi+ for a Turbulent 7orld,*?ovember, htt+www)broo:ings)eduresearchre+orts2..K112/-latin-america-+artnershi+

evelo+ments in %atin America and the Caribbean V%AC< have a very signi=cant im+act on the daily lives of thosewho live in the #nited States) Det because of a lac: of trust, an inability to underta:e stable commitments by some

countries, and dierent #)S) +riorities, the #nited States and %atin America have rarelydevelo+ed a genuine and sustained +artnershi+ to address regionalOlet aloneglobalOchallenges)8 "f a hemis+heric +artnershi+ remains elusive, the costs to the

#nited States and its neighbors will be high, in terms of both growing ris:s and missed o++ortunities) 7ithout a+artnershi+, the ris: that criminal networ:s +ose to the regionQs +eo+le and institutions will continue to grow)

Peaceful nuclear technology may be ado+ted more widely, but without +ro+er regionalsafeguards, the ris:s of nuclear +roliferation will increase) Ada+tation to climatechange will ta:e +lace through isolated, im+rovised measures by individualcountries, rather than through more eective eorts based on mutual learning andcoordination) "llegal immigration to the #nited States will continue unabated andunregulated, adding to an ever-larger underclass that lives and wor:s at the

margins of the law) 5inally, the countries around the hemis+here, including the #nited States, will losevaluable o++ortunities to ta+ new mar:ets, ma:e new investments, and accessvaluable resources)8 Today, several changes in the region have made a hemis+heric +artnershi+ both

+ossible and necessary) The :ey challenges faced by the #nited States and the hemis+hereQs other countries

Osuch as securing sustainable energy su++lies, combating and ada+ting to climatechange, and combating organiBed crime and drug traXc:ingOhave become socom+le9 and dee+ly transnational that they cannot be managed or overcome byany single country) At the same time, the %AC countries are diversifying their international economic and+olitical relations, ma:ing them less reliant on the #nited States) 5inally, the %AC countries are better +ositioned

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11

than before to act as reliable +artners)8 This re+ort does not advance a single, grand scheme for reinventinghemis+heric relations) "nstead, the re+ort is based on two sim+le +ro+ositions The countries of the hemis+hereshare common interests\ and the #nited States should engage its hemis+heric neighbors on issues where sharedinterests, obIectives, and solutions are easiest to identify and can serve as the basis for an eective +artnershi+) "nthis s+irit, the re+ort oers a series of modest, +ragmatic recommendations that, if im+lemented, could hel+ thecountries of the region manage :ey transnational challenges and realiBe the regionQs +otential)

8roieration causes nucear $ar)onroe ."1'-12 [Eobert, vice admiral, #)S) ?avy VEet)<, &?on+roliferation re;uiresenforcement,* htt+thehill)comblogscongress-blogforeign-+olicy2/./-non+roliferation-re;uires-enforcement

Proliferation of nuclear wea+ons among nations is the gravest threat facing the #Sand the world) 5or twenty years two irres+onsible and belligerent rogue states have been wor:ing intensely todevelo+ nuclear wea+ons +roduction ca+abilities) The world has +rotested and wrung its hands) ?orth @orea hasnow tested +rimitive wea+ons, and "ran is close to +roducing them) 7hen ?orth @orea succeeds in wea+oniBing itsdesigns, it will sell them to anyone desiring to buy U including terrorists) ?eighboring states such as South @orea

and Ha+an will be forced to go nuclear in self-+rotection) "ranQs ac;uisition of nuclear wea+ons U andits li:ely willingness to give them to +ro9ies such as !eBbollah, !amas, and Al

aeda for use U will stimulate another regional surge of +roliferation as SaudiArabia, (gy+t, Tur:ey, and others follow suit) "n no time the cascade will be global,as states li:e $eneBuela, Lermany, raBil, and Argentina, rush to +rotect themselves) 7ithnuclear wea+ons wides+read, and nuclear material even more readily available,terrorist ac;uisition of nuclear wea+ons will not be diXcult) 7eQre moving toward aworld of nuclear horror and chaos , a return from which a++ears im+ossible)

9oba $arming causes e0tinction4eibe *+5 [Terry %) eibel, +rofessor of "E at ?ational 7ar College, 5oreign AairsStrategy, &Conclusion American 5oreign Aairs Strategy Today Anthro+ogenic Ucaused by CG2*

5inally, there is one maIor e9istential threat to American security Vas well as +ros+erity< of a

nonviolent nature, which, though far in the future, demands urgent action) "t is the threat of globalwarming to the stability of the climate u+on which all earthly life de+ends) Scientistsworldwide have been observing the gathering of this threat for three decades now,and $hat $as once a mere possibiity has passed through +robability to near

certainty3 "ndeed not one o more than .++ artices on cimate changepubished in reereed scientic ;ournas from 13 to 2..3 doubted thatanthro+ogenic warming is occurring) &"n legitimate scienti=c circles,* writes (liBabeth @olbert, &it isvirtually impossibe to nd evidence o disagreement over the fundamentals of global warming )* (vidence from a vast international scienti=c monitoring eortaccumulates almost wee:ly, as this sam+le of news+a+er re+orts shows aninternational +anel +redicts &brutal droughts, oods and violent storms across the+lanet over the ne9t century*\ climate change could &literally alter ocean currents, wi+e away huge +ortions of Al+ine Snowca+s and aid the

s+read of cholera and malaria*\ &glaciers in the Antarctic and in Lreenland are melting much faster than e9+ected, andworldwide, +lants are bloomingseveral days earlier than a decade ago*\ &rising sea tem+eratures have been accom+anied by a signi=cant global increase in the most destructivehurricanes*\ &?ASA scientists have concluded from direct tem+erature measurements that 2..0 was the hottest year on record, with 1K a closesecond*\ &(arthQs warming climate is estimated to contribute to more than 10.,... deaths and 0 million illnesses each year* as disease s+reads\&wides+read bleaching from Te9as to Trinidad:illed broad swaths of corals* due to a 2-degree rise in sea tem+eratures) &The world is slowlydisintegrating,* concluded "nuit hunter ?oah 6etu;, who lives 3. miles from the Arctic Circle) &They call it climate changebut we Iust call it brea:ing u+)*5rom the founding of the =rst cities some 4,... years ago until the beginning of the industrial revolution, carbon dio9ide levels in the atmos+hereremained relatively constant at about 2K. +arts +er million V++m<) At +resent they are accelerating toward /.. ++m, and by 2.0. they will reach 0..++m, about double +re-industrial levels) #nfortunately, atmos+heric CG2 lasts about a century, so there is no way immediately to reduce levels, only toslow their increase, we are thus in for signi=cant global warming\ the only debate is how much and how serous the eects will be) As the news+a+erstories ;uoted above show, we are already e9+eriencing the eects of 1-2 degree warming in more violent storms, s+read of disease, mass die os of

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12

+lants and animals , s+ecies e9tinction, and threatened inundation of low-lying countriesli:e the Paci=c nation of @iribati and the ?etherlands at a warming of 0 degrees or less the Lreenland and 7est

Antarctic ice sheets could disintegrate, leading to a sea level of rise of 2. feet that would cover?orth CarolinaQs outer ban:s, swam+ the southern third of 5lorida, and inundate 6anhattan

u+ to the middle of Lreenwich $illage) Another catastro+hic eect would be the colla+se of theAtlantic thermohaline circulation that :ee+s the winter weather in (uro+e far warmer than its latitude

would otherwise allow) (conomist 7illiam Cline once estimated the damage to the #nited States alone frommoderate levels of warming at 1-4 +ercent of LP annually\ severe warming could cost 13-24 +ercent of LP) ut

the most frightening scenario is runaway greenhouse warming, based on +ositivefeedbac: from the buildu+ of water va+or in the atmos+here that is both caused byand causes hotter surface tem+eratures) Past ice age transitions, associated with only 0-1. degreechanges in average global tem+eratures, too: +lace in Iust decades, even though no one was then +ouring ever-increasing amounts of carbon into the atmos+here) 5aced with this s+ecter, the best one can conclude is that&human:indQs continuing enhancement of the natural greenhouse eect is a:in to +laying Eussian roulette with theearthQs climate and humanityQs life su++ort system) At worst, says +hysics +rofessor 6arty !oert of ?ew Dor:

#niversity, &weQre Iust going to burn everything u+\ weQre going to het the atmos+here to the

tem+erature it was in the Cretaceous when there were crocodiles at the +oles, and then everything willcolla+se)* uring the Cold 7ar, astronomer Carl Sagan +o+ulariBed a theory of nuclear winter to describe how athermonuclear war between the #ntied States and the Soviet #nion would not only destroy both countries but

+ossible end life on this +lanet) 9oba $arming is the post"Cod 2ar era%s e<uivaent

o nucear $inter at east as serious and consideraby better supportedscienticay) Gver the long run it +uts dangers form terrorism and traditional militarychallenges to shame) "t is a threat not only to the security and +ros+erity to the#nited States, but +otentially to the continued e9istence of life on this +lanet)

Advantage - is US In=uence:

The embargo destroys internationa credibiity" the pan is ,eyto restore US in=uenceA>8 %11 [American 5oreign Policy, foreign +olicy-based magaBine run at Princeton

#niversity, &(nding the (mbargo Against Cuba 7hy GbamaQs aby Ste+s Are ?ot(nough,* 3-14, htt+af++rinceton)com2.11.3ending-the-embargo-against-cuba-why-obamaM(2MK.Ms-baby-ste+s-are-not-enough

As the +residential election of 2.12 a++roaches, more and more critics are deriding President GbamaQs +re-electionvision of ho+e and change, targeting what they consider to be GbamaQs naivete in foreign +olicy) This Hanuary,however, the +resident announced one signi=cant foreign +olicy reform that he ho+es will counter such criticism) "na memorandum entitled &Eeaching Gut to the Cuban Peo+le,* he detailed foreign +olicy changes between the#nited States and Cuba that ease the =fty-year American embargo on Cuba) The three-+art reform measure thathas gone largely unnoticed attem+ts to create more contact with the citiBens of Cuba, and the changes it

im+lements are certainly admirable) As its failures over the +ast =fty years have shown, however, the embargois a Cold 7ar remnant of +olitical tension that is hurting American industry,AmericaQs re+utation abroad , and most directly, the Cuban +eo+le) Analysis of the negativerami=cations of the embargo reveals that President Gbama should fully end the o++ressive embargo and reconnect

the #nited States with the Cuban citiBenry)8 The economic embargo was =rst enacted in 14. as the swift answer tocommunist President 5idel CastroQs seiBure of American +ro+erty in Cuba) Since then, every American +resident hasmaintained the embargo in some form, with a conditional +romise to lift it when Cuba ado+ts a democratic systemof government)8 %ast year, President Gbama ended restrictions on travel and cash remittances by family membersof Cubans, but his newest move has forced +oliticians and citiBens ali:e to reconsider the issue) Although Cuba isstill not fully o+en to the +ublic and businesses, the new +olicy aims &to enhance contact with the Cuban +eo+leand su++ort civil society* by allowing a++roved licensed travelers for &+ur+oseful travel)*8 5ollowing the changes, avariety of grou+s can visit the communist state religious organiBations are now able to travel for missionary+ur+oses, academic institutions are able to s+onsor study abroad +rograms, and cultural grou+s are encouraged tohost conferences along with other forms of &educational e9change)* Additionally, re+orters have been given morefreedom to travel to Cuba for Iournalistic +ur+oses) The new +olicy also allows remittances of 0.. +er ;uarter thatcan be sent by Americans to Cuban citiBens Ve9cluding senior Cuban government oXcials and members of the

http://afpprinceton.com/2011/03/ending-the-embargo-against-cuba-why-obama%E2%80%99s-baby-steps-are-not-enough/






13

Communist Party<) The =nal +art of the memorandum aects charter ights to Cuba which had been +reviouslyrestricted to 6iami and a few other air+orts) ?ow, all international air+orts can a++ly for licenses allowing ights toCuba for family members and others engaging in &+ur+oseful travel)*8 The loosening of restrictions continues aseries of recent im+rovements in American-Cuban relations) Although Cuba is undoubtedly facing economic woesO0..,... government wor:ers were laid o last Se+temberOcitiBens are slowly a++roaching true +olitical freedom)"n 5ebruary 2..K, 5idel Castro resigned from his +osition as +resident of Cuba due to health reasons, and CubaQs?ational Assembly selected his relatively moderate brother, Eaul, as his successor) 7hen ta:ing oXce, Eaul Castrosuggested that Cuba may be headed &toward a more democratic society,* and Cuba is indeed showing signs of

change) "n 2.. Eaul Castro oered to s+ea: with President Gbama, saying, &7e have sent word to the #)S)government in +rivate and in +ublic that we are willing to discuss everything, human rights, freedom of the +ress,+olitical +risoners, everything)* CitiBens in Cuba are now allowed to own cell +hones, and farmers can till their ownland) 6ost recently, Cuba has been releasing +olitical +risoners, some of whom had been sentenced to decades of

im+risonment)8 The +olitical buBB generated by the memorandum is to be e9+ected, given that the embargo+olicy has been a +art of American di+lomacy for =fty years ) %i:e most members of his +arty,Cornelius 6ac: VE-5%< had harsh feelings toward the +residentQs +olicy change, saying that the &dictatorshi+ is oneof the most brutal in the world) The #)S) economic embargo must remain in +lace until tyranny gives way tofreedom and democracy)* "n a statement that de=ed the emocratic +arty line, Cuban-American Senator Eobert6enendeB V-?H< echoed the sentiments, calling the loosening of the embargo a &gift to the Castro brothers [thatwill +rovide the regime with the additional resources it needs to sustain its failing economy)*8 Det the changes arealso receiving su++ort from varied sources) Pe+e !ernandeB, head of the Cuban-American ?ational 5oundation,+raised the shift for allowing im+overished Cubans to =ght for economic inde+endence from the Castroadministration) Eev) 6ichael @innamon, s+ea:ing on behalf of the ?ational Council of Churches, commended themove, saying, &7e loo: forward to the day when the #) S) embargo of Cuba will be lifted com+letely)* (ven someEe+ublicans favor the change, including Senator Eichard %ugar, who said last year that &the unilateral embargo on

Cuba has failed to achieve its stated +ur+ose of &bringing democracy to the Cuban +eo+le)* 8 Those who still favorthe use of the embargo see it as a way to +ressure the communist regime of Cuba) The idea was that, the embargowould inict hunger and suering among Cubans, wea:ening the regime and even s+urring a revolt against theCastro regime) ut %ugar is correct the failed history of the embargo should disabuse us of this notion) Gver thelast =ve decades, American-Cuban relations have been characteriBed by stagnation and hostility) The country hascertainly shown signs of hardshi+, but the Cuban +eo+le have not been able to organiBe and +rotest against thegovernment) "nstead, 5idel Castro was able to rule with an iron =rst, before handing the +residency to his brother)5idel Castro continues issue regular tirades in the news+a+er Lranma, which serves as the mouth+iece for theCuban Communist Party) Clearly, the outdated embargo has served to strengthen the Castro regime, rather thancreate e9treme instability) Perha+s most tragic has been the fate of the Cuban +eo+le, who continue to suereconomically, +olitically, and even emotionally the nation has one of the highest suicide rates in the world) 8 Although the +resident deserves +raise for the di+lomatic changes, they are not new) uring the Carter and Clintonadministrations, similar restrictions were lifted, but the changes were short-lived) 6oreover, the embargo under the

Leorge 7) ush administration was very strictly enforced, eectively negating ClintonQs reforms) The recentchanges loosen the restrictions, but the basic tenet of banned trade remains intact )

American industries are still not +ermitted to engage in business with the communist nation) Although wea:eningthe embargo is certainly a ste+ in the right direction, the nation needs to ta:e further ste+s to endthe +unitive +olicy)8 "ncreasing contact with the Cuban +eo+le is certainly not e;uivalent to acce+tingcommunism) Eather, it e9+oses Cubans to the democratic +rinci+les es+oused by the #nited States and the bene=tsof ca+italism) At the +resent time, Cubans are inundated with anti-American +ro+aganda s+ewed by state-run

media sources) (ven though funds from America may indeed bene=t the Cuban economy, it is time to letdi+lomacy show American su++ort for the Cuban +eo+le) y abandoning the Cuban +eo+le, the#nited States is leaving them at the mercy of a communist regime that continues to retain +ower) 5ormingeconomic, academic, and cultural connections will allow the #nited States to introduce American ideas to Cubans in

a +eaceful and eective way)8 "n addition to aiding the Cuban +eo+le, ending the embargo wouldstrengthen AmericaQs own economic interests and im+rove her re+utation abroad)

American businesses currently yearn for the unta++ed +otential +resent in Cuba, and the o+ening of tradewould hel+ the #nited States assert dominance during a diXcult economic time )

5urthermore, the negative global conse;uences of the embargo would be curbed ) Cuban5oreign 6inister runo EodrigueB called the +resent embargo a &cruel and aggressive +olicy absolutely contrary to

international law* and much of the international community agrees\ in Gctober 2.1., the #nited ?ationsvoted to end the #)S) embargo for the 1th consecutive year, with 1KJ members voting against theembargo and the only two votes su++orting the embargo from the #nited States and "srael) 8 President Gbama hasta:en a ste+ in the right direction with his modi=cation of the embargo against Cuba, but it is sim+ly not enough) "nthe current, relatively moderate Cuban +olitical environment, ending the =fty-year-old embargo would give theCuban +eo+le the American economic and cultural connection they sorely need) "f Gbama limits his actions to the

su+er=cial changes of Carter and Clinton, both the +resident and his +olicies may be gone in 2.12) Eelationsbetween the #nited States and Cuba cannot aord to wait another =fty years)



1/

Sot po$er soves $ar and is ,ey to e?ective hegemony @ervis +. &obert/ proessor o internationa poitics at CoumbiaUniversity/ BUnipoarity: A Structura 8erspective/ 2ord 8oitics Doume1/ Fumber 1/ @anuary '++.G

To say that the system is unipoar is not to argue that the unipoe can get everything it $ants or that it

has no need or others3 American po$er is very great/ but it is sti sub;ect to t$o amiiar imitations:it is harder to buid than to destroy/ and success usuay depends on others% decisions3 This isparticuary true o the current system because o $hat the U3S3 $ants3 I Hiter had $on 2ord 2ar II/he might have been abe to maintain his system or some period o time $ith itte cooperation rom

others because Ba he $anted $as to estabish the supremacy o the Aryan race3 The U3S3$ants not ony to prevent the rise o a peer competitor but aso to stampout terrorism / maintain an open internationa economic system/ spreaddemocracy throughout the $ord/ and estabish a high degree o cooperation among

countries that remain ;uridicay e<ua3 Even in the miitary arena/ the U3S3 cannot actcompetey aone 3 6ases and over=ight rights are a$ays needed/ andsupport rom aies/ especiay 9reat 6ritain/ is important to vaidate miitaryaction in the eyes o the American pubic3 2hen one matches American orces/ not against those o

an adversary but against the tas,s at hand/ they oten a short3#! Against terrorism/ orce

is ine?ective $ithout e0ceent inteigence3 9iven the internationa nature o the

threat and the difcuties o gaining inormation about it/ internationa cooperation is theony route to success3 The maintenance o internationa prosperity aso re<uires ;oint e?orts/ even eaving aside the danger that other countries coudtrigger a run on the doar by cashing in their hodings3 4espite its ac, o poitica

unity/ Europe is in many respects an economic unit/ and one $ith a greater gdp than that o the U3S3Especiay because o the gro$ing Chinese economy/ economic po$er is spread around the $ord muchmore e<uay than is miitary po$er/ and the open economic system coud easiy disintegrate despite

continued unipoarity3 In parae/ on a $hoe host o probems such as aids/poverty/ and internationa crime even eaving aside cimate changeG/ the unipoecan ead and e0ert pressure but cannot dictate3 @oint actions may benecessary to appy sanctions to various unpeasant and recacitrant regimes proieration

can be stopped ony i a the ma;or states and many minor onesG $or, to this end unipoarity did not

automaticay enabe the U3S3 to maintain the coaition against Ira< ater the rst 9u 2ar cose ties$ithin the 2est are needed to reduce the abiity o China/ &ussia/ and other states to pay one2estern country o? against the others3 6ut in comparison $ith the cod $ar era/ there are e$erincentives today or aies to cooperate $ith the U3S3 4uring the earier period unity and cose coordination not ony permitted miitary efciencies but/ more importanty/ gave credibiityto the American nucear umbrea that protected the aies3 Serious spits $ere dangerous

because they entaied the ris, that the Soviet Union $oud be embodened3 This reason or avoidings<uabbes disappeared aong $ith the USS&/ and the point is i,ey to generaiJe to other unipoarsystems i they invove a decrease o threats that ca or maintaining good reations $ith thesuperpo$er3 This does not mean that even in this particuar unipoar system the superpo$er is i,e9uiver tied do$n by the (iiputians3 In some areas opposition can be se"deeating3 Thus or anycountry to undermine American eadership o the internationa economy $oud be to put its o$neconomy at ris,/ even i the U3S3 did not retaiate/ and or a country to se a arge proportion o itsdoar hoding $oud be to depress the vaue o the doar/ thereby diminishing the $orth o thecountry%s remaining stoc, o this currency3 >urthermore/ cooperation oten oo$s strong andessentiay uniatera action3 2ithout the $ar in Ira< it is not i,ey that $e $oud have seen the

degree o cooperation that the U3S3 obtained rom Europe in combating the Iranian nucear program

and rom @apan and the 8&C in containing Forth Korea3 Fevertheess/ many o the Americangoas depend on persuading others/ not coercing them3 Athough incentives and

even orce are not irreevant to spreading democracy and the ree mar,et/ at bottom this re<uires

peope to embrace a set o institutions and vaues3 6uiding the $ord that the U3S3see,s is a poitica/ socia/ and even psychoogica tas, or $hich uniaterameasures are i,ey to be unsuited and or $hich American miitary andeconomic strength can at best pay a supporting roe3 Success re<uires that

others share the American vision and beieve that its eadership is benign3



10

Strong US in=uence is ,ey to sove goba $ar/ terrorism/ anddisease&eiss *+7 V6itchell ), $ice Provost of "nternational Aairs U College of 7illiam Y

6ary, &Eestoring America's "mage 7hat the ?e9t President Can o*, Survival,Gctober, 0.V0<<

ut =rst, there is another ;uestion to be answered $hy shoud Americans care i the United

States is i,ed or notL After all, foreign +olicy is not a +o+ularity contest) Policies that are controversialtoday may loo: better in a few years) Perha+s America's un+o+ularity is Iust the +rice that must be +aid for beingthe world's most +owerful country) Det Americans do care, and their desire to be res+ected by the world has beenreected in the cam+aign rhetoric of both 6cCain and Gbama) This desire e9tends beyond the normal, near-universal human wish to be li:ed, or at least not misunderstood or hated) Americans still believe in Hohn 7inthro+'sdescri+tion of America as a 'shining city on the hill' and want others to view the #nited States that way as well) ut

there is another, arger reason or caring about the rise of anti" Americanism, one

that is reated to the United States' status as the $ordMs only superpo$er) Fo onecountry can deeat today's transnationa threats on its own) Terrorism/ inectious

disease/ environmenta poution, $ea+ons of mass destruction, narcotics andhuman trafc,ing - a these can ony be soved by states acting together) Iothers mistrust the United States or actively wor: against it, buiding e?ective coaitionsand +romoting a liberal international order that bene=ts both Americans and hundreds of millions of other +eo+le

around the world $i be ar more chaenging) #ltimately, i the United States has to go itaone or bear most of the costs while others are seen as free riders, the American peope areuni,ey to sustain engagement $ith the $ord with the same intensity, or even at all) The

history of the last century demonstrates that $hen the United States retreats rom the $ord/bad things happen) The #nited States reIected the %eague of ?ations and turned inwards in the

1'+s and 13.s, contributing to the 9reat 4epression and the onset of the Second2ord 2ar) After the $ietnam 7ar, a $ea,ened and inward-loo:ing America prompted some

Asian countries to start their own nucear"$eapons programmes, embodened

"slamic undamentaists to attac, American interests, and encouraged the Soviet #nion to occu+yAfghanistan) 7hile there are some who say this couldn't ha++en today, that America couldn't +ull u+ thedrawbridge and retreat behind the +ara+ets, recent o+inion +olls in the #nited States reveal a +reference for

isolationism not seen since the end of the $ietnam 7ar) It is hard to imagine any scenario in$hich an isoated, disengaged United States $oud be a better friend and ally to other countries,

better promote goba prosperity, more orceuy endorse democracy, social

Iustice and human dignity, or do more to enhance +eace and security)

4isease spread $i cause e0tinction Nu +. [$ictoria, &!uman (9tinction The #ncertainty of Gur 5ate,* artmouth Hournal of #ndergraduate Science, 6ay 22, htt+duIs)dartmouth)edus+ring-2..human-e9tinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate

In the past/ humans have indeed aen victim to viruses ) Perha+s the best-:nowncase was the bubonic +lague that :illed u+ to one third of the (uro+ean +o+ulation in the mid-1/th century VJ<)

2hie vaccines have been deveoped or the pague and some otherinectious diseases/ ne$ vira strains are constanty emerging a processthat maintains the possibiity o a pandemic"aciitated human e0tinction3 Some surveyed students mentioned A"S as a +otential +andemic-causing virus) "t is true that scientists have beenunable thus far to =nd a sustainable cure for A"S, mainly due to !"$Qs ra+id and constant evolution) S+eci=cally,two factors account for the virusQs abnormally high mutation rate 1) !"$Qs use of reverse transcri+tase, which doesnot have a +roof-reading mechanism, and 2) the lac: of an error-correction mechanism in !"$ ?A +olymerase VK<)

http://dujs.dartmouth.edu/spring-2009/human-extinction-the-uncertainty-of-our-fate






14

%uc:ily, though, there are certain characteristics of !"$ that ma:e it a +oor candidate for a large-scale globalinfection !"$ can lie dormant in the human body for years without manifesting itself, and A"S itself does not :ill

directly, but rather through the wea:ening of the immune system) !owever, or more easiytransmitted viruses such as in=uenJa/ the evoution o ne$ strains coudprove ar more conse<uentia3 The simutaneous occurrence o antigenicdrit point mutations that ead to ne$ strainsG and antigenic shit the

inter"species transer o diseaseG in the in=uenJa virus coud produce ane$ version o in=uenJa or $hich scientists may not immediatey nd acure3 Since in=uenJa can spread <uic,y/ this ag time coud potentiayead to a Bgoba in=uenJa pandemic/ according to the Centers or4isease Contro and 8revention V<) The most recent scare of this variety came in 11K when birdu managed to :ill over 0. million +eo+le around the world in what is sometimes referred to as the S+anish u

+andemic) Perha+s even more rightening is the act that ony '# mutations $erere<uired to convert the origina vira strain $hich coud ony inect birds into a human"viabe strain V1.<)



1J

Economy



1K

US econ do$n

US economic gro$th is aiing" ris, o do$nturn is highSnyder '"'+-13 [6ichael T) Snyder is a graduate of the 6c"ntire School ofCommerce at the #niversity of $irginia with two law degrees from the #niversity of5lorida, &2. Signs That The #)S) (conomy "s headed 5or ig Trouble "n The Coming6onths Ahead,* htt+theeconomiccolla+seblog)comarchives2.-signs-that-the-u-s-economy-is-heading-for-big-trouble-in-the-months-ahead

"s the #)S) economy about to e9+erience a maIor downturn> #nfortunately, thereare a whole bunch of signs that economic activity in the # nited S tates is reallyslowing down right now) 5reight volumes and freight e9+enditures are way down,consumer con=dence has declined shar+ly, maIor retail chains all over America are closinghundreds of stores, and the Fse;uesterF threatens to give the American +eo+le their =rst signi=canto++ortunity to e9+erience what FausterityF tastes li:e) Las +rices are going u+ ra+idly, cor+orate insiders aredum+ing massive amounts of stoc: and there are high +ro=le cor+orate ban:ru+tcies in the news almost everysingle day now) "n many ways, what we are going through right now feels very similar to 2..K before the crashha++ened) ac: then the warning signs of economic trouble were very obvious, but our +oliticians and themainstream media insisted that everything was Iust =ne, and the stoc: mar:et was very much detached fromreality) 7hen the stoc: mar:et did =nally catch u+ with reality, it ha++ened very, very ra+idly) Sadly, most +eo+le do

not a++ear to have learned any lessons from the crisis of 2..K) Americans continue to rac: u+staggering amounts of debt, and 7all Street is more rec:less than ever ) As a society, weseem to have concluded that 2..K was Iust a tem+orary malfunction rather than an indication that our entiresystem was fundamentally awed) "n the end, we will +ay a great +rice for our overcon=dence and ourrec:lessness) 7ith southern (uro+e's de+ression dam+ening continental demand for goods made in Lermany andother northern (uro+ean nations, the +ros+ects for #)S) e9+orts and cut-+riced com+etition from (uro+e in #)S)

mar:ets is heating u+ -- growth and Iobs creation could stay de+ressed for a long time )8 Similarly, the Ha+anese +rime minister's much-heralded stimulus and reforms a++ear to come down to debasing thenation's currency to Iac: u+ e9+orts to ?orth America and very little else) %abor mar:et reforms have been shelved,and there's no sign Ha+an will ease immigration +olicy or +rovide new incentives for family formation to counter itsdeclining +o+ulation) That s+ells yet more cut-rate com+etition for #)S) manufacturers)8 "t is hard to imagine the5ederal Eeserve could do more to su++ort growth) Already, it is buying virtually all the new mortgage-bac:edsecurities and J.M of the new federal debt issued each month)8 This is :ee+ing interest rates low and boosting new

home construction, but new home construction is less than 3M of the economy and cannotcarry the recovery)

The US economy is set to decine" recovery $i ai)orici "5-13 [Peter, Dahoo 5inance contributor, &(conomy Adds 1J0,... Hobs, but

Trouble %ies Ahead,* htt+=nance)yahoo)comnewseconomy-adds-1J0-...-Iobs-1303..411)html

The %abor e+artment announced 5riday that the economy added 1J0,... Iobs in 6ay,

but that is hardly the 34.,... Iobs needed each month to bring unem+loymentdown to 4M over the ne9t three years) 8 The Iobless rate remained steady rose to

J)4M, from J)0M in A+ril)8 Adding in discouraged adults and +art-timers who want full-time Iobs, theunem+loyment rate becomes 13)KM) And, for many years, ination-adIusted wages have been falling and income

ine;uality rising -- this remains a buyers mar:et)8 Sluggish growth is one cul+rit -- the ush e9+ansiondelivered only 2)1M annual LP growth -- that's about the same as the Gbama recovery after /0 months) 8 ?ow,defense cutbac:s negotiated with Congress during President Gbama's =rst term have subtracted some 42 billionfrom federal s+ending since last fall, and an additional 2.. billion in higher ta9es and se;uestration s+ending cutsare further reducing consumer outlays and government s+ending in the second and third ;uarters of this year) 8

7ith all this =scal drag, economists e9+ect growth to slow to less than 2M in the second;uarter, and Iobs creation is li:ely to slow through the s+ring and summer )

http://theeconomiccollapseblog.com/archives/20-signs-that-the-u-s-economy-is-heading-for-big-trouble-in-the-months-ahead


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economy-adds-175-000-jobs-135300611.html








1

Cuban econ do$n

Cuba%s economy is strugging" iting the embargo is ,ey>ortner %1' [6elissa %oc:hart, Senior (9ternal Aairs GXcer at Paci=c Council on"nternational Policy, &Cuba reforms "m+ortant changes, but +ace is slow,* Gctober3, htt+www)csmonitor)com7orldAmericas%atin-America-6onitor2.121..3Cuba-reforms-"m+ortant-changes-but-+ace-is-slow

Cuba faces some of the same challenges it has for years) !ow does one encourage wor:ers toinnovate and increase +roductivity when there are no material incentives for doing so> !ow can the countrysmoothly transition from a centrally-controlled Communist country to whatever it is becoming as it incor+orates

means for e9+anding the +rivate sector> !ow does one eectively manage the countryQs use of twocurrencies and mitigate the +olariBing eect this can have in terms of income dis+arities for individuals with

access to only one of those two currencies>8 And there are other challenges facing the country which :ee+ iton rather fragile footing) Attracting foreign investment remains a challenge whenforeigners cannot be con=dent that their investments will be com+letely safe, given +ast e9+erience in Cuba andother nations, li:e $eneBuela) The Chinese are doing a fair amount of business in Cuba these days, including in oil,

and economic inde+endence via a maIor oil discovery remains a ho+e for !avana ut thus far, all wellshave come u+ dry or disa++ointing) And of course, there is the #S embargo)8 es+ite all,CubaQs economic growth in the =rst half of 2.12 came in at a res+ectable 2)1 +ercent etter growth than was seenin the #nited States, in fact) Cuba is trading actively with +artners li:e $eneBuela, China, S+ain, raBil, and Canada,and even with the #nited States in select industries that meet regulations im+osed around the broader embargo) 8 As in 6yanmar, where reforms are +roceeding at a somewhat ;uic:er Vor at least more +ublicly visible< +ace, the

+rogress is im+erfect) "t is +iecemeal) And it is not com+lete) "n 6yanmar, many +oliticaldetainees remain im+risoned, and clashes between urmese military and local insurgent grou+s continue) DetSecretary of State !illary Clinton visited the country at the end of last year to a++laud its +rogress on a number ofother fronts U establishment of the ?ational !uman Eights Commission, general amnesties of more than 2..+olitical +risoners, institution of new labor laws that allow labor unions and stri:es, rela9ation of +ress censorshi+,and regulations of currency +ractices U and since then, 7ashington has rela9ed sanctions and steadily reestablisheddi+lomatic relations in a way that has allowed the #nited States to re-engage and be an active +art of the reformsand transitions ta:ing +lace)8 All this regarding a country with little strategic interest for the #nited States given itsgeogra+hic location half way around the world) Cuba, too, released many of the individuals identi=ed as +olitical+risoners by the international community) Gther reforms have involved e9+anding the +ersonal economic rights

available to Cubans)8 !uge issues still e9ist ) Activists are regularly im+risoned for s+ea:ing out) Private

sector entre+reneurs face a range of bureaucratic and su++ly challenges ) ut there isan o+ening during the current transition to ma:e many more changes that theinternational community has as:ed to see but not often actively engaged to assist in moving forward) 8 7eQve seen

it ha++en with 6yanmar surely there is room for similar +rocesses of re-engagement withCuba, at least after ?ov) 4, as it moves through its own transition +eriod)

Cuba%s economy $on%t improve much" gains $i unraveSuivan "1'-13 [6ar:, S+ecialist in %atin American Aairs for the CongressionalEesearch Service, &Cuba #)S) Policy and "ssues for the 113th Congress,*htt+f+c)state)govdocumentsorganiBation21.1)+df

Since 2.1., however, growth has im+roved, with 2)/M growth in 2.1. and estimated growth 8 rates of 2)KM and

3)1M in 2.11 and 2.12, res+ectively) The forecast for 2.13 is 3)0M growth) 8 eyond that, some observers

maintain that CubaQs eorts to e9+and the +rivate sector and boost 8 +roductivity, along with

favorable e9ternal conditions, could increase hel+ growth to over /M 8 beginning in 2.10, although a

withdrawal of su++ort from $eneBuela would Ieo+ardiBe these 8 forecasts)24 Some economists, however,

maintain that Cuba needs a growth rate of at least 0 to 8 JM in order to develo+ theeconomy and create new IobsOincreasing internal savings and 8 attracting foreign investmentre+ortedly are :eys to achieving such growth rates)2J

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Americas/Latin-America-Monitor/2012/1003/Cuba-reforms-Important-changes-but-pace-is-slow


http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/210919.pdf



http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/210919.pdf



2.



21

8an soves USCuban econ

(iting the embargo strengthens the US and Cuban economy6ando$ *1' [oug andow is a senior fellow at the Cato "nstitute and a formers+ecial assistant to former #S +resident Eonald Eeagan, &Time to (nd the Cuba(mbargo,* ecember 11, htt+www)cato)org+ublicationscommentarytime-end-cuba-embargo

There is essentially no international su++ort for continuing the embargo ) 5or instance, the(uro+ean #nion +lans to e9+lore im+roving relations with !avana) S+ainQs e+uty 5oreign 6inister LonBalo deenito e9+lained that the (# saw a +ositive evolution in Cuba) The ho+e, then, is to move forward in therelationshi+ between the (uro+ean #nion and Cuba)8 The administration should move now, before congressmen are

focused on the ne9t election) President Gbama should +ro+ose legislation to dro+ Vor at least

signi=cantly loosen< the embargo) !e also could use his authority to rela9 sanctions by, for instance, granting

more licenses to visit the island)8 (nding the embargo would have obvious economic bene=tsfor both Cubans and Americans ) The #)S) "nternational Trade Commission estimatesAmerican losses alone from the embargo as much as 1)2 billion annually )8

(9+anding economic o++ortunities also might increase +ressure within Cuba forfurther economic reform) So far the regime has ta:en small ste+s, but reIected signi=cant change)6oreover, thrusting more Americans into Cuban society could hel+ undermine the ruling system) es+ite 5idel

CastroQs decline, Cuban +olitics remains largely static) A few human rights activists have beenreleased, while Eaul Castro has used +arty +urges to entrench loyal elites)8 %ifting the embargo would be no+anacea) Gther countries invest in and trade with Cuba to no obvious +olitical im+act) And the lac: of wides+readeconomic reform ma:es it easier for the regime rather than the +eo+le to collect the bene=ts of trade, in contrast to

China) Still, more #)S) contact would have an im+act ) Argued trade s+ecialist an

Lriswold, &American tourists would boost the earnings of Cubans who rent rooms, drive

ta9is, sell art, and o+erate restaurants in their homes) Those dollars would then =nd their way tothe hundreds of freely +riced farmers mar:ets, to car+enters, re+airmen, tutors,food venders, and other entre+reneurs)*8 The Castro dictatorshi+ ultimately will endu+ in historyQs dustbin) ut it will continue to cause much human hardshi+ along the way) 8 The !eritage5oundationQs Hohn Sweeney com+lained nearly two decades ago that &the #nited States must not abandon theCuban +eo+le by rela9ing or lifting the trade embargo against the communist regime)* ut the dead hand of half acentury of failed +olicy is the worst breach of faith with the Cuban +eo+le)8 %ifting sanctions would be a victory notfor 5idel Castro, but for the +ower of free +eo+le to s+read liberty) As Lriswold argued, &commercial engagement isthe best way to encourage more o+en societies abroad)* Gf course, there are no guarantees) ut lifting theembargo would have a greater li:elihood of success than continuing a +olicy which has failed) Some day the Cuban+eo+le will be free) Allowing more contact with Americans li:ely would ma:e that day come sooner)

Economic engagement is ,ey to the US and (atin AmericaneconomiesIA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+

The #nited States and %atin America,* A+ril,

htt+www)thedialogue)orgPublication5iles"A2.12PolicyEe+ort5"?A%)+df

(9+anded trade, investment, and energy coo+eration oer the greatest +romise for robust#S-%atin American relations ) "nde+endent of 8 government +olicies, these areas have seen tremendous

growth and develo+ment, driven chiey by the +rivate sector ) The #S government needs to 8 bettera++reciate the rising im+ortance of %atin AmericaOwith its e9+anding mar:ets for#S e9+orts, burgeoning o++ortunities for #S investments, 8 enormous reserves ofenergy and minerals, and continuing su++ly of 8 needed laborOfor the longer term+erformance of the #S economy )8 7ith raBil and many other %atin American economies thriving and

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/time-end-cuba-embargo








22

showing +romise for sustained ra+id growth and rising incomes, the search for 8 economic o++ortunities has

become the main force sha+ing relationshi+s in 8 the hemis+here ) "ntensive economic engagement bythe #nited States may 8 be the best foundation for wider +artnershi+s across manyissues as well as 8 the best way to energiBe currently listless #S relations with the region )8 7hat %atin AmericaQslargely middle and u++er middle income countriesO8 and their increasingly middle class +o+ulationsOmost wantand need from 8 the #nited States is access to its 14-trillion-a-year economy, which is more 8 than three times the

regionQs economies combined ) 6ost %atin American 8 nations e9+erienced ;uic:er recovery from the

=nancial crisis than did 8 the #nited States, and they are growing at a faster +ace ) ?onetheless, they 8 de+endon #S ca+ital for investment, #S mar:ets for their e9+orts, and #S 8 technology andmanagerial innovation to lift +roductivity ) They also rely on 8 the steady remittancesfrom their citiBens in the #nited States )



23

8an soves US econ

(iting the embargo soves US unempoyment and smabusinesses

Hanson et a 1"1-13 [aniel !anson is an economics researcher at the American(nter+rise "nstitute) ayne atten is aXliated with the #niversity of ?orth Carolinae+artment of Public Policy) !arrison (aley is a =nancial analyst, &"t's Time 5or The#)S) To (nd "ts Senseless (mbargo Gf Cuba,*htt+www)forbes)comsitesreals+in2.13.114its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba

Det, estimates of the sanctionsQ annual cost to the #)S) economy range from 1)2 to3)4 billion, according to the #)S) Chamber of Commerce) Eestrictions on tradedis+ro+ortionately aect #)S) small businesses who lac: the trans+ortation and=nancial infrastructure to s:irt the embargo ) These restrictions translate into realreductions in income and em+loyment for Americans in states li:e 5lorida, where theunem+loyment rate currently stands at K)1 +ercent)

(atin America is vita to the US economyIA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+


7hile %atin America has been diversifying its international economic ties, 8 the regionQs e9+andingeconomies have become more critical to #S economic growth and stability ) Today the#nited States e9+orts more to %atin 8 America than it does to (uro+e\ twice as much to

6e9ico than it does to 8 China\ and more to Chile and Colombia than it does to Eussia ) 8 (ven a cursorye9amination of the numbers +oints to how much the #nited 8 States de+ends on theregion for oil and minerals ) %atin America accounts 8 for a third of #S oil im+orts ) 6e9ico is the second-biggest su++lier after 8 Canada ) $eneBuela, raBil, and Colombia sit among the to+ doBen, and 8 im+orts from raBilare +oised to rise shar+ly with its recent oshore discoveries ) 7ithin a decade, raBil and 6e9ico may be two of thethree largest su++liers of oil to the #nited States ) The +otential for heightened energy 8 coo+eration in the

Americas is huge, with wide-ranging rami=cations for 8 economic well-being and climate change )8 %atinAmerica is an im+ortant destination for #S direct and +ortfolio investments,absorbing each year about eight +ercent of all #S overseas investment )8 At the sametime, %atin American investment in the #nited States is growing fast ) And no economic calculus should omit thevital value to the #S economy of immigrant wor:ers\ #S agriculture and construction industries 8 are heavily

de+endent on them ) These wor:ers, mostly from %atin America, 8 will drive the bul: of #Slabor force growth in the ne9t decade and are 8 im+ortant elements in :ee+ing socialsecurity solvent over the longer term)

The pan boosts ,ey sectors o the US economy(oyd %1+ [elia, senior +olicy manager at C 6edia Action, &Ten Eeasons to %iftthe Cuba (mbargo,* htt+www)+oliticsdaily)com2.1..K2/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cuba-embargo

http://www.forbes.com/sites/realspin/2013/01/16/its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba/








2/

1) "t's good economics) "t's long been recogniBed that o+ening u+ Cuba to Americaninvestment would be a huge boon to the tourism industry in both countries) Accordingto the Cuban government, 20.,... Cuban-Americans visited from the #nited States in 2.., u+ from roughly

1J.,... the year before, suggesting a +ent-u+ demand) %ifting the embargo would also be anenormous boon the #)S) agricultural sector ) Gne 2.. study estimated that doingaway with all =nancing and travel restrictions on #)S) agricultural e9+orts to Cuba

would have boosted 2..K dairy sales to that country from 13 million to between3 million and KJ million, increasing #)S) mar:et share from 4 +ercent to between1K and /2 +ercent)



20

Impacts" Economy

Economic decine causes every ma;or impact9reen *+. [6ichael H), Senior Advisor and Ha+an Chair at the Center for Strategicand "nternational Studies VCS"S< and Associate Professor at Leorgetown #niversity)Asia Times Gnline, 3)24),htt+www)atimes)comatimesAsian`(conomy@C24:.1)html A 43..

5acing the worst economic crisis since the Lreat e+ression, analysts at the 7orld an: and

the #S Central "ntelligence Agency are Iust beginning to contem+late the rami=cations forinternational stability if there is not a recovery in the ne9t year ) 5or the most +art, thefocus has been on fragile states such as some in (astern (uro+e ) !owever, the Lreate+ression taught us that a downward global economic s+iral can even have Iarringim+acts on great +owers) "t is no mere coincidence that the last great globaleconomic downturn was followed by the most destructive war in human history) "nthe 13.s, economic des+eration hel+ed fuel autocratic regimes and +rotectionismin a downward economic-security death s+iral that engulfed the world in conict ) Thiss+iral was aided by the +reoccu+ation of the #nited States and other leading nations with economic troubles athome and insuXcient attention to wor:ing with other +owers to maintain stability abroad) Today's challenges aredierent, yet 133's %ondon (conomic Conference, which failed to sto+ the drift toward dee+er de+ression andworld war, should be a cautionary tale for leaders heading to ne9t month's %ondon Lrou+ of 2. VL-2.< meeting)

There is no ;uestion the #S must urgently act to address ban:ing issues and torestart its economy ) ut the lessons of the +ast suggest that we will also have to:ee+ an eye on those fragile threads in the international system that could begin tounravel if the =nancial crisis is not reversed early in the arac: Gbamaadministration and realiBe that economics and security are intertwined in most ofthe critical challenges we face) A disillusioned rising +ower> 5our areas in Asia merit +articular attention,although so far the current =nancial crisis has not changed Asia's fundamental strategic +icture) China is notre+lacing the #S as regional hegemon, since the leadershi+ in eiIing is too nervous about the +olitical im+licationsof the =nancial crisis at home to actually +lay a leading role in solving it internationally) Predictions that the #S willbe brought to its :nees because China is the leading holder of #S debt often miss :ey +oints) China's currencycontrols and full em+loymente9+ort-oriented growth strategy give eiIing few choices other than buying #S Treasury bills or harming its own economy) Eather than creating new rules or institutions in international =nance, orreorienting the Chinese economy to generate greater long-term consumer demand at home, Chinese leaders aredes+erately clinging to the status ;uo Vthough eiIing deserves credit for short-term eorts to stimulate economicgrowth<) The greater danger with China is not an ecli+sing of #S leadershi+, but instead the :ind of shift in strategicorientation that ha++ened to Ha+an after the Lreat e+ression) Ha+an was arguably not a revisionist +ower before132 and sought instead to converge with the global economy through o+en trade and ado+tion of the gold

standard) The worldwide de+ression and +rotectionism of the 13.s devastated thenewly e9+osed Ha+anese economy and contributed directly to militaristic andautar:ic +olicies in Asia as the Ha+anese +eo+le reacted against what counted forglobaliBation at the time) China today is similarly converging with the globaleconomy, and many e9+erts believe China needs at least KM annual growth to sustain social stability) Eealisticgrowth +redictions for 2.. are closer to 0M) $eteran China hands were watching closely when millions of migrantwor:ers returned to wor: after the %unar ?ew Dear holiday last month to =nd factories closed and Iobs gone) There

were +oc:ets of +rotests, but nationwide unrest seems unli:ely this year, and Chinese leaders are wor:ing aroundthe cloc: to ensure that it does not ha++en ne9t year either) !owever, the economic slowdown has only Iust begunand nobody is certain how it will im+act the social contract in China between the ruling communist +arty and the1)3 billion Chinese who have come to see President !u Hintao's call for Fharmonious societyF as ine9tricably lin:ed tohis +romise of F+eaceful develo+mentF) "f the Ha+anese e9am+le is any +recedent, a sustained economic slowdownhas the +otential to o+en a dangerous +ath from economic nationalism to strategic revisionism in China too)

angerous states "t is noteworthy that ?orth @orea, 6yanmar and "ran have allintensi=ed their de=ance in the wa:e of the =nancial crisis , which has distracted theworld's leading nations, limited their moral authority and sown +otential discord)7ith eiIing worried about the +otential im+act of ?orth @orean belligerence or



24

instability on Chinese internal stability, and leaders in Ha+an and South @orea undersiege in +arliament because of the colla+se of their stoc: mar:ets, leaders in the?orth @orean ca+ital of Pyongyang have grown increasingly boisterous about theircountry's claims to great +ower status as a nuclear wea+ons state ) The Iunta in 6yanmarhas chosen this moment to arrest hundreds of +olitical dissidents and thumb its nose at fellow members of the 1.-country Association of Southeast Asian ?ations) "ran continues its nuclear +rogram while e9+loiting dierencesbetween the #S, #@ and 5rance Vor the P-3 grou+< and China and Eussia - dierences that could become more+ronounced if economic friction with eiIing or Eussia crowds out coo+eration or if 7estern (uro+ean governments

grow nervous about sanctions as a tool of +olicy) "t is +ossible that the economic downturn willma:e these dangerous states more +liable because of falling fuel +rices V"ran< andgreater need for foreign aid V?orth @orea and 6yanmar<, but that may de+end onthe e9tent that authoritarian leaders care about the well-being of their +eo+le orface internal +olitical +ressures lin:ed to the economy) So far, there is little evidence tosuggest either and much evidence to suggest these dangerous states see ano++ortunity to advance their asymmetrical advantages against the internationalsystem)

I the recession turns into a depression/ mutipe scenarios onucear $ar ta,e pace:James Cusick , 3/18/2009 Sunday Herald (Scotland)http://www.sundayherald.com/oped/opnon/dsplay.!ar.2"#$"%8.0.dont&'an&on&nancal&trou

'le&'en*&resol!ed&wthout&conlct.php

"'m not saying that America is about to declare war on China, or that Lermany is going to invade 5rance) ut

there are +rofound economic stresses in central (uro+e that could ra+idly turn intoconict in the ban:ru+t altic states, !ungary, #:raine) And if the Lreat Eecession,

as the "65's omini;ue Strauss-@ahn called it last wee:, turns into a Lreat e+ression, with a +rolonged

colla+se in international trade and =nancial ows, then we could see countries li:e Pa:istan

disintegrate into nucear anarchy and $ar with neighbouring "ndia, which

will itself be e9+eriencing wides+read social unrest) Colla+sing China could see civil war too\ Ha+an

will li:ely re-arm\ Eussia will see: to e9+and its s+here of economic interests ) ?eed "to go on>

US economic decine causes great 2)4 $arsNyquist ‘05 [H)E) renowned e9+ert in geo+olitics and international relations,7orld?etaily contributing editor, &The Political Conse;uences of a 5inancial Crash,*5ebruary /, www)=nancialsense)comstormw)))2..0.2./)html

Shoud the United States e0perience a severe economic contractionduring the second term o 8resident 6ush, the American peope $i li:elysu++ort +oliticians who advocate urther restrictions and controls on our

mar,et economy U guaranteeing its strangulation and the steady +au+eriBationof the country) "n Congress today, Sen) (dward @ennedy su++orts nearly all theeconomic dogmas listed above) "t is easy to see, therefore, that the comingeconomic contraction, due in +art to a +olicy of massive credit e9+ansion, willhave serious +olitical conse;uences for the Ee+ublican Party Vto the bene=t of theemocrats<) 5urthermore, an economic contraction $i encourage theormation o anti"capitaist ma;orities and a turning a$ay rom the reemar,et system 3 The danger here is not merely economic) The +olitical lefto+enly favors the coapse o America%s strategic position abroad) The



2J

$ithdra$a o the # nited S tates rom the )idde East/ the >ar East andEurope $oud catastrophicay impact an internationa system thatpresenty ao$s biion peope to ive on the earth%s surace in reativepeace ) Should anti-ca+italist dogmas overwhelm the global mar:et and tradingsystem that evolved under American leadershi+, the panet%s economy $oudcontract and untod miions $oud die o starvation) Fationaistic

totaitarianism/ ueed by a poitics o bame/ $oud once again bring$ar to Asia and Europe 3 ut this time the $ar $oud be $aged $ith massdestruction $eapons and the #nited States would be blamed because it is thecenter of global ca+italism) 5urthermore, if the anti-ca+italist +arty gains +ower in7ashington, $e can e0pect to see poicies o appeasement and uniateradisarmament enacted3 American a++easement and disarmament, in thisconte9t, would be an admission of guilt before the court of world o+inion) &ussiaand China, above all, $oud e0poit this admission to ;ustiy aggressive$ars/ invasions and mass destruction attac,s) A uture nancia crash,therefore, must be prevented at a costs) ut we cannot do this) As oneobserver recently lamented, &7e dran: the +oison and now we must die)*

Economic decine causes nucear and bioogica $ar

Kerpen *+7 [Gct) 2K +olicy director for Americans for Pros+erity, Phil, 5rom Panic toe+ression>, htt+article)nationalreview)com>;_G73^LDB^Ty^LD/^75i^7#9?mDw^THi?7$:6T"96m#_

"tQs im+ortant that we avoid all these +olicy errors O not Iust for the sa:e of our+ros+erity, but for our survival) The Lreat e+ression, after all, didnQt end until theadvent of 7orld 7ar "", the most destructive war in the history of the +lanet) "n a world ofnuclear and biological wea+ons and non-state terrorist organiBations that breed on+overty and des+air, another global economic brea:down of such e9tended duration

would ris: armed conicts on an even greater scale )

Coapse o the economy ris,s end o the panet T) () 6earden/ '+++ %TC, #)S) Army VEetired<, C(G, CT(C "nc), irector, Associationof istinguished American Scientists VAAS<, 5ellow (meritus, Al+ha 5oundation's"nstitute for Advanced Study VA"AS<

Hune 2/, 2... V!DP(E%"?@ Fhtt+www)seas+ower)com(nergyCrisis-earden)htmFhtt+www)seas+ower)com(nergyCrisis-earden)htm<

As the colla+se of the 7estern economies nears, one may e9+ect catastro+hicstress on the 14. develo+ing nations as the develo+ed nations are forced to

dramatically curtail orders) "nternational Strategic Threat As+ects !istory bears outthat des+erate nations ta:e des+erate actions ) Prior to the =nal economic colla+se,the stress on nations will have increased the intensity and number of their conicts,to the +oint where the arsenals of wea+ons of mass destruction V76< now+ossessed by some 20 nations, are almost certain to be reeased) As an e9am+le,su++ose a starving ?orth @orea [J launches nuclear wea+ons u+on Ha+an and South @orea, including #)S) forcesthere, in a s+asmodic suicidal res+onse) Gr su++ose a des+erate China O whose long-range nuclear missiles Vsome<

can reach the #nited States O attac:s Taiwan) " n addition to immediate res+onses, the mutualtreaties involved in such scenarios will ;uic:ly draw other nations into the conict,

http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=OWQ3ZGYzZTQyZGY4ZWFiZWUxNmYwZTJiNWVkMTIxMmU=


http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm



http://www.seaspower.com/EnergyCrisis-Bearden.htm



2K

escalating it signi=cantly) Strategic nuclear studies have shown for decades that,under such e9treme stress conditions, once a few nu:es are launched, adversariesand +otential adversaries are then com+elled to launch on +erce+tion of+re+arations by one's adversary) The real legacy of the 6A conce+t is this side of the 6A coin thatis almost never discussed) 7ithout eective defense, the only chance a nation has to survive at all is to launchimmediate full-bore +re-em+tive stri:es and try to ta:e out its +erceived foes as ra+idly and massively as +ossible)

As the studies showed, ra+id escalation to full 76 e9change occurs) Today, a great+ercent of the 76 arsenals that will be unleashed, are already on site within the# nited S tates itself [K) The resulting great Armageddon will destroy civiliBationas we :now it, and +erha+s most of the bios+here , at least for many decades)



2

Impacts" Hegemony

A proonged recession $i undermine US eadershipruce Crumey/ '++. Vsta writer, 5ebruary 20, 2..) Gnline) "nternet) Accessed,A+ril 1, 2..) Vhtt+watchmannewsletter)ty+e+ad)comnews2...2is-the-economic-crisis-a-security-threat-too)html<

Part of the strategic challenge +osed by the downturn lies in the realm of theeconomy itself) (merging +owers such as China or "ndia could ta,e theopportunity presented by U3S3 economic $ea,ness to e0tend their o$nin=uence in regions traditionay dominated by the U3S3 China , in +articular,has already established itself as a maIor +layer in %atin America and Africa, and it isinvesting heavily in e9tractive industries across the globe right now, +rocuringenergy su++lies O most recently in new oil deals in:ed with Eussia, $eneBuela andraBil O and other natural resources for its industrial economy )

9oba nucear $ar+almay Khalilzad, 1##$ -, he ashn*ton uarterly, Sprn*

nder the thrd opton, the nted States would see to retan *lo'al leadershp and to preclude the rse o a

*lo'al r!al or a return to multpolarty or the ndente uture. 4n 'alance, ths s the 'est lon*5term *udn*

prncple and !son. Such a !son s desra'le not as an end n tsel, 'ut 'ecause a world in which theU nited S tates exercises leadership would have tremendous advantages . 6rst, the *lo'al

en!ronment would 'e more open and more recept!e to -mercan !alues 55 democracy, ree marets, and the

rule o law. Second, such a world would have a better chance of dealing cooperatively with

the world7s maor pro'lems, such as nuclear proliferation, threats of regional hegemony byrenegade states, and low-level conflicts. 6nally, U.S. leadership would help preclude therise of another hostile global rival, enabling the nted States and the world to avoid another

global cold or hot war and all the attendant dangers, including a global nuclearexchange. .S. leadershp would thereore 'e more conduc!e to *lo'al sta'lty than a 'polar or a multpolar

'alance o power system.

http://watchmannewsletter.typepad.com/news/2009/02/is-the-economic-crisis-a-security-threat-too.html






3.

Impacts" China $ar

The oss o US competitiveness eads to miitary conrontationsand demoniJation o China:

Hames 8etras/ '++# Vformer Professor of Sociology at inghamton<) Gctober22) &Statism or 5ree 6ar:ets>*

htt+www)counter+unch)org+etras1.222..0)htmlThe )yth o the PChina ThreatP Instead o accepting the economicchaenge rom China and recogniBing the need for re-thin:ing the misallocations of resources and the

over-reliance on the +a+er economy, retrograde business eites and overpaid tradeunion bosses have ;oined orces $ith neo"conservative ideoogues in

promoting the idea o China as a nationa security threat $hich needs to

be conronted miitariy3 The usion o miitarism abroad and

protectionism at home has gained many adherents in Congress and in the

e0ecutive branch setting the stage or a se"uing prophecy ) 5aced with

increasingly bellicose rhetoric from 7ashington, China loo:s eastward toward strengthening its military andeconomic ties with Eussia and Central Asia while diversifying its trade with Asia, %atin America, the 6iddle (ast and

Africa) US miitant Pprotectionist miitarismP $ith its conrontationaapproach to China threatens to boc, the ree mar,et o ,no$edge andtechnoogy) China's dynamic growth is not +rimarily based on Fchea+ laborF it relies on the +roduction ofmillions of highly trained scienti=c and +rofessional wor:ers each year) (ach year tens of thousands of Chinesestudents, +rofessors and scientists train abroad many in the #S) $ery few #S students +ursue advanced degrees inscience and engineering, with the result that foreign students including Chinese are increasingly critical to the #Sscience wor:force) "n this free ow of ideas and scientists, both China and the #S theoretically bene=t from a Ffreemar:etF +ers+ective) ut as we have argued the #S is o++osed to the free mar:et es+ecially in the free ow ofscienti=c ':now-how') The #S is doing everything +ossible to restrict the e9change of scientists, technology and:nowledge by a wide-ranging de=nition of Fnational securityF) Liven their military de=nition of the China challenge,7ashington argues that Chinese students and scholars should be restricted in what they study, what they learn aswell as their access to technology) #niversities, under Pentagon and e+artment of Commerce ruling, would have tosecure s+ecial licenses and mar: restricted areas within laboratories to +revent foreign students from using

su+ercom+uters, semiconductors, lasers and sensors in their research) The e+artment of Commerce +lans totighten controls in the e9+ort of commercial technologies V5inancial Times Se+t) 1, 2..0 + 11<) 5rom a free mar:et+ers+ective #S e9+ort controls to China are self-defeating, lessening e9+orts thus increasing the trade de=cit, andhave little im+act on China's access to technology via Ha+an, @orea and (uro+e) "n contrast, in Huly 2..0 the(uro+ean #nion signed contracts with China to develo+ commercial usages of the Lalileo satellite navigation

system) >rom a miitarist"protectionist perspective the restrictions on ideasand the ree circuation o scientists and students can be seen as part o acampaign o poitica and perhaps miitary conrontation and encircement3

MChina bashingM is merey a response to the oss o competitiveness3

Fationaist demagogy in a decining goba po$er is a compensatory

mechanism or the aiure o US capitaism to ,eep up $ith the

competition at east rom its ocus in the US economy3

That ris,s a nucear $ar:"van Eand/ '++# VSenior 5ellow and irector of the Center on Peace Y %iberty<

6ay 31, 2..0) Accessed August 21, 2.1. htt+www)inde+endent)orgnewsroomarticle)as+>id_1010

At a recent hearing on Ca+itol !ill, senators of both parties berated the 6ushadministration%s aiure to ratchet up the pressure on China to reduce thevaue o its currency/ the yuan, by branding that nation as a &currency mani+ulator)* The lawma:ers also

com+lained that the value of Ha+anQs yen is too high) 6ut such U3S 3 government intererence in

http://www.counterpunch.org/petras10222005.html

http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1515

http://www.counterpunch.org/petras10222005.html

http://www.independent.org/newsroom/article.asp?id=1515



31

overseas commerce is ultimately c ounterproductive and coud ead to a greaterris, o con=ict $ith other nations 3 Gn foreign currencies, as with many issues, members ofCongress res+ond to the needs of +owerful, but narrow, s+ecial interests at the e9+ense of the general +ublic,whose +ower and interests are more diuse) "nuential #)S) industries that sell overseas face com+etition fromChinese and Ha+anese e9+orts made chea+er by the yuan and yen, currencies that many economists say are heldbelow mar:et value by their res+ective governments) Since 10, the Chinese government has =9ed the yuanQsvalue at K)2K +er dollar) The Ha+anese central ban:, with more subtlety, +urchased large ;uantities of dollars in

2..3 to drive u+ the value of the dollar vis--vis the yen) Although Ha+an ;uit that +ractice in 6arch 2../, Ha+aneseoXcials have threatened to resume it if the yen continues to rise against the dollar) "n addition to beingdisadvantaged in world mar:ets against chea+er Chinese and Ha+anese +roducts, the arti=cially low yuan and yenma:e #)S) e9+orts more e9+ensive in the large home mar:ets of China and Ha+an) Although #)S) e9+ort industriesare hurt by the lower yuan and yen, American consumers here at home enIoy chea+er im+orts from China and Ha+an) %ess is heard about the advantages to consumers of lower foreign currencies because consumers have farfewer lobbyists in 7ashington than do large e9+ort =rms) ?onetheless, the world would be a betterOand richerO+lace if the Chinese and Ha+anese governments avoided trying to inuence the value of their currencies and insteadallowed them to oat in international currency mar:ets) y distorting their own economies, those governments, li:emembers of the #)S) Congress, are su++orting +rominent e9+ort industries at the e9+ense of the commonconsumer) And while theyQre at it, China and Ha+an could further hel+ their consumers by more fully o+ening their

mar:ets to #)S) goods and services by easing tari and non-tari barriers) That said, the U3S 3

government shoud set a better e0ampe by avoiding the ,ind o pressure

on the Chinese and Ha+anese governments Vand any other government using similar +ractices<

that members o Congress are demanding) "f those governments want to shoot themselves

in the foot, there is no reason why the #nited States needs to shoot itself in the head) Setting a +recedent for U3S3government intererence in overseas commerce coud generate urther pressure bydomestic groupsOfor e9am+le, domestic industries that com+ete with im+orts from China and Ha+anO to

retaiate or Chinese and Ha+anese currency manipuation by resorting to

import barriers against +roducts from those countries) Some senators are already threatening to raisetaris against Chinese goods unless China raises the value of the yuan) And according to the 5inancial Times, theush administration is +rivately +assing along that threat to the Chinese, warning that the value of the yuan mustbe raised at least 1. +ercent to avoid that +rotectionist anger in Congress) VThe 1. +ercent =gure is an e9am+le ofgovernment bureaucrats inventing an arbitrary number and a++lying it to com+le9 international currency mar:ets)<

Thus, government intererence in the international mar:et+lace can utimatey ead to atrade $ar among nations) "n the 13.s, the Smoot-!awley legislation that increased taris in the #nitedStates was followed by retaliation from other nations) Such +rotectionism dee+ened the worldwide de+ression, and

that global economic crisis was a contributing factor to the causes of 7orld 7ar "") The United States

has enough tension $ith a nucear"armed China over the Tai$an issue and

dual military buildu+s $ithout inter;ecting a trade $ar into the mi03 In act/ aheathy eve o internationa commerce bet$een the t$o countries coud

create a peace obby in each nation and a greater incentive to avoid

miitary conrontation )



32

AT: 8ast recession disproves

4espite the past recession/ it coud be much $orse i $e can%tstave o? another do$nturn

&eich 5"1--1. [Eobert, +rofessor of +ublic +olicy at the #niversity of California ater:eley and former secretary of labor during the Clinton administration, &The rootof economic fragility and +olitical anger,*htt+www)salon)comnewsgreat`recession>story_newsfeature2.1..J13reich`economic`anger

The crash o '++7 didn%t turn into another 9reat 4epression because thegovernment earned the importance o =ooding the mar,et $ith cash/thereby temporariy rescuing some stranded consumers and most bigban,ers3 6ut the nancia rescue didn%t change the economy%s underyingstructure median $ages dropping $hie those at the top are ra,ing inthe ion%s share o income3 That%s $hy America%s midde cass sti doesn%t

have the purchasing po$er it needs to reboot the economy/ and $hy theso"caed recovery $i be so tepid maybe even eading to a doube dip 3It%s aso $hy America $i be vunerabe to even arger specuative boomsand deeper busts in the years to come)

Continued $orsening o the recession increases i,eihood o$arMead ‘09 9alter ussell, Senor 6ellow n .S. 6ore*n olcy at the ;ouncl on 6ore*n elatons, ew

epu'lc, 6e'ruary ", http://www.tnr.com/poltcs/story.html<d=$%1c'''#5288%5"d8158$"25#2e83#1$$8>p=2 ?

So ar, such hal5hearted e@perments not only ha!e aled to worA they ha!e let the socetes that ha!e tred them n a pro*ress!ely worse

poston, arther 'ehnd the ront5runners as tme *oes 'y. -r*entna has lost *round to ;hleA ussan de!elopment has allen arther 'ehnd that

o the Baltc states and ;entral Curope. 6reDuently, the crss has weaened the power o the merchants, ndustralsts, nancers, and

proessonals who want to de!elop a l'eral captalst socety nte*rated nto the world. Crisis can also strengthen the hand of religious extremists, oulist radicals, or authoritarian traditionalists who are determned to resst l'eral captalst socety

or a !arety o reasons. Eeanwhle, the companes and 'ans 'ased n these socetes are oten less esta'lshed and more !ulnera'le to the

conseDuences o a nancal crss than more esta'lshed rms n wealther socetes. -s a result, de!elopn* countres and countres where

captalsm has relat!ely recent and shallow roots tend to suer *reater economc and poltcal dama*e when crss stres55as, ne!ta'ly, t does.

-nd, conseDuently, nancal crses oten renorce rather than challen*e the *lo'al dstr'uton o power and wealth. hs may 'e happenn* yeta*an. one o whch means that we can ust st 'ac and enoy the recesson. Hstory may su**est that nancal crses actually help captalst

*reat powers mantan ther leads55'ut t has other, less reassurn* messa*es as well. !f financial crises ha"e #een a normal art of

life durn* the 3005year rse o the l'eral captalst system under the -n*lophone powers, so has $ar% &he $ars of the 'eague of

(ugs#urg and the )anish )uccession* the )e"en +ears ar* the (merican -e"olution* the Naoleonic ars*

the t$o orld ars* the cold $ar: he lst o wars s almost as lon* as the lst o nancal crses. .ad economic times can

#reed $ars. Curope was a pretty peaceul place n 1#28, 'ut the /eression oisoned erman u#lic oinion and heled

#ring (dolf 1itler to o$er% !f the current crisis turns into a deression, $hat rough #easts might start

slouching to$ard Mosco$, Karachi, .ei2ing, or Ne$ /elhi to #e #orn3 &he 4nited )tates may not, yet, declne, 'ut,

we can7t *et the world economy 'ac on trac, we may still ha"e to fight %

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2

http://www.tnr.com/politics/story.html?id=571cbbb9-2887-4d81-8542-92e83915f5f8&p=2



33

&eations



3/

6rin,

&eations are on the brin, IA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+


"f the #nited States and %atin America do not ma:e the eort now, the chance 8 maysli+ away) The most li:ely scenario then would be mar:ed by a continued drift in their relationshi+, furtherdeterioration of hemis+here-wide 8 institutions, a reduced ability and willingness to deal with a range of common+roblems, and a s+ate of missed o++ortunities for more robust growth and 8 greater social e;uity) The #nited Statesand %atin America would go their 8 se+arate ways, manage their aairs inde+endently of one another, and forego 8 the o++ortunities that could be harvested by a more +roductive relationshi+ ) 8 There are ris:s of sim+ly maintainingthe status ;uo) #rgent +roblems will 8 inevitably arise that re;uire trust and eective collaboration to resolve ) And 8

there is a chance that tensions between the #nited States and %atin America 8 couldbecome much worse, adversely aecting everyoneQs interests and wellbeing) "t is time to seiBe themoment and overhaul hemis+heric relations)





30

Impacts" (aundry ist

The pan is ,ey to sove cimate change/ proieration anddemocracy

IA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+ The #nited States and %atin America,* A+ril,htt+www)thedialogue)orgPublication5iles"A2.12PolicyEe+ort5"?A%)+df

Similarly, 7ashingtonQs more than half-century embargo on Cuba, as well 8 as other elements of #nited

StatesQ Cuba +olicy, is strongly o++osed by all 8 other countries in the hemis+here ) "ndeed,

the #S +osition on these troublesome issuesOimmigration, drug +olicy, and CubaOhas set 7ashington8 against the consensus view of the hemis+hereQs other 3/ governments ) 8 Theseissues stand as obstacles to further coo+eration in the Americas ) The 8 #nited States and thenations of %atin America and the Caribbean need to 8 resolve them in order to build more +roductive +artnershi+s )8 There are com+elling reasons for the #nited States and %atin America to 8 +ursue more robust ties )8 (very countryin the Americas would bene=t from strengthened and 8 e9+anded economic relations, with im+roved access to each

otherQs mar:ets, investment ca+ital, and energy resources ) (ven with its current economic +roblems, the #nitedStatesQ 14-trillion economy is a vital mar:et 8 and source of ca+ital Vincluding remittances< and technology for

%atin 8 America, and it could contribute more to the regionQs economic +erformance ) 5or its +art, %atinAmericaQs rising economies will inevitably become 8 more and more crucial to the#nited StatesQ economic future )8 The #nited States and many nations of %atinAmerica and the Caribbean 8 would also gain a great deal by more coo+eration onsuch global matters 8 as climate change, nuclear non-+roliferation, and democracyand human 8 rights ) 7ith a ra+idly e9+anding #S !is+anic +o+ulation of more than 0. 8 million, the culturaland demogra+hic integration of the #nited States and 8 %atin America is +roceeding at an accelerating +ace, settinga =rmer basis 8 for hemis+heric +artnershi+ es+ite the multi+le o++ortunities and +otential bene=ts, relations

between 8 the #nited States and %atin America remain disa++ointing ) "f new o++ortunities are notseiBed, relations will li:ely continue to drift a+art ) The longer the 8 current situation+ersists, the harder it will be to reverse course and rebuild 8 vigorous coo+eration )

!emis+heric aairs re;uire urgent attentionOboth 8 from the #nited States and from %atin America and theCaribbean)





34

Impacts" 8roieration

&eations are ,ey to sove proierationIA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+


6any of the issues on the hemis+heric agenda carry critical global 8 dimensions ) ecause

of this, the #nited States should see: greater 8 coo+eration and consultation with raBil,

6e9ico, and other countries of 8 the region in world forums addressing shared interests )8 raBil has thebroadest international +resence and inuence of any %atin 8 American nation ) "n recent years it has become farmore active on global 8 issues of concern to the #nited States ) The #nited States and raBil have 8 clashed oversuch issues as "ranQs nuclear +rogram, non-+roliferation, and 8 the 6iddle (ast u+risings, but they have coo+eratedwhen their interests 8 converged, such as in the 7orld Trade GrganiBation and the L-2. V6e9ico, 8 Argentina, and

Canada also +artici+ate in the L-2.<, and in eorts to 8 rebuild and +rovide security for !aiti ) 7ashington haswor:ed with raBil 8 and other %atin American countries to raise the +ro=le of emergingeconomies in various international =nancial agencies , including the 7orld an: 8 and the

"nternational 6onetary 5und )8 "n addition to economic and =nancial matters, raBil and other %atin 8 Americannations are assuming enhanced roles on an array of global +olitical, environmental,and security issues ) Several for which #S and %atin 8 American coo+eration couldbecome increasingly im+ortant include 8 As the worldQs lone nuclear-wea+ons-free region, %atin America has the 8 o++ortunity to +artici+ate more actively in non-+roliferation eorts )8 Although #S and %atin American interests do not always converge 8 on non-

+roliferation ;uestions, they align on some related goals ) 5or 8 e9am+le, the main +roliferationchallenges today are found in develo+ing and unstable +arts of the world, as well asin the lea:ageOor transfer 8 of nuclear materialsOto terrorists ) "n that conte9t, south-south connections are crucial ) raBil could +lay a +ivotal role)





3J

Impacts" Cimate change

&eations sove cimate changeIA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+


6any countries in the region give +riority to climate change challenges ) 8 This may+osition them as a voice in international debates on this to+ic ) 8 The im+ortance ofthe AmaBon basin to worldwide climate concerns 8 gives raBil and =ve other SouthAmerican nations a s+ecial role to +lay )8 6e9ico already has assumed a +rominent +osition onclimate change and 8 is active in global +olicy debates ) raBil organiBed the =rst-ever global 8 environmentalmeeting in 12 and, this year, will host EioN2. ) 6e9ico 8 hosted the second international meeting on climate

change in Cancn in 8 2.1. ) The #nited States is handica++ed by its inability to devise aclimate 8 change +olicy ) Still, it should su++ort coordination on the +resum+tion 8 ofshared interests on a critical +olicy challenge)





3K

(eadership



3

8an soves sot po$er

The embargo destroys US goba sot po$er&umbaut *11 [Eubn L) Eumbaut, Professor of Sociology at the School of SocialSciences at #C "rvine, &The embargo undermines the image of the #nited Statesthroughout the world,* htt+cubacentral)word+ress)com2.111.21the-un-the-us-embargo-and-the-2.-year-rout-1.-reasons-to-o++ose-the-embargo

& The #)S) trade and travel embargo against Cuba is the longest in history, and the most senselessand irredeemable) "t is the act of a bully, based on +i;ue) "t is an abysmal moral and +olitical failure,

diminishing not Cuba but the #)S) in world o+inion and res+ect) "t has achieved theo++osite of what it has sought, hurting both the Cuban +eo+le as well as #)S)interests) The embargo is o++osed by virtually the entire world as well as largedomestic maIorities, even Cuban e9iles and dissidents\ yet, the #)S) government+ersists with its +etty +unitive +olicy, not out of reasoned +rinci+le but for internal +olitical +osturing)

The s+ectacle of the worldQs largest economy and sole su+er+ower, see:ing in vainfor half a century to strangle a baseball-loving small develo+ing nation that dared todefy it, is a modern avid and Loliath story O and no one loves Loliath )*

The embargo has destroyed US credibiityAdams %11 [Hohn Adams, retired rigadier Leneral #S Army, &The embargo hurts#)S) national security interests,* htt+cubacentral)word+ress)com2.111.21the-un-the-us-embargo-and-the-2.-year-rout-1.-reasons-to-o++ose-the-embargo

& The #)S) embargo against Cuba is a Cold 7ar relic that hurts America and Cuba by+reventing normal trade and travel between our two countries) 5rom the +ers+ective of #)S) nationalsecurity, not only does the embargo +revent our coo+eration with Cuba on common security issues such as crime

and terrorism, it hurts #)S) standing throughout the world by highlighting our aggression

against a neighboring country that +oses no threat) The #nited States demeansitself by this futile and hy+ocritical +olicy) "t is long +ast time to re+eal the #)S)embargo against Cuba)*

(iting the embargo is ,ey to US eadership8iccone %+. [Ted Piccone is a senior fellow and de+uty director for 5oreign Policy atroo:ings) Piccone s+ecialiBes in #)S)-%atin American relations\ global democracyand human rights\ and multilateral aairs) Piccone serves as an advisor to the Clubof 6adrid and has served on the ?ational Security Council, at the State e+artmentand Pentagon, &The #nited ?ations enounces the #)S) (mbargo on Cuba Again,*Gct) 2J, htt+www)broo:ings)edublogsu+-front+osts2..1.2J-cuba-un-vote-

+iccone

5or the 1Kth year in a row, the #nited ?ations Leneral Assembly une;uivocally callsfor the end of Fthe economic, commercial and =nancial embargo im+osed by the #nitedStates of America against Cuba)F And once again, the #nited States =nds itself com+letelyisolated from even its closest friends in the international community )8 "t wasnQt su++osedto be this way) President Gbama is committed to a new course of multilateral engagement in which the #nitedStates reassumes its mantle of res+onsible global citiBen) And in many ways, from the formal creation of the L-2. tore-Ioining the #? !uman Eights Council, the administration has not Iust tal:ed the tal:, but wal:ed the wal:,

http://cubacentral.wordpress.com/2011/10/21/the-un-the-us-embargo-and-the-20-year-rout-10-reasons-to-oppose-the-embargo/




http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/up-front/posts/2009/10/27-cuba-un-vote-piccone










/.

earning him a rather +remature though welcomed ?obel Peace PriBe) 8 ut when it comes to Cuba, itQs bac: to thesame old story all +olitics is local, in this case, 6iami, 5lorida) (arlier this year, there was some Iusti=ed ho+e that,after eight years of an increasingly onerous set of laws and regulations restricting trade, travel and remittancesbetween the #nited States and Cuba, President Gbama would ful=ll his +romise to try a new +ath of +ragmatic but+rinci+led engagement) And winning 5lorida last ?ovember U des+ite losing the maIority of Cuban American votes in6iami U should have given the 7hite !ouse some elbow room to ta:e some bold actions) ut even su++orters aredisa++ointed by the e9cessively cautious ste+s this administration has ta:en so far to e9tend that Funclenched =stFto our closest island neighbor) 8 "f anything, the +resident seems to have limited his o+tions by loc:ing himself in to

a +olicy of mutual reci+rocity that lets !avana determine the +ace of +rogress in unfreeBing 0. years of icyrelations) Gn more than one occasion, the +resident has reiterated his view that, in return for letting Cuban-American families travel and send remittances to their loved ones on the island, the Castro regime must ta:e thene9t ste+ toward better relations) !e re+ortedly as:ed his S+anish counter+art, Prime 6inister Hose %uis ^a+atero, totell President Eaul Castro to get moving on democratic reforms) According to an unnamed #)S) oXcial ;uoted in (lPais, Gbama said, F7e're ta:ing ste+s, but if they don't ta:e ste+s too, it's going to be very hard for us to continue)FGf course, the fact that =nancial donations from +ro-embargo Cuban Americans to the emocratic SenateCam+aign Committee, which ha++ens to be led by +ro-embargo Cuban-American Senator Eobert 6enendeB V-?H<,have Ium+ed si9-fold since 2..4 also may have something to do with this a++roach) "t at least seems to reaXrmanother old clich money tal:s)8 7hile a tit-for-tat a++roach may assuage the shrin:ing number of hard-liners in6iami, it is unli:ely to have any eect on the intended audience U the Cuban regime, now ruled by 5idel CastroQsFyoungerF brother VJK years old< and a cohort of aged revolutionaries) Cuba has made it very clear that it is+re+ared to sit down and tal: with the #nited States in a s+irit of mutual res+ect, i)e), acce+ting the regime as it is,rather than as we would li:e it to be) #ntil then, it will ha++ily +romote the image of avid vs) Loliath on the worldstage) "t is Iust too +otent and too successful a narrative in winning friends for !avana to abandon, even more sonow that its economy is in a shambles and it needs all the friends it can get) 8 Similarly, the modest ste+s the

administration has ta:en so far is unli:ely to get much mileage with the other grou+ one would want to inuence Uthe (uro+ean and other allies who are rooting for a more multilateral, coo+erative and +ragmatic #)S) +olicy on this

and a host of other issues) 7ashington will have to do much more to begin turning the tideof international +ublic o+inion against the embargo ) This does not mean that the #nited States

should abandon its defense of human rights for all Cubans) ut it might want to change its tactics)S+ain is touting its +olicy of ;uiet di+lomacy as a better model for the (uro+ean #nion, which it chairs in 2.1., andhas a few, albeit meager concessions by !avana to bac: u+ its argument) 7e, after 0. years of attem+ting to+unish Cuba for its bad behavior, have none)8 So a +olicy designed to isolate a small, +oor Caribbean island has

come around full circle to isolate the su+er+ower instead) The lo+sided #? vote reminds us yetagain that itQs time for a change) "f President Gbama wants to show the world he is+re+ared to lead in a new direction, there are a multitude of ste+s he can ta:e toease the embargo and im+rove bilateral relations without waiting for Congress to act) These includee9+anding licenses for +eo+le-to-+eo+le travel for educational, cultural and humanitarian +ur+oses\ allowing moreCubans to travel to the #nited States\ easing the licensing of tradable medicines develo+ed in Cuba\ reviewing

whether Cuba should remain on the list of state s+onsors of terrorism\ and +ursuing agreements on disaster reliefand marine conservation) ut something tells me that at ne9t yearQs #? vote, very little will have changed, in!avana or in 7ashington)

The embargo destroys US in=uenceQuiRones !"17-13 [rendan uijones, 6)A) in i+lomacy and "nternationalEelations from Seton !all #niversity with a concentration in %atin America Y theCaribbean, &A ?ew Tac: for Cuba,* htt+saveIersey)com2.13./a-new-tac-for-cuba

7hile American +olicyma:ers +er+etuate the status-;uo, third-+arty states are rea+ing the serious economic

bene=ts associated with bilateral trade with Cuba) Though many of these states are our allies, manyOsuch as

$eneBuelaOare undeniably situated in the anti-American cam+, and as such, hel+ to +er+etuate anti-Americanism in %atin America and abroad, using the trade embargo to bolster theirclaims) Combating the belligerency of third-+arty statesOand li:ewiseO+romoting democracy in Cuba, will be

diXcult endeavors indeed) es+ite this, the #nited States should boldly move forward on maIordi+lomatic reforms with Cuba, ultimately with the goal of e9+osing the island to American values, and

American economic lifeblood) Should such a +olicy be ado+ted, a more egalitarian, democratic futuremight be realiBed by all +arties involvedOas demonstrated, the status-;uo will only serveto dee+en authoritarian strains)

http://savejersey.com/2013/04/a-new-tac-for-cuba/






/1

Impacts" 2ar

Sot po$er soves goba $arareFye %. [Hoe, ean of !arvardQs @ennedy School of Lovernment, 7ashingtonuarterly, FConicts after the Cold 7ar,* 1)1

As a result of such disIunctions between borders and +eo+les, there have been some -+communa con=icts since the end o the Cod 2ar/ many o them stiongoing3 Communa con=icts, +articularly those involving wars of secession, are verydifcut to manage through the UF and other institutions built to address interstate conicts) The#?, regional organiBations, alliances, and individual states cannot +rovide a universal answer to the dilemma ofself-determination versus the inviolability of established borders, +articularly when so many states face +otentialcommunal conicts of their own) "n a world of identity crises on many levels of analysis, it is not clear which selves

deserve sovereignty nationalities, ethnic grou+s, linguistic grou+s, or religious grou+s) Similarly, uses oorce or deterrence/ compeence/ and reassurance are much harder tocarry out $hen both those using orce and those on the receiving end aredisparate coaitions o internationa organiJations / states/ and sub

nationa groups3 6oreover, although few communal conicts by themselves threaten security beyond theirregions, some impose ris,s o PhoriJontaP escaation/ or the spread to otherstates $ithin their respective regions3 This can ha++en through the involvement of aXliatedethnic grou+s that s+read across borders, the sudden ood of refugees into neighboring states, or the use of

neighboring territories to shi+ wea+ons to combatants) The use o ethnic propaganda asoraises the ris, o PverticaP escaation to more intense vioence/ moresophisticated and destructive $eapons/ and harsher attac:s on civilian +o+ulations as well asmilitary +ersonnel) There is also the danger that communal conicts could become more numerous if the #? andregional security organiBations lose the credibility, willingness, and ca+abilities necessary to deal with such

conicts) Preventing and Addressing Conicts The Pivotal #)S) Eole (eadership by the United States,

as the world's leading economy, its most +owerful military force,, and a eading democracy/ is a

,ey actor in imiting the re<uency and destructiveness o great po$er/

regiona/ and communa con=icts 3 The +arado9 of the +ost-cold war role of the #nited States is

that it is the most +owerful state in terms of both FhardF +ower resources Vits economy and military forces< andFsoftF ones Vthe a++eal of its +olitical system and culture<, yet it is not so +owerful that it can achieve all itsinternational goals by acting alone) The #nited States lac:s both the international and domestic +rere;uisites toresolve every conict, and in each case its role must be +ro+ortionate to its interests at sta:e and the costs of

+ursuing them) Det the United States can continue to enabe and mobiiJeinternationa coaitions to pursue shared security interests / whether or not the#nited States itself su++lies large military forces) The #)S) role will thus not be that of a lone global +oliceman\

rather, the United States can re<uenty serve as the sheri? o the posse/ eadingshiting coaitions o riends and aies to address shared securityconcerns $ithin the egitimiJing rame$or, o internationa organiJations3 This re;uires sustained attention to the infrastructure and institutional mechanisms that ma:e #)S) leadershi+eective and Ioint action +ossible forward stationing and +reventive de+loyments of #)S) and allied forces,+re+ositioning of #)S) and allied e;ui+ment, advance +lanning and Ioint training to ensure intero+erability withallied forces, and steady im+rovement in the conict resolution abilities of an interloc:ing set of bilateral alliances,

regional security organiBations and alliances, and global institutions)



/2

Impacts" Hege

Hege soves goba $ar hang and Shi *11 U kDuhan ^hang is a researcher at the Carnegie (ndowment for

"nternational Peace, 7ashington, )C)\ %in Shi is from Columbia #niversity) She alsoserves as an inde+endent consultant for the (urasia Lrou+ and a consultant for the7orld an: in 7ashington, )C) VAmericaQs decline A harbinger of conict andrivalry, htt+www)eastasiaforum)org2.11.122americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conict-and-rivalry<

This does not necessarily mean that the #S is in systemic decline, but it encom+asses a trend that a++ears to benegative and +erha+s alarming) Although the #S still +ossesses incom+arable military +rowess and its economyremains the worldQs largest, the once seemingly indomitable chasm that se+arated America from anyone else is

narrowing) Thus, the global distribution of +ower is shifting , and the inevitable result willbe a world that is less +eaceful , liberal and +ros+erous, burdened by a dearth of eectiveconict regulation ) Gver the +ast two decades, no other state has had the ability to seriously challenge the

#S military) #nder these circumstances, motivated by both o++ortunity and fear, many actors have

bandwagoned with #S hegemony and acce+ted a subordinate role) Canada, most of 7estern (uro+e,"ndia, Ha+an, South @orea, Australia, Singa+ore and the Phili++ines have all Ioined the #S, creating a status ;uo thathas tended to mute great +ower conicts) !owever, as the hegemony that drew these +owers together withers, sowill the +ulling +ower behind the #S alliance) The result will be an international order where +ower is more diuse,American interests and inuence can be more readily challenged, and conicts or wars may be harder to avoid) As

history attests, +ower decline and redistribution result in military confrontation ) 5ore9am+le, in the late 1th century AmericaQs emergence as a regional +ower saw it launch its =rst overseas war ofcon;uest towards S+ain) y the turn of the 2.th century, accom+anying the increase in #S +ower and waning ofritish +ower, the American ?avy had begun to challenge the notion that ritain Rrules the waves)Q Such a notionwould eventually see the #S attain the status of sole guardians of the 7estern !emis+hereQs security to become theorder-creating %eviathan sha+ing the international system with democracy and rule of law) e=ning this #S-centredsystem are three :ey characteristics enforcement of +ro+erty rights, constraints on the actions of +owerful

individuals and grou+s and some degree of e;ual o++ortunities for broad segments of society) As a result of such +olitical stability, free mar:ets, liberal trade and e9ible =nancial mechanisms havea++eared) And, with this, many countries have sought o++ortunities to enter this system, +roliferating stable

and coo+erative relations) !owever, what will ha++en to these advances as AmericaQs inuence declines> Liventhat AmericaQs authority, although sullied at times, has bene=ted +eo+le across much of %atin

America, Central and (astern (uro+e, the al:ans, as well as +arts of Africa and, ;uitee9tensively, Asia , the answer to this ;uestion could aect global society in a +rofoundly detrimental way)

Public imagination and academia have antici+ated that a +ost-hegemonic world would return to the

+roblems of the 13.s regional blocs, trade conicts and strategic rivalry) 5urthermore,

multilateral institutions such as the "65, the 7orld an: or the 7TG might give way to regionalorganisations) 5or e9am+le, (uro+e and (ast Asia would each ste+ forward to =ll the vacuum left by7ashingtonQs withering leadershi+ to +ursue their own visions of regional +olitical and economic orders) 5reemar:ets would become more +oliticised O and, well, less free O and maIor +owers would com+ete for su+remacy)Additionally, such +ower +lays have historically +ossessed a Bero-sum element) "n the late 14.s and 1J.s, #Seconomic +ower declined relative to the rise of the Ha+anese and 7estern (uro+ean economies, with the #S dollaralso becoming less attractive) And, as American +ower eroded, so did international regimes Vsuch as the retton

7oods System in 1J3<) A world without American hegemony is one where great +owerwars re-emerge, the liberal international system is su++lanted by an authoritarian one, and trade+rotectionism devolves into restrictive, anti-globalisation barriers) This, at least, is one +ossibility we can forecast ina future that will inevitably be devoid of unrivalled #S +rimacy)

http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2011/01/22/americas-decline-a-harbinger-of-conflict-and-rivalry/






/3

Impacts" (aundry ist

Sot po$er is ,ey to sove disease/ econ gro$th/ terrorism/ anddrug trafc,ingFye %+- [Hose+h, 5ormer Assistant Secretary Gf efense &#)S) Power and Strategyafter "ra;*, HulAug 2..3, Pro;uest

The +roblem for #)S) +ower in the twenty-=rst century is that more and more continues to fall outside the control of

even the most +owerful state) -lthou*h the nted States does well on the tradtonal measures o

hard power , these measures al to capture the on*on* transormaton o world poltcs 'rou*ht

a'out 'y *lo'alFaton and the democratFaton o technolo*y) The +arado9 of American +ower is that

world poltcs s chan*n* n a way that maes t mposs'le or the stron*est world power snceome to ache!e some o ts most crucal nternatonal *oals alone. he nted States lacs 'oth

the nternatonal and the domestc capacty to resol!e conlcts that are nternal to other socetes

and to montor and control transnatonal de!elopments that threaten -mercans at home. 4n

many o today7s ey ssues, such as nternatonal nancal sta'lty, dru* tracn*, the spreado dseases, and especally the new terrorsm, mltary power alone smply cannot produce

success, and ts use can sometmes 'e counterproduct!e. Gnstead, as the most powerul country,the nted States must mo'lFe nternatonal coaltons to address these shared threats and

challen*es. By de!alun* sot power and nsttutons , the new unlateralst coalton o

Jacsonans and neo5lsonans s depr!n* ashn*ton o some o ts most mportantnstruments or the mplementaton o the new natonal securty strate*y) "f they manage to continuewith this tac:, the #nited States could fail what !enry @issinger called the historical test for this generation ofAmerican leaders to use current +re+onderant #)S) +ower to achieve an international consensus behind widelyacce+ted norms that will +rotect American values in a more uncertain future) 5ortunately, this outcome is not+reordained)

Ony sot po$er ao$s us to conront probems reated togoba terrorism/ 2)4 proieration/ cimate change anddiseaseFye %+! [Hose+h, &#S 6ilitary Primacy is 5act - so, ?ow, 7or: on 'Soft Power' ofPersuasion*, /-2-2../, Loogle

!ard +ower can rest on tangible inducements Vcarrots<, or threats Vstic:s<, to get others to change their +osition)ut sometimes governments can get the outcomes they want without threats or +ayos) The indirect way to adesirable outcome has been called the second face of +ower) A country may obtain outcomes it wants in world+olitics because other countries want to follow it, admiring its values, emulating its e9am+le, as+iring to its level of+ros+erity and o+enness) "n this sense, it is also im+ortant to set the agenda and attract others in world +olitics)

Sot power co5opts people rather than coerces them. Gt rests on the a'lty to set the a*enda or

shape the preerences o others) "t is a mista:e to discount soft +ower as Iust a ;uestion of image, +ublic

relations, and e+hemeral +o+ularity) "t is a form of +ower - a means of +ursuing national interests) hen -mercadscounts the mportance o ts attract!eness to other countres, t pays a prce ) 7hen #S +olicies

lose their legitimacy and credibility in the eyes of others , atttudes o dstrust tend to ester and urther

reduce ts le!era*e . The manner with which the #S went into "ra; undercut American soft +ower) That did not+revent the success of the four-wee: military cam+aign, but it made others less willing to hel+ in the reconstructionof "ra; and made the American occu+ation more costly in the hard-+ower resources of blood and treasure) ecauseof its leading edge in the information revolution and its +ast investment in military +ower, the #S +robably will

remain the world's single most +owerful country well into the 21st century) ut not all the mportant types o



//

power come rom the 'arrel o a *un) Hard power s rele!ant to *ettn* desred outcomes, 'ut

transnatonal ssues such as clmate chan*e, nectous dseases, nternatonal crme, and

terrorsm cannot 'e resol!ed 'y mltary orce alone) Soft +ower is +articularly im+ortant in dealing withthese issues, where military +ower alone sim+ly cannot +roduce success, and can even be counter+roductive)

-merca7s success n copn* wth the new transnatonal threats o terrorsm and weapons o massdestructon wll depend on a deeper understandn* o the role o sot power and develo+ing a better

balance of hard and soft +ower in foreign +olicy)



/0

4emocracy



/4

1AC )odue

The pan is vita to Cuban democracy" threatens the entireregion

IA4 %1' ["nter-American ialogue, research organiBation with maIority of oard ofirectors from %atin American and Caribbean nations, &Eema:ing the Eelationshi+ The #nited States and %atin America,* A+ril,htt+www)thedialogue)orgPublication5iles"A2.12PolicyEe+ort5"?A%)+df

Cuba, too, +oses a signi=cant challenge for relations between the #nited 8 States and %atin America ) The 0.-year-

old #S embargo against Cuba is 8 rightly criticiBed throughout the hemis+here as afailed and +unitive instrument ) "t has long been a strain on #S-%atin Americanrelations ) Although 8 the #nited States has recently moved in the right direction and ta:en ste+s 8 to rela9restrictions on travel to Cuba, 7ashington needs to do far more 8 to dismantle its severe, outdated constraints on

normaliBed relations with 8 Cuba ) Cuba is one of the residual issues that most obstructs moreeective 8 #S-%atin American engagement )8 At the same time, CubaQs authoritarianregime should be of utmost concern 8 to all countries in the Americas ) At +resent, it isthe only country without 8 free, multi-+arty elections, and its government fully controls the

+ress )8 %atin American and Caribbean nations could be instrumental in su++orting 8

CubaQs eventual transition to democratic rule ) An end to the #S +olicy of 8 isolatingCuba , without setting aside #S concern about human rights violations, would be anim+ortant =rst ste+ )

(atin American democracy prevents con=ict escaation" hasgoba e?ectsUF48 %1- [#nited ?ations evelo+ment Programme, &#?(ESTA?"?L SGC"A%CG?5%"CT "? %AT"? A6(E"CA,* htt+www)und+)orgcontentdamund+librarycrisis

M2.+revention#nderstandingM2.SocialM2.ConictM2.inM2.%atinM2.AmericaM2.2.13M2.(?L)+df

Social conicts aecting %atin America between 2.. and 2.1. arose within a historical conte9t inuenced by the

regionQs relative success in resisting the global economic crisis) uring 8 this +eriod, %atin Americasustained signi=cant rates of economic growth, reduced its +overty 8 rates, and maintained a mostly

o+timistic and +ositive +ublic o+inion of democracy as a +olitical system) es+ite this +rogress and the

diversity of national conte9ts, there are +roblems, 8 trends, and choices encountered throughout the regionwhich +rovide a common +latform 8 for social conict)8 %atin American societies are generally characteriBed by ane9cessively concentrated +ower, 8 mar:ets that are uncom+etitive in the global economy, relatively wea: stateinstitutions of 8 ;uestionable legitimacy, limited citiBen +artici+ation, and inade;uate institutional recognition 8 of

cultural identities) "n order to solve the +roblems between states and societiesOes+ecially 8 in

terms of re+resentation, +artici+ation, and mediationOit is necessary to reIect all forms of 8

authoritarianism) Accordingly, States and societies should advocate a :ind of +olitical coe9istence that doesnot deny the dierent ty+es of +ower, conict, or discre+ancies that e9ist in 8 a +lural society)8 "n recent years,

%atin America has e9+erienced a +olitical transformation that could strengthendemocracy, foster develo+ment, and im+rove its global standing over the long term ) This transformation is facilitated by +olitical changes which include the erosion of the legitimacy 8 of +olitical +artiesand the emergence or reemergence of variety of movements and regimes 8 VcharacteriBed here as +o+ularnationalism, +ragmatic reformism, and conservative modernism<) Considering that societies result from conict+rocesses, it is natural that social conict 8 is a central +art of this transformation) Social conict in the regionshould therefore not be 8 considered a negative +henomenon) "f it is managed through dialogue and negotiationOand 8 both structural and circumstantial issues are addressedOit can oer means and o++ortunities 8 for +ursuing

greater social e;uality)8 Political systems +lay an im+ortant role in conict management)


http://www.undp.org/content/dam/undp/library/crisis%20prevention/Understanding%20Social%20Conflict%20in%20Latin%20America%202013%20ENG.pdf









/J

Countries and societies res+ond dierently to similar demands de+ending on what :ind of institutions they have) The 8 stateQs historical role as a social actor is a central factor in the contem+orary dynamics of the 8 regionQs socialconicts) The state not only reects social and +olitical conicts, but it is a central element of the system ofeconomic interests and relationshi+s between +olitical actors 8 which de=ne the dynamics of conict)8 Lovernabilityis a re;uisite for develo+ment and functional democracy, and thus it can have 8 a +rofound eect on the evolutionof societies and states) "n large +art, governability is determined by the +olitical ca+acity of States and societies to

manage their conicts without 8 com+romising institutions and stability) Although structural issues

continue to be signi=cant8

sources of instability in the region, +articularly in terms ofsocioeconomic +roblems and institutional failures, the study summariBed here shows that social conict in %atinAmerica does 8 not +resent serious +roblems for governability)8 The characteristics and ca+acities of States andinstitutions, including their ca+acities to manage conicts, vary signi=cantly across the region) The %atin AmericanState has a central role in 8 negotiations and conicts, but +arado9ically it has limited ca+acities for managing andresolving them without threatening social cohesion and democracy) "n countries where the State 8 is wea: and lac:s

legitimacy, citiBen +artici+ation is re;uired to manage social conicts) Similarly, local institutions and

munici+alities are becoming legitimate and im+ortant actors in the 8 management of conicts)8 The analysis of social conicts in %atin America reveals that they are commonly managed in 8 +ara-institutionalconte9ts, and the relationshi+ between State and social grou+s often shifts 8 between formal and informal conte9ts)Actors in social conicts still resort to institutions and 8 norms to +ursue their interests, but such recourse is oftenaccom+anied by +ara-institutional 8 measures in which informal social networ:s and mechanisms hel+ to regulatesocial relations 8 between individuals and formal institutions) "t is +recisely within this +ara-institutional domain 8 that social actors mobiliBe)8 Social conict in %atin America can be divided into three broad categories thatre+resent the 8 dierent :inds of demands that are collectively +ursued social re+roduction, institutional, and 8 cultural conicts) Social re+roduction conicts stem from demands relating to labor and wage issues) "nstitutional

conicts most often address the ineXciencies or wea:nesses of norms 8 and institutions) Cultural conicts generallyinvolve demands related to ;uality of life issues, 8 the recognition of identities, third generation rights, and the

conce+t of cultural citiBenshi+) 8 Cultural conicts in +articular have signi=cant systemicconse;uences given the growing role 8 of culture in a newly globaliBed %atinAmerica)8 Countries with broad social ine;uality and governments with scarce legitimacy e9+erience 8 greater

numbers of conicts) Conversely, more socially-e;uitable countries with governments 8 that enIoygreater levels of legitimacy e9+erience fewer conicts) 6ore com+le9 relationshi+s 8 wereobserved between the ;uantity of conicts and other factors, such as conict radicaliBation, institutional legitimacy,and social ga+s) !owever, in general, conicts tend to escalate 8 and radicaliBe because institutional framewor:sare inca+able of oering solutions and s+aces 8 for negotiation)8 5inally there is a growing trend for traditional ands+ontaneous conicts and actors to s+read, 8 mobiliBe, and gain su++ort through information and communicationsnetwor:s) The region 8 is ta:ing +art in a new global system made u+ of real-time networ:s of information ow and8 e9change, aecting society and its dynamics) Technology and globaliBation are aecting the 8 evolution of socialconicts in the region by rede=ning +ublic s+ace, favoring individual ca+acity and +artici+ation, fosterings+ontaneity, and elevating the +ro=le of actors and issues)

(atin American instabiity causes goba $ar&ochin *.! [Hames 5rancis, Professor of Political Science at G:anagan #) College,Discovering the Americas: The Evolution of Canadian Foreign Policy Towards Latin

America, 13.-131

hle there were economc mot!atons or ;anadan polcy n ;entral -merca, securty consderatons were perhaps more mportant.

;anada possessed an nterest n promotn* sta'lty n the ace o a potental declne o .S. he*emony n the -mercas. erceptons odeclnn* .S. nluence n the re*on whch had some cred'lty n 1#%#51#8" due to the wldly neDuta'le d!sons o wealth

n some .S. clent states n Iatn -merca, n addton to poltcal represson, under5de!elopment, mountn* e@ternal de't, ant5-mercan

sentment produced 'y decades o su'u*aton to .S. strate*c and economc nterests, and so on were lned to the prospect o

e@plos!e e!ents occurrn* n the hemsphere. Hence, the ;entral -mercan m'ro*lo was !ewed as a use whch could *nte a

cataclysmc process throu*hout the re*on. -nalysts at the tme worred that n a worstcase scenaro, nsta'lty created 'y a

re*onal war , 'e*nnn* n ;entral -merca and spreadn* elsewhere n Iatn -merca, m*ht preoccupy

ashn*ton to the e@tent that the nted S tates would 'e una'le to perorm adeDuately ts mportant

he*emonc role n the nternatonal arena a concern e@pressed 'y the drector o research or ;anadas Standn* ;ommttee

eport on ;entral -merca. Gt was eared that such a predcament could *enerate ncreased *lo'al nsta'lty and

perhaps e!en a he*emonc war . hs s one o the mot!atons whch led ;anada to 'ecome n!ol!ed n eorts at re*onal conlct

resoluton, such as ;ontadora, as wll 'e dscussed n the ne@t chapter.



/K

4emocracy soves e0tinction4iamond .# [%arry iamond, !oover "nstitution, Stanford #niversity, ecember,PEG6GT"?L (6GCEACD "? T!( 1.S, 10, +)htt+www)carnegie)orgsub+ubsdeadlydiam`r+t)html

Fucear/ chemica and bioogica $eapons continue to proierate 3 The very

source of life on (arth/ the goba ecosystem/ appears increasingy endangered)

6ost of these new and unconventional threats to security are associated $ith or aggravated by

the $ea,ness or absence o democracy, $ith its provisions or egaity/accountabiity, +o+ular sovereignty and openness) The e9+erience of this century oers im+ortant

lessons) Countries that govern themseves in a truly democratic ashion do notgo to $ar $ith one another 3 They do not aggress against their neighbors to aggrandiBe themselves

or glorify their leaders) 4emocratic governments do not ethnicay PceanseP theiro$n popuations, and they are much ess i,ey to ace ethnic insurgency34emocracies do not s+onsor terrorism against one another) They do not buid $ea+ons of mass

destruction to use on or to threaten one another) emocratic countries form more reliable, o+en, and

enduring trading +artnershi+s) "n the long run they oer better and more stable climates for investment) They

are more environmentay responsibe because they must ans$er to theiro$n citiJens/ $ho organiJe to protest the destruction o theirenvironments)

http://www.carnegie.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt.html

http://www.carnegie.org//sub/pubs/deadly/diam_rpt.html



/

8an soves democracy

(iting the embargo is ,ey to Cuban democracyTisda !"7-13 [Simon Tisdall is assistant editor and foreign aairs columnist of theLuardian) !e was +reviously foreign editor of the Luardian and the Gbserver andserved as 7hite !ouse cores+ondent and #)S) editor in 7ashington )C), &Time for#)S) and Cuba to :iss and ma:e u+,*htt+www)cnn)com2.13./.Ko+iniono+inion-simon-tisdall-cuba

There are other reasons for believing the time is right for Gbama to end the Cuba stalemate ) The recent death of !ugo ChaveB, $eneBuela's inuential +resident, has robbed !avana of a strong su++orter, both+olitical and =nancial)8 ChaveB was not interested in a ra++rochement with the #)S), either by Cuba or $eneBuela)!is revolutionary beliefs did not allow for an accommodation with the American Fim+erialists)F !is successors maynot ta:e so militant a line, es+ecially given that $eneBuela continues to trade heavily with the #)S), a +rivilege notallowed Cuba)8 The so-called F+in: tideF that has brought several left-wing leaders to +ower in %atin America in the+ast decade is not e9actly on the ebb, but the hostility countries such as raBil, (cuador and olivia felt towards theush administration has abated) "n fact, according to Sweig's article, #)S) business with %atin America as a whole isbooming, u+ 2.M in 2.11) The #)S) im+orts more crude oil from $eneBuela and 6e9ico than from the Persian Lulf,including Saudi Arabia) The #)S) does three times more business with %atin America than with China) 8 The stand-o

over Cuba is an obstacle to advancing #)S) interests and business in %atin American countries, and vice versa) Thecontinuation of the embargo has left the #)S) almost totally isolated at the #nited ?ations, and at shar+ odds with

its maIor allies, including ritain and the (#)8 ut more im+ortantly, the continued ostracism of Cuba's+eo+le -- for they, not the !avana government, are the biggest losers -- is unfair, un:ind andunnecessary) "f the #)S) wants full democracy in Cuba, then it should o+en u+ fullyto ordinary Cubans) Tear down the arti=cial walls that se+arate the +eo+le of thetwo countries and, as 6ao ^edong once said, let a hundred owers bloom)

(iting the embargo bosters Cuban democracy(oyd %1+ [elia, senior +olicy manager at C 6edia Action, &Ten Eeasons to %iftthe Cuba (mbargo,* htt+www)+oliticsdaily)com2.1..K2/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-

cuba-embargo

4) "t's counter-+roductive) "solating Cuba has been more than ineective) "t's also +rovidedthe Castro brothers with a convenient +olitical sca+egoat for the country's ongoingeconomic +roblems, rather than drawing attention to their own mismanagement )

6oreover, in banning the shi+ment of information-technology +roducts, the #nitedStates has eectively assisted the Cuban government in shutting out informationfrom the outside world, yet another +otential catalyst for democratiBation)

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/08/opinion/opinion-simon-tisdall-cuba

http://www.cnn.com/2013/04/08/opinion/opinion-simon-tisdall-cuba



0.

Add"Ons



01

Terrorism

The pan rees up resources to sove terrorism(u,as %+1 [Aaron %u:as is an analyst at the Cato "nstituteQs Center for Trade PolicyStudies, &"tQs Time, 5inally, to (nd the Cuban (mbargo,* ecember 1/,htt+www)cato)org+ublicationscommentaryits-time-=nally-end-cuban-embargo

?ot only has the embargo bac:=red, it wastes American resources that are needed to=ght terrorism) Treasury oXcials who could be unraveling terrorist =nancialnetwor:s are instead tracing +ro+erty owned by S+anish hotels in Cuba to ma:e sure it

wasnQt stolen from Americans decades ago) "?S agents that could be watching our borders forsuicide bombers are instead worrying about tourists who may have s+ent money in!avana) These shouldnQt be our to+ +riorities) "n fact, they shouldnQt be +riorities at all)

Terrorism causes nucear $ar

Ayson *1+ [Eobert, Professor of Strategic Studies and irector of the Centre forStrategic Studies ?ew ^ealand at the $ictoria #niversity of 7ellington, &After a Terrorist ?uclear Attac: (nvisaging Catalytic (ects,* Huly, Studies in Conict Y Terrorism, $ol) 33, "ssue J, "nforma7orld

ut these two nuclear worldsOa non-state actor nuclear attac: and a catastro+hic interstate nuclear e9changeOare

not necessarily se+arable) "t is Iust +ossible that some sort o terrorist attac, , and especiay

an act of nucear terrorism/ coud precipitate a chain o events eading to amassive e0change o nucear $eapons bet$een t$o or more of the states that+ossess them) "n this conte9t, todayQs and tomorrowQs terrorist grou+s might assume the +lace allotted during the

early Cold 7ar years to new state +ossessors of small nuclear arsenals who were seen as raising the ris,s

o a cataytic nucear $ar bet$een the superpo$ers started by third

parties) These ris:s were considered in the late 10.s and early 14.s as concerns grew about nuclear+roliferation, the so-called nN1 +roblem) "t may re;uire a considerable amount of imagination to de+ict anes+ecially +lausible situation where an act of nuclear terrorism could lead to such a massive inter-state nuclear war)5or e9am+le, in the event of a terrorist nuclear attac: on the #nited States, it might well be wondered Iust howEussia andor China could +lausibly be brought into the +icture, not least because they seem unli:ely to be =ngeredas the most obvious state s+onsors or encouragers of terrorist grou+s) They would seem far too res+onsible to beinvolved in su++orting that sort of terrorist behavior that could Iust as easily threaten them as well) Some+ossibilities, however remote, do suggest themselves) 5or e9am+le, how might the #nited States react if it wasthought or discovered that the =ssile material used in the act of nuclear terrorism had come from Eussian stoc:s,/.and if for some reason 6oscow denied any res+onsibility for nuclear la9ity> The correct attribution of that nuclearmaterial to a +articular country might not be a case of science =ction given the observation by 6ichael 6ay et al)that while the debris resulting from a nuclear e9+losion would be &s+read over a wide area in tiny fragments, itsradioactivity ma:es it detectable, identi=able and collectable, and a wealth of information can be obtained from itsanalysis the eXciency of the e9+losion, the materials used and, most im+ortant some indication of where thenuclear material came from)*/1 Alternatively, if the act of nuclear terrorism came as a com+lete sur+rise, andAmerican oXcials refused to believe that a terrorist grou+ was fully res+onsible Vor res+onsible at all< sus+icionwould shift immediately to state +ossessors) Euling out 7estern ally countries li:e the #nited @ingdom and 5rance,

and +robably "srael and "ndia as well, authorities in 7ashington would be left with a very short list consisting of?orth @orea, +erha+s "ran if its +rogram continues, and +ossibly Pa:istan) ut at $hat stage $oud&ussia and China be de=nitely rued out in this high sta:es game of nuclear Cluedo> "n +articular/i the act of nuclear terrorism occurred against a bac,drop o e0isting tension in

7ashingtonQs relations $ith &ussia and or China, and at a time when threats had already been traded

between these maIor +owers, $oud ofcias and poitica eaders not be tempted to

assume the $orst > Gf course, the chances of this occurring would only seem to increase if the #nited

States was already involved in some sort of limited armed conict with Eussia andor China, or if they wereconfronting each other from a distance in a +ro9y war, as unli:ely as these develo+ments may seem at the +resent

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/its-time-finally-end-cuban-embargo

http://www.cato.org/publications/commentary/its-time-finally-end-cuban-embargo



02

time) The reverse might well a++ly too should a nuclear terrorist attac: occur in Eussia or China during a +eriod ofheightened tension or even limited conict with the #nited States, could 6oscow and eiIing resist the +ressuresthat might rise domestically to consider the #nited States as a +ossible +er+etrator or encourager of the attac:>

2ashington%s eary response to a terrorist nuclear attac: on its own soil might also raise thepossibiity o an un$anted Vand nuclear aided< conrontation with Eussia andor China) 5or

e9am+le, in the noise and confusion during the immediate aftermath of the terrorist nuclear attac:, the U3S3president might be e0pected to pace the country%s armed forces, including its

nucear arsena/ on a higher stage o aert) "n such a tense environment, when careful

+lanning runs u+ against the friction of reality, it is Iust possibe that )osco$ and or Chinamight mista,eny read this as a sign o U3S3 intentions to use orce Vand

+ossibly nuclear force< against them) "n that situation, the temptations to preempt such actions might

gro$, although it must be admitted that any +reem+tion would +robably still meet with a devastating res+onse)As +art of its initial res+onse to the act of nuclear terrorism Vas discussed earlier< 7ashington might decide to ordera signi=cant conventional Vor nuclear< retaliatory or disarming attac: against the leadershi+ of the terrorist grou+andor states seen to su++ort that grou+) e+ending on the identity and es+ecially the location of thesetargets, Eussia andor China might inter+ret such action as being far too close for their comfort, and +otentially asan infringement on their s+heres of inuence and even on their sovereignty) Gne far-fetched but +erha+s notim+ossible scenario might stem from a Iudgment in 7ashington that some of the main aiders and abetters of theterrorist action resided somewhere such as Chechnya, +erha+s in connection with what Allison claims is the&Chechen insurgentsQ long-standing interest in all things nuclear)*/2 American +ressure on that +art of the worldwould almost certainly raise alarms in 6oscow that might re;uire a degree of advanced consultation from

7ashington that the latter found itself unable or unwilling to +rovide) There is also the ;uestion of how othernuclear-armed states res+ond to the act of nuclear terrorism on another member of that s+ecial club) "t couldreasonably be e9+ected that following a nuclear terrorist attac: on the #nited States, bothEussia and China woulde9tend immediate sym+athy and su++ort to 7ashington and would wor: alongside the #nited States in the SecurityCouncil) ut there is Iust a chance, albeit a slim one, where the su++ort of Eussia andor China is less automatic insome cases than in others) 5or e9am+le, what would ha++en if the #nited States wished to discuss its right toretaliate against grou+s based in their territory> "f, for some reason, 7ashington found the res+onses of Eussia andChina dee+ly underwhelming, Vneither &for us or against us*< might it also sus+ect that they secretly were incahoots with the grou+, increasing Vagain +erha+s ever so slightly< the chances of a maIor e9change) "f the terroristgrou+ had some connections to grou+s in Eussia and China, or e9isted in areas of the world over which Eussia andChina held sway, and if 7ashington felt that 6oscow or eiIing were +lacing a curiously modest level of +ressure onthem, what conclusions might it then draw about their cul+ability



0/

clots) And it's not Iust this one s+ecies of worm "ts wriggly relatives have evolved other biomedically valuable+roteins, including antistatin Va +otential anticancer agent<, decorsin and ornatin V+latelet aggregation inhibitors<,and hirudin Vanother anticoagulant<) Plants, too, are +harmaceutical gold mines) The bar: of trees, for e9am+le, hasgiven us ;uinine Vthe =rst cure for malaria<, ta9ol Va drug highly eective against ovarian and breast cancer<, andas+irin) 6ore than a ;uarter of the medicines on our +harmacy shelves were originally derived from +lants) The sa+of the 6adagascar +eriwin:le contains more than J. useful al:aloids, including vincristine, a +owerful anticancerdrug that saved the life of one of our friends) Gf the roughly 20.,... +lant s+ecies on (arth, fewer than 0 +ercenthave been screened for +harmaceutical +ro+erties) 7ho :nows what life-saving drugs remain to be discovered>

Liven current e9tinction rates, it's estimated that we're losing one valuable drug every two years) Gur arguments sofar have tacitly assumed that s+ecies are worth saving only in +ro+ortion to their economic value and their eectson our ;uality of life, an attitude that is strongly ingrained, es+ecially in Americans) That is why conservationistsalways base their case on an economic calculus) ut we biologists :now in our hearts that there are dee+er ande;ually com+elling reasons to worry about the loss of biodiversity namely, sim+le morality and intellectual valuesthat transcend +ecuniary interests) 7hat, for e9am+le, gives us the right to destroy other creatures> And whatcould be more thrilling than loo:ing around us, seeing that we are surrounded by our evolutionary cousins, andrealiBing that we all got here by the same sim+le +rocess of natural selection> To biologists, and +otentiallyeveryone else, a++rehending the genetic :inshi+ and common origin of all s+ecies is a s+iritual e9+erience - notnecessarily religious, but s+iritual nonetheless, for it stirs the soul) ut, whether or not one is moved by such

concerns, it is certain that our uture is bea, i $e do nothing to stem this si0the0tinction3 2e are creating a $ord in $hich e0otic diseases =ourish butnatura medicina cures are ost a $ord in $hich carbon $asteaccumuates $hie ood sources d$inde a $ord o s$etering heat/aiing crops/ and impure $ater) "n the end, $e must accept the possibiity that$e ourseves are not immune to e0tinction 3 Gr, if we survive, +erha+s only a few of us will

remain, scratching out a grubby e9istence on a devastated +lanet) 9oba $arming $i seem i,e asecondary probem $hen humanity nay aces the conse<uences o $hat$e have done to nature: not ;ust another 9reat 4ying/ but perhaps thegreatest dying o them a3



00

Aiances

The embargo $ea,ens US aiancesHanson et a 1"1-13 [aniel !anson is an economics researcher at the American(nter+rise "nstitute) ayne atten is aXliated with the #niversity of ?orth Carolinae+artment of Public Policy) !arrison (aley is a =nancial analyst, &"t's Time 5or The#)S) To (nd "ts Senseless (mbargo Gf Cuba,*htt+www)forbes)comsitesreals+in2.13.114its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba

At +resent, the #)S) is largely alone in restricting access to Cuba) The embargo haslong been a +oint of friction between the # nited S tates and allies in (uro+e, SouthAmerica, and Canada) (very year since 12, the #)S) has been +ublicallycondemned in the #nited ?ations for maintaining counter+roductive and worn outtrade and migration restrictions against Cuba des+ite the fact that nearly all 0,11 #)S) com+aniesnationaliBed during the Castro ta:eover have dro++ed their claims)

Aiances sove nucear $ars&oss %.7 [ouglas, +rofessor of +olitical science at Simon 5raser #niversity,CanadaQs functional isolationism and the future of wea+ons of mass destruction,"nternational Hournal, 7inter 1K1, le9is

Thus, an easily accessible ta9 base has long been available for s+ending much more on international security thanrecent governments have been willing to contem+late) ?egotiating the landmines ban, discouraging trade in smallarms, +romoting the #nited ?ations arms register are all worthwhile, +o+ular activities that +olish the national self-image) ut they should all be su++lements to, not substitutes for, a +ro+ortionately e;uitable commitment ofresources to the management and +revention of international conict U and thus the containment of the 76

threat) 5uture American governments will not R+olice the worldQ alone ) 5or almost =fty years theSoviet threat com+elled dis+ro+ortionate military e9+enditures and sacri=ce by the #nited States) That world is

gone) Gnly by enmeshing the ca+abilities of the #nited States and other leading +owersin a co-o+erative security management regime where the burdens are widelyshared does the world community have any +lausible ho+e of avoiding warfareinvolving nuclear or other 76)







04

Ine<uaity

The embargo causes economic ine<uaity(oyd %1+ [elia, senior +olicy manager at C 6edia Action, &Ten Eeasons to %iftthe Cuba (mbargo,* htt+www)+oliticsdaily)com2.1..K2/ten-reasons-to-lift-the-cuba-embargo

J) "t's inhumane) "f strategic arguments don't +ersuade you that it's time to end theembargo, then +erha+s humanitarian arguments will) 5or as anyone who's traveled to the island:nows, there's a decidedly enclave-li:e feel to those areas of the economy where ca+italism has been allowed to

ourish in a limited sense Ve)g) tourism< and the rest of the island, which feels very much li:e theremnant of an e9hausted socialist economic model) 7hen " went there in the 1.s with mysister, " remember the throngs of men who would cluster outside the tourist haunts) They'd ho+e to +ersuadevisitors li:e me to +retend to be their escort so they could snea: into the fancier hotels and nightclubs, which theycould not enter otherwise) !orse -- yes, horse -- was a common oering on menus bac: then) That situation hasa++arently eased in recent years as the government has o+ened u+ more sectors of the economy to ordinary

Cubans) ut the selective nature of that deregulation has only e9acerbated economicine;ualities) Again, one can argue that the +roblem here is one of +oor domestic +olicy choices, rather than the

embargo) ut it's not clear that ordinary Cubans +erceive that distinction) 6oreover, when you stand in theair+ort and watch tourists disembar: with buc:et-loads of basic medical su++lies,which they +rom+tly hand over to their Vnative< friends and family, it's hard not to feelthat #)S) +olicy is +er+etuating an inIustice)

2e must re;ect economic ine<uaity $here $e canEis %+- [Hustin, writer for The Chicago 6aroon, &5ear and dehumaniBation,* 1-2/-.3, htt+chicagomaroon)com2..3.12/fear-and-dehumaniBation

ecause " refuse to dehumaniBe an enemy, " cannot, in good conscience, describe myself as truly right, or trulywrong, or do the same for my enemy) America is not a +ristine beacon of democracy and goodness) ?either is it ades+icable im+erialistic monolith) To salvage some +oor semblance of sanity, we must admit our wrongs and =9

them, while simultaneously addressing the wrongs of the Arab world) To invade "ra; without an energy conservation

+lan, without a humane end to the "sraeli-Palestinian conict, and without an end to ca+ital +unishment andeconomic ine;uality, would be to +ut ourselves above re+roach) 7e would beaccessories to a foul and bloody crime ) " also cannot refuse my enemy human rights) !amdi shouldnot go free) ?either should Padilla, and most li:ely, neither should the ca+tives of Luantamano ay) They deservethe right to due +rocess) The classi=cation of enemies as combatants is a legal =ction) !amdi, if he too: u+ armsagainst his country, is a traitor) %et us +ut !amdi on trial for treason) Gnly then can his +unishment not be our guiltnor his im+risonment our shame) Gnly if the terrorists are given the same legal rights as all other human beings canwe even +retend that our side is moral)8 Gf course, the +artisans of al aeda do not care if we have the right to due+rocess) They only wish our deaths) !owever, if we deny a shared framewor: within which to govern our lives, wehave lost ourselves) 7hat worth is it to survive, if one lives under constant sus+icion and fear of oneQs owngovernment, where the courts are a farce and re+resentative democracy a moc:ery> The rights and +olitical system

of the #nited States must survive without encroachment)8 5inally, these rights must be, if +ossible,

e9tended to all +eo+les) The #nited States is not alone against the world) "t must ma:e itself into the

ca+stone of a new internationalism in which all countries would +artici+ate in the defense of liberty) The President,when he threatened the #nited ?ations with irrelevancy, in eect claimed that the rest of the worldQs citiBens wereinferior) This is absurd) Eemember, as was once claimed by a few s+urious rebels, that all +eo+le are created e;ual)Eemember that all those +eo+le deserve freedom, security, health, and economic o++ortunity) Eemember that wehave no other moral o+tion) "f anyone is to =ght for oneQs self-defense as a +eo+le, one must do it united with allciviliBation)8 The +osition that " have suggested lies at an uneasy meridian) ?o +osition is entirely right, es+eciallyone of ourselves) This nightmare will not +ass without much +ain, much death, and much suering) 5ear will remain

with us longer than we can now realiBe) ut we can, at least, and " believe that we must, stand in defenseof human life and human dignity) 7e have no other choice) "n such a total dar:ness, let us ho+e andwor: for a small, ic:ering light)

http://chicagomaroon.com/2003/01/24/fear-and-dehumanization/

http://chicagomaroon.com/2003/01/24/fear-and-dehumanization/



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4.

'AC Tradeo? 4A

Turn" the embargo drains tons o money and resourcesHanson et a 1"1-13 [aniel !anson is an economics researcher at the American(nter+rise "nstitute) ayne atten is aXliated with the #niversity of ?orth Carolinae+artment of Public Policy) !arrison (aley is a =nancial analyst, &"t's Time 5or The#)S) To (nd "ts Senseless (mbargo Gf Cuba,*htt+www)forbes)comsitesreals+in2.13.114its-time-for-the-u-s-to-end-its-senseless-embargo-of-cuba

Since 5idel Castro abdicated +ower to his brother Eaul in 2..K, the government has underta:en more than 3..economic reforms designed to encourage enter+rise, and restrictions have been lifted on +ro+erty use, travel,farming, munici+al governance, electronics access, and more) Cuba is still a +lace of o++ression and gross humanrights abuse, but recent events would indicate the 11 million +erson nation is moving in the right direction) 8 es+ite

this +rogress, the #)S) s+ends massive amounts of money trying to :ee+ illicit Cubangoods out of the #nited States) At least 1. dierent agencies are res+onsible forenforcing dierent +rovisions of the embargo , and according to the Lovernment Accountability

GXce, the #)S) government devotes hundreds of millions of dollars and tens ofthousands of man hours to administering the embargo each year )





cuba embargo affirmative - samford 2013

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