cuba embargo affirmative - ddi 2013 ss

8/10/2019 Cuba Embargo Affirmative - DDI 2013 SS

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Plan 1

Plan: the United States federal government should remove its embargo onhuman necessities such as food, water, medical care, housing, oil,information communication technology, and agriculture and retain smartsanctions; furthermore, the United States federal government should licenseand encourage trade with Cuba.


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Advantage 1 OFAC

OFAC is uniquely key to solve in Iranian ProliferationMaberry and Riemer 6/6 (J. Scott aberry has a J! from"eorgetown University #aw Center, atthew #. $iemer has a J!from the University of Chicago, %&'C continues to e)*and thesco*e of +ranian sanctions, June -, /01, #e)ology,htt*:22www.le)ology.com2library2detail.as*)3g4db/d5ac607-869-86b0e868c9157bbca&il, Petrochemical, and ircraft +ndustries.ce of 'oreign

ssets Control (OFAC! im"osed san#tions on entitiesand individuals t$at are"art of, or have done business with% Iran&s international "ro#urement and"roliferation o"erations' ($e targeted entities in#ludebranches of t$e

Iranian government (e.g., the +slamic $evolutionary "uard Cor*s and theinistry of !efense for rmed 'orces #ogistics% several Iranian"etro#$emi#al #om"anies% and a grou" of #or"orationsand individuals in?yrgy@stan, UAraine, and the United rab Bmirates that lease or sell aircraft to +ranian com*anies. ($esan#tions )ere im"osed *ursuant to B)ecutive &rders 01,1 (targeting"roliferators and su""orters of Iran&s )ea"ons of mass destru#tionand 01,877 (targeting the government of +ran.


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other elements of its *rovocative *olicies. =his reIects the formative inIuence of +rans domestic *oliticaldynamics, and its une)*ected evolution, on the regimes assessment of risAs and rewards.

And t$e embargo s$ifts OFAC "riorities a)ay from Irano$nson% +"e#tor and 2ila# 13 (ndy Johnson, !irector,Dational Security Program, ?yle S*ector, Policy dvisor, Dational

Security Program, ?ristina #ilac, Dational Security Program,Senior 'ellows of =he =hird Kay +nstitute, , Se*tember 0-, /0/,%Bnd the Bmbargo of Cuba, =he =hird Kay +nstitute,htt*:22content.thirdway.org2*ublications21-2=hirdLKayLemoL6

LBndLtheLBmbargoLofLCuba.*df.ee"ing t$e embargo in "la#e requires t$at t$e *+ governmentdevote time and resour#es to g$ting a Cold 4ar 5 era t$reat. SenatorChris -odd arguedin a //8 o* ed t$at t$e *+ s"ends e7traordinaryresour#es8 each yearto enfor#e t$e san#tions instead of devoting su#$resour#es to t$e g$t against terrorism'9 4$ilethe Gnancial resour#esdedi#ated to enfor#ing t$e embargo may be limitedcom*ared to resources

dedicated to other causes% lifting t$e Cuban embargo #ould "ut t$e *+ in abetter "osition to g$t terrorist organi9ations by freeing u"resour#es #urrently enfor#ing t$e embargo' 'or e)am*le, the =reasury!e*artments &>ce of 'oreign ssets Control (OFAC, )$i#$ governs travel and tradebet)een t$e *+ and Cuba% is also res"onsible for maintainingsan#tions againsttruly *roblematic countries, including Iran and :ort$ .orea. &'Calso is res*onsible for res*onding to economic threats *osed by terrorist organi@ations and narcotics

tra>cAers. ;y ending OFAC&s need to regulate t$eCuban embargo% OFAC#ould instead devote t$ose resour#es to res"ond to t$e #urrentt$reats*osed by rogue states and terrorist networAs

2ifting t$e embargo allo)s more san#tions on Iran

Maberry and ensen 1< (J. Scott aberry has a J.! from"eorgetown University #aw Center, arA #. Jensen has a J.! fromMarvard #aw School, ay 5, /01, %&'C gets hot, bothered on+ran and Cuba: how economic sanctions worA today, #e)ology,htt*:22www.le)ology.com2library2detail.as*)3g4-85e-ce6989a69eaf6bab6d8ea87ecddPeo*le who *ractice U.S. economic sanctions law liAe to talA about how san#tions are "oli#yoriented% or an engine of *'+' foreign "oli#y. 4$ereas some la)smay be more o"aquely *olitical, economic sanctions and embargoesseem to e7"ressmost bluntly $o) international leverage )orksthrough regulation. nd yet, a fe)re#ent regulatory develo"ments s$o) t$atthe direction that san#tionstaAe

is not al)ays "redi#table. =he U.S. !e*artment of =reasury, &>ce of 'oreign ssets Control(%OFAC $as $ad a rau#ously busy year' A torrent of develo"ment inla)sand regulations on Iran served as t$e unsur"rising fo#us of t$isyear&s OFAC sym"osium, held on arch 07, /01, in Kashington !.C. mong thedevelo"ments )ere san#tions im"osed on non*'+' banks% a newe7e#utive order related tothe *urchase of "etroleumand *etrochemical *roducts from+ran, an e7"anded s#o"e oft$e Iran (ransa#tions and Sanctions $egulations tocom*anies %o)ned or #ontrolled8 by *'+' #om"anies, and a ne) statutet$at targets se#tors of t$e e#onomy related to goods and servi#es to
http://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdfhttp://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdfhttp://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8657e6ce-454a-4eaf-ba8b-d225ea59ecddhttp://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8657e6ce-454a-4eaf-ba8b-d225ea59ecddhttp://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdfhttp://content.thirdway.org/publications/326/Third_Way_Memo_-_End_the_Embargo_of_Cuba.pdfhttp://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8657e6ce-454a-4eaf-ba8b-d225ea59ecddhttp://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=8657e6ce-454a-4eaf-ba8b-d225ea59ecdd


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+ran, in#ludingsecondary Gnancial transactions in energy% s$i""ing% s$i"building%"re#ious metal% and gra"$ite. See our recent *osts on +ran here and here. Per$a"st$e most striking as"e#t of t$e Iran san#tions "rogram is its"roliferation intonot only additional laws and regulations, but also additionalregulatory regimes' =he Com*rehensive +ran Sanctions, ccountability, and !ivestment ct of/0/ (%CI+A-A, the Dational !efense uthori@ation ct for /0 (%:-AA, and+ran =hreat$eduction and Syria Muman $ights ct of /0 (%I(R, $ave #reated a "olyglot systemfo#used onindividual se#tors of t$e e#onomy. &'C "resentersat the archsym*osium gave t$e sense of a "roliferation of la)s t$at is undoubtedlyaimed at a##om"lis$ing *'+' foreign "oli#y goals. ;ut t$e la)s are"arado7i#ally bot$ targeted(at industries, vessels, banAs! and in#rediblye7"ansivein Hurisdiction. ($e system is t$e embodiment of t$e "o)erfulyet somewhat disorgani9ed *'+'government "iling on everyt$ing it #an toe#onomi#ally over)$elm Iran. ($e Iran "rogram also serves as agood #ase study of $o) far and )ide e#onomi# san#tions #an be madeto reach. If legislation of "ast years $as "roved anyt$ing% it is t$at t$e*'+. Congress a""ears ready to use any and all meanswithin its legislativeauthority to san#tion Iran. +nsofar as Congress is able to ma* out the reach of the U.S. Gnancialsystem and economy further, it seems likely t$at additional san#tions )ill bea""lied'

Multilateral #oalitions t$roug$ san#tions solve"roliferation-e2eon et al 1= ($udy de#eon is a graduate from the John '.?ennedy School of "overnment at Marvard University, reci*ient of

=he !efense Civilian !istinguished Service ward in 0779, 0778,and //0, former US Senior !e*artment of !efense &>cial,written with rian ?atulis, Peter Juul, att !uss and ?en Sofer,

*ril, /0, %Strengthening mericas &*tions on +ran, $e*ort for=he Center for merican Progress,htt*:22www.american*rogress.org2w*6content2u*loads2issues2/02/92*df2iranL0/EuestionsL+D=$&.*df+ndeed, amid an array of "oliti#al transitions and military conIicts around the globe,t$e "ros"e#t of Iran a#quiring nu#lear )ea"ons $as galvani9ed aglobal debateon $o) to sto" t$e regimein =ehran from getting t$ebomb. ($isdebate $as s"illed over into t$e domesti# "oliti#sof the worldsgreat *owers, becoming a talAing *oint in the /0 U.S. *residential election and the subHect of behind6the6scenes discussion during Chinas transition to its ne)t generation of *olitical leadershi* at their Party

Congress this fall. +n the iddle Bast and Central sia, Iran&s nu#lear "rogram $asim"li#ations for t$e ongoing #ivil )ar in +yria% a "oliti#al transition

beset by economic troubles in >gy"t% andU.S. and D=& ground #ombat o"erationsin Afg$anistanentering their 0/th year. Oil "ri#e surges )orld)ide t$reatene#onomi# re#overiesaround the globeFre#overies Iran #ould t$)art in anumber of ways de*ending on how it reacts to global *ressure to come clean on its nuclear *rogram.

>vents are qui#kly "rodu#ing a de#ision "oint? concerned Israel )arnst$edi*lomatic #ommunityt$at its )indo) for military o*tions to delayor denyIran&s "otential )ea"on is not unlimited due to t$e "rogress Iran $asmadein hardening its nuclear facilities beyond +sraeli ca*ability to *enetrate them. t the same time, avigorous roster of nations is tig$tening t$e burden of e#onomi#
http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/04/pdf/iran_10questions_INTRO.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/04/pdf/iran_10questions_INTRO.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/04/pdf/iran_10questions_INTRO.pdfhttp://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/04/pdf/iran_10questions_INTRO.pdf


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san#tionsagainst +ranFisolating t$e #ountry&s already feeble e#onomy%which survives only because of its vast oil reserves. +ranFa longtime su**orter of terrorism, both directlyand through its *ro)ies, with a tracA record of dissimulation on its nuclear ambitionsFhas no reservoir of

credibility or good will, andits re"eated "rofessions t$at its nu#lear "rogramis "ea#eful deserve no benet of t$e doubt. &f course +ran could EuicAly defuse thecrisis and allow the ins*ectors of the +nternational tomic Bnergy gency full access to all facilities ofinterest so it can measure and catalogue +rans ca*ability to *roduce highly enriched uranium (the

essential element reEuired for wea*ons *roduction, and +ran could come clean on its Anown nuclearwea*ons research. s +B !irector "eneral NuAio mano a>rms% Iran needs to #oo"eratefully )it$ t$e @International Atomi# >nergygency on alloutstandingissues, *articularly those which give rise to concerns about the *ossible military dimensions to +ransnuclear *rogram, including by *roviding access without delay to all sites, eEui*ment, *ersons and

documents reEuested by the gency. It is Iran&s la#k of res"onse t$at fuels#on#ernsabout their nuclear ambitions. +m*ortantly, there is a strong bi*artisan consensus in mericaand within the inter national community on this single *ointFan +ranian nuclear wea*on would destabili@ethe one of the worlds most im*ortant oil6*roducing regions at a critical *oint in the global economicrecovery, would harm +sraels security, and would severely undermine the Duclear Don6Proliferation =reaty.Unfortunately, much of the *olitical debate in this U.S. election year now distracts from these central

realities. (oday t$e *nited +tates is leading a su##essful t$reeyearglobal eBort to isolate Irandi*lomatically and im"lement a broad range of

stri#teconomic

san#tions targeted at undermining its nu#lear "rogram.

($e Obama administration&s initial outrea#$to the +ranian regime in //7 didnot a#$ieveimmediate constructive results, but t$e demonstration ofmericangood fait$ forged greater international unityaround the *roblem andserved as an im"ortant for#e multi"lierfor subseEuent successful eOorts to *ressurethe regime. Dow% as talks )it$ t$e PD1 a""roa#$% Iran must #$oose $o)to res"ondto the growing global concerns about its nuclear *rogram and maAe the choice to live u*to its international obligations or fa#e in#reased international isolation. !uring the// cam*aign, candidate &bama defended his *ro*osed engagement *olicy by e)*laining that %)e&re@not going to be able to e7e#ute the Aind ofsan#tions )e need)it$outsome coo*eration with some countries liAe Russia and C$ina that...have e)tensive trade with +ranbut *otentially have an interest in maAing sure +ran doesnt have a nuclear wea*on. AErminghis

goal of %toug$% dire#t di"loma#y )it$ Iran, Obama a#kno)ledged t$atdi"loma#y may not )ork, butif it doesnt worA, then )e $ave strengt$enedour ability to form allian#es to im"ose toug$ san#tions'8Over the *astt$ree years% t$is is "re#isely )$atthe Obamaadministration a#$ieved. ($eengagement "oli#y $as served as an im"ortant for#e multi"lierfor eOorts to"ressurethe Iranian government. ;y giving Iran re"eated o""ortunitiestomeet its international res*onsibilities, t$is administration $as been able to forge afar stronger and more enduring international #oalition to "ressureIran. Far from strengt$ening t$e+ranian regime, as some critics have alleged,Obama&s engagement eBort $as in fa#t furt$er isolated it. ($e *nited+tates andits "artners in t$e PD1 grou" are o"erating from a"osition of strengt$that would have been hard to imagine four short years ago. U.S. *olicy on+ran should not be determined by *artisan *olitics and easy sound bites. Dor will U.S. *olicy obHectives be

EuicAly accom*lished. +nstead, t$is #risis requires "oli#ymakersand all citi@ens tochallenge their own *reconceived notions and make de#isions based on fa#ts )$ile"re"aring fully for all #ontingen#ies'

Iran "rolif leads to Middle >ast arms ra#e and ensuresnu#lear )arAllison 6 ("raham =illett llison Jr. is an merican *oliticalscientist and *rofessor at the John '. ?ennedy School of


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"overnment at Marvard, 'all //-, %=he Kill to Prevent, Marvard+nternational #aw $eview, le)is ne)iseanwhile, +ran is testing the line in the iddle Bast. &n its current traHectory, the +slamic $e*ublic willbecome a nuclear wea*ons state before the end of the decade. ccording to the leadershi* in =ehran, +ranis e)ercising its %inalienable right to build +ranian enrichment *lants and maAe fuel for its *eaceful civilian

nuclear *ower generators. =hese same fa#ilities, however, #an #ontinue enri#$ing

uranium to7/ *ercent U618, which is t$e ideal #ore of a nu#lear bomb'Do one inthe international community doubts that +rans hidden obHective in building enrichment facilities is to buildnuclear bombs. If Iran #rosses its nu#lear nis$ line% a Middle >astern#as#ade of ne) nu#lear )ea"ons states #ould trigger t$e rst multi"arty nu#lear arms ra#e% far more volatile t$an t$e Cold 4ar com*etitionbetween the United States and the Soviet Union. "iven >gy"t&shistoric role as the leader of the rabiddle Bast, the "ros"e#ts ofit living unarmed alongside a nu#lear Persiaare very lo)'=he +Bs re*orts of clandestine nuclear e)*eriments hint that Cairo may$ave #onsidered t$is "ossibility' 4ere +audi Arabia to buya do@ennu#lear )ar$eads t$at #ould be mated tothe C$inesemedium6range ballisticmissilesit *urchased secretly in the 07/s, fe)in the US intelligence community )ould besur"rised. "iven Saudi rabias role as the maHor Gnancier of PaAistans clandestine nuclear *rogramin the 07/s,

it is not out of t$e question t$at Riyad$ and Islamabad $avemade secret arrangementsfor this contingency. Such a multi"arty nu#lear armsra#e in t$e Middle >ast )ould beliAe *laying $ussian rouletteFdramati#allyin#reasing t$e likeli$ood of a regional nu#lear )ar' Ot$ernightmares#enariosfor the region in#lude an a##idental or unaut$ori9ednuclear laun#$from Iran% t$eft ofnuclear )ar$eads froman unstable regime in (e$ran% and"ossible Israeli "reem"tionagainst +rans nuclear facilities, which +sraeli Prime inisterBhud &lmert has im*lied, threatening, %Under no circumstances, and at no *oint, can +srael allow anyonewith these Ainds of malicious designs against us to have control of wea*ons of destruction that canthreaten our e)istence.


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Advantage = is +OI

C$inese looking to e7"and s"$ere of inuen#e in 2atinAmeri#a

($e >#onomist 6/60(M.=., %Khy has China snubbed Cuba and ene@uela3-2-201, =he Bconomist, htt*:22www.economist.com2blogs2economist6e)*lains2/012/-2economist6e)*lains6122N

Q+ J+DP+D"RS Grst visit to #atin merica and the Caribbean as Chinas*resident, from ay 10st to June -th, tooA him tantalisingly close to eiHingsstrongest ideological allies in the region, Cuba and ene@uela. Net he steered

clear of both of them. +nstead of visiting Cuba, as his *redecessor Mu Jintaodid on his Grst *residential tri* to the region, r Qi sto**ed oO in an Bnglish6s*eaAing Caribbean nation, =rinidad and =obago, which (as if to rub it in isonly a short ho* from Caracas. Me then travelled to Costa $ica and e)ico(*icturedFtwo countries that are at least as much a *art of mericas orbitas Cuba and ene@uela are *art of the %eiHing Consensus. Khy this snub totwo friendly nations that have been lavished with Chinese largesse in recentyears, es*ecially at a time when both are struggling to come to terms withthe death in arch of Mugo Chve@, the Cuba6 and China6loving ene@uelanleader3


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to e)ico and Costa $ica may also re*resent a *ivot of sorts in terms of thety*e of economic relationshi* China has with #atin merica. U* until now,China has hoovered u* the regions commodities, im*orting soya, co**er,iron, oil and other raw materials, *articularly from ra@il, Chile and ene@uela,while Iooding the region with its manufactured goods. ut its relations withe)ico, a rival in low6cost manufacturing, have been frosty: China accounts

for only about /./8 of e)ican foreign direct investment, and it e)*orts tentimes as much to e)ico as it im*orts.< ut as wages in China have increasedand high energy *rices have raised the cost of shi**ing goods from China tomerica, eiHing may be looAing for bases such as e)ico and Costa $icawhere it can relocate Chinese factories and beneGt from free6tradeagreements with the United States. =his idea thrills the e)ican government,but does it *ose an immediate threat to ene@uela and Cuba3 Probably not:China will continue to need their staunch ideological su**ort over issues liAe

=aiwan, for one thing. ut it does suggest that Chinas economic interest inthe region is broadening, es*ecially along the PaciGc coast. +f that *roves tobe the case, Cuba and ene@uela, de*rived of the charismatic Chve@ tocourt eiHing on their behalf, will have to worA hard to stay relevant.

2atin Ameri#a ne) global arena for "o)er;;C 6/GF(%China commentary says #atin merica arena for *ower struggle

June 9, /01, le)isne)is22N

=e)t of commentary by Sun Mongbo headlined V#atin merica arena for global*owersV *ublished by Chinese news*a*er "lobal =imes website on 1 Junecials, from dmiraliAe ullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of StaO, on down, who, whilecommitted to maintaining and even e)*anding U.S. *resence in the PaciGc,consider Chinas rise as *art of a regional alignment that can be managed. &fcourse, there are others, more numerous, such as President &bamasDational Security dvisor =om !onilon, who are worried about Chinas%unchecAed inIuence in the region. [05\< lthough Chinas economic*rowess has attracted the interest of other countries in the region, it also has

greatly e)*anded its investment in the military, es*ecially with naval vesselsand so*histicated electronic eEui*ment. Some analysts, such as lfredcCoy, foresee an eventual U.S.2China military conIict that may very well beresolved in favor of China, es*ecially as a conseEuence of its growing networAof su*ercom*uters and cyber warfare. [0\ &n the other hand, there arethose scholars liAe "iovanni rrighi who, taAing the long view of Chinasgeo*olitical role in the world, see an alternative outcome. ccording torrighi,< Kould it not be in Chinas best interest, one, to let the U.S. e)haustitself militarily and Gnancially in an endless war on terror; two, to enrich itselfby su**lying goods and credits to an increasingly incoherent U.S.su*er*ower; and three, use its e)*anding national marAet and wealth to winover allies (including some U.S. cor*orations in the creation of a new worldorder centered on China, but not necessarily dominated militarily by China3[07\< "iven the classical and more recent articulation of Chinas military andgeostrategic *osture in the world, it is hard to imagine why and how Chinawould directly engage the United States in any armed conIict. 'rom Sun =@uand other classic treatises on military strategy, the focus is on understatingones *ower and outmaneuvering an o**onent by stealth and *atience.

=hese strategic insights have been re6articulated in the directives of !engQiao*ing to %observe calmly; secure our *osition; co*e with aOairs calmly;hide our ca*acities and bide our time; be good at mani*ulating a low *roGle,never claim leadershi*. [/\< Khile it is not $ard to imagine t$at C$inamay )is$ to bide its time and remain an e#onomi# "o)er$ouse)it$out e7a#erbating geo"oliti#al as$"oints, such as =aiwan% it ismore diE#ult to assume t$at t$e *+ )ill renoun#e itsindis"ensable8 leaders$i" and ste" do)n from its military "reeminen#e. ggressive e)*ansion and intervention is dee*ly rooted in thedevelo*ment and maintenance of the US Bm*ire. [0\ oreover, as one studyof US2China dynamics *oints out, %it is more di>cult for the leaders of adeclining hegemon to acce*t the reality or *ros*ect of their countrysdiminished inIuence and status. [\< &ne must turn, therefore, to *riorhistorical e)am*les of the conIicts between rising and declining hegemons or


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com*eting hegemons in order to *rovide more conte)t to the *resent andfuture conIict between the U.S. and China. +n Paul ?ennedys recounting ofthe growing antagonism between Bngland and "ermany leading u* to KK+,geo*olitical conIicts and military im*eratives *layed a signiGcant, if notsolely determining, role in their eventual clash. [1\ =he history of the ColdKar was re*lete with geo*olitical conIicts that were *ro)y or surrogate

battles between the U.S. and $ussia. [9\ Perha*s, as in the case of the ColdKar, containment will be the *referred strategy of the U.S. and direct militaryconIict will not occur. &n the other hand, the Soviet Union was never aneconomic threat to the U.S., nor was the U.S. in the dire circumstances ofim*erial overstretch.

I:+>R( CKI:A *+ 4AR IMPAC(


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Advantage < is IC(

($e demo#ra#y A#t of 1LL= and =33L a#ts nonuniquesyour -A&s but is #urrently insuE#ient to solve for t$e IC(infrastru#ture #urrently neededPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published

July /0/ htt*:22www.brooAings.edu2_2media2events2/0/25208/cuba/communications2/5LcubaLtelecommunicationsL*iccone.*df 2ccessed5205201CSmith

=here is an alternative a**roach to resolving this dilemma. nother longstanding U.S. *olicy goal,

articulated both rhetorically andin su#$ legislation as t$e Cuban -emo#ra#y A#tof 1LL=, U.S.C. -//0, is to su""ort t$e Cuban "eo"le in t$eir dailystruggles to #o"e )it$ t$e de"rivations of life in a #losedaut$oritarian regime''acilitating contact within families is certainly one way to ease the strainof se*aration among loved ones, both on and oO the island.(o t$at end% *'+' la) allo)s%inter alia, t$e saleand donations of food, the e)*ort of medicines and medical su**lies, and t$e"rovision of tele#ommuni#ations fa#ilities in su#$ quantity and ofsu#$ quality as may be ne#essary to "rovide eE#ient and adequatetele#ommuni#ations servi#es bet)een t$e *nited +tates and Cuba'8 U.S.C. -//9. +n other words, Congress $as already aut$ori9ed transa#tionst$at "ermit t$e kind of eE#ient and adequate8 IC( servi#es t$at )etake for granted today. =aAen from this *ers*ective, and given the telecommunicationsrevolution since the ct was *assed, it is #lear t$at *'+' "oli#y s$ould dramati#allye7"and t$e availability of modern information and #ommuni#ationservi#es to t$e Cuban "eo"le' ($e Obama administration #an su""ortt$e Cuban "eo"le&s basi# quality of life and t$eir rig$t to informationby re)riting its regulations to allo) t$e sale of all ty"es of IC(equi"ment and "ermit *'+' investments in IC(% in#luding mobiledevi#es and ber o"ti# #ables redu#ing t$e red ta"e of #aseby#aseli#ensing and lifting restri#tions% es"e#ially on nan#ialtransa#tions% t$at limit #onsumer s"ending on IC( and t$e ability ofordinary Cubans to engage in e#ommer#e% t$us $el"ing to lessenindividual #iti9ens& de"enden#y on t$e state'

Cuba&s e#onomy is #olla"sing around t$em and t$ey are#linging to unsustainable "ra#ti#es' Only moderni9ing andeliminating ineE#ien#ies #an solve2eogrande and ($omas =(Killiam . #eo"rande is Professor of "overnment in the School of PublicOairs at merican University. Julie . =homas is Gnishing her Ph!
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/events/2010/7/15%20cuba%20communications/07_cuba_telecommunications_piccone.pdf%20/Accessed%207/17/13


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dissertation at the School of Public Oairs, merican University. CubaRs ^uestfor Bconomic +nde*endence Published ay //htt*:22www.Hstor.org2stable215857 . ccessed 520201 CSmith

Kaving nally es#a"ed de"enden#y on sugar% Cuba runs some risk ofbe#oming de"endent on tourism'=he tourist sector has been by far the fastest growingsector in the 077/s, *aying for an ever6increasing share of im*orts. ;ut )$et$er tourism"rovides a viable foundation for develo"ment in t$e long term isdebatable' It is not a $ig$ valueadded business and fails to e7"loitCubaHs "rin#i"al #om"arative advantageover its Caribbean and Central mericanneighbours 6 a )elledu#ated and skilled )ork for#e'oreover, as t$egro)ing tourist se#tor attra#ts )orkers into even marginal Nobsbe#ause it oBers a #$an#e to earn dollars% it is #orroding t$e"o"ulationHs in#entive to gain $ig$er edu#ation, thereby de*reciating the islandRshuman ca*ital. 'rom 077/ to 077 enrolment in higher education fell 8 *er cent.- Foreigninvestment and remittan#es $ave be#ome CubaHs ne) sour#e ofe7ternal #a"ital, substituting for Soviet economic assistance. +nvestment has grown as thegovernment has tried to create a more hos*itable business climate, but t$e results $ave

been modest%*artlybe#ause of #ontinuing "oliti#al risk fa#tors and*artly be#ause of 4as$ingtonHs aggressive eBorts to restri#t #a"italo)sthrough both legislation and di*lomacy. efore Cuba can gain access to signiGcant Gnancingthrough international loans it must still Gnd some solution to its international debt *roblem.

Remittan#es $ave been t$e largestand fastest gro)ing sour#e ofe7ternal #a"ital o)sto the island 6 a circumstance by no means uniEue to Cuba (remittances*lay a crucial role in the e)ican, Dicaraguan, Salvadoran and !ominican economies, as well. ;ut t$eCuban #ase is ironi# be#ause t$e sour#e of t$is #a"ital is a CubanAmeri#an #ommunity t$at remains im"la#ably $ostile to t$e Cubanregime'=he severe domestic *rivation of the mid6077os, re*lete with food shortages and malnutrition,has now *assed, although consum*tion remains far below what it was in 077. ($e limitedmarket reformsintroduced since 0771 $ave su##essfully stabilised t$e

e#onomy.5 ,oing for)ard% $o)ever% t$e issue is )$et$er t$egovernment )ill be able to maintain e#onomi# gro)t$while strictly limitingany further intrusion of marAet mechanisms, or will be forced by circumstances to e)tend them, its *olitical

anti*athy notwithstanding. ($e state se#tor of t$e e#onomy remains $ig$lyineE#ient% #onstituting a serious drag on gro)t$. +f the government continuessubsidising un*roGtable enter*rises it will be very di>cult to control the Gscal deGcit. A large and"ersistent s#al de#it(covered by e)*anding the *eso money su**ly )ill #ause alongterm deterioration of t$e "esodollar e7#$ange rate%aggravating t$e so#ial tensions and e#onomi# distortions t$at $avealready been #reated by CubaHs monetary dualism' ($us t$e statusquo seems untenable in t$e long run

Cuban instability #olla"se #auses 2atin Ameri#aninstability and terror atta#ks,orrell% 2ieutenant Colonel% =33(=im, %CU: =MB DBQ= UDD=+C+P=B! D=+C+P=B! S=$=B"+C C$+S+S3arch 0, &nline: htt*:22www.dtic.mil2cgi6bin2"et=$!oc3!4!911/59
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074


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$egardless of the succession, under t$e #urrent *'+' "oli#y% Cuba&s "roblems ofa "ost Castro transformation only )orsen ' In addition to Cubans ont$e island% t$ere )ill be t$ose in e7ile )$o )ill return #laimingaut$ority'nd t$ere are remnants of t$e dissident #ommunity )it$inCuba )$o )ill attem"t to e7er#ise similar aut$ority' A "o)er va#uumor absen#e of order )ill #reate t$e #onditions for instability and #ivil

)ar. Khether Raul or anot$er su##essorfrom within the current government can hold*ower is debatable. Mowever, that individual )ill nonet$eless e7tend t$e #urrent"oli#ies for an indenite "eriod% )$i#$ )ill only #om"ound t$e Cubansituation' 4$en Cuba nally #olla"ses anar#$y is a strong "ossibilityif t$e *'+' maintains t$e )ait and see8 a""roa#$ ' ($e *'+' t$enmust deal )it$ an unstable #ountry L3 miles oB its #oast . +n the midst ofthis chaos, t$ousands )ill ee t$e island'!uring the ariel boatlift in 07/ 08,/// Iedthe island.- Many )ere #riminals t$is time t$e number #ould be several$undred t$ousand eeing to t$e *'+'% #reat ing a refugee #risis.


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im*orts of liEueGed natural gas (#D", are vulnerable targets. Unfortunately, as e)*erience has shown in

frica, the iddle Bast, and #atin merica, terrorists are likely to strike at *'+' and>uro"ean interests in Caribbean #ountries ' +e#urity issues be#omeeven more #riti#al )$en one #onsiders t$e "ossible use of Caribbean#ountries by terrorists as bases from )$i#$ to atta#k t$e *nited+tates. An airliner $iNa#ked after de"arture from an air"ort in t$e

nort$ern Caribbean or t$e ;a$amas #an be ying over +out$ Floridain less t$an an $our ' (errorists #an sabotage or sei9e #ontrol of a#ruise s$i" after t$e vessel leaves a Caribbean "ort. oreover, terrorists)it$ false "ass"orts and visas issued in t$e Caribbean may be ableto move easily t$roug$ "ass"ort #ontrols in Canada or t$e *nited+tates '(=o hel* counter this *ossibility, some countries have sus*ended Veconomic citi@enshi*V*rograms to ensure that Anown terrorists have not been inadvertently granted such citi@enshi*. gain,

Caribbean #ountries are as vulnerable as any)$ere else to t$e#landestine manufa#ture and de"loyment of biologi#al )ea"ons)it$in national borders.

;iologi#al )ea"on use results in e7tin#tion'+teinbruner% +enior fello) at ;rookings% 1LL(John, %iological wea*ons: a *lague u*on all houses, Foreign Policy, Kinter,ProEuest

lthough human *athogens are often lum*ed with nuclear e)*losives and lethal chemicals as *otentialwea*ons of mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally im*ortant diOerence: Pathogens are

alive, wea*ons are not. :u#learand chemical )ea"ons do not re"rodu#ethemselvesanddo not inde*endently engage in ada"tive be$avior "at$ogens doboth ofthese things. =hat dece*tively sim*le observation has immense im*lications. =he use of amanufa#tured )ea"onis a singular event. ost of the damage occurs immediately. =heaftereBe#ts, whatever they may be, de#ay ra"idly over timeand distance in areasonably "redi#table manner'Bven before a nuclear warhead is detonated, for instance, it is

*ossible to estimate the e)tent of the subseEuent damage and the liAely level of radioactive fallout. Such*redictability is an essential com*onent for tactical military *lanning. =he use of a "at$ogen, bycontrast, is an e)tended *rocess whose sco*e and timing #annot be*recisely #ontrolled''ormost *otential biological agents, the *redominant drawbacA is that they would not act swiftly or decisively

enough to be an eOective wea*on. ut for a few "at$ogens6 ones most likely to $ave ade#isive eBe#t and t$ereforethe ones most likely to be #ontem"latedfor deliberately $ostile use6 the risA runs in the other direction. lethal *athogen t$at#ould eE#iently s"read from one vi#tim to anot$er )ould be #a"ableof initiating an intensifying #as#ade of disease t$a t mig$t ultimatelyt$reaten t$e entire )orld "o"ulation ' ($e 1L15 inuen9a e"idemi#demonstrated t$e "otential for a global #ontagion of t$is sortbut notnecessarily its outer limit.

IC( solves long term sustainability and innovation in CubaPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published



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A##ess to information and #ommuni#ation te#$nologies, including theinternet and mobile *hones, goes beyond t$e im"ortan#e of information as ageneral "ubli# good' >7tensive resear#$% e7"erien#e and ane#dotaleviden#e $ave demonstrated t$at #onne#tivity0t$roug$ t$e internetand t$roug$ #ell "$ones0are essential #om"onents of modernday%

longterm e#onomi# develo"ment and even $uman survival' Moderntele#ommuni#ations strengt$ens "rodu#tivity% allo)s for moreeE#ient distribution% redu#es transa#tion #osts% and lo)ers t$ebarrier to entry into t$e market% t$us e7"anding t$e e#onomi#a#tivities of #iti9ens'&ne study concluded that %an in#rease of 13 mobile"$ones "er 133 "eo"le boosts "er #a"ita ,-P gro)t$ by '6 "er#ent'8=he e)*ansion of +C= brings more than Hust economic growth, however. >viden#e $asdemonstrated a relations$i" bet)een teledensity and quality of lifeindi#ators0even #ontrolling for ,-P0su#$ as life e7"e#tan#y% lo)erinfant mortality rates% and t$e rate of formation and gro)t$ of ne)enter"rises' =he following are some of the *ositive beneGts that access to modern +C= servicescould oOer Cuban citi@ens today: 0! Im"roving t$e o) of e#onomi# and market

information? ($roug$out t$e )orld #onne#tivity $as $ad a #riti#alleveling eBe#t for small "rodu#ersFfrom Gshermen to small manufacturersF#uttingout middle men and allo)ing t$em to seek t$e best "ri#es for t$eir"rodu#ts'=his information is also im"ortant for linking to global markets' A4orld ;ank survey of 6 develo"ed and develo"ing #ountries founda signi#ant link bet)een Internet a##ess and trade gro)t$0with thegreatest beneGts accruing to develo*ing countries with the weaAest trade linAs.1 =! >7"andinga##ess to nan#es and #redit: oda*hone and other mobile "$one #om"anies$ave develo"ed an array of a""li#ations t$at $ave e7"anded bankinga##ess t$roug$ mobile banking' +u#$ innovations are "arti#ularly"o)erful for Cubans )$o #ould #on#eivably re#eive remittan#es andot$er nan#ial transa#tions t$roug$ mobile "$ones if t$e "ro"erte#$nology and infrastru#ture )ere in "la#e'1 !irectly and indirectly generatinga modernday worAforce that can com*ete in todays information6driven economy: ;roadbaseda##ess to IC( is essential to #om"eting in today&s global informationand kno)ledgebased e#onomy by allo)ing #ommunities and "rivateindividualsF inde*endent of the stateFto gain sAills, channels and ca*acity. ($e lo)barriers to entry ensure t$at even t$e "oor and rural se#tors of t$e"o"ulation #an gain easy a##ess. 9 Providing #$annels of#ommuni#ation to avert $umanitarian disastersand assist in reconstructioneOorts: ($e International Committee of t$e Red Cross $as develo"ed aneBe#tive strategy using mobile "$ones not only to )arn #iti9ens ofim"ending natural disasters% but also to $el" guide t$em to safetyand raise and deliver funds and $umanitarian assistan#e after t$etragedy "asses'G ($is is "arti#ularly relevant in $urri#ane"roneCuba% )$ere su#$ systems #ould $el" avert $uman loss if IC(servi#es )ere "la#ed in t$e $ands of #iti9ens. =he long6term economic *otential ofthe internet was forcefully articulated by Secretary of State Millary Clinton last January: %]we Anow fromlong e)*erience that *romoting social and economic develo*ment in countries where *eo*le lacA access toAnowledge, marAets, ca*ital, and o**ortunity can be frustrating and sometimes futile worA. +n this conte)t,

the internet can serve as a great eEuali@er. ;y "roviding "eo"le )it$ a##ess tokno)ledge and "otential markets% net)orks #an #reate o""ortunities)$ere none e7ist'8 >ven in#remental #$anges in e7"anding


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#onne#tivity and a##ess to IC( #ould go a long )ay to)ard alleviatingt$e e#onomi# struggles and $ealt$ and $uman risks in$erent inliving under a #losed% aut$oritarian regime. +ronically, $o)ever% #urrent*'+' regulations restri#t t$e very a##ess ne#essary to make t$is$a""en' >7"anding t$e o""ortunity for *'+' tele#oms investors and#om"anies to "rovide #ell "$one and internet servi#e to t$e island

)ill $el" ensure t$at Cuban #iti9ens "ossess t$e tools to be#ome"rodu#tive e#onomi# #iti9ensonce the shacAles of *olitical and economic state control areremoved. (o say t$is is not to deny or minimi9e t$e very real #ontrolst$at t$e Cuban government "la#es on its o)n #iti9ens& a##ess to t$einternet' ;ut e7"anding #iti9ens& a##ess to even t$e mostrudimentary te#$nology in Cuba )ould be a giant ste" for)ard ine#onomi#ally em"o)ering a ne)% inde"endent generation of Cuban#iti9ens'


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Advantage is Kuman

Rig$ts(dont read w2 &'C

First t$e *+ needs to ado"t a #onsistent strategy to$uman rig$ts to end o""ressionM#-onoug$ =/11 (my c!onough is a *rogram assistantwith the &*en Society 'oundations, *reviously worAed at JohnSnow, +nc. (JS+ on US+!s aternal and Child Mealth ProHect, ..in !i*lomacy and Korld Oairs from &ccidental College, %Muman

$ights and the 'ailings of U.S. Public !i*lomacy in Burasia,'ebruary 00, /01, Mu>ngton Post,htt*:22www.hu>ngton*ost.com2amy6mcdonough2human6rights6and6the6failLbL--9--5.html=he United States has two distinct a**roaches to human rights violations in the countries of the former

Soviet Union.cialsR *ublic statements onU@beAistan, ?a@aAhstan, elarus, =aHiAistan and $ussia, as shown in a recently *ublished &S' *olicy *a*er,

VMuman $ights and the 'ailings of U.S. Public !i*lomacy in Burasia.Vcials tend to em*hasi@e the *ositive as*ects of the res*ective countriesR behaviorwhile ignoring *ersistent violations of human rights. Khen U.S. o>cials do mention human rights anddemocracy, they are usually buried at the end of a list of issues. ut the United States taAes the o**ositea**roach toward elarus. U.S. o>cials strongly condemn human rights violations and treat im*rovements

in democratic governance as a reEuirement for im*roving bilateral relations.


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the second &bama dministration *resents an o**ortunity for the United States to rea>rm its values bytaAing the following ste*s:


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a $umanitarian travesty, of course.Dor are Cubans the only victims: threeyears ago the regime Hailed a State !e*artment contractor for distributingsatellite tele*hone eEui*ment in Cuba.ut Mavana is not the only regime to violate humanrights. oreover, e)*erience has long demonstrated that it is virtually im*ossible for outsiders to forcedemocracy. Kashington often has used sanctions and the &>ce of 'oreign ssets Control currently is

enforcing around / such *rograms, mostly to little eOect.gy"t and Israel follo)ing t$e Cam" -avid A##ords'sMuddleston and Pascual state, %a great lesson of demo#ra#yis that it #annot be im"osed; itmust come from within. []\ Our "oli#y s$ould t$erefore en#om"ass t$e"oliti#al% e#onomi#% and di"lomati# tools to enable t$e Cuban "eo"leto engage in and dire#t t$e "oliti#s of t$eir #ountry (Muddleston 09. =hemobili@ation of the Cuban *eo*le on the issues of democrati@ation, which are inherently linAed to the

human rights violations in Cuba, is a Grst ste* to *roducing changes in Cuba. merican engagement withthe Cuban *eo*le, currently lacAing under the embargo *olicy, will *rovide the im*etus in Cuban society to

*roduce regime change. 'urthermore, integrating *'+'Cuba relations on amultilateral level )ill ease t$e burdenont$e*nited +tates in fosteringdemocracy and a better human rights record in the country, as other states will be more involved in the

*rocess. +n contrast to a *olicy of isolation, normali9ed relations )ill allo) Ameri#ato engage Cuba in ne) areas% o"ening t$e door for demo#rati9ationand $uman rig$tsim*rovements from within the Cuban state itself.
http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/http://prospectjournal.org/2012/07/23/evaluating-the-cuban-embargo/


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` 9.: Kith di*lomatic relations in *lace, t$e*nited +tates may dire#tly "romote $umanrig$tsin the country through negotiations, conferences, arbitration and mediation. Providing t$esu""ort% resour#es% and infrastru#ture to "romote demo#rati#systems in Cuba #ould "rodu#e immense im"rovements to t$e$uman rig$tssituation in the nation. Dormali@ing di*lomatic relations with the state will also allowmerica to truly su**ort freedom of o*inion and e)*ression in Cuba, which it cannot currently *romote

under the isolationist *olicy. 'urthermore, through di*lomatic relations and friendly su**ort, Cuba will bemore willing to *artici*ate in the international system, as well as directly with the United States, as an ally.s the United States, along with the international community as a whole, hel*s and su**orts Cubaseconomic growth, Cuban society will eventually *ush for greater *rotection of human rights.

` 9.1: 2ifting e#onomi# san#tions )ill im"rove e#onomi# gro)t$ inCuba% )$i#$ #orrelates to demo#rati9ation'Bm*irical evidence shows that a strongeconomy is correlated to democracy. ccording to the oderni@ation =heory of democrati@ation, this

correlation is a causal linA: economic growth directly leads to democrati@ation. 2ifting t$e#urrent e#onomi# san#tions on Cubaand worAing together to im*rove economicsituations in the state )ill allo) t$eir e#onomy to gro)% in#reasing t$elikeli$ood of demo#ra#yin the state, and thus *romoting greater freedom of e)*ression,o*inion and dissent.

` 9.9: A "oli#y of engagement )ill be a longterm solution to "romotingdemo#ra#y and im"roving $uman rig$ts in Cuba'=his *ro*osal, uniEue in that itis sim*ly one of abandoning an antiEuated *olicy and normali@ing relations to be liAe those with any othercountry, does not *resent any large obstacles to im*lementation, either in the short run or the long run.=he main challenge is in continuing to su**ort such a *olicy and maintaining the normal di*lomatic,economic and social relations with a country that has been isolated for such a long *eriod of time.

lthough eOects of such a *olicy may be di>cult to determine in the short term, "romotingdemo#ra#y and im"roving $uman rig$ts in Cuba are longtermsolutions's discussed above, engagement with the Cuban government and society, along withsu**ort from the international community, will *rovide the s*arA and guidance for the Cuban *eo*le tosu**ort and *romote democracy, and thus give greater attention to human rights violations.

:ot lifting t$e embargo allo)s systemi# geno#ide andviolation of $uman rig$ts*:,A 1= (United Dations "eneral ssembly, %Decessity of

ending the economic, commercial and Gnancial blocAade im*osedby the United States of merica against Cuba, July, /0,cubavsbloEueo.cu,htt*:22www.cubavsbloEueo.cu2informebloEueo/02+diomas20/-/6informe/bloEueo//0/+ngles.*df($e*olicy of blo#kade against Cuba "ersistsand $as been intensieddes"ite t$e attem"ts of and gro)ing "rotests by the internationalcommunityto have the US government change its *olicy towards


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trillion 66 billion(0,/--,///,///,/// dollars. At #urrent "ri#es% and based ona very #onservative estimate% t$is gure e7#eeds 135 billion (0/,///,///,/// dollars.


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+olven#y

Castro )ill allo) *+ salesKe needs $ard #urren#yout)eig$s "oliti#al #on#ernsPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published


Ke Anow t$ere is a strong #orrelation bet)een a##ess to IC( ande#onomi# gro)t$ and develo"ment' Conversely% t$e largeinvestments required for IC( infrastru#ture )ill only take "la#e )$ent$ere is a revenue model to su""ort t$e investment and "rovideinvestors )it$ marketbased rates of return' In t$e #ase of Cuba% t$isbe#ame #lear )it$ #ellular "$ones' As little as ve years ago% t$ere)ere Nust a fe) t$ousand mobile "$ones in Cuba, almost all of them in thehands of government o>cials, foreigners and members of the elite. Since //, )$en PresidentRaul Castro announ#ed t$e lifting of t$e ban on #ell "$ones% t$enumberof cell *hones is ra"idly a""roa#$ing one million' ($e reason issim"le0#ell "$one revenues $ave be#ome an im"ortant sour#e of$ard #urren#y' ($e e#onomi# model out)eig$ed "oliti#al #on#erns' +t isunreasonable to ho*e for the develo*ment of other +C=s, such as the internet and social media, without

economic models to maAe them worA. =hus, t$e #$allenge for *'+' "oli#ymakers

#onsistsnot only in eOecting targeted reforms to its 8/6year old embargo, but in broadlylifting all restri#tions t$at $inder t$e develo"ment of an e#onomi#model #a"able of sustaining t$e requisite investments in IC( inCuba% and t$e #orres"onding #onsumer demand for t$e servi#es' A"ie#emeal a""roa#$ )ill sim"ly not do t$e Nob'

+mart san#tions resolve Cuba Able to target "oliti#alleaders )it$out $arming #ivilians retag t$is!Ale7ander Be#tS se#ures every "ersonHs rig$t to vetoVa certain Aind of attem*t to maAe theworld a better *lace at his e)*ense.V8 It atta#ks t$e "urely utilitarian a""roa#$(the ma)imi@ation of usefulness which, in the case of sanctions, could sacriGce the health and *ros*erityof a whole *eo*le for the saAe of the e)ternal *olitical *ur*oses of member states in the Security Councilor of another state coalition. (=his could be clariGed case by case in such measures as the sanctions *lacedagainst +raE, 'ormer Nugoslavia, Maiti, etc.

($e sa#ri#e of a )$ole "eo"le for t$e sake of t$e strategi# interestsof a su"er"o)er or of a #oalition of states as may be formed )it$in

t$e +e#urity Coun#il! )ould a""ear to be in no )ay et$i#allyNustiable.- ssertions to this eOect have already been made in connection with the sanctionsagainst South frica: if there are no general criteria for morally evaluating a *articular *olitical strategy,then those who have to bear the *rimary costs of measures such as sanctions should be able to decidewhether they are to be im*osed.5 =he general ethical *rinci*le guiding the use of sanctions should thusbe that consideration be taAen of the aOected *o*ulation in the formulation of such measures. Preciselythis *rinci*le, however, is e)cluded by the nature of the coercive measures in accordance with Cha*ter ++of the UD Charter. s merican authors have illustrated in an evaluation of the sanctions *olicy in the waAeof the "ulf Kar, economic sanctions cause the civilian *o*ulation to be held hostage in its own country.easures such as those which e)*licitly intend to harm the *o*ulation are to be Hudged as amoral,7 forVone cannot intentionally cri**le an economy without intentionally aOecting the *eo*le whose worAing andconsuming lives are *artially constitutive of that economy.V1/


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Plan =Plan: the United States federal government should modify its economic

embargo against the $e*ublic of Cuba to allow the trade of food, medicine,and communication technologies.


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Advantage 1

C$inese looking to e7"and s"$ere of inuen#e in 2atinAmeri#a

($e >#onomist 6/60(M.=., %Khy has China snubbed Cuba and ene@uela3-2-201, =he Bconomist, htt*:22www.economist.com2blogs2economist6e)*lains2/012/-2economist6e)*lains6122N

Q+ J+DP+D"RS Grst visit to #atin merica and the Caribbean as Chinas*resident, from ay 10st to June -th, tooA him tantalisingly close to eiHingsstrongest ideological allies in the region, Cuba and ene@uela. Net he steeredclear of both of them. +nstead of visiting Cuba, as his *redecessor Mu Jintao

did on his Grst *residential tri* to the region, r Qi sto**ed oO in an Bnglish6s*eaAing Caribbean nation, =rinidad and =obago, which (as if to rub it in isonly a short ho* from Caracas. Me then travelled to Costa $ica and e)ico(*icturedFtwo countries that are at least as much a *art of mericas orbitas Cuba and ene@uela are *art of the %eiHing Consensus. Khy this snub totwo friendly nations that have been lavished with Chinese largesse in recentyears, es*ecially at a time when both are struggling to come to terms withthe death in arch of Mugo Chve@, the Cuba6 and China6loving ene@uelanleader3


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ty*e of economic relationshi* China has with #atin merica. U* until now,China has hoovered u* the regions commodities, im*orting soya, co**er,iron, oil and other raw materials, *articularly from ra@il, Chile and ene@uela,while Iooding the region with its manufactured goods. ut its relations withe)ico, a rival in low6cost manufacturing, have been frosty: China accountsfor only about /./8 of e)ican foreign direct investment, and it e)*orts ten

times as much to e)ico as it im*orts.< ut as wages in China have increasedand high energy *rices have raised the cost of shi**ing goods from China tomerica, eiHing may be looAing for bases such as e)ico and Costa $icawhere it can relocate Chinese factories and beneGt from free6tradeagreements with the United States. =his idea thrills the e)ican government,but does it *ose an immediate threat to ene@uela and Cuba3 Probably not:China will continue to need their staunch ideological su**ort over issues liAe

=aiwan, for one thing. ut it does suggest that Chinas economic interest inthe region is broadening, es*ecially along the PaciGc coast. +f that *roves tobe the case, Cuba and ene@uela, de*rived of the charismatic Chve@ tocourt eiHing on their behalf, will have to worA hard to stay relevant.

2atin Ameri#a ne) global arena for "o)er;;C 6/GF(%China commentary says #atin merica arena for *ower struggle

June 9, /01, le)isne)is22N

=e)t of commentary by Sun Mongbo headlined V#atin merica arena for global*owersV *ublished by Chinese news*a*er "lobal =imes website on 1 Junecials, from dmiraliAe ullen, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of StaO, on down, who, whilecommitted to maintaining and even e)*anding U.S. *resence in the PaciGc,consider Chinas rise as *art of a regional alignment that can be managed. &fcourse, there are others, more numerous, such as President &bamas

Dational Security dvisor =om !onilon, who are worried about Chinas%unchecAed inIuence in the region. [05\< lthough Chinas economic*rowess has attracted the interest of other countries in the region, it also hasgreatly e)*anded its investment in the military, es*ecially with naval vesselsand so*histicated electronic eEui*ment. Some analysts, such as lfredcCoy, foresee an eventual U.S.2China military conIict that may very well beresolved in favor of China, es*ecially as a conseEuence of its growing networAof su*ercom*uters and cyber warfare. [0\ &n the other hand, there arethose scholars liAe "iovanni rrighi who, taAing the long view of Chinasgeo*olitical role in the world, see an alternative outcome. ccording torrighi,< Kould it not be in Chinas best interest, one, to let the U.S. e)haustitself militarily and Gnancially in an endless war on terror; two, to enrich itself

by su**lying goods and credits to an increasingly incoherent U.S.su*er*ower; and three, use its e)*anding national marAet and wealth to winover allies (including some U.S. cor*orations in the creation of a new worldorder centered on China, but not necessarily dominated militarily by China3[07\< "iven the classical and more recent articulation of Chinas military andgeostrategic *osture in the world, it is hard to imagine why and how Chinawould directly engage the United States in any armed conIict. 'rom Sun =@uand other classic treatises on military strategy, the focus is on understatingones *ower and outmaneuvering an o**onent by stealth and *atience.

=hese strategic insights have been re6articulated in the directives of !engQiao*ing to %observe calmly; secure our *osition; co*e with aOairs calmly;hide our ca*acities and bide our time; be good at mani*ulating a low *roGle,never claim leadershi*. [/\< Khile it is not $ard to imagine t$at C$inamay )is$ to bide its time and remain an e#onomi# "o)er$ouse)it$out e7a#erbating geo"oliti#al as$"oints, such as =aiwan% it ismore diE#ult to assume t$at t$e *+ )ill renoun#e itsindis"ensable8 leaders$i" and ste" do)n from its military "reeminen#e. ggressive e)*ansion and intervention is dee*ly rooted in thedevelo*ment and maintenance of the US Bm*ire. [0\ oreover, as one studyof US2China dynamics *oints out, %it is more di>cult for the leaders of adeclining hegemon to acce*t the reality or *ros*ect of their countrysdiminished inIuence and status. [\< &ne must turn, therefore, to *riorhistorical e)am*les of the conIicts between rising and declining hegemons orcom*eting hegemons in order to *rovide more conte)t to the *resent andfuture conIict between the U.S. and China. +n Paul ?ennedys recounting ofthe growing antagonism between Bngland and "ermany leading u* to KK+,geo*olitical conIicts and military im*eratives *layed a signiGcant, if notsolely determining, role in their eventual clash. [1\ =he history of the ColdKar was re*lete with geo*olitical conIicts that were *ro)y or surrogatebattles between the U.S. and $ussia. [9\ Perha*s, as in the case of the ColdKar, containment will be the *referred strategy of the U.S. and direct militaryconIict will not occur. &n the other hand, the Soviet Union was never an


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economic threat to the U.S., nor was the U.S. in the dire circumstances ofim*erial overstretch.

I:+>R( CKI:A *+ 4AR IMPAC(

4e $ave a moral obligation to "rovide food to all% even ift$at leads to e7tin#tion'4atson , ($ichard, Professor of Philoso*hy at Kashington University,Korld Munger and oral &bligation, *. 006007=hese arguments are morally s*urious. =hat food su>cient for well6nourished survival is theeEual right of every human individual or nation is a s*eciGcation of the higher *rinci*le thateveryone has eEual right to the necessities of life. =he moral stress of the *rinci*le of eEuity is*rimarily on eEual sharing, and only secondarily on what is being shared. =he higher moral

*rinci*le is of human equity per se. ConseEuently, t$e moral a#tion is todistribute all food equally% )$atever t$e #onsequen#es' ($is ist$e $ard line a**arently drawn by such moralists as +mmanuel ?ant and Doam ChomsAyFbutthen, morality is hard. ($e #on#lusion may beunreasonable (im"ra#ti#al andirrationalin conventional terms, but it is obviously moral. Dor should anyone*ur*ort sur*rise; it has always been understood that the #laims of moralityFif taAenseriouslyFsu"ersede t$ose of #oni#ting reason' One may even $ave tosa#ri#e one&s life or one&s nation to be moral in situations )$ere "ra#ti#albe$avior )ould "reserve it. 'or e)am*le, if a *risoner of war undergoing torture is to be a(*erha*s dead *atriot even when reason tells him that collaboration will hurt no one, he

remains silent. Similarly, if one is to be moral, one distributes available foodineEual shares (even if everyone t$en dies. =hat an action is necessary to save oneslife is no e)cuse for behaving un*atriotically or immorally if one wishes to be a *atriot or moral.Do *rinci*le of morality absolves one of behaving immorally sim*ly to save ones life or nation.=here is a strict analogy here between adhering to moral *rinci*les for the saAe of being moral,

and adhering to Christian *rinci*les for the saAe of being Christian. =he moral world contains*its and lions, but one looAs always to the highest light. =he ultimate test always harAs to the

highest *rinci*leFrecant or dieFand it is "at$eti# to "rofess morality if onequits )$en t$e going gets roug$.+ have *ut aside many Euestions of detailFsuch as themechanical *roblems of distributing foodFbecause detail does not alter the starA conclusion. +f every human life is eEualin value, then the eEual distribution of the necessities of life is an e)tremely high, if not the highest, moral duty. +t is atleast high enough to override the e)cuse that by doing it one would lose ones life. ut many *eo*le cannot acce*t theview that one must distribute eEually even in f the nation colla*ses or all *eo*le die. +f everyone dies, then there will beno realm of morality. Practically s*eaAing, sheer survival comes Grst. &ne can adhere to the *rinci*le of eEuity only if onee)ists. So it is rational to su**ose that the *rinci*le of survival is morally higher than the *rinci*le of eEuity. nd thoughone might not be able to argue for uneEual distribution of food to save a nationFfor nations can come and goFone mightwell argue that uneEual distribution is necessary for the survival of the human s*ecies. =hat is, some large grou*Fsay

one6third of *resent world *o*ulationFshould be at least well6nourished for human survival. Mowever, from anindividual stand"oint% t$e $uman s"e#ies0like t$e nation0is of nomoral relevan#e' 'rom a naturalistic stand*oint, survival does come Grst; from a

moralisti# stand"oint0as indicated aboveFsurvival may $ave to besa#ri#ed' In t$e milieu of morality% it is immaterial )$et$er or nott$e $uman s"e#ies survivesas a result of individual behavior.

2ifting t$e embargo )ill restore t$e o) of goods andim"rove living #onditions in Cuba'


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Franks% +out$ Ameri#an #orres"ondent for Reuters% =31=(JeO, %Cuba says ending US embargo would hel* both countries, Se*tember/, &nline: htt*:22www.reuters.com2article2/02/72/2us6cuba6usa6embargo6idUS$BJ08"/0/7/

;ot$ t$e *nited +tates and Cuba )ould benet if 4as$ington )ould

lift its longstanding trade embargo against t$e island% but *'+'President ;ara#k Obama $as toug$ened t$e san#tions sin#e takingoE#e in =33L, a to* Cuban o>cial said on =hursday.< ($e embargo, fullyin *lace since 07-, $as done U135 billion in damage to t$e Cubae#onomy, but also has violated the constitutional rights of mericans andmade a marAet of 00 million *eo*le oO limits to U.S. com*anies, 'oreigninister runo $odrigue@ told re*orters.< S($e blo#kade is% )it$outdoubt% t$e "rin#i"al #ause of t$e e#onomi# "roblems of our #ountryand t$e essential obsta#le for our! develo"ment,V he said, usingCubaRs term for the embargo.< V($e blo#kade "rovokes suBering%s$ortages% diE#ulties t$at rea#$ ea#$ Cuban family% ea#$ Cuban#$ild,V $odrigue@ said.< Me s*oAe at a *ress conference that Cuba stages

each year ahead of what has become an annual vote in the United Dations ona resolution condemning the embargo. =he vote is e)*ected to taAe *lacene)t month.< #ast year, 0- countries voted for the resolution, while only theUnited States and +srael su**orted the embargo, $odrigue@ said.< 2iftingt$e embargo )ould im"rove t$e image of t$e *nited +tates aroundt$e )orld% he said, adding t$at it )ould also end )$at $e #alled aSmassive% agrant and systemati# violation of $uman rig$ts'S


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Advantage =

($e demo#ra#y A#t of 1LL= and =33L a#ts nonuniquesyour -A&s but is #urrently insuE#ient to solve for t$e IC(infrastru#ture #urrently neededPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published


=here is an alternative a**roach to resolving this dilemma. nother longstanding U.S. *olicy goal,

articulated both rhetorically andin su#$ legislation as t$e Cuban -emo#ra#y A#tof 1LL=, U.S.C. -//0, is to su""ort t$e Cuban "eo"le in t$eir dailystruggles to #o"e )it$ t$e de"rivations of life in a #losedaut$oritarian regime''acilitating contact within families is certainly one way to ease the strainof se*aration among loved ones, both on and oO the island.(o t$at end% *'+' la) allo)s%inter alia, t$e saleand donations of food, the e)*ort of medicines and medical su**lies, and t$e"rovision of tele#ommuni#ations fa#ilities in su#$ quantity and ofsu#$ quality as may be ne#essary to "rovide eE#ient and adequatetele#ommuni#ations servi#es bet)een t$e *nited +tates and Cuba'8 U.S.C. -//9. +n other words, Congress $as already aut$ori9ed transa#tionst$at "ermit t$e kind of eE#ient and adequate8 IC( servi#es t$at )etake for granted today. =aAen from this *ers*ective, and given the telecommunicationsrevolution since the ct was *assed, it is #lear t$at *'+' "oli#y s$ould dramati#allye7"and t$e availability of modern information and #ommuni#ationservi#es to t$e Cuban "eo"le' ($e Obama administration #an su""ortt$e Cuban "eo"le&s basi# quality of life and t$eir rig$t to informationby re)riting its regulations to allo) t$e sale of all ty"es of IC(equi"ment and "ermit *'+' investments in IC(% in#luding mobiledevi#es and ber o"ti# #ables redu#ing t$e red ta"e of #aseby#aseli#ensing and lifting restri#tions% es"e#ially on nan#ialtransa#tions% t$at limit #onsumer s"ending on IC( and t$e ability ofordinary Cubans to engage in e#ommer#e% t$us $el"ing to lessenindividual #iti9ens& de"enden#y on t$e state'

Cuba&s e#onomy is #olla"sing around t$em and t$ey are#linging to unsustainable "ra#ti#es' Only moderni9ing andeliminating ineE#ien#ies #an solve2eogrande and ($omas =(Killiam . #eo"rande is Professor of "overnment in the School of PublicOairs at merican University. Julie . =homas is Gnishing her Ph!


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dissertation at the School of Public Oairs, merican University. CubaRs ^uestfor Bconomic +nde*endence Published ay //htt*:22www.Hstor.org2stable215857 . ccessed 520201 CSmith

Kaving nally es#a"ed de"enden#y on sugar% Cuba runs some risk ofbe#oming de"endent on tourism'=he tourist sector has been by far the fastest growingsector in the 077/s, *aying for an ever6increasing share of im*orts. ;ut )$et$er tourism"rovides a viable foundation for develo"ment in t$e long term isdebatable' It is not a $ig$ valueadded business and fails to e7"loitCubaHs "rin#i"al #om"arative advantageover its Caribbean and Central mericanneighbours 6 a )elledu#ated and skilled )ork for#e'oreover, as t$egro)ing tourist se#tor attra#ts )orkers into even marginal Nobsbe#ause it oBers a #$an#e to earn dollars% it is #orroding t$e"o"ulationHs in#entive to gain $ig$er edu#ation, thereby de*reciating the islandRshuman ca*ital. 'rom 077/ to 077 enrolment in higher education fell 8 *er cent.- Foreigninvestment and remittan#es $ave be#ome CubaHs ne) sour#e ofe7ternal #a"ital, substituting for Soviet economic assistance. +nvestment has grown as thegovernment has tried to create a more hos*itable business climate, but t$e results $ave

been modest%*artlybe#ause of #ontinuing "oliti#al risk fa#tors and*artly be#ause of 4as$ingtonHs aggressive eBorts to restri#t #a"italo)sthrough both legislation and di*lomacy. efore Cuba can gain access to signiGcant Gnancingthrough international loans it must still Gnd some solution to its international debt *roblem.

Remittan#es $ave been t$e largestand fastest gro)ing sour#e ofe7ternal #a"ital o)sto the island 6 a circumstance by no means uniEue to Cuba (remittances*lay a crucial role in the e)ican, Dicaraguan, Salvadoran and !ominican economies, as well. ;ut t$eCuban #ase is ironi# be#ause t$e sour#e of t$is #a"ital is a CubanAmeri#an #ommunity t$at remains im"la#ably $ostile to t$e Cubanregime'=he severe domestic *rivation of the mid6077os, re*lete with food shortages and malnutrition,has now *assed, although consum*tion remains far below what it was in 077. ($e limitedmarket reformsintroduced since 0771 $ave su##essfully stabilised t$e

e#onomy.5 ,oing for)ard% $o)ever% t$e issue is )$et$er t$egovernment )ill be able to maintain e#onomi# gro)t$while strictly limitingany further intrusion of marAet mechanisms, or will be forced by circumstances to e)tend them, its *olitical

anti*athy notwithstanding. ($e state se#tor of t$e e#onomy remains $ig$lyineE#ient% #onstituting a serious drag on gro)t$. +f the government continuessubsidising un*roGtable enter*rises it will be very di>cult to control the Gscal deGcit. A large and"ersistent s#al de#it(covered by e)*anding the *eso money su**ly )ill #ause alongterm deterioration of t$e "esodollar e7#$ange rate%aggravating t$e so#ial tensions and e#onomi# distortions t$at $avealready been #reated by CubaHs monetary dualism' ($us t$e statusquo seems untenable in t$e long run

Cuban instability #olla"se #auses 2atin Ameri#aninstability and terror atta#ks,orrell% 2ieutenant Colonel% =33(=im, %CU: =MB DBQ= UDD=+C+P=B! D=+C+P=B! S=$=B"+C C$+S+S3arch 0, &nline: htt*:22www.dtic.mil2cgi6bin2"et=$!oc3!4!911/59
http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074


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$egardless of the succession, under t$e #urrent *'+' "oli#y% Cuba&s "roblems ofa "ost Castro transformation only )orsen ' In addition to Cubans ont$e island% t$ere )ill be t$ose in e7ile )$o )ill return #laimingaut$ority'nd t$ere are remnants of t$e dissident #ommunity )it$inCuba )$o )ill attem"t to e7er#ise similar aut$ority' A "o)er va#uumor absen#e of order )ill #reate t$e #onditions for instability and #ivil

)ar. Khether Raul or anot$er su##essorfrom within the current government can hold*ower is debatable. Mowever, that individual )ill nonet$eless e7tend t$e #urrent"oli#ies for an indenite "eriod% )$i#$ )ill only #om"ound t$e Cubansituation' 4$en Cuba nally #olla"ses anar#$y is a strong "ossibilityif t$e *'+' maintains t$e )ait and see8 a""roa#$ ' ($e *'+' t$enmust deal )it$ an unstable #ountry L3 miles oB its #oast . +n the midst ofthis chaos, t$ousands )ill ee t$e island'!uring the ariel boatlift in 07/ 08,/// Iedthe island.- Many )ere #riminals t$is time t$e number #ould be several$undred t$ousand eeing to t$e *'+'% #reat ing a refugee #risis.


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im*orts of liEueGed natural gas (#D", are vulnerable targets. Unfortunately, as e)*erience has shown in

frica, the iddle Bast, and #atin merica, terrorists are likely to strike at *'+' and>uro"ean interests in Caribbean #ountries ' +e#urity issues be#omeeven more #riti#al )$en one #onsiders t$e "ossible use of Caribbean#ountries by terrorists as bases from )$i#$ to atta#k t$e *nited+tates. An airliner $iNa#ked after de"arture from an air"ort in t$e

nort$ern Caribbean or t$e ;a$amas #an be ying over +out$ Floridain less t$an an $our ' (errorists #an sabotage or sei9e #ontrol of a#ruise s$i" after t$e vessel leaves a Caribbean "ort. oreover, terrorists)it$ false "ass"orts and visas issued in t$e Caribbean may be ableto move easily t$roug$ "ass"ort #ontrols in Canada or t$e *nited+tates '(=o hel* counter this *ossibility, some countries have sus*ended Veconomic citi@enshi*V*rograms to ensure that Anown terrorists have not been inadvertently granted such citi@enshi*. gain,

Caribbean #ountries are as vulnerable as any)$ere else to t$e#landestine manufa#ture and de"loyment of biologi#al )ea"ons)it$in national borders.

;iologi#al )ea"on use results in e7tin#tion'+teinbruner% +enior fello) at ;rookings% 1LL(John, %iological wea*ons: a *lague u*on all houses, Foreign Policy, Kinter,ProEuest

lthough human *athogens are often lum*ed with nuclear e)*losives and lethal chemicals as *otentialwea*ons of mass destruction, there is an obvious, fundamentally im*ortant diOerence: Pathogens are

alive, wea*ons are not. :u#learand chemical )ea"ons do not re"rodu#ethemselvesanddo not inde*endently engage in ada"tive be$avior "at$ogens doboth ofthese things. =hat dece*tively sim*le observation has immense im*lications. =he use of amanufa#tured )ea"onis a singular event. ost of the damage occurs immediately. =heaftereBe#ts, whatever they may be, de#ay ra"idly over timeand distance in areasonably "redi#table manner'Bven before a nuclear warhead is detonated, for instance, it is

*ossible to estimate the e)tent of the subseEuent damage and the liAely level of radioactive fallout. Such*redictability is an essential com*onent for tactical military *lanning. =he use of a "at$ogen, bycontrast, is an e)tended *rocess whose sco*e and timing #annot be*recisely #ontrolled''ormost *otential biological agents, the *redominant drawbacA is that they would not act swiftly or decisively

enough to be an eOective wea*on. ut for a few "at$ogens6 ones most likely to $ave ade#isive eBe#t and t$ereforethe ones most likely to be #ontem"latedfor deliberately $ostile use6 the risA runs in the other direction. lethal *athogen t$at#ould eE#iently s"read from one vi#tim to anot$er )ould be #a"ableof initiating an intensifying #as#ade of disease t$a t mig$t ultimatelyt$reaten t$e entire )orld "o"ulation ' ($e 1L15 inuen9a e"idemi#demonstrated t$e "otential for a global #ontagion of t$is sortbut notnecessarily its outer limit.

IC( solves long term sustainability and innovation in CubaPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published



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A##ess to information and #ommuni#ation te#$nologies, including theinternet and mobile *hones, goes beyond t$e im"ortan#e of information as ageneral "ubli# good' >7tensive resear#$% e7"erien#e and ane#dotaleviden#e $ave demonstrated t$at #onne#tivity0t$roug$ t$e internetand t$roug$ #ell "$ones0are essential #om"onents of modernday%

longterm e#onomi# develo"ment and even $uman survival' Moderntele#ommuni#ations strengt$ens "rodu#tivity% allo)s for moreeE#ient distribution% redu#es transa#tion #osts% and lo)ers t$ebarrier to entry into t$e market% t$us e7"anding t$e e#onomi#a#tivities of #iti9ens'&ne study concluded that %an in#rease of 13 mobile"$ones "er 133 "eo"le boosts "er #a"ita ,-P gro)t$ by '6 "er#ent'8=he e)*ansion of +C= brings more than Hust economic growth, however. >viden#e $asdemonstrated a relations$i" bet)een teledensity and quality of lifeindi#ators0even #ontrolling for ,-P0su#$ as life e7"e#tan#y% lo)erinfant mortality rates% and t$e rate of formation and gro)t$ of ne)enter"rises' =he following are some of the *ositive beneGts that access to modern +C= servicescould oOer Cuban citi@ens today: 0! Im"roving t$e o) of e#onomi# and market

information? ($roug$out t$e )orld #onne#tivity $as $ad a #riti#alleveling eBe#t for small "rodu#ersFfrom Gshermen to small manufacturersF#uttingout middle men and allo)ing t$em to seek t$e best "ri#es for t$eir"rodu#ts'=his information is also im"ortant for linking to global markets' A4orld ;ank survey of 6 develo"ed and develo"ing #ountries founda signi#ant link bet)een Internet a##ess and trade gro)t$0with thegreatest beneGts accruing to develo*ing countries with the weaAest trade linAs.1 =! >7"andinga##ess to nan#es and #redit: oda*hone and other mobile "$one #om"anies$ave develo"ed an array of a""li#ations t$at $ave e7"anded bankinga##ess t$roug$ mobile banking' +u#$ innovations are "arti#ularly"o)erful for Cubans )$o #ould #on#eivably re#eive remittan#es andot$er nan#ial transa#tions t$roug$ mobile "$ones if t$e "ro"erte#$nology and infrastru#ture )ere in "la#e'1 !irectly and indirectly generatinga modernday worAforce that can com*ete in todays information6driven economy: ;roadbaseda##ess to IC( is essential to #om"eting in today&s global informationand kno)ledgebased e#onomy by allo)ing #ommunities and "rivateindividualsF inde*endent of the stateFto gain sAills, channels and ca*acity. ($e lo)barriers to entry ensure t$at even t$e "oor and rural se#tors of t$e"o"ulation #an gain easy a##ess. 9 Providing #$annels of#ommuni#ation to avert $umanitarian disastersand assist in reconstructioneOorts: ($e International Committee of t$e Red Cross $as develo"ed aneBe#tive strategy using mobile "$ones not only to )arn #iti9ens ofim"ending natural disasters% but also to $el" guide t$em to safetyand raise and deliver funds and $umanitarian assistan#e after t$etragedy "asses'G ($is is "arti#ularly relevant in $urri#ane"roneCuba% )$ere su#$ systems #ould $el" avert $uman loss if IC(servi#es )ere "la#ed in t$e $ands of #iti9ens. =he long6term economic *otential ofthe internet was forcefully articulated by Secretary of State Millary Clinton last January: %]we Anow fromlong e)*erience that *romoting social and economic develo*ment in countries where *eo*le lacA access toAnowledge, marAets, ca*ital, and o**ortunity can be frustrating and sometimes futile worA. +n this conte)t,

the internet can serve as a great eEuali@er. ;y "roviding "eo"le )it$ a##ess tokno)ledge and "otential markets% net)orks #an #reate o""ortunities)$ere none e7ist'8 >ven in#remental #$anges in e7"anding


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#onne#tivity and a##ess to IC( #ould go a long )ay to)ard alleviatingt$e e#onomi# struggles and $ealt$ and $uman risks in$erent inliving under a #losed% aut$oritarian regime. +ronically, $o)ever% #urrent*'+' regulations restri#t t$e very a##ess ne#essary to make t$is$a""en' >7"anding t$e o""ortunity for *'+' tele#oms investors and#om"anies to "rovide #ell "$one and internet servi#e to t$e island

)ill $el" ensure t$at Cuban #iti9ens "ossess t$e tools to be#ome"rodu#tive e#onomi# #iti9ensonce the shacAles of *olitical and economic state control areremoved. (o say t$is is not to deny or minimi9e t$e very real #ontrolst$at t$e Cuban government "la#es on its o)n #iti9ens& a##ess to t$einternet' ;ut e7"anding #iti9ens& a##ess to even t$e mostrudimentary te#$nology in Cuba )ould be a giant ste" for)ard ine#onomi#ally em"o)ering a ne)% inde"endent generation of Cuban#iti9ens'

Cuban embargo fails Q strains international relations and"ro"s u" Cuba&s #ommunist regime,oods"eed 3L(Peter "oods*eed, Dational Post, % Cuban evolution; &bamas oOer of new beginning winning su**ort ofhardened e)iles, *ril 0 //7, #e)is De)is, ccessed July 0, /01, J!


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S($e last 3 years of our embargo against Cuba $ave "roven t$atunilateral san#tions do not )ork%S said Myron ;rilliant% a senior vi#e"resident oft$e *' +' C$amber of Commer#e' SRat$er t$an en#ouraging Cuba todemo#rati9e% t$e embargo a#tually $el"ed "ro" u" a Communistregime'SJ S($e "oli#y of seeking to isolate Cuba% rat$er t$ana#$ieving its obNe#tive% $as #ontributed to undermining t$e )ell

being of t$e Cuban "eo"le and to eroding *' +' inuen#e in Cuba and2atin Ameri#a%S says a re#ent study of *' +'Cuban relations by t$e 4as$ingtonbased;rookings Institution'JSIt $as reinfor#ed t$e Cuban governmentHs "o)erover its #iti9ens by in#reasing t$eir de"enden#e on it for everyas"e#t of t$eir liveli$ood%S t$e re"ort says' S;y slo)ing t$e o) of ideasand information% t$e *nited +tates $as un)ittingly $el"ed Cubanstate se#urity delay CubaHs "oliti#al and e#onomi# evolution to)ard amore o"en and re"resentative government'SJ($e blo#kade $as also)ar"ed "ubli# "er#e"tions of *' +' "oli#y overseas'J2ast fall% )$en t$e*nited :ations ,eneral Assembly $eld its 15t$ annual vote againstt$e *' +' blo#kade of Cuba% 15 #ountries voted against t$e *' +'"oli#y% )$ile Nust t$ree t$e *nited +tates% Israel and Palau in t$e +out$ Pa#i#

voted in favour of t$e embargo'JFor t$e time being% Cuba remains t$eonly #ountry in t$e )orld t$at is oB limits to t$e vast maNority ofAmeri#ans' SCubanAmeri#an travel% )$ile $umane% still "uts t$emaNority of Ameri#ans in t$e oddest "oliti#al "osition%S says +ara$+te"$ens% dire#tor of t$e Center for -emo#ra#y in t$e Ameri#as' S($eyHre able to visit(e$ran% Pyongyang% .$artoum and -amas#us% )it$out begging for ali#en#e% but unable to visit Kavana% even if t$eir "resen#e in Cuba)ould add information and vibran#y and #ontribute to o"enness asAmeri#an travelers so often do'S

($e "resen#e of internet is dire#tly #orrelated )it$in#reased demo#rati# "oliti#al engagement4est% 13(!arrell . Kest Kashington, !.C.: rooAings +nstitution. !S*ace !igitallibrary, "overnance Studies at rooAings, n +nternational #ooA at Migh6S*eedroadband Published 'ebruary /0/,htt*:22ds*ace.cigilibrary.org2Hs*ui2bitstream20198-57258/1202n/+nternational/#ooA/at/Migh6S*eed/roadband.*df30,ccessed -60160(CSmith

RoNas and PuigiAbril(//7 e7amine t$e im"a#t of digital#ommuni#ation te#$nologies on "oliti#al mobili9ation and #ivi#"arti#i"ation. Using data from a random *ublic o*inion sam*le of ColombiaRs adult urban

*o*ulation, t$ese aut$ors do#ument $o)broadband Internet and mobile"$ones aid e7"ressive "arti#i"ation8 in online "rotests. =hey undertooA asurvey of online information usage and found a relations$i" bet)een digitalinformation a#quisition and "oliti#al engagement' ($ose )$o soug$tinformation from t$e Internet )ere more "oliti#ally a#tive ande7"ressive t$an t$ose )$o )ere not' ($ey #on#lude t$at indevelo"ing so#ieties )it$ $ig$ levels of "oliti#al% e#onomi#% andso#ial #oni#t% digital #ommuni#ations re"resent a valuable "at$)ayfor demo#rati# "oliti#al engagement'
http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/27503/1/An%20International%20Look%20at%20High-Speed%20Broadband.pdf?1http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/27503/1/An%20International%20Look%20at%20High-Speed%20Broadband.pdf?1http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/27503/1/An%20International%20Look%20at%20High-Speed%20Broadband.pdf?1http://dspace.cigilibrary.org/jspui/bitstream/123456789/27503/1/An%20International%20Look%20at%20High-Speed%20Broadband.pdf?1


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[insert democracy im*acts\


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+olven#y

Castro )ill allo) *+ salesKe needs $ard #urren#yout)eig$s "oliti#al #on#ernsPi##one et all 13(=ed Piccone, senior fellow and de*uty director for 'oreign Policy at rooAingsridging Cubas Communication !ivide: Mow U.S. Policy Can Mel* Published


Ke Anow t$ere is a strong #orrelation bet)een a##ess to IC( ande#onomi# gro)t$ and develo"ment' Conversely% t$e largeinvestments required for IC( infrastru#ture )ill only take "la#e )$ent$ere is a revenue model to su""ort t$e investment and "rovideinvestors )it$ marketbased rates of return' In t$e #ase of Cuba% t$isbe#ame #lear )it$ #ellular "$ones' As little as ve years ago% t$ere)ere Nust a fe) t$ousand mobile "$ones in Cuba, almost all of them in thehands of government o>cials, foreigners and members of the elite. Since //, )$en PresidentRaul Castro announ#ed t$e lifting of t$e ban on #ell "$ones% t$enumberof cell *hones is ra"idly a""roa#$ing one million' ($e reason issim"le0#ell "$one revenues $ave be#ome an im"ortant sour#e of$ard #urren#y' ($e e#onomi# model out)eig$ed "oliti#al #on#erns' +t isunreasonable to ho*e for the develo*ment of other +C=s, such as the internet and social media, without

economic models to maAe them worA. =hus, t$e #$allenge for *'+' "oli#ymakers#onsistsnot only in eOecting targeted reforms to its 8/6year old embargo, but in broadly

lifting all restri#tions t$at $inder t$e develo"ment of an e#onomi#model #a"able of sustaining t$e requisite investments in IC( inCuba% and t$e #orres"onding #onsumer demand for t$e servi#es' A"ie#emeal a""roa#$ )ill sim"ly not do t$e Nob'


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>M;AR,O Q +*;+(A:(IA22V (

Plan )ould substantially in#rease tradeolly 5 Curtis . Jolly and Menry =hom*son, uburn Univ, Southern Bconomics andusiness Journal (// 671'ree =rade with Cuba: =he BOects of a #ifted Bmbargo in labamahtt*:22www.auburn.edu2_thom*h02simcuba.*df

bstract.=rade with Cuba will *rovide e)*ort and investment o**ortunities, andultimatelysomecom*etitionfor labama. Cuba is a large neighbor with

substantial economic *otential that will *rovide trading o**ortunities missing

with the embargo.=he *resent *a*er e)amines the *otential im*actsoflifting theonlabama at theaggregatelevelof manufacturing, services, and naturalresourcesectors.=he eOects on out*utlevels, wages, ca*ital returns, and energy*rices aree)amined in asimulatedgeneral eEuilibrium model of *roduction.

>mbargo restri#tions are substantial;etan#ourt 1


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htt*:22www.forbes.com2sites2reals*in2/012/020-2its6time6for6the6u6s6to6end6its6senseless6embargo6of6cuba2

Net, estimates of the sanctions annual cost to the U.S. economy range from T0.to T1.- billion, according to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce. $estrictions on tradedis*ro*ortionately aOect U.S. small businesses who lacA the trans*ortation andGnancial infrastructure to sAirt the embargo. =hese restrictions translate into real

reductions in income and em*loyment for mericans in states liAe 'lorida, wherethe unem*loyment rate currently stands at .0 *ercent.

*+ e7"orts )ould substantially in#reaseCo"eland 13 Cassandra Co*eland, &glethor*e University and Menry

=hom*son, uburn University Southern Bconomics and usiness Journal ,/0/ =MB CUD B$"& D! S&U=MBS=B$D "$+CU#=U$#BQP&$=S

= he US Southeast stands to increase agricultural e)*orts to Cuba

substantially with a lifted embargo. =he *resent *a*er estimates there will

be noticeable gains from trade in Southeastern agricultural e)*ort marAets . brief review of Cuban trade and economic history motivates assum*tions of the

model.=he model calibrates a novel a**lication of linear e)cess su**ly anddemand to observe d *rices, out*uts, US e)*orts, Cuban im*orts, and estimate d*rice elasticities in the literature .

cuba embargo affirmative - ddi 2013 ss

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