Concentration Terminology

D I S T R I B U T I O NRELATIVELY EVENRELATIVELY UNEVEN (= Concentration)SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION"Dispersion""Localization"INDUSTRIAL DISTRIBUTION"Diversification""Specialization"

Table #1 Localization of an Industry

The higher the coefficient, the greater the localization (spatial concentration) of the industry.

REGIONSPERCENT OF NATIONAL TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OF FOCAL INDUSTRY IN REGION (A-D)PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN REGION (A-D)DIFFERENCE IN RELATIVE REGIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN FOCAL INDUSTRY & ALL MANUFACTURING ACTIVITIESLOCATION QUOTIENT OF FOCAL INDUSTRY IN RESPECTIVE REGIONSA 1535-20.43B3530+51.17C3020+101.5D2015+51.33

Sum100%100%-20 +20(1.0)

Table #2 Specialization of a Region

The higher the coefficient, the greater the regional specialization.

INDUSTRIESPERCENT OF TOTAL (REGIONAL) EMPLOYMENT IN FOCAL REGION IN INDUSTRIES (A-D)PERCENT OF TOTAL U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT IN INDUSTRIES (A-D)DIFFERENCE BETWEEN REGIONAL & NATIONAL EMPLOYMENT IN 4 INDUSTRIESLOCATION QUOTIENTS OF THE INDUSTRIES IN FOCAL REGIONA 1535-20.43B3530+51.17C3020+101.5D2015+51.33

Sum100%100%-20 +20(1.0)

REGIONAL ANALYSIS

TIME - SPACE(INTRA-) REGIONALINTER-REGIONALSPATIAL INTERACTIONAGGREGATESF L O W SAGGREGATE COMPARISONSF L O W SSTATIC / CROSSECTIONALGDP/GRPRegional Input-OutputLocation QuotientInterregional Input-OutputGravity Model Network AnalysisCOMPARATIVE STATIC ANALYSISRegional MultipliersInterregional MultipliersGravity-based Multipliers (Lowry)COMPARATIVE CROSSECTIONAL ANALYSISRegional Rates of ChangeShift & Share AnalysisMULTI-PERIOD ANALYSISRegional Cohort AnalysisInter-Regional Cohort Migration AnalysisStochastic Spatial ModelsDYNAMIC ANALYSISDiffusion Models

Location Quetiont (L.Q.)Metode Location Quetiont (L.Q.) merupakan metode untuk membandingkan potensi antar sektor dan antar daerah. Adapun rumus L.Q. yang digunakan sebagai berikut : Pi.j ---------- P.jL.Q. = ------------------ Pi. ----------- P.Keterangan :L.Q.= nilai Location QuetiontPi.j= nilai skala potensi sektor/komoditas i di daerah j P.j= nilai skala potensi seluruh sektor/komoditas di daerah jPi.= nilai skala potensi sektor/komoditas i di seluruh daerahP.= nilai skala potensi seluruh sektor/komoditas di seluruh daerah.L.Q. > 1 = Sektor/Komoditas UnggulanL.Q. < 1 = Sektor/Komoditas Non Unggulan

Analisis Shift and Share Untuk mengetahui kinerja sektor-sektor pembangunan di suatu daerah dilakukan analisis Shift and Share.Menganalisis perubahan berbagai indikator kegiatan ekonomi (produksi/tenaga kerja) pada dua titik waktu pada suatu wilayah. Kriteria yang digunakan meliputi pertumbuhan nasional, pertumbuhan proposional, dan pertumbuhan pangsa wilayah. Selanjutnya dengan pendekatan empat dimensi/kuadran dapat ditentukan kinerja masing-masing sektor pada setiap kecamatan yang dikategorikan menjadi unggul, agak unggul, agak mundur, dan mundur.

Shift and ShareGrowth Rate = (Product T1/Product T0)

The Proporsional Shift formula is very simply:

Proporsional Shift =

Local Growth Rate for Sector I for Period X

-

Regional Growth Rate for Sektor I for Period X

The Differential Share formula is very simply:

Differential Share =

Regional Growth Rate for Sector I for Period X

-

Regional Growth Rate for Total Sector for Period X

Shift and Share

Analisis ini dipergunakan untuk mengetahui kinerja perekonomian daerah terhadap pertumbuhannya selama suatu periode tertentu. Kombinasi dari hasil perhitungan analisis shift dan share akan menghasilkan indikator-indikator sebagai berikut :

Nilai proporsional shift dan differential share-nya positif, maka sektor ini dianggap mempunyai peranan penting dalam perekonomian wilayah internal dan juga terhadap perekonomian wilayah yang lebih luas. (Unggul)

Nilai proporsional shift positif dan nilai differential share-nya negative, maka sektor ini hanya meningkatkan pada sistem perekonomian yang lebih luas . (Agak Unggul)

Nilai proporsional shift negative dan nilai differential share positif, maka sektor ini hanya dapat meningkatkan peranannya dalam wilayah internal, tetapi tidak dapat meningkatkan perekonomian yang lebih luas (kabupaten). (Agak Mundur)

Nilai proporsional shift dan differential share negative, maka sektor yang bersangkutan tidak mempunyai peranan dalam meningkatkan perekonomian internal ataupun perekonomian wilayah yang lebih luas. (Mundur)

proporsional shift differential share ++--Pendekatan Empat Dimensi/KuadranUnggulAgak MundurAgak UnggulMundur

Penggandaan Basis Perubahan pada total tenaga kerjaPenggadaan Basis = Perubahan pada tenaga kerja basis

Three Basic Types of Interaction ModelsijGeneral Formulation:VWTijSijGravity Modelij3520Sij = 8Tij = 10.9Tji = 10.9Potential Modelijkl2015353561.00.62.2Ti = 3.8Retail Modelijk15403576Bij = 4.9Bik = 2.8

Gravity Models(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/systems/gravity.html)

Interaction (I) between i and j is a function of repulsive forces (R) at i and attractive forces (A) at j, and an inverse function of the friction/distance (D) between i and j

Iij = the interaction volume from i to jRi = a parameter representing (repulsive) factors which are associated with "leaving" i (such as outmigration)Aj = a parameter representing (attractive) factors related to going to j (such as inmigration)Dij = the distance between i and j

Iij = f (Ri, Aj) ----------- f (Dij)

The most basic formulation of the gravity model simply substitutes the populations at i and j for the R and A factors. P = Population of i & jk & b = constants

Iij = k Pi Pj-------Dijb

X2,000,000YZW800 km800 km400 km2,000,0001,000,000k = 0.00001(people per week)2,000,000Weight (P)Distance (D)Constant (k)Centroid (i)Interaction (T)Application of an Elementary Spatial Interaction Equation Elementary Formulation

WXYZTiW100,000100,000X100,00050,00025,000175,000Y50,00050,000Z25,00025,000Tj100,000175,00050,00025,000350,000

Application of a Simple Spatial Interaction EquationX2,000,000YZW800 km800 km400 km2,000,0001,000,000k = 0.00001(people per week)2,000,000Weight (P)Distance (D)Constant (k)Centroid (i)Interaction (T)Simple FormulationExponent = 0.95 = 1.05 = 1.25 = 1.0 = 0.95 = 1.2 = 0.4 = 1.03 = 0.96

WXYZTiW71,37871,378X6,0592,20318,263Y19,42019,420Z153,893153,893Tj6,059244,6922,2031252,954

Lowry Migration Model

Migration from i to j is directly related to high wages at j, low relative unemployment at j and a large civilian labor force at either origin and/or destination. It is inversely related to high wages at i, low unemployment at i and increasing distance between i and j.

Mij = k

[

Ui--------Uj

x

Wj--------Wi

x

Li Lj----------Dij

]

eij

M = number of migrants L = persons in labor force U = unemployment in % W = hourly wage in manufacturing D = airline distance k = gravitational constant e = error term

Source: Ira Lowry, Migration and Metropolitan Growth: Two Analytical Models (1966)

Economic Base Concept & Analysis(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/350/econbase.html)

What are "basic" and "non-basic" activities?

Basic:

Exports (incl. Export Services, Tourism)

Investments: Housing, Business etc.

Government Expenditures (Gov. Investments, Current Operations),

Transfer Payments

= "exogenous" to our model

"Non-Basic": household-induced, local-service oriented activities = "endogenous" to our model

Export Base Multiplier Relationships and Exercise(http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/systems/econbase.html)

Export Environments (e.g.: Aerospace & Software) Exporting Sectors (Basic)HouseholdsLocal Sectors (Non-Basic)IndirectDirectDirectIndirectBasic HhsNon-Basic HhsDirectIndirectAirbus Domestic & Foreign Air TravelPolitical Instabilities World-Wide Computer Use Domestic & Foreign AirlinesPentagonDirect & Hardware- Dependent Software DemandDirect Boeing or Microsoft ExportsLocal Subcontractor & SuppliersHouseholds of Boeing, Microsoft & Subcontractor EmployeesHouseholds of Local service (Non-Basic) or Employees Local Shopping Centers and Retail Stores, Restaurants, Education, Health Care,Suppliers of Non-Basic Activities and other Linked Activities "Leakages" Imports Federal Taxes Capital Outflows Imported Parts and Materials Savings E-Commerce Purchases Taxes Tourism Insurance Premiums other PaymentsImports by Retailers (Cars from Detroit or Stuttgart)Imported Parts and Materials by Local Sector Producers

Employment Multipliers (Economic Base) (http://faculty.washington.edu/krumme/207/development/basemploy.html)

The simple economic base (employment) multiplier is presented in three different forms, respectively emphasizing different components and roles of the multiplier Total Employment (T) = Basic Employment (B) + Nonbasic Employment (N) Multiplier Effect (ME) = Nonbasic Employment generated (by Basic employment) OR: Basic employment multiplied by Nonbasic employment per basic employee OR: Basic Employment x Multiplier minus Basic Employment OR: Basic Employment x (Multiplier - 1)

Multiplier Formulation #1

T = B + N

T

B

=

B+N

B

T =

B (B + N)

B

T = B

T

B

M1 =

T

B

(Multiplier: Total employment generated per basic employee)

Multiplier Formulation #2

T

T

T

1

1

1

=

=

=

=

B

B

T

T-N

T

T

T

-

N

T

1 -

N

T

1

M2

=

1 -

N

T

Denominator: "leakage coefficient" (the larger this coefficient, the smaller the multiplier)

N/T = "retention coefficient" (the larger this coefficient, the larger the multiplier). This coefficient is the equivalent of the "propensity to consume locally" (pcl) x "income generated per local consumption dollar" (iclcs) in the local income multiplier.

Multiplier Formulation #3

T = B + ME

T = B + B

N

B

T = B (1 +

N

B

)

M3 = (1 +

N

B

)

[In this formulation, the emphasis is on the N/B ratio and the role of the "1" in multipliers (namely to isolate and preserve the basic component in the resulting total employment)]

Multiplier EffectME = Multiplier EffectB = Basic Employment N = Nonbasic Employment

ME = B

N

B

Economic Base Concept: Income & Employment Multipliers

pcl

=

.8

(Propensity to consume locally)

icles

=

.25

(Income created by local consumption sales (per $ of sales)

Multiplier

=

1---------------1 - .8 x .25

=

1-----.8

= 1.25

Employment Multiplier:Definitions:"The employment multiplier associated with a particular regional economic stimulus is designed to yield an estimate of the total employment attributable to the stimulus per job or man-year of employment directly created." [Davis, Regional Economic Impact Analysis and Project Evaluation, 1990, p.37] The (basic/non-basic) employment "multiplier is equal to total (or increase in) employment in both basic and service activities divided by total (or increase in) basic employment." [Isard, Methods of Regional Analysis, 1960, p.190]

Where: T = Total Employment B = Basic Employment N = Nonbasic Employment

(1)

T

=

B + N

(2)

B

=

T - N

(3)

B---T

=

T - N-------- T

(4)

B---T

=

1 - N/T

(5)

B

=

T (1 - N/T)

(6)

T

= B

(

1---------1 - N/T

)

^

|

|

MULTIPLIER

simplified further:

M =

T---B

(7)

Tt+1

= Bt+1

(

Tt ----Bt

)

(Application to forecastingnext year's total employment)

The Location Quotient & the Multiplier The location quotient (l.q.) is frequently used to estimate the economic base of a region. How will we do that? If the l.q. for a sector exceeds one, the sector is presumed to export. Thus, we take all sectors with an l.q. of above one and determine, sector by sector: (and then sum the export employment for all these sectors)

The Location Quotient & the Multiplier

Local Service Employmentin sectori

=

Total Employment in sectori -------------------------l.q. i

Export employmentfor sectori

=

Total Employmentin sectori

(

1 -

1 ----l.q.i

)

Base Multiplier Location Quotient

Movement (Flows in Space)Three General Types of Movement

Migration movement of people from one place to anotherImmigration people entering (moving into) an areaEmigration people exiting (moving out of) an area Diffusion the movement of ideas, beliefs, values, or innovations from one place to another. Spatial Interaction the level and intensity of various activities that take place among locations (Example: trade between countries).By examining a particular type of spatial interaction, functional regions can be delimited.

Interdependence :Spatial interaction: all kinds of movements or flows that involve human activity.This includes migration, commuting, telecommunication, cash flows etc.

Spatial Diffusion: the process by which things spread through space and over time.Example, disease outbreaks, political movements, fashion, architectural styles etc.Spatial diffusion does not occur in a completely random manner. Diffusion processes can be predicted and plotted.Complementarity is essential for diffusion to occur. It can be a result of physical factors or even the world economic system.

Sistem Wilayah

Methods of Intra dan Inter Regional Analysis : Dominant Analytical Questions(Sumber : Bendavid Val, 1991)

Basic Statistical CompendiumWhat are the overall economic of the regions subareas and town, and how do they compare with each other in terms of important characteristic ?

Income MeasuresWhat are the levels of different types of income in different part of region ?

Social AccountsWhat is the relationship between income levels in different parts of the region and the different prevailing production patterns, and in turn, the values of flows across the regions borders ?

Economic Composition AnalysisWhat are the relative levels on concentration or specialization in selected characteristics or activities among different parts of region, and what are the associated consequences ?

Indeks KosentrasiKecenderungan menyebar atau terkosentarsinya penduduk/aktivitas ekonomi n (Xi Yi) 1C = -------------------- 2

Xi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah iYi = Persentase Jumlah Penduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi pd Sub Wilayah in = Jumlah Sub Wilayah i

Rentang Nilai 0 100, Semakin Tinggi Semakin Terkosentrasi

Koefisien DistribusiDQ = (Yi/Xi)

DQ = Koefisien DistribusiXi = Persentase Luas Sub Wilayah IYi = Persentase Jumlah Penduduk/Aktivitas Ekonomi pd Sub Wilayah I

Semakin Tinggi Nilai DQ Semakin Terkosentrasi

Natural Resource AssessmentsWhat are the natural resources endowment of different part of the region, and what ate the associated the problems and potentials ?

Linkage InvestigationsWhat are the mayor types of linkages and their magnitudes among central places in the region ?

Flows StudiesWhat volume of selected goods flow between major points of origin and destination in the region ?

Friction AnalysisWhat are the major factors inhibiting interaction among central places in the region ?

Extended Commodity Trade System AnalysisWhat are the intraregional marketing chains of important commodities, particularly rural commodities produced for sale outside the region ?

Economic Base and Accrual AnalysisWhat is relationship between outside demand for the products of different areas in the region and economic expansion of those areas and of the region as a whole, based on simple multiplier relationships ?

Input - Output AnalysisWhat are in the interindustry linkages and their multiplier effects among different parts of the region as related to outside demand for the regions products ?

Rural Urban Exchange AnalysisWhat are the comparative rural urban income multiplication effect associated with different agricultural commodities in different parts of the region ?

Access StudiesWhat is the degree of access of the population of different parts of the region to functions provided by the regions central places, and what does this suggest about effective demand for those functions ?

Functional AnalysisWhat are the functions provided by the regions settlement system, what sorts of hierarchical networks prevail within it, and what does this suggest about effective supply of those functions ?

Keterangan : (A). Pusat Pemerintahan Kabupaten, (B) Pusat Wilayah Pembangunan, (C) Pusat Pemerintahan Kecamatan (D) Pelayanan Sosisl-Ekonomi Tingkat Kabupaten (E) Pelayanan Sosisl-Ekonomi Tingkat Kecamatan; (F) Pelayanan Sosial-Ekonomi Tingkat Desa; (G) Perdagangan; (H) Jasa; (I) Industri; (J) Pertanian Tanaman pangan; (K) Perkebunan; (L) Perikanan; (M) Peternakan; (N) Kehutanan (O) Pariwisata; (P) Jumlah Fungsi .

No

Kecamatan

Hirarki

Pusat Pelayanan

Sektor Ekonomi

P

A

B

C

D

E

F

G

H

I

J

K

L

M

N

O

1

Purworejo

I

(

(

(

9

2

Kutoarjo

I

10

3

Pituruh

II

6

4

Bagelen

II

8

5

Purwodadi

II

7

6

Butuh

III

3

7

Grabag

III

7

8

Banyuurip

III

3

9

Bener

III

6

10

Bayan

III

4

11

Gebang

IV

4

12

Ngombol

IV

4

13

Kaligesing

IV

5

14

Loano

IV

5

15

Bruno

IV

6

16

Kemiri

IV

4

Market Center StudiesWhat are the major trade functions of the regions marked centers, and how are they link through trade to other regional market centers and the rural areas of the region ?